NESCACs Day 2 Preview

What a day of tennis, boys and girls. Two matches that seemed closer than their final scores, and their final scores seemed pretty close. In the day’s first quarterfinal, Wesleyan overcame an early deficit to defeat Tufts 5-3. Wesleyan was down 2-1 after doubles, took a commanding early lead in singles by winning five of the opening six sets, and then hung on to win a 5-3 decision that was a great battle between two talented teams. Wesleyan moves on to take on Middlebury (obviously more on that below), while Tufts’ roller coaster year comes to a close.

The bad news for Wesleyan was that their only singles loss came from Michael Liu. Liu is currently sitting in 8th in the NCAA regional rankings, and this loss will almost certainly cause him to drop below either Trinka, Reid, or possibly even Zykov depending on his NESCAC tournament. However, I’m sure Liu would gladly trade his loss today for the fact that Wesleyan now gets to play in the program’s first NESCAC semifinals! That’s a big deal. One of the many has infiltrated a conference dominated by the few. Congrats to the team and double congrats to Coach Fried who accomplished the same feat on the women’s side today as well. Truly a banner year for Wes tennis. However, if they keep it going for one more day, they might just have a shot at that final Pool-C bid…

The other semifinal was just as entertaining, ending just before 10 p.m. Amherst upset Williams 5-2, likely knocking the Ephs out of NCAA contention. Amherst jumped out to a 2-1 lead with relatively easy wins at 1&3 dubs. The addition of Zykov back in the doubles lineup allows Herst to play Fife/Bessette at #3 which proved to be a big difference. Williams leveled the match with a quick win from Grodecki at #2, but Zykov, Revzin, and ultimately Levitin all won in straight sets to push the team formerly known as the Jeffs into tomorrow’s semifinals. They will have a tough matchup against a Bowdoin team that absolute laid the hammer last time (Amherst didn’t win a single set in a 9-0 drubbing), but they are coming off their biggest win of the season, and there is a slight chance that if they win the NCAA rewards them with a Pool-C bid. It would cause outrage beyond belief, and it would certainly unfair, but I’m just saying that it’s possible. Calm down for now, let’s look at these juicy semifinal matchups.

#4 Wesleyan vs. #1 Middlebury, Saturday at 2:00 p.m.

First thing’s first, let’s take a look at the box score from the last time these two teams played. Midd came away with a 5-4 win in a 4+ hour match that came down to the last match on court. That match was played at Midd, and I’m pretty sure it was played indoors because I seem to remember the #5 and #6 starting only when a court opened up. There are a few differences in the current lineups from their early April battle, including the flip at the top of Wesleyan’s lineup, the switch at the bottom of Wesleyan’s lineup, and the switch at the bottom of Midd’s lineup. Seeing as it was so long ago, seven of the nine matchups will be different, and the match should be played outdoors, I don’t think we should put too much stock into the last match. Looking ahead, if Midd wins this match they more than likely guarantee themselves a top-4 spot at NCAAs. If they were to fall, they would certainly earn a berth through Pool-C, and would probably still be a top-5 team in the country, no matter the final outcome of this tournament. If Midd does get the W, Wesleyan’s season will end. However, if the Cards accomplish another program first, (beat Midd, beat a top-5 team, make the NESCAC finals, take your choice of firsts), they will have a very impressive tournament resume, and it’s possible that they could sneak into the tournament even with a conference finals loss (assuming it was to Bowdoin). Before looking at the matchups let’s also remember that Midd will certainly have the fresher of the legs between the two teams, which could very well play a big role down the stretch.

Doubles: Last time Wesleyan took a 2-1 lead with wins at #2 and #3, and they’re probably going to need a lead again if they want to pull off the big upset. I believe that with their recent doubles swap, the Panthers are in a better position to win at both spots. Derbani and Campbell have not lost since moving up to #1, and certainly need this match if they are to steal the final bid to NCAAs. Wesleyan’s doubles strength has been its depth, but the #2 team of Chen/Liu lost to Tufts today, which is worrisome. It’ll a battle of top singles players as Farrell/Smolyar comprise Midd’s #2 team, and I think Midd will outlast the Cardinal pair. At this point, Wes has to have #3 to stay in the match, and I think they’ll get it. Samson and Rudovsky looked good today against Tufts, and while De Quant/Schlanger have been good since taking over the 3rd spot (6-2 with wins over Williams, Tufts and Amherst), I’m taking Wes here. That’s Midd taking a 2-1 lead into singles, where I think the matchup changes actually help the Panthers.

#1 Chen (Wesleyan) vs Farrell (Midd). This is going to be a fantastic tennis match, and it’s one that Wesleyan probably has to have if they’re going to pull this off. That may sound a touch ridiculous. Wesleyan has to have the match against the best player in the country? Yeah, I think they do. Chen has not lost all year, and Farrell is coming off his first of the season (Leung last weekend). It’s certainly possible, even if Farrell is the favorite. One thing we do know, both these guys can sit at the baseline and grind away. I think this one doesn’t finish, but if Wes is close it could be the decider. Midd leads 7-6, 3-5.  

#2 Liu (Wesleyan) vs Smolyar (Midd). Before today I was very excited about this match. A real chance for Liu to prove the doubters wrong and show that he belongs in the NCAA field, now it just seems like a Smolyar win. One bad match shouldn’t have that effect, but having to play a seasoned opponent like Ari less than 24 hours after getting beaten handily by Gupte is not going to be easy. Midd, 7-5, 6-2. 

#3 Eusebio (Wesleyan) vs Campbell (Midd). This is one of only two matches that will be a rematch of the last time these two teams played. It was Eusebio’s first real match, and he got run off the court by Palmer Campbell. Campbell has been playing very well of late, and I think the senior continues his brilliance, possibly even with the clinch. Midd, 6-4, 6-3.

#4 Samson (Wesleyan) vs De Quant (Midd). Another match that I think Wes has to win (you know, when you say things like a match that a team has to win, it generally doesn’t bode well for that team), but Samson has been Wes’ most consistant point producer other than Chen this year. De Quant has also been good, and there’s a chance this one doesn’t finish, but I’ll take the freshman to give Wes it’s first singles point. Wesleyan, 6-2, 6-4.

#5 Daniels (Wesleyan) vs Derbani (Midd). Daniels showed some nice toughness today, down 1-4 early and rallying back to take the set. He’s a grinder and you should never count him out. While he may be able to slightly weather the powerful Derbani game, the Moroccan junior is simply playing at too high a level. Middlebury, 6-4, 6-1. 

#6 Roberts (Wesleyan) vs Schlanger (Midd). You guessed it, yet another match that Wes will probably need to win. Roberts got the clinch today against Coran, making it five straight wins for the junior. Schlanger took over for Van der Geest two weeks ago, and since then all he’s done is go undefeated in four matches (three against ranked teams). This is another match that might not finish, but I think the edge leans towards Wesleyan. Wesleyan leads, 6-3, 3-6, 0-1.  

MATCH PREDICTION. I have Midd clinching their spot in the finals with a 5-2 win. However, I have Wes leading the two remaining matches so if something swings their way early on, we could be in for another heck of a battle. Both of these teams are very good, and it’s a shame that my predicted result means that we won’t get to see both of them in the tournament.

#6 Amherst vs. #2 Bowdoin, Saturday at 4:30 p.m.

Like the semifinal before it, this should be a really fun matchup. However, unlike the Midd/Wesleyan rematch, the first time these two teams played it was not that close. Amherst traveled up to Brunswick and left with their tails between their legs. Bowdoin swept dubs, and then forgot to put the brooms away, as the Polar Bears not only dealt a 9-0 win, but they did it without losing a single set. Honestly, it’s the most dominant I’ve seen any team look all season. Tomorrow’s match will be different, the teams will likely do battle outdoors as the rain is supposed to hold off until later in the weekend, and there will be some new matchups as well. I could see this one being over quickly, I could see a prolonged thriller, and I could see somewhere in the middle. When in doubt, always choose the middle ground. Isn’t that right, D3AS?

Doubles: This is tricky right off the bat. Amherst’s doubles teams are playing way better than before, but Bowdoin’s doubles have not really faltered all season long (another sentence I never thought I’d be saying at the start of the season). Bowdoin’s #1 team is the best in the region, but I expect that match to go down to the wire. At #2 I think you have to give the edge to Bowdoin, even though Wolfe/Jiang are coming off a loss to Tufts. #3 is close again, which I would not have said a week ago. The team of Fife/Bessette is very good and they have some confidence again. I think #1 and #3 will both be close, and I think the teams will split those matches, leaving Amherst on the wrong side of a 2-1 deficit moving into singles.

#1 Zykov (Amherst) vs Tercek (Bowdoin). Remember how I said that if Zykov played this weekend, he was going to be a little rusty? Yeah, that didn’t happen. Tercek, on the other hand, is going to have to shake off his recent funk tomorrow, because it looks like he’s getting the real Zykov. Now, he beat the real Zykov when the two played indoors earlier this year, but I think Zykov gets him back tomorrow (if this match finishes), and earns the final bid to NCAAs. Amherst, 6-3, 7-6. 

#2 Solimano (Amherst) vs Wolfe (Bowdoin). Solimano just got absolutely wrecked by Grodecki, and now he has to go out and face one of the most consistent players in the whole conference. I have always said that Solimano would find his game and bring it at some point. He didn’t tonight, but his team gave him another chance. Oh well. Bowdoin, 6-4, 6-1. 

#3 Revzin (Amherst) vs Trinka (Bowdoin). Revzin had a nice comeback tonight against Schidlovsky, but unfortunately for the Amherst fans, Trinka simply plays at a different level than the Eph senior. Trinka should be able to wear down Revzin, and when the Amherst senior picks up his game, the ball will only come back harder. Bowdoin, 6-3, 6-3. 

#4 Bessette (Amherst) vs Jiang (Bowdoin). Nice comeback from Bessette tonight against a worthy competitor in Raghavan. This will be an all freshman battle, so there may be some nerves involved as well. Edge to Bessette there as he already had to deal with a pressure-filled conference tournament match, while this will be Jiang’s first. Jiang beat Yaraghi in two close sets last time, different player, different result this time. Amherst, 7-5, 6-4. 

#5 Fife (Amherst) vs Roddy (Bowdoin). I think it’s a battle between this match and the #1 match as to which will be the last on. The last time these two guys played, Roddy was in peak form and beat Fife with ease (2&2). Now it’s Fife who is coming off back to back big wins (technically he didn’t beat Indrakanti today, but he came back from down a set and was up 4-1 in the 3rd, while taking the pressure somewhat off of Levitin), and Roddy who has been struggling of late. I expect a battle, and an unfinished result. Bowdoin leads, 3-6, 6-3, 1-0

#6 Levitin (Amherst) vs Urken (Bowdoin). Levitin came up big for Amherst tonight, clinching the win over Sadowsky. However, Urken is a hairier beast. He’s my freshman of the year, and is 19-0 so far during his freshman campaign (at least according to the ITA). He should be favored here (and until he loses), and I think he’ll do what has become common for him, win, and possibly even get the clincher. Bowdoin, 7-5, 6-2. 

MATCH PREDICTION: That’s a 5-3 score for Bowdoin, and the Polar Bears advance to the finals.