#7 Amherst vs #24 Kenyon

Amherst vs Kenyon: Monday, March 13 at 8 a.m.

Amherst kicked off its 2017 season earlier today with a convincing 8-1 win over Stevens. The (hopefully) soon to be Hamsters will take on Roger Williams this evening, but D3Midwest and I are going to quickly look ahead to tomorrow morning’s bout between Amherst and Kenyon. A few years ago, this would have gotten top billing through the DIII tennis world, but with both teams ranked outside the ITA top 10, this match now carries a different type of weight. Kenyon’s comeback came up just short in their rematch against Trinity TX earlier today, falling 5-4 after getting swept in doubles. Can the Lords keep the momentum they built during singles and bounce back against a young but talented Amherst team? Make sure to check down at the bottom for an in-depth guest preview by the one and only D3Central (AVZ).

D3NE: The Lords vs the former Lords, but pretentious mascots aside, I’m very interested to see how Amherst handles Kenyon’s particular brand of tennis tomorrow. No one would argue the Amherst has the more talented squad, but if the singles lineup holds for tomorrow, then Coach Doebler will be starting three freshmen at 3/4/5, and two sophomores at 2/6. I have no doubt that Kenyon’s bench mob will be out in full force, especially if they sniff any possible chance of an upset throughout the match. The bench mob is actually the first of my three keys to this match.

1. KENYON BENCH MOB. Look, freshmen have a history of getting rattled. It’s not their fault. They don’t yet have the experience of playing in big matches when your whole team (and sometimes your whole season) is riding on you and your match. Four of the six Amherst starters (if the lineup stays the same) have very limited experience, and could easily tighten up in a close match. This is where the Bench Mob comes in. If Kenyon is going to win this match, they need to rattle those young guns. Especially in the…
2. EARLY GOINGS. While late match comebacks are always fun, if Kenyon gets down early (again) it will almost certainly be too late. The way Kenyon gets the #BenchMob involved is by putting pressure on Amherst early and often. Both at the start of dubs and singles, if Kenyon is playing even and bringing the noise, that is a recipe for rattling inexperience. The issue is that this plan is easier said than done. Amherst pulled away from Stevens early in the singles today, and given the lack of success that Kenyon has had towards the bottom of the lineup recently (see next point), it will be harder for Kenyon to keep the pressure on if guys look around and see any big deficits early.
3. DEPTH. I know, I know, I’ve been mainly focusing on Kenyon so far, but that’s because Amherst is still a total wild card in my eyes. However, one place they should be strong is the bottom of their lineup. Marchalik, Owens, and Heidenberg all cruised in straight sets earlier today. Their opponents will be tougher tomorrow, but they should have built up at least a smidge of confidence today in their first real dual matches. That’s important, because the downside to having the depth that Amherst does is that there is a constant pressure to win at your spot lest you be replaced by one of the other young/talented 4-stars lying in wait.

CONCLUSION: I like how Amherst has built their schedule. It turns out they keep dialing up the toughness each day to start the break. Stevens to Kenyon to UT-Tyler to Trinity TX (Kenyon and Tyler are likely about the same, with Trinity just a ½ step above), is a perfect way for Amherst to get their guys some match experience while still playing good teams/players. Remember it all is leading up to Emory on Saturday, but if Amherst can go into the match with the Eagles as an undefeated team, they will both have a better chance to pull off that upset, and not be hurt nearly as much by a loss. D3West and I will be back to give you a preview of Amherst’s back-to-back matches with UT-Tyler and Trinity Tx, but for today I like Amherst to roll to an 8-1 win over Kenyon.

D3Midwest: I know people get sick of the talk between outdoor and indoor surfaces, but I really think it matters. The Lords are a much stronger indoor team. Meanwhile, aside from Josh Marchalik, the Amherst freshmen that start (Jayson Fung and Gabriel Owens) are from California, and I think they will do well outdoors.

As I mentioned in the Kenyon/Trinity preview, the Lords have been unable to figure out doubles. They were down 3-0 to Trinity, making that the sixth time in their last six matches they have faced a deficit into singles.

Another point I made in the Kenyon/Trinity preview is that depth isn’t on Kenyon’s side. In my opinion, Amherst is one of the top three teams in the country in terms of depth (so many 5-stars!), so I don’t see Kenyon’s struggles at 5 and 6 ending against Amherst.

How do the Lords pull off the upset? They first need a lead after doubles. Kenyon isn’t nearly deep enough to take more than 3 singles matches from Amherst, so leading at least 2-1 after dubs is a must. Frankly, I think they may need to sweep dubs which, given my earlier point, is unlikely. Before reading Northeast’s side of the preview, I was going to speak about mental toughness, but he already covered that. As talented as Amherst’s freshmen may be, they probably haven’t experienced a lot of noise against them. I’m assuming Kenyon brought most of its huge roster to Orlando. No sportsmanship awards should be won tomorrow if Kenyon wants any chance of pulling off the upset. They need to be really loud and rattle the Amherst freshmen.

Ultimately, while Amherst hasn’t proven much (since they just started their season today), Kenyon’s struggles make it tough for me to predict a Lords’ win. Amherst 7-2.

D3Central: “Here’s my preview, Kenyon will get crushed.”