SMALL COLLEGE NATIONALS SINGLES PREVIEW
Today, there’s this thing called Small College Nationals happening at 10:30AM PT from somewhere in Arizona. Welcome to the desert, folks. Let’s hope that this is real life and not an elaborate theme park for rich people (Westworld Reference! Hit me up on twitter to discuss the newest HBO show, c’mon I know you want to). Anyways, shoutout to Watanabe of George Fox for making the tournament in both singles and doubles. Way to put George Fox on the map. The finalists are now set as Fagundes of UTT took him out yesterday, and that means another classic preview from your Boys from the Blog. RegionalAS, you’re up first. Maybe if you got this done earlier we’d have time for that drink that you apparently are waiting to get invited to. All of our picks are coming shortly in a different article.
#1 Kai Yuen Leung (Skidmore) -D3RegionalAS
Why he will win: Experience. Kai really had his coming out party the second half of his sophomore year and has never really looked back. He has been competing against top level competition and has been winning and I really expect him to begin his senior year in a big way. On top of that, his draw is pretty favorable with his two biggest challengers, Liu and Cuba duking it out on the opposite side of the draw in the first round.
Why he might not win: There is a lot of pressure on the number one seed to win the tournament, so it will be interesting to see if it affects him at all during his first round match against CMUs talented freshman. Also, as I stated above, Liu and Cuba are the next best players in the draw. I believe Liu is really the only one who has the guts and game to take down Kai, but if either of them can find a way to cruise through the finals and Kai has a tough first and second round, then it could be a recipe for disaster for the favorite.
#2 David Liu (Chicago) -D3Midwest
Why he will win: Liu is one of the mentally toughest players in the country. His rise from #6 to #2 (or #1 this year) has been more than impressive, and he seems to play his best at the biggest stage (2015 NCAAs, 2016 ITA Indoors, 2016 NCAAs). Liu thrives under pressure, and of course, this is a tournament where the guys will feel the pressure. He doesn’t have a weapon or a weakness, which makes the junior hard to beat, and he’s good at finishing points at the net when he needs to. As a solid all-around player with the will to win, Liu might be one of the favorites to take home the title.
Why he might not win: Simply put, Liu has a nightmare first round match against Lubomir Cuba, the Middlebury transfer from the University of Michigan. The Panther has proven he can be a top-notch #1 and has stormed past other solid players in the Northeast region this fall. If the Maroon gets past Cuba, I like his chances in the semi, and the final will definitely be a grind. Let’s switch gears for a moment and look at a Liu, rather than his opponents; Liu hasn’t had much exposure to top competition. Up until the conference tournament last year (I think), the Maroon was a middle of the lineup singles player. Of course, he beat Wash U #1 John Carswell and Kalamazoo #1 Branden Metzler in the Central ITA a couple weeks ago, but those might be the top two guys he’s played in his entire collegiate career thus far.
#3 Mohanad Alhouni (Gustavus) -D3Midwest
Why he will win: He’s been here before. Alhouni and Leung are the only two singles players that participated in this tournament last year. On top of that, he’s been Gustavus’ top guy for the past year and a half, so Alhouni is no stranger to facing top competition. That’s big given only two other guys in this draw (Leung and Fagundes) played #1 for their respective squads last year. Alhouni has the experience on his side, and you know he wants to top his semifinal performance from last year.
Why he might not win: While Alhouni is a good, consistent #1 player, his results don’t signal that he is one of the top singles players in the country. Of course, the guys that have won this tourney that past couple years hadn’t proven they were at the time either, but I think they had a little more mental toughness. Alhouni is someone with the talent but can drop games at important times. If he’s zoned in, he’ll go far, but if he’s not, the results will show it. Confidence is key. I’ll be rooting for him.
#4 Aman Manji (Emory) -D3AS
Why he will win: Manji is a surprise in this tournament but it’s worth noting that he was one of, if not the best #3 singles player in the nation last year. He’s also a senior, which probably is a big reason why he made this thing in the first place. The Emory product never really gets rattled and plays well under pressure, so I don’t expect any first time jitters for the man with silky smooth ground strokes. Manji has a legit shot to win this whole thing and I’m not sure who in this tournament I would say definitely beats him.
Why he might not win: Competition. Although he’s really damn good, Manji has never played three opponents like this in a row. Last year at NCAAs he had a big loss against Bowdoin (fact check D3NE note: truth, he lost to Trinka 4&6) that did the Eagles in. He’s a new player this year, but three in a row against #1 players is going to be a tough task for the former #3 player.
Arthur Fagundes (UT-Tyler) -D3TG
Why he will win: Fagundes will have the added benefit of getting to Surprise a day early and get some good tennis in, while also not having to play a particularly long match. He’s a returning nationals qualifier, and he just blew through a tough regional and another national-level match without dropping more than 3 games in any set. He’s can both grind and put balls away with his forehand. He doesn’t have the best draw, but he won’t be over-awed by the occasion, and he may be playing better than anyone in the country going into tomorrow
Why he might not win: The extra tennis might not actually benefit him after a couple more matches, especially since you’re guaranteed a two-match day at this tournament. He showed flashes of vulnerability last year. When he’s not feeling his forehand, he really can’t grind enough to beat the top players, and the draw is loaded with guys who can hit you off the court if you let them.
Nikolai Parodi (CMS) -D3Regional
Why he will win: Parodi is one of the best freshmen in the country and didn’t lose a set to anybody not from CMS in his ITA. He took out #1 seed Glenn Hull in 3 sets, and ultimately fell 7-5 in the third over the experienced Daniel Morkovine. Parodi will be playing in nationals with house money as a freshman, and will be in great position to make some noise against Alhouni in the opening round.
Why he might not win: He’s only a freshman, and will be taking on the experienced junior Mohanad Alhouni in the first round, who blew through the Midwest ITA, only losing one set. Parodi certainly has the game, but as the only freshman on his half of the draw, he simply will be taking on guys with more matches under their belts. Alhouni has been here before, losing in the second round last year to Noah Farrell 4 and 6, and he will be motivated to go further this year, this time coming in as the #3 seed.
Lubomir Cuba (Middlebury) -D3NE
Why he will win: Because he’s this year’s Noah Farrell. Much like the famed Humpty Dumpty (who once pushed Connors to 7-6 in the 3rd), Lubomir Cuba has had a great fall. Cuba blasted through the New England ITA (which I believe, it will shock you to learn, is the most talented ITA) without dropping a set, exactly like Farrell did last year. Cuba, a transfer from the University of Michigan, took down talented freshmen from Bates, Williams and Amherst, along with Indrakanti (projected #2/3 for Williams), and Arguello (projected #1/2 for Brandeis), and he did it with ease. He also made a semifinal run at the Middlebury tournament earlier this fall, where he pushed the overall #1 seed at this tournament, Kai Yuen Leung, to two very tight sets. Now that he has his DIII legs under him, watch out for the guy the blog has given such nicknames as The Dictator and #Lubotomy
Why he might not win: I basically said it in the above paragraph. He’s already lost to Leung, and while he beat a lot of talented players in the ITA, every single one of them would be major underdogs here. In addition, he has a very tough draw. David Liu’s ascension to one of the best players in the country has been about as methodical as his playing style, and he’s probably the toughest out in this whole draw. After that he’ll likely have to deal with the firepower of Al-Houni. Tough sledding, but you’d expect a bumpy road at a tournament of this caliber.
Michael Rozenvasser (CMU) -D3AS
Why he will win: Because frankly he might not know any better. Did you see the picture of Rozenvasser after he won? Cool customer right there. Michael (should I call him Mike) believes he belongs here and believes he’s the best player in the tournament. That freshman swag is going to have to take him a long way in this one. Don’t forget the kid took out MVP Buxbaum 2 and 2. Impressive. Plus, he’s lefty!
Why he might not win: It’s a tired excuse to say experience is the reason why a freshman won’t win. This is basically a juniors tournament with 8 players in it, you’re just allowed on court coaching. It probably means less to be honest. The fact of the matter is he might not win simply because he’s probably not the best player in this tournament, at least not yet. CMU has had stellar performances in singles tournaments, but the odds are stacked against him winning. Give me one upset from the young stud.
FIN. Thank you blog team, thank you Based God, and thank you D3NE for setting this up in my somewhat absence. I would like to let you all know we have some recaps and maybe even a special interview coming out soon, so don’t shade me with some “Where is the ITA Recap” BS. R-E-L-A-X. Enjoy the nationals. Go Manji. ASouth and Blog Team, OUT.
(For what it’s worth, my guess is that each year there are probably only four real contenders, and another four to six who would have been contenders if they could have gone. If correct, that makes this a fairly lame event. I’m very curious to see if that guess is correct, however!)
A suggestion for a future article: it would be great to see a longer-term history of Small College Nationals – say over the last ten years. What have been the trends, how big a deal is it to go, how big a deal is it to win, do those who advance typically “hold serve” in the Spring, what is the effect of people being overseas, how does it factor into the eventual winner of NCAA’s (both team and individuals), who didn’t go that “should” have, etc., etc.
It’s hard to have context since this is such a small (but obviously very significant) event. A longer term historical perspective of the entrants would be a great way to get that context.
This is a really great idea! Thanks for the suggestion. We will try to work something like this into our Small College Nationals preview next week.