NE Weekend Preview: 4/8-4/9

It’s that time of year, boys and girls. That time where the most important matches are happening in one region and one region only. Now that spring break is over, nothing shapes Pool-C quite like the NESCAC conference season. This weekend alone, we have six teams in four matches, all of whom still carry at least an outside shot at Pool-C. Of those six teams, five of them would likely make it into the NCAA tournament if the season ended today (sorry Tufts). As I said last week, it’s that time of year again where my NE match previews will be comin’ Vin Diesel style. Unfortunately for me (and all of us bloggers really), D3AS looks nothing like Michelle Rodriguez. I’ve got four previews to get through, so let’s get to it. #WallOf…

#9 Williams (73.58) @ #1 Middlebury (76.85), Saturday 10 A.M.

How Williams can pull off the upset: We saw in California that Williams is a very good team, their path to success is likely a doubles lead and then the middle of their lineup. Grodecki, Raghavan and Indrakanti are the strongest Ephs relative to their spots, and the Ephs have played good doubles for as long as I can remember. The most likely way for Williams to get their five points is to win #1 and #3 dubs, then take three of four points from #2-#5 singles. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Why Middlebury wins: Before remembering that Middlebury just beat Emory and CMS in back-to-back matches, before remembering that they have the most legendary Coach in DIII who won’t let his guys look past the Ephs, before remembering that the Panthers have arguably the best player in the entire country, before all of that, the reason Midd is going to win is because they are stronger where Williams is strongest. Williams plays good doubles, Midd probably plays slightly better doubles. Williams is strong at 2-4, Middlebury might (out of nowhere) have the best 2-4 in the country. It’s really tough to beat a team whose strengths are simply better versions of your strengths. We in the business call that a matchup nightmare.

What happens if Williams wins: D3AS’ weekend is ruined. The Ephs would, barring any major upset, be in the clear for Pool-C and vault up towards the top-5 in the country. Midd is still totally fine given their recent wins and it becomes more and more of a reality that the NESCAC gets 4 Pool-C teams this year. It would also drop Midd down from the NESCAC pedestal on which they currently sit so smugly.

What happens if Middlebury wins: Not a whole lot changes. Midd is now a heavy favorite to win this match, and their win wouldn’t do all that much to impact the standings. A convincing win from Midd would certainly re-kindle all the Williams doubters, but more on that later in this preview.

Key matchup(s): #1 doubles & #2 singles. Grodecki has been fantastic both in singles and doubles, and I’m really looking forward to seeing him battle my reigning POTW, Billy de Quant, at #2 singles. In addition, Grodecki and Taylor have not lost yet this spring, but they are facing arguably the best team in the region in Cuba/De Quant. It’s a match Williams probably has to have, and it should be a good one.

Prediction: Middlebury def. Williams 6-3, with Williams winning a doubles match (#1), a singles match (#3), and another singles match in a super breaker.

#7 Amherst (74.60) @ #4 Bowdoin (75.33) Saturday 1 P.M.

How Amherst can pull off the upset: This is the closest match by UTR’s Power 6, and the closest match via the eye-test. Amherst survived a scare last weekend when the escaped the hell on earth that is Tufts Indoors with a 5-4 win. Zykov has really been struggling for Herst this spring, but the young guns have been more than up to the task. It’s supposed to be on the chillier side in Maine this weekend, but dry enough that this match could conceivably be played outside. An outdoor match should be good for Herst as Bowdoin is the bigger team and would likely have a bigger home court advantage playing at their indoor club. Given how strong Herst is towards the bottom of the lineup, I don’t think they HAVE to follow the usual upset formula and take a doubles lead. They could very easily win this match by taking one doubles match and getting wins at #1 and #4-6.

Why Bowdoin wins: I’m following the format of the rest of the article here, but I’m not yet convinced that Bowdoin will win this match. It will be a statement win for either team as the NESCAC squad most likely to compete with Middlebury for the conference crown. Bowdoin does play better doubles than Herst, so their path to victory involves a doubles lead, Urken and Wolfe stomping out Marchalik and Zykov, and then either Tercek or Roddy doing what they do and bringing home the early clinch. Amherst has already played a couple very close 5-4 matches, winning last week in very difficult conditions, while Bowdoin has lost their only truly close match of the year (CMS). I think the longer this match goes on the more the Herst freshmen start to believe. A doubles lead and an early clinch would be just what the doctor ordered for the Polar Bears.

What happens if Amherst wins: This win would be vitally important to the Mammoths (how have we gotten this far into the preview and not mentioned the new mascot?) as they are still sitting behind all the other main NESCAC Pool-C competitors in the ITA rankings. Let’s remember that even though we have Amherst as a top-7 team and fringe national title contender, given their meltdown last year they have to actually earn that ranking from the ITA. This would be a chance to announce to the ITA that the Mammoths are back from the brink of extinction, and a win over Bowdoin would give Herst a mammoth sized boost in the Pool-C picture.

What happens if Bowdoin wins: It’s somewhat business as usual for the Pool-C picture, but I think it would be a huge relief for the defending champs. D3AS put it accurately in the power rankings when he said that Bowdoin is not a main part of the national title discussion at the moment. While they probably should be, the fact that they aren’t can be used for both motivation and possibly doubt. A win over a disgustingly talented team like Amherst should restore any waning confidence for the Polar Bears, and keep them as the overall top Pool-C team.

Key matchup(s): #1 singles: Tercek vs Bessette & #5 singles: Roddy vs Owens. These are the singles swing matches in my opinion. If either team gets both of these, I think they will be tough to beat.

Prediction: Bowdoin def. Amherst 6-3, in a very tightly contested match.

#9 Williams (73.58) @ #6 Wesleyan (74.69) Sunday 10 A.M.

How Williams can pull off the upset: Back to the tried and true formula here. Williams takes a doubles lead taking #1 and either #2 or #3 dubs, then the grind their way to singles wins at #2 and two out of three matches from #3-#5. It’s also possibly that Lil’ Raghavan ousts the Prince, but I think the Ephs have a better shot from the elder Raghavan and Indrakanti in the middle of the lineup. Unlike with Middlebury, I think Williams actually matches up fairly well with the Cards.

Why Wesleyan wins: The Ephs go from one tough match to another (welcome to April in the ‘CAC), as they have to travel and take on Wesleyan less than 24 hours after their start at Middlebury. That’s a solid 4 hour ride if I remember correctly, and given that I think the Ephs are at a serious disadvantage before the match even starts. The Cards looked DAMN good the other day while hosting MIT in an 8-1 rout. They are playing good doubles, they are playing good singles, Chen is a monster, and they are playing on their home courts against a tired team.

What happens if Williams wins: Honestly, I think all a Williams win would do would be to swap them and Wesleyan as the most likely 5th and 6th Pool-C teams. While both are still technically ahead of Amherst, we don’t know how long that will last. Williams has a win over PP that Wes does not, and Wes has a win over Case that Williams does not. Both teams beat Redlands close, and both teams lost to CMS. Their resumes are remarkably similar even if D3AS thinks one of these teams is far superior to the other.

What happens if Wesleyan wins: Not a whole lot. Depending on what happens in Saturdays Amherst/Bowdoin match, with a convincing win, Wesleyan probably overtakes Amherst in more of the bloggers’ power rankings, but they remain in the middle of the Pool-C pack while Williams continues to hang on for dear life.

Key matchup(s): #3 singles: Raghavan vs Eusebio & #4 singles: Indrakanti vs Samson. Two matches that Williams probably needs to have if they are going to pull off the upset, are also likely the two closest matches on paper.

Prediction: Wesleyan def. Williams 5-4, after overcoming a doubles deficit. A lot of people like Wes to roll this weekend, but I think this one could be the closest match of the weekend.

#17 Tufts (70.82) @ #1 Middlebury (76.85) Sunday 11:30 A.M.

How Tufts can pull off the upset: The rain and cold from Saturday lingers into Sunday, the match is moved indoors, Tufts comes out firing and pulls off the doubles sweep, Gupte goes vintage on court 1 and beats Cuba, and the Jumbos sneak out another win at either #5 or #6 singles. Do you believe in unlikelihoods?

Why Middlebury wins: If this match were at Tufts, we might be talking a little differently, but it’s at Midd and I don’t see how the Jumbos are going to get their five points here. Midd is technically stronger at all 9 spots, and considering the Panthers will have just played a match back on their home courts, even if this match does stay indoors, it shouldn’t be all that close. It’s supposed to be 61 and sunny in Middlebury, VT on Sunday, so even for this early start time it looks like the match should be played outdoors, which bodes well for the Panthers.

What happens if Tufts wins: Woof. This would be the most chaotic scenario of all four of these matches. Tufts has already taken losses to PP, Chicago and Amherst. A win here would do about the same as what a win for Redlands against CMS this weekend might do. It will certainly vault the Bos back into the conversation, but I’m not sure this one win would be enough. However, it would certainly make things more interesting!

What happens if Middlebury wins: Absolutely nothing. This is a match Midd is expected to win, and it would not change a thing moving forwards, except one fewer chance for Tufts to play their way into the discussion.

Key matchup(s): #1 singles. Gupte’s game has a really high ceiling, so if he’s playing well on Sunday I’d like to watch the firepower in his match with Cuba.

Prediction: Middlebury def. Tufts 8-1 with Tufts getting a doubles point.