New England ITA Preview

Happy ITA weekend, boys and girls. The New England ITA is the best thing that happens during the fall season in my 100% biased opinion. The amount of talent at this ITA is bordering on dangerous, and that’s without some of the region’s top players! The #1 player in the region and player generally thought to be the NCAA title favorite, Noah Farrell, is not in the draw after coasting to an A-Flight win at his home tournament almost two weeks ago. This opens up the draw considerably. Before seeing the draw, I thought there were 4-6 guys who might be able to take down Farrell, but two more of that group also aren’t in the draw. Luke Tercek (Bowdoin) and Ben Rosen (Bates) appear to both be abroad this fall (I assume as it’s their junior years), meaning my top contender list was cut in half.

However, one thing I want to stress about this tournament is the insane depth. It seems weird to think that 64 spots is not enough, but that’s the good problem we now have with DIII tennis. Since 2012-2013, this tournament has seen at least 2 unseeded players make the semifinals each year, and at least one #9-16 seed. That means that, AT MOST, only one top-8 player in the draw has made the semis each of the past 4 years. Why am I telling you this? 1) Because this looks to be the toughest prediction year yet, and 2) as the DIII field continues to improve each and every year, so does the talent both in and left out of this tournament. The doubles draw expanded to 48 teams this year, more on that in the doubles section, so hopefully we’ll see a similar trend in the singles draw in 2017. For now, let’s look into the magic crystal ball-ding head of D3Central, and delve into the depths of wild prognostication. Quick blurbs about a lot of guys, and tournament predictions at the end (if you’re into that sort of thing).

SINGLES

1) Steven Chen (Wesleyan): Interesting 1st round matchup against a fellow grinder in Quijano (Bates), but Chen has performed better at ITAs than anybody else in the draw. Combine that, with his fantastic spring of last season, and it’s clear why he’s the top seed. Very tough road for a #1 seed, however, with the winner of Ko/Derbani in the 2nd round, and a date with Grodecki in the round of 16.

2) Anton Zykov (Amherst): There’s been so much talk about all the Amherst freshmen and the best recruiting class in DIII history, but it’s time for Anton Zykov to remind people who will be playing #1 for Coach Doebler. Another tough 1st round matchup with Granoff (Brandeis), a former NCAA qualifier, but look for Zykov to be around come Sunday.

3) Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin): Certainly the best draw of any of the top-seeds, but at this ITA that means about as much as much as a Whammy from anybody other than Champ Kind. Wolfe is another guy who gets to everything, and will almost never beat himself. If the seeds hold and we get Cauneac vs Wolfe in the quarters, we’d be in for a fun duel of contrasting styles.

4) Carl Reid (Colby): Somehow Reid is being overlooked when I hear talk about who is going to win this tournament. The Mule senior has as good a shot as anybody, although he does have a tough road. However, if he can get through Urken (Bowdoin) and Barr (MIT), he should be a favorite to make the semis.

5) Alex Cauneac (MIT): It’s tough to call the #5 seed a sleeper pick, but that’s kind of what Cauneac is. The freshman phenom will try to transform into a super sophomore this year, and if he makes the jump usually associated with his class year, he could be holding the hardware on Sunday. However, Arguello (Brandeis) is as tough an out as anybody, and the idea of playing a freshman teammate in Cheng in the 2nd round should make things a little uneasy.

6) Michael Liu (Wesleyan): Liu has made a deep run at this tournament before, and on paper the senior has one of the easiest paths to Sunday. However, Liu also faces a good deal of unknown in Chen (Tufts), and possibly Rosovsky (Bowdoin) and Marchalik (Amherst) in the first few rounds. He’s a favorite, but you know the freshmen will be looking to make a name for themselves early in their career a-la Yaraghi, Campbell, Chen, or Cauneac.

7) Rohan Gupte (Tufts): I named Gupte a player to watch at least year’s ITA, but I worry that Rohan is not fully healthy. He didn’t play at Middlebury earlier this month, and has a tough first round matchup against a Williams freshman (more on that below). He also has a potential date with Midd transfer Lubomir Cuba in the 3rd round, and Gupte will need to be 100% (and then some) if he’s going to hold seed.

8) Ryan Bunis (Brandeis): Honestly, I’m a little surprised that Bunis got the #8 seed ahead of Grodecki. Don’t get me wrong, both are deserving, but with the tournament being played at Williams and Bunis only going 1-1 at Midd two weekends ago, I had him pegged as #9-16 seed. In any case, Bunis will not have an easy weekend, as he gets Tiago Eusebio (Wesleyan #3 from last year) in the 1st round, and has potential matchups with winner of Matingo/Raghavan (Trinity/Williams) and the big hitting Murad in the 3rd round.

#9-16’S TO WATCH

Brian Grodecki (Williams): As I said, I’m a little surprised Grodecki wasn’t seeded higher. How was he rewarded for his lower seed? By drawing a very tough out in Zain Ali (Tufts) as his 1st round opponent. The hometown favorite will also have to take down #1 Steven Chen in order to make the quarterfinals. However, Grodecki had a good ITA last year, and I think we’ll be seeing big things from the Eph in 2017.

Lubomir Cuba (Middlebury): Cuba is Middlebury’s highly touted recruit who waltzed his way into the semis of the A-Flight at Midd two weeks ago before falling 5&6 to Leung (Skidmore). Another player who had a strong case for a top-8 seed, Cuba has a nice draw that will likely leave him either Gupte (Tufts) or Taylor (Williams) in the 3rd round, before a hypothetical quarterfinal date with Zykov (Amherst).

Joachim Samson (Wesleyan): Like Cauneac, Samson is looking to build off a fantastic freshman campaign. The fact that he’s seeded above Eusebio should give us some insight into how highly Coach Fried views his sophomore. He beat Trinka in the 1st round of last year’s ITA, and if he’s made the leap, he could become the close to the best #3 in the country. That being said, he drew a fellow hot-shot sophomore in Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin), and would then have to play Deepak Indrakanti (Williams) who recently played as high as #2 for the Ephs in their dual match with Vassar.

Vlad Murad (Colby): Murad, Colby’s big-hitting European senior, has a nice little draw, with his toughest match before the quarter a hypothetical matchup with Bunis (Brandeis). Murad’s style of play makes him likely to beat anybody in the draw, but also allows him to be susceptible to an early upset. If Murad makes it to Saturday with his body intact, I’d fear him just about as much as anybody in the draw.

UNSEEDED TO WATCH:

Tyler Barr (MIT): Much was made of Barr’s big freshman year, where the Engineer went undefeated at #3 singles during the regular season. I’m a little surprised he didn’t get a #9-16 seed, but with so much talent in the tournament there were bound to be players left out. Barr will take on Orkin (Emerson) in the 1st round, and then would play the winner of the Reid (Colby) vs Urken (Bowdoin) match. If Urken/Reid is a long one, Barr might have the upper hand and move onto Saturday.

Hamid Derbani (Middlebury): Derbani is kind of like your DIII version of Del Potro. He his the snot out of the ball on his forehand side, but makes more unforced errors than Coach Hansen would like. When he’s on, he’s really difficult to beat, which is the perfect recipe to get you onto my unseeded players to watch section. Combine the style of game with his semifinal run at Midd a few weeks ago (a semifinal loss to Farrell makes it that much more impressive), and Derbani would make a good long-odds bet if such a thing existed. However, his draw is about as tough as it gets seeing as he has the 5-star MIT sophomore Ko in the 1st round and then #1 overall seed Steven Chen in the 2nd.

Deepak Indrakanti (Williams): Deepak had an excellent freshman year at the bottom of the Williams lineup, and he was a good candidate to make that freshman->sophomore leap that I’ve already touched on. Apparently he did not disappoint, playing #2 against Vassar ahead of Shastri and Raghavan and dispatching his opponent 1&1. He gets a matchup with Cassady (Gordon) in the 1st round, followed by the winner of Samson/Jiang if he’s successful. Tough 2nd round matchup, but there should be no easy 2nd round matchup for a non-seed!

FRESHMEN TO WATCH:

Alex Taylor (Williams): The Ephs brought in three 4-star freshmen this year, and only one of them is in the singles draw. Taylor went 4-0 against Vassar and Springfield, including dropping only six singles games between the two matches. Playing on his home courts gives the young Eph an advantage, and I’m not convinced that his 1st round opponent (#7 Rohan Gupte, Tufts) is fully healthy. I could be way off here, and Gupte might roll Taylor and move on, but I think this has the potential to be a great 1st round match.

Oscar Burney and Josh Marchalik (Amherst): This seems a bit obvious, but this is our first look at Amherst’s vaunted class. Only Burney and Marchalik are in the singles draw, but Kaplan and Fung are in the doubes draw. The two freshmen in the singles draw are in over Bessette (unless he’s dinged up), who played as high as #2 at points last season. Both Burney and Marchalik drew #9-16 seeds, and Burney has a fairly easy draw as far as this tournament goes. This weekend obviously won’t be enough to pass judgement, but I’ll get into the Amherst freshmen more in my team-by-team ITA recap next week. One other thing to note, 5-star Gabriel Owens is not in either draw.

KEY 1ST ROUND MATCHUPS: I’ve already talked about almost all of these and people tell me that I need to shorten up my articles. So here are some matchups sans analysis.

Sean Ko (MIT) vs Hamid Derbani (Middlebury)

#9-16 Brian Grodecki (Williams) vs Zain Ali (Tufts)

#5 Alex Cauneac (MIT) vs Michael Arguello (Brandeis)

#4 Carl Reid (Colby) vs Grant Urken (Bowdoin)

#7 Rohan Gupte (Tufts) vs Alex Taylor (Williams)

#9-16 Joachim Samson (Wesleyan) vs Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin)

#2 Anton Zykov (Amherst) vs Brian Granoff (Brandeis)

DOUBLES

Best odds: #1 Cauneac/Lilly (MIT), #2 Reid/Murad (Colby), #3 Wolfe/Jiang (Bowdoin)

Shocking that the favorites to win the doubles tournament would be the top-3 seeds; however, what have you noticed about these three teams that is different than almost all the other teams in the field? THEY PLAYED TOGETHER LAST YEAR! I thought Reid and Murad would get the overall #1 seed, and the seniors are my pick to win it all, but both the MIT and Bowdoin teams had great 2016s as well. Doubles draws, in general, are total crapshoots, but when you throw in all the talented freshmen, new pairings, and 16 extra teams, this is basically impossible to predict, so I’m not going to spend much time on it!

NEW TEAMS TO WATCH: Kaplan/Fung (Amherst), Cuba/DeQuant (Middlebury), Glover/Quijano (Bates).

Kaplan/Fung is a freshman team from Amherst, but they certainly have the pedigree. Kaplan was the #1 player in New England, and Fung was a top-50 recruit for awhile. Neither is in the singles, so they can focus solely on the dubs and remain well rested. Cuba/DeQuant will try to bounce back from a surprising 1st round loss at Middlebury earlier in September. I’m expecting big things from this pair this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them play #1 at some point. The team they lost to at Midd, Glover/Quijano are my final new team to watch. Glover is a freshman and Quijano is a sophomore for Bates. Quijano only played #3 dubs last year, but this team made the finals of the A-Flight at Midd with relative ease and we know Bates has a reputation for producing top doubles teams. Both the Amherst team and the Bates team have favorable draws as well, and might well end up playing each other for a spot in the quarterfinals.

PICKS

I just can’t bring myself to pick the unseeded semifinal run, even though history tells me it’s a sure thing.

Singles semis: #5 Cauneac (MIT) def #1 Chen (Wesleyan), & #2 Zykov (Amherst) def. #9-16 Marchalik (Amerst)

Singles finals: #2 Zykov (Amherst) def #5 Cauneac (MIT)

Doubles semis: #8 Taylor/Grodecki (Williams) def. #5 Zykov/Marchalik (Amherst) & #2 Reid/Murad (Colby) def. #4 Derbani/Schlanger (Midd)

Doubles finals: #2 Reid/Murad (Colby) def. #8 Taylor/Grodecki (Williams)