Even if your 2016 was the worst year of your life (that seems to be the general consensus), at least you can count on at least 4 Season Previews per week from us here at the blog and an article from the one and only Adam Van Zee. We lighten up your day with some great Division III content, which is what you’re all here for. When the calendar turns, I do expect more submissions to the THIS WEEK IN HIGHLIGHTS section, which will debut when the season starts in February. We will try and compile the videos we receive in the offseason in one article. Send those videos in! By the way, D3NE beat me in fantasy. Sigh.
Overview
My last preview was about Hopkins, who just so happened to be a team that you don’t really know what to expect. With the Mary Washington Eagles, you know what to expect. I’ve been saying this for years and everyone that reads my UMW previews is probably already bored of me saying the same thing over and over. The fact of the matter is that what I say is true about this team. Last year, I predicted that they’d finish somewhere in the 20-23 range, which turned out to be an overestimate. They finished at #27. Somehow, I gave UMW too much credit last year and that does not bode well for them. This year, I think that they might be in potential trouble for an even lower finish if they don’t get things straightened up. They really had a tale of two seasons last year – before Stratton Gilmore decided to quit/get kicked off the team and after. Before, they were giving Redlands and Pomona a tough time on the road. After, they lost to F&M, Bates, W&L, Swarthmore, and got smoked by Hopkins, Emory, and CMU. They were simply overmatched. How do they remedy this for this year?
Coach: Todd Helbing, 18th Season
Location: Fredericksburg, VA
Preseason Ranking: #27
Blog Power Ranking: #26
Twitter Handle: @UMWMensTennis, solid but not spectacular account. This might be a theme.
Team Hashtag: #RiseUp (could be a bit more original, but I’ll take it)
Key Additions
Joseph Brown (#271), Michael Fleming (#277)
Key Losses
David Lunding-Johannson (#2 Singles, #2 Doubles), Stratton Gilmore (Former #1 Singles, #2 Doubles)
Lineup Analysis
#1 Singles, Brandon Griffin (UTR 11.68)
Griffin is far and away the best player on the UMW team starting from when Gilmore left last year. Griffin proved to us that he should continue his #1 singles campaign with at least some success this year with a solid performance at ITAs. Griffin took out David Perez of Hopkins in three sets and Perez is a really solid player on the rise. Griffin was then outed by the winner of the tournament, Mike Rozenvasser, in two tight sets. Brandon should be able to hold his own at #1, but he really needs to take a step up in order to be a true strong spot for the Eagles. It is his senior year, so I expect some nice wins out of him and a berth in NCAAs at the end of the year.
#2 Singles, Matthew Miles (UTR 10.99)
Miles finished the year struggling at #3 singles last year, so I was really surprised to see a really exciting performance at ITAs from the M&M. Miles took out the seed in his draw, David Reed of CNU (who has really fallen off) in two easy sets. He then took out Sklar of Hopkins (freshman) by the score of 6-1, 6-2, before losing to Michael MVP Buxbaum of Hopkins. A quarterfinal appearance from your #2 singles player is something to hang your hat on. Miles probably doesn’t have the ability to hang with the top guys in the region at this spot (Jemison, Levine, Dubin), but he definitely can be considered a favorite when UMW plays against other teams. Miles could really be a light in the Eagles season this year.
#3 Singles, Joseph Brown (UTR 11.53)
You’ll see that I went out of order with the UTRs here as I was swayed with Miles performance at ITAs as well as his experience. Freshman Joseph Brown (shoutout to Universal Tennis by the way, the site is getting crazy good), was knocked out of the first round of ITAs by Kang of Hopkins in two close sets. It might have been a little bit of first match jitters, but I would need my #3 player to be beating Kang, who projects to be a #6 at Hopkins. That being said it’s an individual tournament and we shouldn’t read THAT much into it. Brown will need to really step up his game to be a successful #3, and I really don’t see that happening this year.
#4 Singles, Patrick Hughes (UTR 11.18)
Again, Hughes UTR is actually higher than Miles but I just think Miles will slate in higher than these two in the lineup. We didn’t get too see much of Hughes at ITAs as he easily got through his first round before meeting Rozenvasser in the second round. Not the best ITA draw for a young player looking to prove himself. Last year, he really had one big win (Arora of CMU) but really didn’t do much to impress me at #5 singles. Again, that does not bode well for the UMW middle of the lineup.
#5 Singles, Michael Fleming (UTR 10.96)
Another young player in the middle of the lineup, Fleming is a guy who I think has a lot of potential and could potentially move into the #4 or even the #3 spot over time. Fleming had the best ITA of the three players at 3/4/5, making it to the Round of 16, meaning he prevailed over his seed. That seed happened to be Emerson Walsh, who I think is the 4th best player on the Hopkins team. Fleming might have lucked out by playing Xu of Swarthmore in the second round after he took out Walsh in a super tiebreaker (13-11), but hey, we’re not complaining. Let’s see if Fleming can continue the momentum that he somewhat created in the fall.
#6 Singles, Eric Hurwitz (UTR 10.84)
Hurwitz actually finished the season at #3 singles last year as the Eagles found a hard time putting together a strong singles lineup. He actually took out a couple nice players in Boslet of CNU and Chiraag Shetty of CNU, but really was overmatched by the top players such as Manji, Downing, and John Larkin. If Hurwitz actually plays at #6 this year, however, he can be a very, very good player. This could be one of UMW’s strongest spots if this happens.
Doubles
Doubles could be a huge issue for the Eagles, which is consistent with the story of the past few years. They used to be a stronghold for doubles especially with a ton of solid players who had all around games, but not anymore. None of their teams had success in the ITA, and I would expect Helbing to make a few changes before the Spring season starts. I would even follow Van Zee’s article on doubles (seriously, check it out) and potentially break up the top team of Griffin and Miles. UMW should be trying to scrap out as many doubles points as they can. We’ll see how these teams shake out, but I expect a lot of 2-1 deficits in the Eagles future.
Schedule Analysis
http://umweagles.com/sports/mten/2016-17/schedule
The Mary Washington schedule rarely changes every year and for good reason. They get all the teams that they basically should play. Overall, it’s a very well rounded schedule. They’ll start off with their little UMW invite where they host Stevens, Sewanee, and NCW. Unlike past years, this should be a nice tune up to their regular season. UMW will have to watch out for a challenge from Sewanee. Stevens and NCW should be taken care of, but at this point I’m not taking anything for granted with this UMW team. A successful weekend here is 3-0, anything less is a disappointment and the Eagles would drop out of the top 30.
Next up comes Spring Break, where it looks they have one match that is TBD. They’ll tune up against Cal Tech and Cal Lutheran, two schools they should take care of, before their real match in Redlands. Last year, they were able to challenge the Bulldogs. This year, they’ll have to really amp up their game. Griffin and Miles will play big parts and both will probably have to win their matches for them to pull the upset in the desert.
Returning from SB, UMW will go through their regional matches. That means Swarthmore, TCNJ, CMU, Christopher Newport, and randomly, Bates. UMW needs to win the matches against CNU and TCNJ. There’s definitely a chance that they don’t. If you haven’t noticed, I see UMW as more of a 30-35 team this year. Bates and Swarthmore are probably going to be out of their reach, but they’ll have chances. If their seniors can step up and steal a match against one of the two, they’ll be in the top 30. That should be the goal this year. Mary Wash will then finish with the conference tournament, where they in theory should take, unless Chris Newport somehow improves from next year (ask D3RegAS).
D3ASouth’s 3 Keys to Success
- Step Up – No, not the movie. Someone on this team needs to step up, which honestly has not happened in a long, long time. Brandon Griffin has done his part and maybe Matt Miles does the same this year – he’s certainly on the right track. But they need one more guy to step up, potentially Fleming or Hurwitz down at the bottom of the lineup. It’s risky, but the Eagles really need all the cards to fall into place to get back to a top 20 ranking.
- Shore Up the Middle – The middle of the lineup is where UMW is most suspect. #3 and #4 seem to be positions where the Eagles could have a lot of trouble. This is kind of like the last Key to Success, but Fleming could be a huge boon here. Either way, UMW needs to escape matches such as Swarthmore, CNU, and W&L with at least one win from their 3/4/5.
- Show Some Fire! – It’s been a long time where I could describe a Mary Wash team that had a lot of fire on the court. I’m not saying that we need to be Emory or CMU out here, but let’s be a little bit more boisterous than let’s say, the senior home next to my apartment. Maybe this isn’t what’s worked in the past for the Eagles, but let’s just be honest – whatever they did last year didn’t really work that much either.
Conclusion
Happy New Year everyone. We’ll be taking the next two days off then D3NE will hit you with his Middlebury Preview on Monday. Ring in the New Year with a really long post about a NESCAC team! Just how everyone envisioned it. Anyways, I think you all know what I think about UMW this year. I am hoping they surprise me, but it hasn’t happened in my 5 years of blogging. Onto 2017, and ASouth, OUT.