2017 Season Preview: #29 Denison Big Red

Location: Granville, Ohio

Coach: Peter Burling, 27th season

ITA National Ranking: 33

ITA Regional Ranking: 7

Blog Power Ranking: 29

Twitter Handle: @denisontennis. No tweets since September 2015. 🙁

Realistic Best Case Scenario: Denison steps up at the right time and rides strong doubles play to an unexpected NCAC title, earning an NCAA bid and winning a round or two before falling to a top regional seed.
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: Regular season losses to Kenyon, DePauw, and at least one other conference foe puts Denison in the 4-5 match in the first round of the NCAC tournament, where they are upset, falling out of the national rankings and outside of the top 10 in the Central.

Overview:
Denison might be the most overlooked team in the top 40. They just don’t grab much attention.  They don’t have a stud at the top, they don’t play a ton of top teams, and they rarely pull big upsets, but year after year they are right around #30 in the rankings. That kind of consistency is admirable, especially as Division III tennis has become so much deeper in recent years.  On paper, I’m not that excited about 2017 for the Big Red. They managed to keep their ranking where it was last year thanks to two wins over DePauw and close wins against Oberlin and Kalamazoo (all of which helped to erase their loss to Wabash), but doing that again doesn’t seem likely. Overall, I don’t think Denison is going to be significantly weaker than last year, but I also see no indication that they’ll make any huge strides forward. Unfortunately for them, I think the region, like all of Division III, is progressing quickly, and Denison might start to lag behind this spring.

Schedule Analysis:
Denison’s schedule is mainly filled with NCAC matchups, spring break, and a few other random matches sprinkled in. They play Chicago in February which I expect to be a beatdown, but should be good preparation for a big road weekend in early March when Denison travels to Michigan to play Hope and Kalamazoo.  The Big Red will handle Hope, but Kalamazoo is going to be a tough one, especially as it’s their second match of the weekend, whereas Kalamazoo will be coming in well rested and at home.  Right now, their schedule only shows three matches on spring break out in California against Occidental, Cerritos (JUCO), and Bowdoin.  None of those matches will affect rankings barring something crazy, and for such a long trip I wouldn’t be surprised to see another match added.  I also don’t see a regular season match with Kenyon up on the schedule yet, so look for that to be added as well. One fun match is at home in late March against Lewis & Clark. The Pioneers are a team on the rise and right now are ranked 32nd to Denison’s 33rd. The fact that this match is even on the schedule is very cool, since it’s not often teams from Oregon and Ohio face off at non-neutral sites. In general there’s been a great trend of more and more teams taking spring break trips to non-traditional places, and while Ohio in March won’t quite be like Florida or Southern California, the tennis should be great.

Keys to Success:
Doubles: Denison tends to be a good doubles team, and most of their big wins tend to start with a doubles lead. Last year their number one team of Kevin Brown and Jackson O’Gorman-Bean had a very nice season, finishing ranked fifth in the region and narrowly missing NCAAs.  With O’Gorman-Bean graduating, someone will need to step in and join with Brown to make a team capable of winning against the likes of DePauw and Kenyon.

Peaking at the right time: Part of why Denison manages to stay consistent year after year is because they find ways to win when they need to.  Last year, the blow of a loss to Wabash that could’ve really hurt their ranking was softened by two wins against DePauw in the coming weeks, the first time coming the following day, and the second one in the NCAC semifinals.  Denison can probably “afford” a loss to Kalamazoo, Oberlin, or even DePauw in the regular season if they come to play down the stretch.

Mid lineup singles: Last year Denison was around .500 at 1-4 singles, but 14-4 at #5 and 13-7 at #6.  Even with last year’s #3 Jackson O’Gorman-Bean graduating, I think the bottom of the lineup will be pretty strong for Denison.  While Kevin Brown has the game to compete at #1,I think he’s going to struggle against the top guys, so 2-4 is where Denison really needs to step up.  Jamie McDonald, Colin Bahin, and Costas Alevizopoulos are all likely to play around here, as is Owen Smith, who had a 12-3 record last spring playing mostly at 4 and 5.

Season Prediction:
The early season matchup with Kalamazoo is a biggie, and right now I think Kalamazoo takes it, though a loss won’t hurt Denison’s ranking that much, as I expect the Hornets to continue rising this spring. Much like they did against Pacific last season, I think Denison will beat Lewis & Clark to help solidify a top 40 ranking, though lots can change between now and late March. I’ll save the specific match predictions until we get much closer, but April’s showdown(s) with DePauw should be just as competitive as last year.  I don’t think Denison has the firepower to beat Kenyon in the NCAC this year, meaning the Big Red’s year-end ranking will hinge predominantly on their results against DePauw, barring any major upsets. And since both teams figure to stay ranked pretty close to each other, I see 2017 with a consistent finish right around 30, probably a bit lower.