Location: Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Coach: Eric Rodgers, 28th year
ITA National Ranking: 35
ITA Regional Ranking: 9
Blog Power Ranking: 38
Twitter Handle: @KohawkTennis. Between their massive schedule and the women’s team, expect to see plenty of tweets from this account in your timeline!
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Coe cruises through most of their schedule, with only one or two regular season losses. After winning the IIAC once again, Coe pulls an upset over Gustavus in NCAAs to finish the year with their best ranking in history.
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: Coe suffers from a couple tough early season losses to Carthage and Kalamazoo, coasts through the regular season and despite winning the IIAC again, gets trounced against a ranked team in NCAAs, ending the year outside the top 40.
Overview:
It’s good to be back. While the blog might have been quiet recently, DIII tennis was certainly still on my mind, and with the first matches only about six weeks away, it’s definitely time to get these previews rolling. Coe is a great team to start with, because it always feels like they are one of the first teams I see scores on twitter from in late January. The Kohawks play early and often, as I’m sure you know by now, and while their schedule features plenty of non-competitive matches—a nice chance for everyone on their big roster to get some playing time—there are also a number of key matchups this spring.
Schedule Analysis:
You can see the complete Coe schedule here.
Coe jumps right into things with a January 28th match at home against Chicago in a rematch of their 14-1(!) loss last year. It won’t be close, but will be interesting to follow to see what the lineups for both teams look like. This will be a big early season test for Brady Anderson, because a win over whoever Chicago puts at #1 would be a great start for his bid to try and return to individual nationals.
February has a couple of big matchups, the first against Kalamazoo. This is an excellent addition to the schedule for both teams, and a win here would go a long way towards cementing a spot in the top 40. The following week against Carthage could be a bit of a trap match, but Coe won 8-1 last year, a margin that would be tough to overcome so quickly.
A typically robust spring break schedule will have some moderate tests with Oglethorpe and John Carroll, an interesting match against up and coming Rhodes, and then another trap match against Wheaton (IL). Seven matches in five days is a lot of tennis, and facing Wheaton on the last day is not ideal.
The rest of the season features three more matches against ranked opponents. Gustavus is first up after a week off following spring break. I think the most intriguing storyline here may be at first singles, otherwise I don’t think it’ll be too close. Fast forward to April, though, and things get interesting with a matchup against DePauw. In my eyes this is one of Coe’s best chances to move up in the rankings this year, and avenge a tight loss from last year. Their usual matchup with Wisconsin-Whitewater will be another good opportunity to beat UWW for the first time since 2012 and only second time ever. Despite losing 8-1 last season, the Warhawks look to be down this year and will be susceptible. It’s hard to say what the rankings will look like by the time we get here, but regardless I have no doubt this will be a big one for both teams, especially as they head into NCAAs.
Overall, I think Coach Rodgers put together a very solid schedule this year. Despite close losses against Case Western and Wash U last year, I think Coe is better off facing teams closer to their ranking than trying to shock the world.
Keys to Success:
I’m going to skip the lineup previews because I would really be grasping at straws and instead just jump into what I think this team needs to have happen to move up in the rankings.
Brady Anderson: The face of the team at this point, Coe is going to need him to hold down the top spot, winning all the matches he “should,” pretty much all of the toss ups, and even some matches he maybe “shouldn’t” win. It’s a lot to ask, but based on his steady improvement throughout college, a monster year is not unrealistic.
Mid-Lineup: Last year seniors Riley Galbraith and Ryan Hickman held down the #2 and #4 spots pretty well. With their graduation, a void will need to be filled. Current seniors Alex Bernt, who struggled at #3 last year but made the Midwest ITA semis this fall, and James McManus, who fell to Bernt this fall 7-5 in the third in the ITA quarters, are prime candidates to step up here.
Doubles pairings: Coe changed their pairings around a lot last spring, as no team really found too much success. I guess having such a big roster makes it tempting to try many different combinations, but if Coe can cement three solid teams early on in the year, that could pay dividends down the road.
Wild card: I don’t know what to label this subheading, but what I’m trying to say is that Coe needs somebody on their roster to have taken huge strides this offseason. I think the Kohawks have a great environment to improve in, with indoor courts and a bunch of guys to push each other, so some particularly big steps up from someone or a couple guys will be crucial. One guy I’ll be watching is Nate Ackert, who had a very nice year lower in the lineup last season and has the experience to make a big difference.
Season Prediction:
I’m going to take Coe in a big 5-4 win over Kalamazoo, and the Kohawks will roll into spring break with their only loss to Chicago. Down in Florida I think Coe goes 6-1 or 7-0, with tight matches against Wheaton and Rhodes. After returning home, a not close 7-2ish loss to Gustavus will be followed by a string of wins over central teams before a big match with DePauw. I’m inclined to take DePauw for now, though I’ll certainly revisit this one when it is closer. As for their regular season finisher against UWW, again my gut tells me to take the Warhawks for now. Coe should win the IIAC with little trouble and will fall in the second round of NCAAs without much excitement.
There you have it, my first season preview! Still playing around with the format and everything, so all feedback is appreciated. Hit me up on twitter at @D3RegionalNEC, send me an email at d3regionalnec@gmail.com, or leave a comment below.