Spring Break Walla Walla might be the main event this weekend, but we’ve also got a couple of interesting matchups between regionally ranked Central teams taking place. Being that my main job is to cover the regionally ranked teams of the Northeast and Central regions, this seems like an excellent time for my first match preview article. We’ve got two matches to discuss, so let’s get into it.
#11 Oberlin vs #15 Wabash:
Both teams began play last weekend, with Wabash easily beating Augustana and Lake Forest while Oberlin took out Indiana Tech. There’s not a ton to take from these results, but it’s nice to have an idea of what the lineups will look like coming into this weekend. For Oberlin, of note is that Michael Drougas was playing #3 after missing the fall, and senior Abraham Davis has moved up to #2. Even more importantly, playing #5 is perhaps the best name in D3 tennis, Manickam Manickam. Freshman Stephen Grupposo also made an appearance at #4, and transfer Levi Kimmel played at #6. I mention all this mainly because Oberlin’s lineup was completely different this fall when they lost 9-0 to CMU and 5-4 to Christopher Newport. So while the jury is still out, my inclination is that this is an upgrade on the fall.For Wabash, Reifeis and Makio at the top of the lineup is business as usual, and of note is Patrick McAuley, a three-star transfer from D1 IUPUI and former high school doubles partner of Will Reifeis. On paper, this is a nice addition for the Little Giants, but his results haven’t been too impressive as of yet, barely edging out Lake Forest’s #3 in a super-tiebreaker last weekend.
Anyway, these NCAC foes played twice last year, with Oberlin winning 6-3 and then 5-2 in the conference tournament. Both teams return a good chunk of their lineups, and I don’t think Wabash will have enough to flip those results. I definitely give Oberlin an edge when it comes to depth, and while I could see Wabash sneaking out a 2-1 lead after doubles, I don’t think they’ll be able to hang in singles beyond maybe the top few spots. I’ll say this one ends up either 6-3 or 7-2 for the Yeomen.
#13 Carleton vs #16 Carthage:
Going off of the ITA rankings, this match definitely has upset potential. Carthage is three spots below Carleton thanks to a 5-4 loss to Grinnell last year, a team that Carleton beat 7-2. The Knights began play last weekend, beating Saint Mary’s 9-0 and then UW-La Crosse 6-3. Against La Crosse, Carleton lost at #1, #2, and #4 singles, all in super-tiebreakers. Obviously splitting singles with a team outside the top 20 doesn’t look great, but I’m not going to write too much into it since we’re not even in February yet as I write this. I definitely like Carthage’s Herman Abban at #1 against Kevin Mei, and while Pawel Jaworski had a very tight match against Erik Kerrigan of Chicago in the fall, his other results from the fall indicate he’s not consistently at that level, so I think #2 singles is a tossup and potentially a swing match.
This will be Carthage’s spring debut, so I don’t even know if their lineup will be the same as when they played Chicago this fall, but regardless, my sense is that the Redmen have a pretty significant drop off midway through their lineup. Chris Conley also had a tight three setter with Charlie Pei in the fall at #3, but at 4, 5, and 6, Carthage struggled to win games against the Maroons. Carleton, on the other hand, is the deeper team, and has a big advantage lower in the lineup. For Carthage to win, I think their most likely path is a win at #1 doubles (Abban and P. Jaworski had an excellent fall) and another doubles win at 2 or 3, and then singles wins at 1, 2, and either 3 or 4. Not an impossible recipe for success, and I’m saying there’s a chance. Brad Gilbert likes to give percentage chances for tennis upsets, so I’ll take a page out of his book and say Carthage has a 38% chance to get the win.
Looking at numbers that aren’t just pulled out of my rear end, UTR has Carthage at a power 6 of 56 and Carleton at 63. That’s quite a sizable gap, and while I think these two teams are much closer than those numbers suggest, I tend to think UTR is right in giving the edge to the deeper Carleton Knights. I’ll pick them to get through 6-3 and hold onto their ranking for now.
Well, that’s all I’ve got for you today. Wabash is generally good about score updates on Twitter (@wabashtennis), and Oberlin’s account is also pretty active (@Yeo_MTEN). Between Carleton (@CarletonTennis) and Carthage’s (@Carthage_Tennis) there should hopefully be enough tweeting to keep you all in the loop as things unfold there as well. Enjoy the tennis, enjoy the weekend, and as always feel free to reach me at d3regionalnec@gmail.com or @d3regionalnec on Twitter.
Seems to me the Blog needs to do an interview with Coach Zweifel. Either that or fund a new sprinkler system.