Happy Hump Day, boys and girls. I know our previews have been a bit NE heavy recently, but that’s simply because some of them don’t start until later in the year. The NESCAC exception to that rule is the Bates Bobcats, who start their season in February due to their early “spring” break. Bates has been up and down over the past couple years, beating Bowdoin in 2 of the past 3 years, but also failing to qualify for NESCACs in each of those same three years. I was shocked to find that their regional ranking has fallen all the way to 12th, but when you look at the teams ahead of them and last year’s results its hard to argue.
This is something of a make or break year for the Bobcats, with three contributing seniors entering their final semester at school. Bates also has a couple talented freshmen, and they are led not only by their three aforementioned seniors, but also by Ben Rosen, who was one of the premiere players in the country last year. Rosen had a fantastic summer, and according to D3Midwest did something not many DIII players do, played tennis while abroad. If Rosen has made another jump, he should be a favorite to make a run at NCAAs. Bates has a history of its top players performing well at NCAAs, but I’m sure both Rosen and the team have bigger goals. While Bates didn’t lose any starting seniors, Fergus Scott (the Cal-Lu transfer) is no longer on the team’s roster. As such, I’m assuming he won’t be playing this year, however please correct me if that’s incorrect. If most things go right, Bates should have a great chance at beating Tufts for the 6th and final spot at NESCACs this spring.
Location: Lewiston, Maine
Coach: Paul Gastonguay, 21st (I think?) year as Bates’ Head Coach
ITA National Ranking: 25th
ITA Regional Ranking: 12th
Blog Power Ranking: 24th
Twitter Handle: @BatesTennis. Reliable for at least some updates, but rarely constant updating.
Key Losses: Fergus Scott (#3 singles and #2 doubles)?
Key Additions: Jacob Eisenberg (3-star from NY), Nicholas Glover (3-star from Texas), Vidyut Yadav (3-star from California), Jacob Kauppila (0-star from Missouri, but 11.41 UTR), Adam Schwartz? (returning junior)
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Bates’ freshmen ball out and hold down the middle of the lineup, while the seniors bring back the doubles strength Bates was known for a few years ago. The Bobcats beat Tufts, MIT and Brandeis, along with sneaking out upset wins over Pomona, Hopkins and one more NESCAC team ranked above them. Bates enters NESCACs as the 5th seed and wins its quarterfinal giving them an NCAA berth for the first time in recent memory
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: Bates’ freshmen shrink under the microscope, and the Bobcats lose all 7 matches I had them winning in the above scenario. Throw in a loss to Mary Washington and against Colby for good measure, and Bates finishes the season in 10th place in the NESCAC
Scenario Review: Quite a wide range between scenarios. There are a couple of keys (listed below) that will have an enormous impact on Bates’ season, but as of right now I’m leaning towards Bates making its first trip to NESCACs since 2013. That match at Tufts on 4-20 is a big one.
Lineup Prediction:
#1 Ben Rosen, junior, UTR=12.77, range #1-1. Rosen was abroad this fall so there are no fall tournament results to go on, but his 2016 spring was stellar. He was 14-5 with wins over Krimbill (Case #1), Fagundes (UT-Tyler #1), Tercek (Bowdoin #1), and that was just in the final week of his season. He was 11-5 against top-30 teams, with two of his five losses coming to Skyler Butts and two more coming in rr breakers (10-7 to Zykov and 13-11 to Farrell). All of this is fine and dandy, but D3Midwest reports that Rosen has actually been playing while abroad! “He won the prestigious Silver Ball this past summer at the USTA National Open Men’s Singles Grass Court Championships (beating Pepperdine player/former blue chip/UTR 13.11 Stefan Menichella along the way)…[i]n mid-November, he played a Futures event in Spain a pushed a player with a UTR over 13 to three sets. He ended up doing the same thing at the USTA National Men’s Open in December.” Impressive stuff from the junior, and D3Midwest for that matter.
#2 Chris Ellis, senior, UTR=11.45, range #2-3. Ellis hasn’t played a lot this fall, and has missed time over the past couple of years. He did play at the ITA, where his nice draw led
him to a tough 3rd round match with Urken (projected Bowdoin #2-3) where he fell 1&2. Chris’ has always seemed to get better results on the doubles side of things, but only played doubles in one tournament this fall as well. Last spring, he earned good wins over Solimano (Amherst graduated), Dulle (projected Redlands #2), and Larkin (projected Swat #2), but also was a total of 1-7 against teams ranked in the top-15. #2 could be a tough spot for Bates, as a lot of the guys after Rosen appear to be close, but if any of them are going to come away with wins at #2 it will most likely be Ellis.
#3 Pat Ordway, senior, UTR=11.57, range #2-5. Ordway’s two fall singles losses came against Tufts. Not great when you consider that Tufts will likely be Bates’ biggest match of the year, but they were a 12-10 superbreaker loss to Ali (projected Tufts #2) and a 3rd set retirement against Gupte (projected Tufts #1). Those are decent results even in losses, but Bates will need their big senior to turn those close losses into wins this spring. Pat, as you will see later in the preview, is a key for Bates this year, because he is slated to play important spots both in the singles and doubles lineup this spring. He did pick up a 10-7 superbreaker win over Koulouris (projected Skidmore #2-4) at Bates for his lone win of the fall.
#4 Josh Quijano, sophomore, UTR=10.93, range #3-5. Quijano was the team’s best freshman last year, and the only one to make an impact on the singles lineup. However, his results weren’t the best, going 5-11 last spring. The reason he’s this high is because he played mostly A-flight draws this fall. Granted, Rosen and Ellis didn’t play many fall tournaments (or any in Rosen’s case), but Quijano played A-flight at both Middlebury and Bates. He lost to Bunis and Urken (projected #2’s for Brandeis and Bowdoin) in those draws. I wanted to put Quijano at 3, leaving Ordway for #4, but as you can see Ordway has a higher UTR, had a better fall, and has more experience.
#5 Nick Glover, freshman, UTR=11.70, range #3-7. And now we’ve reached the freshmen section of the lineup. Glover was not the highest rated recruit for Bates (nor was Kauppila) yet he played B-Flight at Middlebury and A-Flight at Bates. While he lost in the 1st round of both tournaments (Jackson, Midd projected #5-7, and Reid, Colby projected #1), Coach Gastonguay must see something in the young man. He also played at the ITA, where he lost to Cuba (projected Midd #1) in the 2nd round. I could see Glover punching above his weight in the middle of the lineup, but my guess is he’ll settle somewhere in the #5 or #6 range for the majority of the season.
#6 Jacob Kauppila, freshman, UTR=11.41, range #3-7. Unlike most of the guys listed ahead of him, Kauppila got at least one win in both tournaments he played in this fall. The win over Yu (RPI projected #4) was a good one, although he fell to Schlanger (Midd projected #4-6) in straight sets in the following round. His straight set loss to Bunis (projected Brandeis #2) in the 2nd round at Bates shouldn’t be of concern, because he won’t see any Bunis-types playing #6 this year. This spot is not safe, and honestly nor are multiple of the spots above it. We could see a variety of guys get their shot at the bottom of the Bates lineup this year, including…
Other contenders: Brent Feldman, senior, UTR=10.23, Adam Schwartz, junior, UTR=Not Listed, Josh Leiner, junior, UTR=11.52. Feldman played behind the guys listed at #3-#6 above at the Bates tournament, and got beaten 1&2 by Ethan Chen (projected Tufts #4-6) in the 1st round. He also played the C-Flight at Middlebury, losing to Ostrovsky (projected Brandeis #5-7) in the 1st round. Even with his rough fall, Feldman has the lineup experience that the freshmen do not, making him a serious candidate to start or fill in at #6. Schwartz is a bit of a wild card, but after being off the Bates roster all of last year, appears to have returned. He didn’t do much this fall, but I can’t imagine he wouldn’t start if he’s fully healthy. Leiner has always played more doubles than singles, and neither Eisenberg nor Yadav (both 3-stars) did anything this fall. In fact, despite being Bates’ highest ranked recruit, Eisenberg didn’t play at all this fall. If he was hurt, he could make an impact this spring.
Schedule Analysis: http://athletics.bates.edu/sports/mten/2016-17/schedule
Bates starts it year in late February with it’s Cali trip, where they will take on Westmont, PP, and CMS. The Vestment match to start is a nice touch because it doesn’t really count towards their season. Bates and PP have had a couple of duels over the past couple years, and if Bates comes out of its trip with a 1-1 DIII record that would be a huge win. The most likely scenario is a close PP win followed by a not-so-close CMS win, but I’m sure I’ll do a match preview when the time comes.
After Cali, Bates has one of the busier March schedules in the NESCAC. They take on MIT, Midd, Hamilton, and take a southern trip down to UMW where they will take on the Eagles and Johns Hopkins, before playing DI Georgetown. Midd will be too tough, and Hamilton will be a cakewalk, but MIT, UMW, and Hopkins could all be good matches. If Bates can beat MIT and UMW, even with losing to PP in Cali, they will have a great shot at creeping back towards the top-20.
April brings Brandeis and the conference schedule. The match with the Judges should be very interesting, as both teams could have 3 starting seniors this year, and both will be looking to make a move into the top-20. The Bobcats also can’t overlook Colby at home. They should be able to take that match, but it’s necessary if they want to make NESCACs. Then a win in a match with Trinity Ct is also crucial. While we have been harping on Trinity Ct a lot this fall, they still sit above Bates in the regional rankings. Going to Amherst, Tufts, and Conn is a tricky road trip, and going 1-2 would almost certainly spell the end of their postseason hopes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Tufts match this year could very likely be a de facto NESCACs play-in match. Bates finishes the year hosting Bowdoin and Wesleyan, and while they will be heavy underdogs in those matches, Bates will be playing at home.
Keys to Success:
- Seniors. Bates has a possible three starting seniors this year in Ellis, Ordway and Feldman. They didn’t graduate any starting seniors, so these three guys have been leaders on the court for a while now. After promising starts to all three of their careers, their Bates legacies are very much up in the air and therefore will be determined based on their senior year performance. The Bobcats will need at least two of these three to play a big role this year on the court, but they will also need them off the court as freshmen have a great chance at comprising a significant portion of the starting lineup. This leads us to key #2…
- Freshmen. My projected singles lineup has two freshmen in it, and they were arguably the most consistent performers for Bates through the fall season. As DIII continues to get better and better, the freshmen play more of a role (just look at Jiang and Urken last year for Bowdoin). While they won’t be expected to lead, they will be expected to bring results, and Bates will need that if they are going to compete for a spot at NESCACs this spring.
- Doubles. Bates is thought of as a good doubles team, but they had their issues last year. Coach Gastonguay has the reputation of being an excellent doubles coach, but they need a top team to come forward out of the pack. It’s silly to forecast doubles teams now, but while Rosen/Ellis are the frontrunners to play at the top spot, it’s not a guarantee. The Bobcats were swept by the better doubles teams in the conference (Bowdoin, Middlebury, Williams and Amherst) and that cannot be the case this year if Bates wants to pull off an upset.
Season Prediction: I’ve gone back and forth a lot this year about who will make the postseason and end up the #6 team at NESCACs. In my mind Colby still isn’t quite there, and Trinity could well be worse than the Mules, leaving Tufts and Bates as the only options. I don’t believe the decision is easy, and in toss-up scenarios we must remember to always follow the main rule of the Almighty D3TennisGuy, bet on the seniors. Gimme the Bobcats. A return to NESCACs, albeit with a 1st round exit, and a national ranking of somewhere between 18-22.
Very nice review. Random thoughts:
– Rosen (given his past 10 months tennis results) is a Beast.
– Not sure why it’s a surprise that Glover & Kauppila are being plugged in as the top two freshman. Their UTRs are higher & they both had solid summer seasons. The other freshman mentioned only played one tournament in all of ’16 (was he hurt?).
– Quijano & Glover are a REAL good doubles team. If Team Pinoy are slotted at line two (& dominate), it’ll make Bates a dangerous overall team in doubles. Glover is a talented doubles player.
– Love the fact that you used UTR when describing the line up. Did NOT like the fact that when describing the newcomers, you used TRN “Stars”…..instead of TRN (final) national – ranking along with UTR. Using the “stars” gives dated and inaccurate info. (which is why the pecking order was inaccurate).