As we enter the halfway mark of the 2017 season, I thought it would be a perfect time to jot down some thoughts on the nationally ranked central region teams. Honestly, things aren’t looking great. Without getting into too many specifics in this intro, most teams aren’t playing up to expectations, and some have just completely fallen off the map. There is still hope, however. In the past, we’ve seen teams turn things around late in the season. For the sake of my sanity, I really, really, really hope all of my teams step up their performances. Let’s get to it:
#5 Chicago
Key Wins: #6 Wash U (7-2), #9 Pomona-Pitzer (7-2), #13 Williams (6-3), #14 Tufts (9-0)
Key Losses: #1 Emory (5-1), #2 CMS (7-2)
Summary/Analysis: After a spectacular 2016 spring season and fall ITA performance, expectations were very high for the Maroons in 2017. As you can see from their important results, Chicago boasts some huge wins so far and some tough losses. At Indoors, the Maroons garnered 7-2 victories over Wash U and Pomona. However, in the final, an early 3-0 deficit basically dashed any hopes of an Indoors title. Since then, David Liu — their best player — has not played a single match, most likely out with injury. The junior’s absence was most noticeable against CMS, where the Maroons were unable to compete in singles. In some ways, this season mirrors this point of 2016: Chicago takes 2nd at Indoors and their only other loss until this point last year was against CMS. Yet, there are a couple notable differences, and those come in the form of important Pool C wins against Wash U and Williams. Overall, Chicago has the biggest upside out of all of the central region teams; yet, they will most likely face Wash U two more times in the next month, and you can never count the Bears out late in the season. With the return of David Liu to the lineup, I’m expecting very big things from the Maroons.
Important Matches still to come: #19 Gustavus Adolphus (April 9), Wash U (April 16), UAA Championships (April 21-23)
#6 Wash U
Key Wins: #7 Carnegie Mellon (5-4), #9 Pomona-Pitzer (5-4), #25 Kenyon (9-0), #26 Skidmore (6-3)
Key Losses: #2 CMS (6-3), #5 Chicago (7-2)
Summary/Analysis: In my opinion, Wash U’s most important win thus far was in the 3rd place match of Indoors against Carnegie (shout out to freshman Robin Engel!). Not only does that win help the Bears when it comes to at-large selections, but it most likely places them as the 2 or 3 seed at UAAs, meaning they won’t face Emory in the semis, but rather Chicago, a team they have gone back and forth with the past few seasons. Doubles continues to be a key strength, as the Bears have have taken leads against every ranked team they’ve faced aside from Chicago. However, as I pointed out on Twitter a couple weeks ago, singles hasn’t been as strong. In their four matches against top 10 teams, Wash U accumulated 6 singles wins compared to 18 losses. I’m not too worried, though. The Bears have proven year after year that they come up big when it matters.
Important Matches still to come: Chicago (April 16), UAA Championships (April 21-23)
#11 Case Western
Key Wins: #12 Whitman (5-4), #16 Trinity TX (5-4), #25 Kenyon (5-4)
Key Losses: #7 Carnegie Mellon (5-4), #9 Pomona-Pitzer (7-2 and 5-4), #10 Wesleyan (8-1)
Summary/Analysis: Even though Case Western has some losses that will most likely come back to haunt them when NCAA selections are made, they have exceeded my expectations. Remember, this is a team that lost CJ Krimbill to graduation, and as we vividly remember, Krimbill is the reason Case did well as a whole last year. Still, Case has notched wins over Whitman, Trinity, and Kenyon without him this year. Unfortunately, none of those wins are over Pool C opponents, but each of their losses is. Case needs at least a 3rd place in the UAA tournament if they hope to have any chance at a Pool C bid.
Important Matches still to come: UAA Championships (April 21-23)
#18 Kalamazoo
Key Wins: #25 Kenyon (6-3), #29 NYU (6-3), #34 Denison (6-3), #36 Coe (5-4),
Key Losses: #40 TCNJ (5-4)
Summary/Analysis: How about the Hornets!?! After a season that featured a lot of individual success for Branden Metzler, Kalamazoo has proven to the country in 2017 that they are more than just one player. Kalamazoo’s biggest win so far was against an overconfident Kenyon squad (that has rightfully humbled itself since). What impresses me most about this Hornet team is the ability for anyone in the lineup to step up in the clutch. Of course we all expected Metzler to be a lock, but every other singles player has stepped up at one time or another against ranked opponents. Unfortunately, KZoo squandered its hopes for a perfect season with a loss to TCNJ; it’s tough to come back from an 0-3 hole but Kalamazoo fought hard in the 5-4 loss. The Hornets rebounded nicely with a win over #29 NYU just two days later. Kalamazoo’s toughest contest still to come is against unranked UW-Whitewater. It seems like it’s all smooth sailing from here on out.
Important Matches still to come: UR UW-Whitewater (April 9)
#19 Gustavus Adolphus
Key Wins: #32 Pacific (7-2), #36 Coe (8-1)
Key Losses: #4 Middlebury (7-2), #9 Pomona-Pitzer (7-2), #12 Whitman (6-3), #16 Trinity TX (5-4), UR Mary Hardin Baylor (5-4)
Summary/Analysis: Until this past Tuesday, the Gusties’ season was pretty ordinary. They beat the teams they were expected to defeat; they lost to those ranked ahead of them. Then, after Gustavus played Middlebury on Tuesday morning, Coach Valentini rested his starters for the afternoon match against Mary Hardin Baylor. Unfortunately, Gustavus lost the contest 5-4, and they received some criticism for resting their starters. I’m not positive about the implications of the loss — perhaps the Gusties may end up as a 3-seed instead of a 2-seed at NCAA regionals — but Gustavus is still expected to roll through the MIAC playoffs for an auto bid to NCAAs. The Gusties still have four ranked opponents left, and good results against them will quickly overshadow the Mary Hardin Baylor loss. Despite some early season setbacks in doubles, the three Gustie pairs seem to be doing well against ranked competition, and Mohanad Alhouni’s only two singles losses this spring have come to Pacific and Middlebury, while he’s beaten several probable NCAA qualifiers. The bottom of the singles lineup still has some work to do.
Important Matches still to come: Southwestern (March 29), UT-Tyler (March 31), DePauw (April 8), Chicago (April 9)
#25 Kenyon
Key Wins: #38 Stevens (6-3)
Key Losses: #6 Wash U (9-0), #9 Pomona-Pitzer (5-4), #11 Case (5-4), #15 Amherst (8-1), #16 Trinity TX (6-3 and 5-4), #18 Kalamazoo (6-3), #20 UT-Tyler (7-2),
Summary/Analysis: In my fall preview, I projected Kenyon to be ranked in the 15-20 range by the end of the season. Sadly, I was too nice to the Lords, as they have dropped all the way to 25 in the national rankings. I didn’t think this was possible, but Kenyon is in danger of not winning the NCAC Tournament. Doubles has hindered the Lords this season, as they’ve faced deficits against 7 of their 9 nationally-ranked opponents. Without depth, doubles, and a top 5 #1 player on their side, things could continue to go downhill. Hopefully, Kenyon makes a late season push.
Important Matches still to come: #31 Lewis & Clark (March 29), #7 Carnegie Mellon (April 1), UR Oberlin (April 15), NCAC Tournament (April 28-April 30)
#34 Denison
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: #3 Bowdoin (9-0), #5 Chicago (9-0), #18 Kalamazoo (6-3), #31 Lewis & Clark (6-3)
Summary/Analysis: There actually isn’t much to say about Denison. The Big Red don’t have any crushing defeats or impressive victories. As you can see, they competed well against Kalamazoo and Lewis & Clark. Keep in mind that Denison plays unranked Oberlin on April 2nd, so that match will likely determine if Denison will stay ranked for the remainder of the season. I don’t think Denison has quite enough to contend for the NCAC title, but you never know. If there was ever a year the NCAC was up for grabs, it’s this year.
Important Matches still to come: UR Oberlin (April 2), #35 DePauw (April 15), NCAC Tournament (April 28-April 30)
#35 DePauw
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: #5 Chicago (8-1), #6 Wash U (6-3),
Summary/Analysis: What’s funny about DePauw is that they’ve done nothing to prove they can win the NCAC, but I have a feeling they could put up a great fight against Kenyon. Just last Saturday, the Tigers took a 2-1 lead on doubles powerhouse Wash U and had a couple close singles matches. Much like Denison, they have yet to beat a ranked opponent, but their schedule offers more opportunities for big wins. Having only faced ranked teams in Chicago and Wash U so far, there’s just not enough to tell what to expect.
Important Matches still to come: #19 Gustavus Adolphus (April 8), #36 Coe (April 9), #34 Denison (April 15), NCAC Tournament (April 28-April 30)
#36 Coe
Key Wins: UR Rhodes (7-2), UR Wheaton (6-3)
Key Losses: #5 Chicago (8-1), #18 Kalamazoo (5-4), #19 Gustavus Adolphus (8-1),
Summary/Analysis: The defining moment thus far into the season for the Kohawks has been their heart-wrenching 5-4 loss to Kalamazoo on February 18th. In the defeat, four singles matches went the distance, so I thought Coe could put up a good fight against Gustavus. Unfortunately, they lost 8-1. Coe is still a very good team, and I’m excited for the April 9th match against DePauw. Not too much to worry about for Kohawks as far as NCAA bids are concerned. They will easily win the Iowa Conference Automatic Qualifier Tournament.
Important Matches still to come: #35 DePauw (April 9), UR UW-Whitewater (April 30)
Let’s hope for some good outcomes down the stretch.