After rapid reactions, I wanted to kick off our NCAA coverage this week with my annual Q&A article. Keep checking back for additional coverage and I hope you’ve enjoyed Selection Monday!
10) What about the bracket initially pops out?
First of all, I’d like to say that the committee did a pretty good job. Not a great job, but a pretty good one. Things got a little busted because they prioritized Emory hosting and this led to Trinity TX getting a really bad draw. This happened because after Whitman and Tyler got sent to California, only four teams could even go to Emory, Trinity TX being one of them. So they obviously had to be sent there to make a full region. The Atlanta region is the most loaded in the country and I was hoping the Eagles would get sent to W&L in favor of more balanced regions, but it wasn’t meant to be. If you see my Bracketology from last night, you’ll see in my Less Likely scenario that it’s almost identical the actual bracket. I somewhat foresaw Emory hosting which is why I included that scenario.
Pool C was obviously done correctly, but the switching of Case and Chicago seeding surprised me. I was actually really looking forward to a Case-CMS quarterfinal because I thought Krimbill and Fojtasek had a good shot at winning four points against the Stags making for an interesting match.
Lastly, and as I’ll get to in more detail during the next question, the region that contains three A-South powerhouses was very interesting to me. I think there could potentially be a lot of drama in Pittsburgh this weekend.
9) What is the most intriguing regional?
We have some interesting potential Sweet 16 matches with Case-Kenyon and Wash U-Whitewater, but anywhere that Hopkins went was probably going to be the answer to this question for me. The Blue Jays season has played out in eerily similar fashion to last year and we know that they ended up running through Kenyon in the Sweet 16 before giving CMS a tougher match in the quarters than either Wash U or Middlebury did in the subsequent rounds. Now it’s possible Hopkins flames out and loses to Mary Washington as they did in the regular season, but I think they are incredibly dangerous. JHU used to have a hard time winning in the tournament, but they have made three of the past four Final 8s and have more post-season experience than the hosts. Just as Kenyon did last year, CMU really outperformed their expectations this season. That said, this Tartans team is better than last year’s Kenyon team and last year’s JHU team is better than this year’s JHU team.
I’m not giving Mary Washington enough credit here as the #2 seed, I just expect a talented JHU team to get to a level that the Eagles don’t have. The way Hopkins slept through their season is so much like last year, so I wanted to be sure not to overlook them. I think they will give a strong effort, but whether or not that results in victories over Mary Wash and then CMU is a different story. Hopkins is coming off a throttling of a feisty Swarthmore team and CMU sits at #5 in the country after one of the best years in school history, so I’m looking forward to an outstanding potential Sweet 16 match.
8) What is the most interesting statistic?
Three interesting things I’d like to touch on. The first, which has been said many times, is Middlebury’s climb the past five years. This is Bob Hansen’s fifth year in Vermont and they have taken one step forward each year from the Sweet 16 in 2012 to the Finals last year. There is nowhere to go but up and we know they will have to get through some stiff competition, including the possibility of the Wash U Bears in the quarterfinals. Wash U is looking to do something pretty incredible themselves actually. The Bears are looking to make their third Final Four in the past five years after falling out of the Top 12 in the rankings during the season. I think that is a pretty remarkable achievement given that I’m not sure if there’s anyone else who’s done that one time. It just goes to show that the Bears bring their A game late in the season. Speaking of the Final Four, we are guaranteed to have a first time participant coming from the Bowdoin-CMU quarter. During the past eight years, there have only been 10 different teams in the Final Four. That’s 32 potential Final Four spots split by only 10 teams, so this year when we get #11 (and possibly more!) it will be a pretty big deal.
7) Who are the three unluckiest teams?
Trinity TX, Emory and Case Western. I had a feeling Trinity TX could get flown to Atlanta and that’s exactly what happened. This has to be really disappointing for the Tigers. They came into this season with Final Four aspirations and wind up in the region of the top overall seed. They have an impressive streak of six consecutive years finishing in the Top 10 nationally, but that almost certainly will come to an end. They have also made the Final Eight in five of the past six seasons. With Adam Krull, this is a completely different match, but without him, I don’t think Trinity stands much of a chance.
Emory has a few tricky matches before the quarterfinals, which is likely against Case Western. Case is tough to play with their great top of the lineup, so the Eagles have quite a road ahead of them to even make the Final Four. I expect Emory to make it there with relative ease, but given they are #1 in the country with an undefeated regular season, this could be easier.
No one else got particularly unlucky and I was between Case and Skidmore for this last spot. I gave it to Case because I liked their chances against CMS in a quarterfinal, but instead they have to play a great Emory team. Kenyon is no walk in the park either and the Lords know the Spartans as well as anyone. Quite a dilemma here for blog superfan Wade Heerboth.
6) Who are the three luckiest teams?
Chicago, MIT and Bowdoin. I think Chicago got the luckiest in the bracket by quite a bit. First of all, they made it over Williams, which despite being deserved, was an accomplishment. Secondly, they avoided Trinity TX in their region after I thought that match was a strong possibility. They also are hosting and avoid traveling to Gustavus, a notoriously difficult place to play. Lastly, they somehow moved up to the #7 seed and pushed Case to #8, avoiding Emory in the quarterfinals and drawing CMS instead. Not that playing the Stags is easy as they beat the Maroons easily during the regular season, but it is easier than playing Emory. Watch out for Chicago once they make the quarters as shown by their performance in last year’s quarterfinal against Amherst.
It might be counter-intuitive to have two teams from the same region both get luckiest, but I was stretching for answers here as I don’t think anyone got exceptionally lucky outside Chicago. I’m picking Bowdoin because they have a very winnable regional and a very winnable quarterfinal. They don’t have to play the super experienced Wash U Bears and they managed to maintain the #4 overall seed despite their recent loss to Tufts. The Polar Bears absolutely deserve it after the season they’ve had, but things could have gone worse as Bowdoin has about as good of a chance as you’re going to have to make your first Final Four. I selected MIT because they avoided Middlebury and somehow got the #2 seed in the Bowdoin region over Stevens, who’s ranked #21 by the ITA. I know MIT beat Tufts, but I”m not entirely sure how they managed to jump the Ducks. MIT also has an easier potential Sweet 16 match in Bowdoin as compared to Middlebury if the Engineers manage to make it there.
5) Is there a sleeper no one is thinking about who can make the Final Eight?
I’m definitely going with Whitewater. I think most people will immediately count them out given Wash U’s NCAA pedigree, but everyone needs to remember how close the regular season match was between these two teams. It took Wash U a 3rd set when the match was tied 4-4 to beat the Warhawks. If UWW can get ahead in doubles, this could turn into another really close match. Whitewater is an experienced team that has played in NCAAs multiple times and if they can play the perfect match this weekend, they could very well wind up in Kalamazoo. I would hope for the Warhawks’ sake that they know better than to be intimidated by a team they almost beat recently.
4) Which #1 seed is most likely to be upset in a regional?
Even though they are the #5 overall seed, I think CMU is most likely to be upset. Don’t get me wrong, I think they will win against Hopkins, but I just don’t see Wash U, Case, Bowdoin or Chicago losing in their given regions. One could make an argument for Whitewater over Wash U given the result of the regular season match, but I can’t ignore the danger that Hopkins poses. I detailed the CMU-Hopkins dynamic in #9 above and I expect this to be a really good one if it happens, similar to their 5-4 match in the regular season.
3) Which 5-8 seed is most likely to make the Final Four?
I think this is pretty close between CMU and Wash U, but I’m going to go with the Bears. I know initial reactions are calling the CMU-Bowdoin match “even,” but I like the Polar Bears as a pretty big favorite in that. I know they haven’t been great down the stretch, but they did beat CMS 7-2 during the season. CMU proved they can beat their UAA rivals that they know well, but I believe Bowdoin is a different level than Chicago and Case in singles.
I’m picking Wash U as the answer to this question, because after 2012 I am done doubting their ability once they make the Final 8 and I think they can absolutely beat a superior Middlebury team. Wash U has made 7 of the last 8 Final 4s for a reason. While the Panthers look like the favorite to come out of the the bottom half of the draw, they have not been untouchable and one thing that’s a given is Wash U will be ready to play.
2) How many teams can realistically win the tournament?
This is a three horse race among the top three seeds. I just don’t think anyone else has the combination of talent, consistency and experience to win it. The top three teams are all perennial powerhouses that have coaches who are experienced deep in NCAAs.
CMS did not start all that well with a very young team, but they looked great late in the season and come into NCAAs as the #2 overall seed with a resume that includes a 6-3 win over Middlebury. CMS toughed out a great win against Pomona-Pitzer yesterday and they have a very clear path to the Final Four. If the Stags make the Finals, it will be their fourth in four years, a feat only accomplished by Williams 2001-2004. They need to have a great day to beat Emory after a 7-2 regular season loss, but they definitely have the team to do it.
Middlebury came into this season as one of the two trendy national title picks with Chicago. While the Maroons didn’t perform to expectations, the Panthers came pretty close. They won their second consecutive NESCAC title and come into the tournament as the #3 overall seed for the second year in a row after being the #4 seed in 2014. The Panthers top three players are as good as anyone, and if their doubles are clicking they will be very tough to beat. The Panthers face a daunting quarterfinal opponent in Wash U, but if they can get past that match and gain momentum, the sky is the limit for this very experienced bunch coached by Bob Hansen.
Emory did not get enough credit for the season they had. The Eagles went undefeated and did not surrender more than three points to anyone. They were really never in danger of losing. Although their doubles looked a little shaky at times, I believe their singles dominated at a level equivalent to last year’s CMS team. They are a heavy favorite to win the national title headed into this year and I really expect them to not be all that threatened until they get to the Final. Team leader Rafe Mosetick will have the Eagles focused and I think the formula is simple. If Emory can get a lead after doubles, they are not going to lose. This team is focused and different than the Emory squads of the past few years. So far, they have been better than the 2012 Emory team that won the national title, now they just need to finish what they started against some stiff competition.
1) Who are my Final 16, 8, 4, 2 and 1?
Final 16: Emory, Trinity TX, Case, Kenyon, Bowdoin, MIT, CMU, Hopkins, Middlebury, Skidmore, Wash U, Whitewater, CMS, Whitman, Chicago and Gustavus
Final 8: Emory, Case, Bowdoin, CMU, Middlebury, Wash U, CMS, Chicago
Final 4: Emory, Bowdoin, Middlebury and CMS
Final 2: Emory and Middlebury
Winner: Emory
What are your thoughts on Heerboth as an assistant coach for Case against Kenyon? How do you think it will effect both sides? And how big of an impact will it have on the result?