NCAA FINALS PREVIEW: #4 BOWDOIN VS. #3 MIDDLEBURY
Happy last 24 hours of the team season, boys and girls! Tonight I’m bringing you a preview of tomorrow’s NCAA Finals all by my lonesome, because as the Guru pointed out earlier today, we are guaranteed a fifth NESCAC national champion over the past seven years. Both of these teams have overcome adversity this year, but I won’t get too sentimental as D3AS will surely pen his “Journey of a champion” article where he recounts everything that led the winning team to the pinnacle of our fine sport. However, I will do a brief bit on how these two teams got to where they are today, simply because I can’t help myself. There are oh so many story lines coming into tomorrow’s final, Coach Hansen’s continued improvement, Bowdoin as the team of destiny, the dancing polar bear, etc. Imagine, if you would, one of those cheesy montages before any big sporting event. The one that’s usually narrated by Bob Costas, or some celebrity who has nothing to do with the sport…
They say that a good drama has three acts, and in the theater of 2016 Division III tennis, we’ve reached the spirited conclusion. However, before we can understand the play, we must first know the players. From the frozen tundra of Brunswick, Maine, Bowdoin’s year started full of promise, but lacking experience. A singles lineup that is now comprised of 5 underclassmen, this gang of Polar Bears is in uncharted territory, both for the people, and the program itself. With dramatic come from behind wins from 3-0 down against Johns Hopkins in the quarterfinals, and 2-1 down against an undefeated Emory team in the semis, this Bowdoin team will unquestionably go down as the best in school history. But these particular Polar Bears remain hungry for more. Tomorrow they will do battle with an old foe, the Middlebury Panthers. Led by a couple of All-American seniors, the nation’s best singles player, and arguably the most successful coach in DIII history, Middlebury was a trendy preseason pick to bring home the hardware. An early season loss to CMS had the experts questioning their mettle, but a couple of lineup switches and some phenomenal doubles have put Midd right back where they started the year, title favorites. On Wednesday, Midd and Bowdoin will do battle for the third time this season. Middlebury was victorious in the previous two encounters, but as with any good drama, the final act is all anyone will remember. For the Polar Bears will the third time to be the elusive charm? On the other side of the net, Middlebury is hoping baseball rules apply, three strikes means you’re out. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2016 NCAA Division III tennis finals.
#1 dubs: Trinka/Tercek (Bowdoin) vs Derbani/Campbell (Midd)
Regular season: Midd wins 8-5, but it was Smolyar/Farrell.
NESCACs: Midd wins 8-6.
NCAAs: Money doubles match right here. Tercek/Trinka lost another close match today, and it seems to be a theme of late. However, Derbani and Campbell lost their doubles match vs Chicago today as well. A couple of great seniors going at it in doubles will be opponents in singles as well (Trinka vs Campbell). I’m going to go buck the trend and take Bowdoin here, partially bc I think Tercek’s will play with some extra confidence after his big win today, and partially because I really don’t want to pick a sweep. Bowdoin, 8-6.
#2 dubs: Urken/Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Smolyar/Farrell (Midd)
Regular season: Midd wins 8-2, but it was Derbani/Campbell over Wolfe/Jiang.
NESCACs: Midd wins 8-4, but it was over Wolfe/Jiang.
NCAAs: It seems unlikely that Wolfe will be in the doubles lineup tomorrow. Frankly, I just hope he’s ok enough to go out in the singles. Urken and Jiang got beaten pretty soundly today, albeit by possibly the best #2 team in the country. Smolyar/Farrell came up big in tight spots against Chicago today, and should be big favorites tomorrow. This is probably the match with the biggest edge out of any of the nine spots. Midd, 8-3.
#3 dubs: Savage/Roddy (Bowdoin) vs Schlanger/de Quant (Midd)
Regular season: Bowdoin wins 8-2.
NESCACs: Midd wins 8-5, but it was Van der Geest/de Quant.
NCAAs: The only time these two exact teams met, Bowdoin ran away with an easy 8-2 win. Savage and Roddy came back from a 6-4 deficit today to get what turned out to be an unbelievably crucial doubles point. However, Schlanger and de Quant have been playing VERY well of late, and rolled past Chicago today. My head says Midd, but this will be Savage’s last time on the court, and I just can’t pick against a senior who knows how to win. Meh, yes I can. Midd, 9-7.
#1 singles: Luke Tercek (Bowdoin) vs Noah Farrell (Midd)
Regular season: Farrell wins 7-5, 4-6, 6-2.
NESCACs: Farrell wins 6-3, 6-2.
NCAAs: Tercek could not have been more money today. Down a set against Mosetick, and at the spot that all the bloggers thought Emory had its biggest advantage, Tercek came charging back and ran away with the 3rd set. He always uses a lot of serve and volley, but used it as a weapon today, executing the play very well and using it almost 100% of the time. However, while Rafe is a top-5 player in the country, Farrell is the top player in the country, and he’s beaten Tercek twice already this year. I hope Tercek gains some confidence from his win today, because if Bowdoin stays competitive here then we should get some great tennis tomorrow. Midd, 6-4, 6-4.
#2 singles: Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs Ari Smolyar (Midd)
Regular season: Smolyar beat Trinka 6-2, 6-0
NESCACs: Wolfe led Smolyar 6-3, 2-4, but it ended unfinished.
NCAAs: Something that will likely get lost in today’s dramatics was the fact that Smolyar overcame a 5-2 2nd set deficit against David Liu and fought back to 5-5 before Campbell clinched on the next court. Ari has a history of somewhat un-clutch play at NCAAs, so this was awesome to see. On the other side of the net you have Wolfe, who took Jemison (the best #2 in the country) to 6-4 in the 3rd set today. However, Wolfe looked very gimpy at the end of his match, and as I said in the doubles, I’m worried about his health. I’m going to take Smolyar, because I think Wolfe is less than 100%. Midd leads, 6-4, 2-3.
#3 singles: Luke Trinka (Bowdoin) vs Palmer Campbell (Midd)
Regular season: Campbell beat Wolfe 6-4, 6-2
NESCACs: Trinka led Campbell, 6-4, 3-4, but it ended unfinished.
NCAAs: Matchup for the ages right here. Campbell has clinched more matches this year than any other Panther (no stats to back this up), and he came through again today. Meanwhile, nobody was more clutch today than Luke Trinka. Holding down the fort against the previously undefeated (at #3) Manji and winning his match in two of the longest sets of the year. Both guys are seniors, both are playing as well as they ever have, and I can’t believe that one of these guys might have to lose the last match of his career. Luckily, both qualified for NCAA doubles, but that will only slightly water down the sting of a Finals loss. While I hope this match has all the drama of yesterday and today, if a match were ever going to go unfinished, I think it might be here. TIED, 6-4, 3-6, 3-3.
#4 singles: Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin) vs William de Quant (Midd)
Regular season: Jiang wins 6-4, 2-6, 7-5, but it ended after the match was decided.
NESCACs: De Quant led, 6-2, 5-6, but it ended unfinished.
NCAAs: I’m not sure anybody in Kalamazoo is playing better at their position than de Quant. He was first off the court against Wash U when he dismantled Haugen 0&1, and was again first off today when he beat Pei in straight sets. Jiang has some heroics to his name this tournament, and this is yet another match where neither guy is an overwhelming favorite (sense a theme?), but the slight edge goes to de Quant. I’ll be damned if I go against the slight edge. Midd, 7-6, 6-4.
#5 singles: Gil Roddy (Bowdoin) vs Hamid Derbani (Midd)
Regular season: Derbani wins 6-1, 6-2.
NESCACs: Derbani wins 7-5, 6-4.
NCAAs: I used this stat in a previous article, but Roddy is 16-1 in 2016 when his opponent isn’t Hamid Derbani. Unfortunately he’s 0-2 against the Panther junior. I find it tough to believe that Derbani beats Roddy in straight sets again, but perhaps he just matches up to perfection? This is a match that Bowdoin certainly can win, and might just turn the tide in their favor, but fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, I’m taking Hamid. Midd, 6-3, 6-4.
#6 singles: Grant Urken (Bowdoin) vs Kyle Schlanger (Midd)
Regular season: Urken beat Van der Geest 6-7, 6-2, 6-4.
NESCACs: Urken beat Van der Geest 6-4, 7-5.
NCAAs: This is the only matchup that has not been played earlier this season. Want to know something fun? Urken and Schlanger are a combined 28-1 this year, with the only loss coming from Schlanger today. Who says playing #6 isn’t important? Urken beat Van der Geest twice earlier this year, and certainly had a better day today than his Panther opponent. I’ve said it all year, I’ll pick Urken until he lets me down. Bowdoin, 7-5, 6-4
MATCH PREDICTION: Midd def. Bowdoin 5-2 and sends Smolyar and Campbell off into the sunset! Here’s hoping for another great match and just as much drama as the past couple days!
Unbelievable that Nescac only got 1 pool c spot. Seems like you have to beat a top 5 team nowadays to even make the tournament. Have to feel sorry for Wesleyan/williams guys for having good years and still missing the big dance.
The NESCAC is way better than the UAA. I think teams like Williams, Amherst, and Wesleyan would even beat Carnegie Mellon this year. I know CMU made it in to the tournament while those three did not.
Any preview of the ladies final coming? Having the top two teams in the final seemed inevitable, but I would love to see a preview.
Do you guys have any info on when they’re releasing the individuals draw?
In past years it’s been about 36-48 hours before the start time (Thursday morning), however this year we’ve heard that the draw might not be released until this afternoon or even this evening. Quick turn around for a bracket challenge, but as soon as we know something, you will too!