Location: Newport News, VA
Coach: Eric Christiansen (5th Season)
ITA National Ranking: 28
ITA Regional Ranking: 6 (Atlantic South)
Blog Power Ranking: 31
Twitter Handle: @CNUTennis
Happy Saturday to everyone! I would first like to say that Tom Brady is slightly over rated and Matt Ryan is going to the lead the Falcons to a Super Bowl tomorrow night. Will I be eating my words? Most likely because the Patriots are so damn good, but they make it too easy to love to hate them. #keeptheballsinflated Anyways, this season preview will focus on a team much less consistent than the Pats, the CNU Captains. This team really left me scratching my head last year with one good win over Hopkins, a couple decent wins over NCWes, Cal Lu and Chapman but losses to W&L and Redlands, while getting thumped, and I mean thumped, by CMS, Mary Wash, Stevens and TCNJ. The only reason they kept a top 30 ranking is because of that win over the Jays, otherwise, they’re probably down to 32 or 33. But enough about last season, lets look ahead to this season!
Best-Case Scenario: In my opinion, a best-case scenario for the Captains would be a retention of their top 20 ranking as well as one good win over a team ranked in the top 20 in the regular season. Looking to the post season, they would need to catch Mary Washington asleep at the wheel in order to secure a CAC title and a bid to NCAAs, where they will most likely get bounced in the second round.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves taking a major step back for CNU. This would entail losses to all the teams ranked ahead of them, as well as to some teams ranked lower than them. This would cause a significant drop in ranking, if not out of the rankings during the regular season. They would still make the CAC tournament, however they would lose to UMW in the finals and spend another year at home instead of NCAAs.
Schedule Analysis: Well technically the Captains have already started their regular season with two matches this fall. They took a tough 0-9 loss this fall to CMU and squeaked past Oberlin 5-4 later that day. Being completely honest, these aren’t the most reassuring results and if I were CNU, I’d forget about this fall and look towards the spring to regroup because they have some very good opportunities (see full schedule here). Coach Christiansen must’ve read the Van Zee Vault article about scheduling.
CNU starts off the year with a key Atlantic South matchup against #26 Swarthmore. A lot of the bloggers are on the Garnet train this year and I think I am too. I think Swarthmore takes this one, but this will be a great early season measuring stick for the Captains to see how much they need to improve this season. They will get a little break against a mediocre Haverford, where they will be favored, before taking on #24 Whitman. I expect the Whitman result to be similar to the Swat result, but hey, prove me wrong (it makes for a fun write up).
Next up is a flight out to sunny California for 4 spring break matches. They begin their trip with a strong #9 Pomona. I would consider a 3-6 loss a success in this match to build confidence for the rest of the trip. The next two matches are against Cal Lu and Chapman, who should be very beatable teams for the Captains. Look for them to go 2-0 against this pair of opponents. The final match of the trip will be against #18 Redlands. While CNU played a tough 4-5 match against them last year, I don’t see them repeating those results this year; similar to the Pomona match, I would consider a 3-6 loss a success.
The next 3 matches will be keys to the Captains success this season because all are potentially nationally and ASouth regionally ranked foes. The best part about this is that they’re all at home too. CALLING ALL FANS: if you want CNU to have a respectable season, get to these matches and cheer your boys on! They begin against NC Wesleyan, who I believe will be the most beatable. Judging by how each of their respective seasons are going, I’ll probably flip a coin to determine the winner of this match. The next day, the Captains will look to avenge last years loss to #38 W&L. If the Captains are hungry enough, I can see them winning this match, but be very careful because I think the Generals are dangerous this year. Finally CNU takes on conference and ASouth rivals Mary Washington. While the Eagles are down this year, I don’t believe they are that down. Look for Mary Wash to take this match 6-3.
The rest of the schedule is pretty much a cakewalk till the CAC tournament, with the exception of a matchup against D1 University of Richmond. The CAC should play out like it does every year and feature a rematch of UMW and CNU in the finals. I expect the results to be the same, however if you want to make a name for yourself Captains, there is the time. But wait, it’s not over!?! According to their schedule, right after CACs, the Captains will have a rematch against a pretty pissed off Hopkins looking to avenge their loss from last year. I think the Jays take this match no problem, but hey, look at last year. Anything is possible if you believe! (And get super lucky…)
Keys to Success: I’ve gotten to see this team play a couple times in the past few years and there are a few things that I believe will be big factors this season. So lets get into the the CNU Captains’ 3 C’s to success.
Camaraderie: When I’ve seen the Captains play, it sometimes just seems a little dead. If they want to win the big matches against teams like NC Wes, W&L, Swat, Mary Wash and Whitman, I believe a strong court presence from everyone on court as well as the bench mob.
Cerny: In my humble opinion, I think Cerny might be the most reliable player on CNU’s roster. We all know that Reed is capable of getting some big wins (i.e. beating MVP Buxbaum last year), but I think Cerny is more solid at his position. Cerny will need to continue to improve this year and become a rock at 2 singles and 1 doubles to ensure his team’s success.
Consistency: As I alluded to earlier in this article, the team consistency leaves me scratching my head sometimes. If CNU finds a way to beat Redlands, they need to also be able to find a way to beat Mary Washington; that’s what makes the difference between a good and a great team. If they want to be a top 25 team and an NCAA competitor, they will need to find some consistency this season.
Realistic Prediction: The beauty of this team is that they have pretty much all the pieces they did last year. You know that they are capable of producing big results, but will they be able to do it all year round. This team could genuinely be a top 25 team, or a team ranked just inside the top 40. Realistically, I don’t believe they have what it takes at the moment to jump inside the top 25 so I’m going with an overall regular season record (not including the fall matches) of 10-8 with losses to Swarthmore, Whitman, Pomona, Redlands, W&L, Mary Washington, Richmond and Hopkins. This is the part where I say, “prove me wrong.”
There you have it folks! Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree? Or are you still hung up on the fact that I didn’t have a great fantasy draft and might not actually know what I’m talking about? I’d love to hear about it, so leave a comment below, tweet at me @D3RegASouth or shoot me an email at D3RegionalASouth@gmail.com! That’s all for now, so until next time, RegASouth out.
“The CAC should play out like it does every year and feature a rematch of UMW and CNU in the finals.”
Seems to be a bit of an overstatement considering they have only played each other in the finals twice.
Sorry! I got a little excited when writing the article and didn’t look as far back as I should have. I’ll definitely make a mental note going forward to do a bit more research before making statements like that. Thank you for taking the time to read and comment!