2016 Bracketology #5

First off, I’d like to thank ASouth for filling in for me in the previous edition of Bracketology. This is our 5th edition, and will be the second to last with the last version coming out next Sunday, the day prior to NCAA selection. Between now and then, there are not that many matches that can really change the bracket dramatically. Three conference tournaments to watch over the coming week are the ODAC, Centennial and NESCAC. The ODAC will likely see VA Wesleyan take on Washington & Lee in the final and the Centennial will likely be a Hopkins-Swarthmore final.

By now, most of you have probably heard that Tufts beat Bowdoin today in what is in my opinion the biggest upset of the season. The Jumbos lost to unranked MIT just this week and they have now knocked off the #4 team in the country. The bloggers discussed the implications of this match on Pool C and we have determined that it actually weakens Williams’ resume (this will be covered in a separate article). In the bracket below, I have Case and Chicago filling the final two Pool C spots. We believe this will be the case unless Williams makes a run to the NESCAC final next weekend. If they lose in the semifinals, they will not make the tournament. If they make the final, they will knock out Case or Chicago, TBD which one. Despite the loss today, we don’t have Bowdoin falling much due to their wins against CMS, Williams, Wesleyan and Amherst. This was simply a brief lack of focus and I believe the Polar Bears are still a strong Final Four contender. With that out of the way, let’s move on to the bracket. I’ve provided explanations below each region. This is my best guess at how the tournament would look if it started tomorrow. I think there are potential improvements that could be made, but again this is what I think will happen, not what I think should happen (although there’s not a big difference between the two).

Region 1: Emory, Swarthmore, NC Wesleyan*, VA Wesleyan, Goucher, Messiah

This is a little tricky given that W&L is currently not in the bracket. The Generals have played host to Emory multiple times in the past. I believe W&L will end up winning the ODAC and the host site of this region will most likely move to Lexington, VA. However, for now, I have NC Wesleyan hosting. There are two likely #2 seeds who will come here, either Mary Washington or the Centennial Conference champion (Swat/Hop). The team who does not receive a #2 seed here will likely get pushed down to be a #3. So the conundrum if you’re Mary Wash is would you rather be the #2 seed in the Emory region or the #3 in a Case or CMU region? I have Swarthmore as the #2 here given their higher ITA ranking. There is an outside chance that Emory hosts this region. If they do, they will either get a very easy #2 seed such as Sewanee or NC Wesleyan OR Trinity TX could fly here, although that would be a terrible decision by the committee. Their location in Atlanta and the fact that Whitman and Tyler are going to California restricts the number of teams that could go to an Emory host site.

Region 2: CMS*, Whitman, Tyler, Cruz

This is definitely the simplest region to put together and I don’t see many scenarios where this doesn’t happen. Cruz will drive to CMS and Tyler/Whitman will be flown there. It is possible that Trinity TX gets sent here, but I think that’s highly unlikely.

Region 3: Middlebury*, Stevens, TCNJ, Hunter, Yeshiva, Ramapo

Midd will almost definitely host a region. The NESCAC winner looks like they will get the #3 overall seed. There are three potential #2 seeds for this region including Stevens, Skidmore and Swarthmore/Hopkins. I have Stevens here as the most likely #2 seed judging by the ITA rankings.

Region 4: Carnegie Mellon*, Kenyon, Kalamazoo, Wilkes, Gwynedd Mercy

This is where things start to get a little complicated and there can be significant shuffling of teams. In the past, when Carnegie Mellon has been in the top 8, they have hosted a regional, so I think this is extremely likely. There are numerous potential #2 seeds that can travel to Pittsburgh, but I see Kenyon as the most likely suspect. It is possible that Swat/Hopkins, Stevens or Mary Washington could serve as the #2 seed here, but I believe Kenyon will get sent to CMU. It is not impossible for Swat/Hopkins or Mary Washington to serve as a potential #3 seed in this region, which could mean a very interesting Round of 32 match.

Region 5: Bowdoin*, Skidmore, MIT, Nichols, Colby-Sawyer, Southern Maine

As you can see, after their loss today we believe Bowdoin will fall a whopping one spot. Their resume is still excellent and probably better than Wash U. This is very similar to what you just read in #3. The Polar Bears will host. If Hopkins wins the Centennial, they are unable to travel to Bowdoin due to distance. Swarthmore could travel here as could Stevens and Skidmore. Those three teams are your potential #2 seeds. I have Skidmore here as the most likely #2 seed judging by the ITA rankings. MIT is also here as a sneaky good #3 seed with upset potential.

Region 6: Wash U*, Whitewater, Sewanee, Rose-Hulman, Edgewood

Wash U will do one of two things. They will either host or travel to Whitewater. I have them hosting because their geography allows for the Iowa teams, Wisconsin teams and Sewanee to come to St. Louis, creating a very solid region. I have Whitewater as a very dangerous #2 seed here, especially given their regular season match with Wash U in which Tyler Kratky broke a 4-4 tie in a 3rd set. It is possible for Trinity TX to be flown here, but I don’t see that as likely. If somehow Chicago does not make the tournament, we could see a regional hosted by Whitewater with Wash U as the #1 seed and Gustavus as the #3.

Region 7: Case Western*, Trinity TX, Mary Washington, John Carroll, Franciscan, Grove City

I like Case’s chances to host if they make it. Trinity TX still has not been placed and I think they end up in Cleveland. The other strong possibility is that we see a region with Chicago, Trinity TX and Gustavus all together. In that bracket, Case ends up with Kenyon as their #2 most likely. CMU would then draw Stevens, Mary Wash or Swat/Hop as their #2. While I almost structured my bracket like that, I didn’t, and we have Trinity TX and Case in the potential blockbuster Sweet 16. I have Mary Wash here as the #3 seed as I think it’s more likely they end up here than being in a region with Emory since they are the strongest #3 seed.

Region 8 : Chicago*, Gustavus, Coe, Grinnell, Carthage

Chicago lucks out a bit with geography. If the Maroons make the tournament, it’s almost a foregone conclusion they will be grouped with Gustavus, I’m just not sure if GAC will be the #2 or #3 seed in the Maroons’ region. As I stated in Region #7, the other possibility is that Trinity TX is in this region which would make things quite a bit tougher for both the Gusties and Maroons. Obviously, the 7 and 8 regions will change if Williams makes the tournament, but we will analyze that next weekend if we believe it’s going to happen, which right now I do not.

There you have it. The second to last edition of Bracketology is complete and exactly a week from now, the regular season will be over. Check back all week for NESCAC tournament previews and make absolutely certain to check back next Sunday for our last edition of Bracketology.