ASouth’s NCAA “What to Expects”

I’m back here on the Amtrak and I guess it’s time to write another article.  Normally I’d be browsing Facebook or something but since the internet is basically run by a fat hamster running on a hamster wheel, this means that I have to do something not on the webs.  Or, I have to do something that requires as little web access as possible.  That means I get to write an article for you guys that ISN’T your run of the mill NCAA Preview article.  We put a lot of time into predictions and analysis which I know you guys love, but I don’t think enough time is put into the people aspect of the sport.  You know, the relationships, the fun stuff, the intangibles.  These are all really important factors when it comes to DIII Tennis and this article will focus a bit on that.  I do similar articles to this one for Indoor Nationals as well as the UAA Tournament, which are two of my favorite tournaments of the year, so it would only make sense to do it for the beast that is the NCAA Tournament.  Let’s go through a rundown of random superlatives and observations about the upcoming Elite 8 teams and see where we get.  Then, I’ll maybe do a “10 Things To Watch” or a senior rundown or something to finish off this tasteful article.  Let’s just call this one “ASouth’s NCAA What to Expects.”

Most Likely to Surprise Everyone with a Win

This category basically knocks Emory out because I think everyone is expecting them to win it all.  I think the team most likely to surprise everyone with a win would be CMS. Middlebury is kind of being assumed as a runner-up right now (especially by D3NE).  CMS is coming off that dreadful doubles performance against UT-Tyler (I don’t care how good at doubles they are, it was dreadful).  They are playing the supremely touted Chicago Maroons in the Elite 8.  Remember, that was a team that was considered a potential national title favorite.  People seem to love jumping on the Chicago bandwagon late in the year.  Everyone is overlooking the defending champions right now.  It’s like the whole Nichols situation from a few years ago, except a little less exaggerated.  With a senior captain in Skyler Butts playing #1 singles and doubles, expect tones to be set by CMS and I would not underestimate their title hopes.  Everyone seems to be overlooking them and even picking them to be upset (including me), but I go back and forth on my good days and bad days.  Watch out for the defending champions.  They have a lot to prove once again.

Most Likely to Lay an Egg

This is an observation that I definitely wouldn’t want to have.  Now, this doesn’t mean the team isn’t good and doesn’t mean they are going to lose, but it does mean they might have the lowest relative floor than any other team.  I think the team that is most likely to lay an egg is Chicago.  Something about Chicago this year has worried me and it’s not because of the players.  I love each and every one of the Chicago players for their grit and their hard work.  But, something about this season just hasn’t gone right for them.  They were supposed to take a step forward and have really stayed in about the same place despite the addition of a strong freshman in Pei.  It’s almost like there is a raincloud over Chicago’s season.  Now, a sick performance from Chua or something can easily brighten these days.  Again, Chicago also has the opportunity to pull two big upsets and I think they have a lot of potential to do that.  They are probably the second most likely to surprise everyone.  I just feel like it’s been an up and down season for the Maroons and people are starting to think they are back in the national championship conversation once again.  I would advise to be wary.  Chicago is a true wild card right now.

Most Tight-Knit Team

Something that is almost never mentioned on the blog or really anywhere is how tight-knit a team is. Now, there are certain requirements for team chemistry and pretty much all of these teams are spending a lot of time with each other, but I feel like you get some vibes from certain teams that they like each other a whole lot both on and off the court. The old Kenyon teams reminded me of this (way back in 2010) as well as the most recent CMS teams. So, who do I think is the most tight-knit team in the Final 8 right now?  It’s a pretty damn tough one.  My gut tells me to go with one of the following teams – either Emory, Middlebury, Bowdoin, or Kenyon.  Not to say the other teams aren’t tight-knit, but I get a strong vibe out of these four teams regarding team chemistry.  If I were to pick one, I’d probably pick Bowdoin.  I can only imagine, but there really isn’t much do up in Maine all the time.  That means a lot of time with the tennis team.  Those road-trips? Damn, those things are long.  Even though they’ve brought in Jiang and Urken into the singles lineup as freshmen, these guys have come together and have always been a program that really focuses on team chemistry.  I remember the days when Bowdoin would cram like 16 team members into a Spring Break house where they’d all sleep on the floor.  I’m not sure if they still do that, but it’s working this year.  If only Sam King were still on the team to experience this.  Bowdoin has no players who I would deem to be potential team busters and it seems like all the players fit the same mold.  Again, if I had to pick, I’d pick Bowdoin.  That being said, I would LOVE to hear all of your thoughts from people who know the players better than I do about some experiences these teams have had together to make them the strong products they are today.  That’d be awesome!

Most Likely to Have the Worst Diet

Well, this is a really easy one and I wanted to throw it in here because it’s pretty funny.  There’s been this joke with the Kenyon team since like the 2000’s that Coach Thielke doesn’t necessarily go with the best eating habits for his team.  This has been dubbed #TheThielkeDiet on twitter by Kenyon alumni and players alike.  I think it’s downright hilarious.  I swear I saw Kenyon come into a match after just eating In N’ Out on Spring Break once.  Yesterday, the team dined at Outback (which is a step up from the usual).  I can just imagine the Lords chowing down on Bloomin’ Onion appetizers.  Kenyon wins this one in a landslide.

Best Singles Matches of the Quarterfinals

This is a tough one.  I’m going to nominate a few of the singles matches that I think will be really damn close and showcase the skill that Division III Tennis has to offer.  I think we know who one is, but what about the others?

#2 Singles, Middlebury v. Wash U – Ari Smolyar (Midd) vs. Johnny Wu (WU)

This is going to be one HELL of a match.  Both these guys can stay on the court forever.  Both of them bring a ton of intensity.  It’s a different type of intensity, but it’s intensity.  Smolyar has the propensity for getting extremely emotional on the court.  When things are rolling for him, they are rolling well.  But if they aren’t, things can end quickly.  Meanwhile, Johnny Wu is just a rock.  Seriously, the dude is like one of those rocks that you throw on the sidewalk and they never break.  I expect the points in this one to be at least 10 shots every point (which is pretty tough at this level) and I am praying to the gods that this one finishes.

#6 Singles, CMS vs. Chicago – Lestter Yeh (CMS) vs. Peter Leung (Chicago)

If I had either of these two guys playing #6 singles for me I’d be downright ecstatic.  Both of these two are gamers.  Leung has been on a bit of a downtrend this year but let’s not forget that he has ample marquee wins way higher in the lineup.  He also has that fire that I personally think is unmatched on the Chicago team and many teams in general.  Yeh, meanwhile, has silently stayed out of the lineup for a while and is getting his first NCAAs shot.  These two at #6 singles should provide everyone with some amazing shot making and potentially a match decider.

#1 Singles, Emory v. Kenyon – Rafe Mosetick (EU) vs. Sam Geier (Kenyon)

I made this something to watch in my Emory vs. Kenyon preview and this will not change.  Geier won the last match on shot-making on a fast indoors surface and Mosetick’s home turf is the outdoors.  That being said, Geier’s home turf has been Planet Earth this year.  This is a matchup between 2 of the best 3 players in the country at this very moment.  Team match be damned, watch some Rafe vs Sam on Monday morning.

#3 Singles, CMS vs. Chicago – Daniel Morkovine (CMS) vs. Sven Kranz (Chicago)

I feel like both of these guys have gotten unfair judgment in their careers and it just so happens to line them up for a marquee matchup in this quarterfinal.  Morkovine started this year slow and has come into his own while Kranz has pogo-sticked all over the lineup before settling in at #3 singles.  Morkovine has a propensity for going 3 sets no matter who he plays and Kranz also has the tendency to do so as well.  Both these guys are very crafty players and are some of the more experienced players in the tournament at this very moment.  While I don’t expect it to be loud on this court, I do expect it to be close and full of drama.

Best Doubles Matches of the Quarterfinals

#1 Doubles, Hopkins v. Bowdoin – Buxbaum/Dubin (Hop) vs. Tercek/Trinka (Bowdoin)

The former #1 NE team goes up against a team that has taken all the way until now to figure out their season.  Buxbaum and Dubin have the pedigree and the need to win this match.  Tercek and Trinka, well they have the results.  If we were on ESPN right now, Stephen A Smith or Skip Bayless would be crowing about how Hopkins has a ton of momentum and that their two studs can take them to the promised land.  While I don’t think the latter is true, at least this #1 doubles match should be a fun one to watch.

#3 Doubles, Middlebury v. Wash U – De Quant/Schlanger (Middlebury) vs. Bush/Kratky (Wash U)

Bush and Kratky at #3 doubles is something I thought I’d never see, but Bush at #5 singles is happening so why not throw this one in there as well.  The Wash U #3 team is a team I would favor over anyone… except against Middlebury.  The Midd duo has barely lost all year and despite having a severe experience deficit in this one, they could pull a nice surprise for Midd.  If they win this match, it might be a Middlebury sweep.  Bush/Kratky have been playing for what seems like forever (I always think Bush is a senior) and they have a lot of great team chemistry to play off of.  This should be one of the better doubles matches of the quarterfinals and a potential swing match.

#1 Doubles, CMS v. Chicago – Butts/Morkovine (CMS) vs. Chua/Liu (Chicago)

Chua and Liu took the central region by storm this year in the fall, winning the ITA and showing they are way more than a #3 doubles team like they were last year.  Their returns are downright nasty and their shot-making is really incredible.  Well, they go up against another baselining, shot-making duo that got the better of them the last time out.  Will you go with the experience in Butts/Mork, or will you go with the boom or bust pick in Chua/Liu? The fact that doubles is just a pro-set makes this the potential to be a match of “whoever gets hot” at the right time.  That is really intriguing to me.

Coach with the Biggest Impact

Another thing we kind of pass over a lot is the impact of coaching when matches are close or even not that close.  Preparation is key and every single coach has their own way of getting their teams focused.  There are teams who are best friends with their coach and there are teams that are a bit distanced but still have the utmost respect of their coaches.  Assistant coaches have a big role on these teams as well and I have heard countless great things about many of the assistants around the country that do way more than just “assist” as their job title says.  Anyways, there are a ton of great coaches left in the Elite 8 but I think the one coach that may have the biggest impact is Coach John Browning of Emory. Everyone can argue about the talent he has and whatnot, but after a season of undefeated play in DIII, Browning needs to keep his team focused on the prize.  NCAA’s is where teams turn up the level (especially Wash U).  Emory has Kenyon and then Bowdoin/Hopkins in the final 4.  They should be favorites for sure in both matches, but if they do play Bowdoin, that’s a team that potentially has the tools to pull an upset.  This Emory team is great, but this Emory team is not a team that can cruise all the way to a championship.  It’s up to Browning to keep that mindset fresh in these young minds.

Court Impact

I know that a lot of you don’t use Twitter all that much or don’t follow me (not the best idea), but it was tweeted out just a week ago that the courts were being resurfaced in preparation for NCAAs.  What this normally means for the KZoo courts is a much slower surface, which may or may not have an impact on the matches this coming week.  I don’t think that there is one team in particular that this hurts or helps other than maybe Johns Hopkins, who prefers the faster surfaces for their big hitters.  That being said, courts are courts and all the players have to deal with them.  At the very least, we will have amazing, resurfaced courts to play on and that is never a bad thing.  This could affect some individual matches, such as the Chua (Chicago) vs. Butts (CMS) match, the Dubin (Hopkins) vs. Wolfe (Bowdoin) match, and a few others I can’t name off the top of my head.

Commentating

Year after year, the commentating has been pretty shoddy when it comes to tennis knowledge at NCAAs.  I always hope that we will get a commentator who really knows the great sport we play and really is invested in the 8 teams remaining in the tournament.  While I don’t believe we will get commentating for the quarterfinals and semifinals, I do believe we’ll get it for the finals, which should be a nice treat.  I have a feeling this year that the commentating will be better than years past and you can mark that one down in the books.

Celeb Sightings

I have already confirmed that Colette Lewis of the famous DI Tennis blog “Zoo Tennis” (www.zootennis.com) will be attending the Elite 8 matches as she is based near Kalamazoo.  That’s great news! She’s also been reading the blog recently to get up to speed on everything that is DIII.  Also, we are expected to have a few bloggers at the tournament and we are gearing up for our T-Shirt giveaway that was so fun for us last year.  This year, I’m not totally sure who’s going to be doing it but we will get it done.  I think we did some trivia last year as well.  Expect some activity from the Blog these next 6 days!

Okay, there you have it! I fell asleep for a little on the train ride as it’s really been a long day for me.  Plus, this article is pretty long as well.  I’m really excited (can you tell) for the next six days as the best of the best in DIII will be squaring off for their respective championship trophies.  Let’s enjoy the ride together and keep checking back on the site for some more coverage, as well as the #BLOGGERREVEAL that is set to happen any minute now!