I really liked the format that D3NE used for his NE Men’s Post-Season Update, so I’m going to copy his format and give you the NE Women’s Post-Season Update! I’ll go over each of the top 20 teams in the NE region (according to the 4/28/16 ITA rankings) and talk about NCAA Team, NCAA Doubles, and NCAA Singles chances. I’ll actually be using the 4/28/16 NCAA rankings for the doubles and singles analyses. With the upcoming NESCAC and Liberty League Championships determining a lot of things that are on the line, this should be an exciting few days to come.
1. Williams
The Ephs (#2 nationally) are most definitely a lock for the Team Tournament no matter how they do in NESCACs. As a matter of fact, as D3TennisGreek pointed out in a tweet a few days ago, all 6 NESCAC teams that are playing in the NESCAC Championships should make the NCAA Team Tournament no matter what happens in the conference tournament. Williams did suffer a 6-3 loss to Bowdoin in the regular season, but they have beaten everyone else in the NESCAC to earn the top seed this weekend. They will face the winner of #4 Bowdoin v #5 Wesleyan. That should be one heck of a matchup (last year they went 5-4 Bowdoin at NESCACs) and I’m sure Williams will have an advantage of fresher legs going into the semifinals.
In singles, Raventos is a lock. She has only lost 1 match all year, in a somewhat surprising loss to Likhanskaia. But other than that she has been dominant and should be the top entry from the NE. If Bowdoin wins their quarterfinal match against Wesleyan, Raventos may be able to avenge the loss to Likhanskaia. Williams has a whopping 5 players regionally ranked in the ITA NE but other than Raventos, no one will make the top 8. The next one down is Gancayco at #11 in the region, but her record is a bit too spotty to make up for it this weekend. She has losses to Fields (Middlebury #2), Tzeng (MIT #2), Ip (Amherst #2), and Karamercan (Tufts #2). I will add that this year’s field of #2s is significantly stronger than what we’ve had in the recent past. Two of the eight singles qualifiers will be #2s, as well as the alternate.
In doubles, Raventos/Shin currently sit at #3 in the NCAA regional rankings. In the NESCAC semifinals they will either play Bowdoin or Wesleyan, and both of those #1 doubles teams are ranked above them so cannot hurt them. In the finals, all of the teams they could possibly play (Middlebury, Amherst, Tufts) are ranked below them, so there could be some movement there.
2. Middlebury
Middlebury is another NESCAC lock for the NCAA Team Tournament. They sit at #5 nationally. They have an exciting weekend ahead, as they have a legitimate shot at a NESCAC Championship! But they’re going to have to overcome this piece of history – In 2006 the NESCAC started playing a team tournament to determine the conference champion and it has been an Amherst v Williams Final EVERY SINGLE TIME for the last 10 years! In the regular season their only loss was to Williams (happened relatively early in the season) and have been playing some pretty strong tennis as of late. In the NESCAC semifinals they will face the winner of Tufts and Amherst. I believe Amherst will prevail in that meeting (although you can’t count the Jumbos out this year!) and then it should be an all out battle to get to the finals.
In singles Gerger (ranked #3 in the region) should be a lock. Her only spring loss is to Raventos. She’ll face Ghosh or Louks in the NESCAC semifinals and I think on a normal day Gerger is just the better player, although Louks has shown some superhero moments this year. Midd’s #2 player, Fields has a good chance of making the singles tournament as a #2, although she will have to defend some turf at the NESCACs against Ip/Karamercan and then Gancayco/Cheng/Yu. In the regular season she’s had the second cleanest record as a #2, with wins against Yu (Wesleyan #2), Gancayco, Cheng (Bowdoin #2), and Ip. Her losses have come against Karamercan and Tzeng.
In doubles, Gerger/Bondy sit at #5. If Tufts wins their quarterfinal against Amherst, Midd has a chance to knock off the Tufts team of Louks/Karamercan, who currently sit at #4. That will be a huge match. If Amherst wins that match, then Midd will have to defend and then in the finals, will play for a shot in the NCAA doubles tournament, as all three #1 doubles teams on that side of the draw are ranked in the top 3!
3. Bowdoin
The Polar Bears are another NCAA Team Tournament lock, as they are ranked #6 in the nation. Their biggest win to date has got to be the Williams match, in which they swept the doubles matches and split the singles matches for a 6-3 win. However, they lost 2-7 to a surging Tufts team the following week. They will face Wesleyan in the NESCAC quarterfinals in what should be a great match. I think Bowdoin will win this match due to their depth and experience, so they should advance to the semifinals in which they will have a rematch with Williams. I do think that Williams will take the match this time to avenge their regular season loss.
In singles, Likhanskaia sits at #4 in the region and should be in. She had a great win over Raventos but then lost to Louks in the same week. At NESCACs, she’ll get chances at Eudice, Raventos, and Gerger/Ghosh. Ghosh is dangerous. She has had an up and down year and is at #12 regionally so you don’t want to lose to her but she is a good player and can win on any given day. Dangerous. Bottom line is that I see Likhanskaia getting into the NCAA singles tournament. Cheng, Bowdoin’s #2 player, is ranked #11 in the region. I think the only match that can possibly help her is if she plays Fields in the finals of NESCAC, and even then, I’m not sure a win will be enough. She has wins against Yu and Shin (Williams #3) but has losses to Tzeng, Ip, Fields, and Karamercan.
In doubles, Likhanskaia/Cheng are ranked #2. I would say they are pretty much a lock for the NCAA doubles tournament. They play Wesleyan, then Williams in the NESCACs, and both #1 doubles teams are in the top 4. Should they advance to the final, they will face a team potentially out of the top 4 but I’m not sure 1 loss will hurt them enough, as they have a pretty solid record.
4. Amherst
Amherst! Amherst always seems to bring their best play for NESCACs. No matter what their seed has been, they have made it to the finals of the NESCAC tournament. Ghosh and Ip have struggled at the top of the lineup but the middle and bottom of Amherst’s lineup have come through time and again this year to keep this team one of the best out there. Amherst is ranked #7 nationally and will face Tufts in a tough quarterfinal matchup. I’m picking Amherst to come through in this match to set up a semifinal with Middlebury. No matter what happens in this tournament, Amherst will make the NCAA Team Tournament.
But that will be it for them as I don’t see any individuals making it to the singles or doubles tournament. Ghosh is ranked #12 in the region and Ghosh/Monteagudo is ranked #7 in the region. But what if Ghosh beats Louks, Gerger, and Raventos in the NESCACs? And Ghosh/Monteagudo beats Louks/Karamercan, Gerger/Bondy, and Raventos/Shin? What if???
5. Wesleyan
The Cards have come a long way in the past couple years. They are currently ranked #8 in the country and will grab a Pool C spot (first time?) Congratulations! They have a tough matchup with Bowdoin in the quarterfinals. If they can get through that things don’t get any easier as they’ll have to play #1 seed Williams. If they do some how get through Bowdoin, I don’t think they have the depth to give Williams too much of a scare.
For singles, Eudice is in. She has lost only 2 matches this year and they have both been to Raventos! Ip took her to 3 sets but other than her and Raventos, no one else has taken a set off of her. She is currently #2 in the region with a chance to get to play for #1 if her team can come through and beat Bowdoin. Wesleyan’s #2, Yu, is probably not in (maybe an alternate). She is currently at #9 in the region. She will face Cheng from Bowdoin (won’t help her), then if the team wins, she’ll face Gancayco from Williams (won’t help her). She already has a loss to Fields and I don’t think she will have a chance to play her again. If Fields has a horrible NESCACs Yu may have a chance but especially with matches being played to decision we may not see enough complete matches.
In doubles, Eudice/Budhiraja are in. They are currently the #1 team in the region. They should stay in the top 4 no matter what happens in the NESCAC tournament this weekend.
6. MIT
MIT, my first non-NESCAC team! MIT grabbed a Pool A spot many moons ago (the NEWMAC plays their conference tourney in the fall). They had a great win against Tufts but have lost to all the NESCAC teams they have played who are ranked above them. They are currently ranked #16 nationally. Not much else to say about them other than Good luck in the NCAAs, since they are done with their regular season.
In singles, they are currently the only team in the NE with a lock (pretty much) on two singles spots. Kohrs has put together another solid year and is currently #5 in the region. Tzeng is right behind her (and actually helping her, as Kohrs cannot go below her) at #6. Tzeng came out of absolutely no where this spring to win some big time matches against NESCAC foes. She has wins over Cheng, Karamercan, Ghosh, Gancayco, and Fields.
I don’t see any doubles teams getting in for MIT. Kohrs/Das are ranked #7 in the ITA regional rankings (unranked in the NCAA rankings), but they don’t have enough to move up any more than that.
7. Tufts
And back to the NESCACs. Tufts is a young team that is on fire right now. They are ranked #17 nationally but they just ended their regular season with a 7-2 upset of Bowdoin. That win, combined with the 8-1 victory over Chicago, should earn Tufts the last Pool C spot over CMU regardless of what happens in the NESCAC championships. Tufts has a quarterfinal match against Amherst, which should be an interesting matchup, as Tufts is strong at the top, solid in the middle, and weaker at the bottom. Amherst is the exact opposite, which means that someone in the middle of the lineup can wind up being the hero.
Tufts is very much a contender for qualifying for both the NCAA singles and doubles championships. Louks is pretty much a lock, as she’s had a pretty solid year including dominating Likhanskaia from Bowdoin, going 2-0 over the year against her. I’m very impressed with Louks as she was an OK #2-#3 player last year. Something has clicked and she has transformed herself into a very good #1 player. Freshman Karamercan, who plays #2 for Tufts, has an outside shot at being the other NE #2 to qualify for the NCAAs. She has wins over Fields, Cheng, and Gancayco, and losses to Tzeng, Ip, and Yu. She is currently ranked #10 in the NE. What she needs is a rematch with Yu but I don’t think Tufts will wind up playing Wesleyan in the NESCACs. In doubles, Louks/Karamercan are currently holding down the #4 position. They have a dangerous match coming up against Ghosh/Monteagudo, and then possibly a showdown with Gerger/Bondy, who are currently #5.
8. Skidmore
Nationally Skidmore is ranked #26. They are the #3 seed in the upcoming Liberty League Tournament, and will face #37 Vassar, who is the #2 seed. Skidmore had somewhat of a surprising 4-5 loss to Vassar during the regular season. Vassar lost to SLU, which resulted in a 3 way tie for the first seed in the LL tournament. Apparently, in order to break the tie, it went to the FIFTH tiebreaker, which is: Winning percentage vs. all opponents with an end-of-season record of .500 or above. I’m just glad they didn’t have to go to the sixth tiebreaker which is Winning percentage vs. opponents with feline mascots on Thursdays.
Anyway, this is the point in the article where Pool C does not apply anymore, so from here on out, everyone is playing for Pool A only. I am not sure who will emerge victorious from the Liberty League conference championships but the Skidmore-Vassar semifinal will probably be one of the most exciting matches of the year. I think the winner of that match will more than likely win the finals over SLU to grab the Pool A spot.
Regarding the individual tournament, I don’t think Skidmore will have any qualifiers. They are not in contention in singles and their #1 doubles team is ranked #6 in the region but I think the gap between #5 and #6 is big in this case.
9. Brandeis
Brandeis had a relatively good year, and are currently ranked #28 in the country. I thought they would slip a bit more this year with the graduation of Cooke, but they did a good job of maintaining where they were with new personnel. They finished 6th in the UAA with a solid 7-2 win over a much improved NYYU team.
10. NYU
NYU is currently ranked #29 nationally, and finished 7th at the UAAs. They have definitely done some nifty recruiting and added some quality players to their roster to raise their level from last year. They split with Brandeis and had a good win over TCNJ as well as a close 4-5 loss to Skidmore.
11. TCNJ
TCNJ is currently ranked #30 in the nation and they have already clinched a Pool A berth in the fall through the NJAC, which they have dominated for quite some time now. TCNJ used to be a mainstay in the national rankings until they dropped out a few years ago, but they’ve clearly made a resurgence this year. They had a solid win over Brandeis, and then *almost* had their biggest win of the year as they lost 4-5 to Hopkins.
12. Wellesley
Wellesley stands at #31 nationally and they have actually put together a decent spring in order to surpass their NEWMAC counterpart Babo. They had a good win over CNU and beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to.
13. Vassar
In my mind Vassar (#37 nationally) has already had a successful year. At the beginning of the year I gave them no shot to win ANYTHING and they have proven me quite wrong. Not only did they beat Skidmore 5-4 in an epic regular season battle, they dominated at the Seven Sisters Tournament and emerged as Champions. They enter the Liberty League Championships this weekend as the #2 seed, and if they can win that semifinal match against Skidmore, I like them to take the Pool A spot in the finals!
14. SUNY Geneseo
It looks like SUNY Geneseo has already clinched a Pool A berth through the SUNYAC Championships in the fall, where they didn’t drop a single match during the regular and post seasons.
15. SLU
SLU has been in and out of the national rankings this year and they have really taken some positive steps these last couple of years. This year they enter the Liberty League Championships as the TOP SEED! Congratulations! While I don’t think they will be walking away with the Pool A bid, I think they will play for it in the finals, and anything can happen when it comes to the championships, so I wish the Saints the best of luck!
16. Babo
Babo had a fantastic fall season, as they took MIT to the brink in a 4-5 loss to the Engineers in the NEWMAC Conference finals back in October. They seemed to run into a wall at the Nor’Easter tournament, where they were upset by #32CNU and just could not put up any significant result. They wound up engaging in close matches with teams that I think they would have gotten relatively easy wins over in the fall. Wellesley, a team that they beat twice in the fall, passed them in the rankings, as they fell out of the Top 40. Hopefully they can regroup this fall and then find a way to carry that momentum to the spring next year!
Babo does not have anyone vying for the singles or doubles tournaments, but maybe next year Akgul (who was ranked #1 in the NE her freshman fall) can have a chance to show the player that she can be.
17. Colby
Colby’s season is done in all 3 categories but they’ve had a very good season, and have shown improvements from past seasons. One of the biggest wins of the year was a 6-3 win over Bates, which is a big step in the right direction. They also had a big 6-3 win over Trinity, which puts Colby at the top of the 2nd tier teams in the NESCAC. The previous year, Colby went winless in the NESCAC.
18. Hamilton, 19. Rochester, 20. Bates
Hamilton, Rochester, and Bates are decent teams that play in 2 of the strongest conferences in the country (NESCAC and UAA) and therefore get beat up a lot.
Well there you have it boys and girls. This article took some endurance to write but I hope you enjoyed it!