The 2016 Quarterfinals–A brief history by the numbers
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” -D3TennisGuy (RIP). Today I thought we could continue our NCAA coverage with a look at each of the Elite 8’s past five years, and what (if anything) we can learn from the past. Turns out, not all that much. Teams vary so vastly year to year, however there are certain traits that are indicative of a program. Let’s investigate.
#1 EMORY
2016: 22-3. Zero losses against DIII competition. Clearly the best regular season team in the country. #1 seed in the tournament. Hosted a regional, will play Kenyon in the quarterfinals.
2015: 18-7. Top seed at Wash & Lee Regional. Advanced to the quarterfinals before taking a 5-3 loss to Wash U. 2nd at Indoors earlier in the year where they beat that same Wash U team.
2014: 19-7. Top seed at the NC Wesleyan Regional. Advanced to the quarterfinals but fell to eventual champion Amherst (for the 2nd year in a row) 5-1. 3rd at UAAs, 3rd at Stag Hen, 5th at Indoors.
2013: 16-7. Hosted NCAA regional as top seed. Advanced to quarterfinals where they lost to Amherst 5-3. 2nd at UAAs (Wash U), 2nd at Stag Hen (CMS), 2nd at Indoors (Kenyon).
2012: 25-0. National champions and one of the best teams of the decade. Only played one 6-3 match (GAC, 1st round of Indoors) until the quarterfinals. Then the going got tough, but the tough got going. NCAA path included 5-4 win in the quarters (Hop), 5-4 win in the semis (Williams) and 5-3 win in the finals (Kenyon).
What can we learn? We know that none of the current Eagle roster was a part of the 2012 championship, so even though the 2016 team has held their composure so far, we also know that the second half of NCAAs are a different beast. In the three straight quarterfinal losses, Emory was down 2-1 twice, and had a 2-1 lead on the 2013 Amherst team. True, they are well-coached, and Browning has his share of NCAA glory, but I don’t think this team is quite as good as the 2011-2012 team, and see how close their final three matches were. Emory certainly seems to be the best team left in the draw, and my guess is they would be favored over the field at this point, but they are far from a sure thing. For better or worse, they only have one starting senior, and Rafe will have his work cut out for him with a possible slate of Geier, Buxbaum, and Butts/Farrell standing in his way. They have always been a gutty, gritty tournament team, and I’m willing to be that this year will be no different.
#2 CMS
2016: 27-4 with their only DIII losses coming to Emory and Bowdoin back in the middle of March. Hosted a regional as the No. 2 overall seed, and overcame a doubles sweep against UT-Tyler to advance to the quarters. 2nd in the Stag Hen, totally dominated the Ojai, and their singles have looked somewhat unstoppable. They take on Chicago in Monday’s quarterfinals.
2015: 32-2 with 0 DIII losses. National champions and another team in the debate for best team of the decade. Led by the seniors of Dorn, Marino, and the triple-crown winning Wood, the Stags finally got the NCAA title monkey off their back when they swept Midd and ran away with a 5-0 clinch.
2014: 30-2 with their only DIII loss coming in the NCAA finals. The Stags went into NCAAs in contention to be one of the best teams of all time, only having to play one 6-3 match (Amherst) and one 7-2 match (Whitman) during the regular season. As the #1 overall seed, CMS played two tight matches in the quarters and semis (Hopkins and Midd) before getting upset in the finals.
2013: 30-4 with only one loss to DIII competition, the one that mattered most (sound familiar). CMS went into the tourney as the overall #1 seed, only having played one 5-4 match all year (Williams), and were upended by the Ephs in the NCAA Finals. Williams was the senior heavy team and once the finals were moved indoors you just knew it was going to be a doozy.
2012: 21-7, including multiple non-DIII losses and the Swarthmore loss (#neverforget). CMS hosted an NCAA Regional and advanced to the quarterfinals where they were taken down by Kenyon, 5-0. However, CMS led in all of the other 4 matches, so that result is slightly misleading.
What can we learn? There was about as much pressure on CMS last year as I can remember there ever being on a team to win an NCAA title. They finally delivered, but graduation hurt them…a lot. This year, Butts and boys are back to prove they are still relevant in the national discussion. They obviously have NCAA title experience on this team, although one of the ways they were so successful last year (and in the past three undefeated regular season) was the strength of their doubles. This year CMS’ doubles look weak, and it will continue to get more and more difficult to overcome doubles deficits the further you go in the tournament. However, overlooking them as one of the, if not the main contender to Emory would be foolish.
#3 MIDDLEBURY
2016: 18-2 with their only DIII loss to CMS back in the first weekend of April. The overall No. 3 seed, and the team that most people regard as Emory’s biggest challenger. They have arguably the best player in the country in Noah Farrell, and they take on Wash U in the quarterfinals in one of the best coaching matchups of all time.
2015: 22-4. Hosted a regional and advanced to the finals of the NCAA Tournament with a quarterfinal win over Trinity Tx and a semifinal win over an upstart Chicago team. The Panthers fell in the finals to the CMS team of destiny (for the 3rd straight year), leaving only one place to go if they were to continue their Bob Hansen led trend.
2014: 21-5, although only one regular season DIII loss. This Midd team made the semifinals after hosting an NCAA regional and beating Case Western in the quarterfinals. The Panthers lost to CMS in a tightly contested semifinal match that should have both given Amherst some confidence, and tired out the Stags. Just another step on the Hansen improvement train.
2013: 20-5, hosted an NCAA regional, advanced out of that regional, but fell in the quarters to (you guessed it) CMS. This Midd team was the 3rd best in the NESCAC (behind Williams and Amherst), but they did exact revenge on Hopkins in the Sweet-16 and avenge their tournament loss from the previous year.
2012: 14-7 in Coach Hansen’s first year in Vermont. The Panthers were talented, but just didn’t quite put it all together, falling 5-2 in the Sweet-16 to their regional host in Johns Hopkins. I believe Midd was the 4th best team in the NESCAC that year, the lowest they have been in quite some time.
What can we learn? You all know about the upward trend. In Hansen’s 4 years, Midd has ended the year with a better result each and every time. In order for that trend to continue, the Panthers have to take home the hardware next week. The key to any Hansen team has always been good doubles. The best Midd doubles team was last year, and they rode that all the way to the finals. With their recent doubles switch, the Panthers are probably playing the best doubles in the country. Let’s just say that we’ve seen Coach Hansen ride doubles leads/sweeps to national titles before. That being said, no player on this team has ever won a national championship (Farrell winning Small College Nationals is the closest they’ve come). We all know that there’s a different amount of pressure on you at this stage of the game, but the last two runner ups have gone on to win the title in the following year (Amherst in ‘13 and CMS in ‘14).
#4 BOWDOIN
2016: 17-3 with two losses to Midd and a loss to Tufts (but with a win over CMS). Bowdoin hosted a regional for only the second in the past 5 years, and the first time as a #1 seed in that region. Now, the Polar Bears are onto the quarterfinals, where they will (for better or for worse) be a favorite over an unseeded Johns Hopkins team.
2015: 15-6, and a #2 seed at the Middlebury region. The Polar Bears fell in the Sweet 16, and lost to Midd in two very tight matches in consecutive weeks (NESCACs and NCAAs). We knew they would have the talent to take the next step in 2016, and so far so good.
2014: 12-10, and certainly a down year following the sanctions. 4th in the NESCAC, and an eventual 5-1 Sweet-16 exit at the hands of eventual champion Amherst. 2014 was a year to forget for the Polar Bears, but Coach Smith responded with two phenomenal freshman classes that now comprise ⅚ of the singles lineup.
2013: 12-3 in a season cut short by sanctions. As Forrest would say, that’s all I’ve got to say about that.
2012: 15-8, but a deceiving record. Bowdoin hosted a regional (where Trinity Texas was technically the #1 seed), and the Polar Bears advanced to their first NCAA quarterfinal since 2002. Their run was stopped short by Williams in a very tight 5-3 contest, but Coach Conor Smith’s first year was a bigger success than any Bowdoin fan could have hoped for.
What can we learn? Considering they’ve been among the top-5 since March, Bowdoin really doesn’t have the same history as all the other teams around the same spot in the rankings. If they beat Hopkins, it will be the program’s first semifinal appearance. They are a young team, but the 2011-2012 quarterfinalist team was young as well (Pena was the only senior). IF they get past Hop, they have the depth to hang with Emory, and with Emory’s high expectations the Polar Bears will have no pressure on their shoulders. However, that was a big ‘if” at the start of that previous sentence.
#6 WASH U
2016: 18-5 with a late season surge to finish 2nd at UAAs and earn the #6 seed at NCAAs. The Bears are looking to advance to their HOW MANY Final-Four in the past 5 years, They hosted a regional for the 50 billionth straight year, and scraped by a really tough UWW team to advance to the quarterfinals where they will take on Middlebury.
2015: 22-6. Wash U hosted an NCAA Regional, beat Whitman 5-4 to advance to the quarters, upset Emory to advance to the semis, but fell to the eventual champion Stags. The Bears did win the 3rd place match over Chicago, however. 3rd at Indoors, 2nd at the Stag Hen, and 2nd at UAAs.
2014: 21-3. This was a damn good team, 13 ranked wins and only one DIII loss during the regular season earned them the #2 overall seed.. 1st at Indoors, 2nd at Stag Hen, 1st at UAAs. Eventually this Bear team lost 5-1 to Trinity Tx, whom they had beaten 6-3 earlier in the year. It’s a total shock that this was the Wash U team that didn’t make the Final-Four.
2013: 20-7. What seemed like a down year for the Bears turned into just your average run-of-the-mill NCAA semifinal appearance. Hosting a region with a favorable draw, then soundly beating Kenyon in the quarters before losing to the eventual champion in Williams.
2012: 18-8. 4th at Indoors with all three matches being 5-4 decisions. 4th at the Stag Hen, but 2nd in UAAs. Earned a hotly contested bid to NCAAs where they upset Amherst in the quarters in one of the biggest tournament upsets in recent history. The Bears then fell in the semis and finished 4th in the country, seemingly validating the NCAA committee’s selection.
What can we learn? This team comes to play when it matters most. Who among us didn’t count them out this year at one point or another. Even our resident historian, El Gùrù had his doubts, and he’s a big time Wash U believer. Their method used to be doubles, but Coach Follmer really shapes his method based on the team he has to work with. We’ve seen them be strong at the top with Putterman, and we’ve seen them be strong at the bottom with impressive depth (2015). Never count this team out, I’ll try not to make that mistake next year. Midd should be very concerned, and if they’re looking ahead to a CMS rematch, the Bears will pounce.
#7 CHICAGO
2016: 17-5. Hosted an NCAA Regional as the No. 7 seed, and advanced to play #2 CMS in the quarterfinals. A program best 2nd place finish at Indoors, but a 4th place finish at UAAs as the Maroons lost to both Wash U and CMU in back-to-back tight matches. With all they hype, Chicago was expected to make it this far in 2016, but a win over CMS and a second straight Final-Four appearance would be a large accomplishment at this point.
2015: 19-7. A regular season win over Kenyon, and a third place finish at UAAs with a resounding 8-1 win over CMU in the 3rd place match earned Chicago a Pool-C bid to NCAAs. They were the top seed at the UWW hosted NCAA Regional, and advanced to the program’s first ever NCAA Quarterfinal. There, they outlasted No. 2 seed Amherst, before falling to Middlebury in the NCAA semifinals. Chicago lost the 3rd place match to Wash U, and finished #4 in the country, obviously a program best.
2014: 11-9. Some thought Chicago was poised to take a step forward in 2014, unfortunately the Maroons barely treaded water. A third consecutive 5th place UAA finish meant no NCAAs
2013: 14-5. Coach Tee’s first year at the helm brought immediate improvement, but this team was still not quite ready to contend. They finished 5th at UAAs again, but there was hope on the horizon.
2012: 11-9. 8th place at Indoors, 5th place at UAAs. A team that was not all that close to making the NCAA tournament, let alone doing any damage.
What can we learn? This is probably the most enigmatic team left in the field other than Hopkins (as they are the most inscrutable team in recent memory). They absolutely have the talent to make a run, and they can convince themselves they have the experience from last year’s run, even though they haven’t gotten past the semis. This is still new territory for the Maroons, and with the way their doubles has been playing, the Stags (with championship experience) are going to be more than just a tough opponent. Chicago remains a team on the rise, but if they fall in the quarters, not many people will be all that surprised. It’s both a great accomplishment (back-to-back quarterfinals for the first and second time in program history) and a bit of a let down (back in February, multiple bloggers had them reaching the NCAA Finals and some even had them winning it).
NR KENYON
2016: 14-9. 8th place at Indoors, including two 5-4 losses. An early season loss to UWW, a 5-4 win over UT-Tyler but a 5-4 loss to Trinity Tx at the Stag Hen, a 5-4 loss to CMU in April, and Kenyon’s season had all the makings of a disappointment. With their 10th straight NCAC conference tournament win, the Lords qualified for NCAAs and ended up the #2 seed in the Case Western region. The Lords upset Sparty, and now have a date with Emory in the quarterfinals.
2015: 20-6. 5th place at Indoors, but two wins over top-10 CMU and it seemed like Kenyon was ready to make a run at NCAAs. The Lords hosted an NCAA Regional, but fell to Johns Hopkins in the Sweet-16, much like CMU did this year. A disappointing way to see a guy like Wade Heerboth off, and it led to some very crotchety sounds from D3Central when looking ahead to Kenyon’s 2016.
2014: 19-8. 7th place at Indoors, and an up and down season led to a #2 seed at W&L where Emory was the top seed. The two teams met in the Sweet-16, and though Kenyon had a 2-1 lead, they eventually fell 5-3 to the Eagles with their only singles point coming from Rosensteel over Mosetick.
2013: 25-4. 1st place at Indoors including a 5-4 win over defending champion Emory, earned the Lords the overall No. 2 seed at NCAAs. This Kenyon team only had one DIII Loss all year, albeit a 9-0 drubbing by CMS, and was cruising into NCAAs where they hosted a regional and advanced to the quarters after escaping Case Western’s upset bid. In the quarters the Lords were upset by Wash U (because…why not) ending the team’s season
2012: 24-5. After getting bounced in the NCAA quarterfinals in three of the past four years, Kenyon finally made its breakthrough, reaching the program’s first ever semifinals and finals. Their regular season was not extraordinary, with losses to Emory (2x), NC Wesleyan, and Cal Lu (funny to think those teams were both contenders not that long ago), but they caught fire when it counted most. The Lords swept CMS in the quarters, and beat Wash U (for the 2nd time that year) in the semis, before falling 5-3 to Emory in the finals. That was a brutal finals because Kenyon had a real chance for the doubles sweep, losing the last match on in a tiebreaker after leading that breaker 6-4.
What can we learn? Well, although these teams did play at NCAAs in 2014, both teams were so vastly different that I don’t think we should put too much stock into it. We know that Coach Thielke will have his guys fired up and ready to go, but an upset over Emory would be the stunner of the year. The Lords have not beaten Emory since 2013, and are 1-6 in the team’s seven matches over the past five years. Kenyon also must beware the “happy camper” approach, satisfied with simply making the quarterfinals after upsetting Case Western.
NR JOHNS HOPKINS
2016: 19-5. 19-5 doesn’t sound like a bad year, but when three of those losses came to Swarthmore, Mary Washington, and Christopher Newport, Hopkins fans were left shaking their heads. Going into the conference tournament, this team’s best win was against W&L back in March. As we all know, Hop went on to crush Swarthmore, sweep Mary Washington, and upset CMU 5-3 in the NCAA Regional final played indoors at CMU. Aptly dubbed the ultimate tank or tree candidate, you never really know what you’re going to get from this Hopkins team. The Jays will take on Bowdoin in the NCAA quarterfinals on Monday.
2015: 19-8. 4th at Indoors and swept Haverford and Swat in their conference tournament matches. Hop earned the #2 seed in the Kenyon region, but, in class fashion, the Jays upset the Lords 5-1 and advanced to the quarterfinals. There, they lost 5-3 to CMS in the quarters for the 2nd straight year, but this time Hop had a doubles lead and couldn’t get the job done. That team is now merely a footnote in CMS’s championship novel.
2014: 20-5, 2nd at Indoors, and nice wins over top-15 out-of-conference teams in CMU and Mary Wash earned the Jays the No. 8 overall seed and the ability to play at Mary Washington as the #1 seed in that NCAA Regional. Hop advanced without any difficulty, but ran up against #1 CMS on their home courts. The Stags had a 2-1 doubles lead, but Hop hung tough, taking CMS to their toughest match of the year at that point.
2013: 20-3. With a 5th place finish at Indoors, a split of a Texas road trip with a win over #10 UT-Tyler and a 5-4 loss against #7 Trinity Tx, and after totally dominating their conference, Hop earned the #1 seed at the Middlebury NCAA Regional. For the second time in consecutive years, Hop battled Mid with a quarterfinal spot on the line, and for the second year in a row the home team won, this time with the Panthers emerging victorious.
2012: 19-5. A fall loss to Amherst was balanced by an early season win over then top-5 NC Wesleyan. A Stag Hen split with CMS and Wash U, a 7-2 loss to Emory and a surprising 7-2 loss to Bates put Hopkins behind the 8-ball early, but the Jays rattled off 14 straight wins, none closer than 7-2, and hosted their own NCAA Regional. Hop beat Coach Hansen and Midd in the Sweet-16, but eventually lost a heartbreaker 5-4 to the eventual champion Eagles, when senior Warren Elgort fell 6-4 in the 3rd set to then-freshman Eric Halpern.
What can we learn? I almost want to leave this section completely blank, because it would better reflect what I feel that I’ve learned about Hopkins. A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, there are only two options when you’ve not so fondly referred to as the ultimate tank or tree. Well, which is it Jays…tank, or tree? Given these past five years, it sure seems like the smart money leans towards tree.