This Week In West: The Ojai

Last Week In West

The last week in the West region was quite a bit more eventful than the week before it, as we got a Texas Triad and a good match between CMS and Redlands, but it could have been better if Emory had made the trip out to San Antonio like they were scheduled to. Between them and Case Western, I guess we’re entering an era where teams cancel matches that are inconvenient for them. The matches that were played, however, were good and deserve quick recaps:

#3 CMS def. #15 Redlands 7-2

Redlands got a glimpse of what they’ll have to do if they want to make the post-season this year. They’ll have to jump on CMS’ relatively shaky doubles (CMS has now overcome doubles deficits in consecutive ranked matches against P-P, Midd, and Redlands), get a good day out of Lipscomb, and find a way to win somewhere at the bottom of the lineup. It’s a lot to ask, and I don’t think it’s going to happen, but it’s within the realm of possibility. As Hunt works his way back into the swing of things, maybe he’ll be able to take advantage of a less-experienced player at #6. Meanwhile, CMS continues to roll along in singles play. Coach Settles has to be a little concerned about all the doubles deficits. I’m sure he feels that Yeh and Hull should be winning at #2, but they seem to have several teams capable of winning at #3, but nobody who is winning consistently at #2. If they can combine their current incendiary singles play with improved doubles come tournament time, they will be very dangerous.

#14 Trinity (TX) def. #24 UT-Tyler 5-4

The nightmare continued this weekend for UT-Tyler, as they once again took a doubles lead and won three first sets. This was a great match featuring four three-setters, and they just needed two of them to pick up a marquee win. I’ll talk more about that later, but the real story here was TU’s resiliency. They appear to be really vulnerable in doubles without Krull but they are playing tough tennis. They took 3 out of 4 three-setters, and Deuel is playing like one of the best playing in the country. I was watching the stream briefly but had to leave in the middle of his second set against Budd, but there was no doubt in my mind that he was going to break at 5-4 in the second. You see it time and time again that the better players just pick it up in crunch time. The match against Whitman was more of the same. They won both three-setters (including another big win from Deuel) and a tiebreaker second set at #2 to come back from their doubles deficit. They seem to be getting wins from everywhere, and Eliot Guin in particular has been huge coming off the bench his senior season to win a couple matches at #6 singles. They’re going to need their seniors to continue to excel, especially if they end up playing without another key cog after the events of this weekend.

#19 Whitman def. #24 UT-Tyler 5-3

This was another heartbreaking loss for the Patriots. Despite the doubles deficit, they won four first sets in singles and just needed to hang on to get the W. In their six 5-4 losses against top 20 teams this season (though this was technically a 5-3 loss, Gomez was on the verge of victory), the Pats had doubles leads against Kenyon, GAC, and Trinity and were poised for victory again in this match. In fact, Budd had two match points in the 10-pointer to essentially give Tyler the win. The Pats were also a point away from beating GAC, a game away from beating Kenyon, and a tiebreaker away from beating Trinity. All told, they’re probably like 6 total points away from being a top 15 team right now. Depending on how the rankings committee weights their 5-4 losses, they might drop out of the rankings entirely (we’ll keep them in our Power Rankings because we have at least a little common sense). This season has been every bit as unprecedented as P-P’s season last year, but I doubt it has been nearly as fun for the players. They’ll probably get one more chance at Whitman later this season in a California regional matchup (unless they drop behind Cruz in the rankings), so hopefully they’ll have another shot to salvage a decent ranking.

#14 Trinity (TX) def. #19 Whitman 6-3

Since I spent the last section talking exclusively about Tyler, this section will be about Whitman. On the original schedule, Coach Northam couldn’t have planned this weekend better. They had one match per day, and they would’ve been playing a Trinity team coming off matches against Tyler and Emory. You know what they say about the best laid plans… Emory dropped out, Trinity canceled their match against Schreiner, and rain forced this match to Saturday; suddenly, Whitman was playing a double-header against a relatively fresh Trinity team. I think they simply ran out of gas this weekend, which is difficult to blame them for. Without Friedman in singles, I didn’t think they would leave the weekend with a win, so I give them a lot of credit for fighting through some adversity. If they fight like they did this weekend and avenge their loss to LC next weekend, they’re likely to keep themselves in the top 20.

The Whits continue to mix up their doubles teams, and they found success this weekend. Hewlin keeps coming up big, and their depth saved them against Tyler. More concerning for me is the heart of Whitman’s lineup. Though Whitman is getting good production from Ho, going from #6 to #3 singles is a big leap, and it’s hard to see him having much success there. Locklear continues to have a difficult season, and he went 0-4 this weekend including two brutal singles losses. If Whitman is going to be a dangerous #2 seed, they really need Locklear and Friedman at their absolute best. They’ve got a week to figure that out because their conference tournament is next weekend.

This Week In West

The Ojai (Draws)

If D3NE feels like getting on his bracket challenge game later this week, we’ll have a lot more on the Ojai looking forward. Personally, I’ll do my best to briefly preview the tournament and then we can all enjoy some great west region tennis.

The Stakes

The stakes are unusually low this year in the Ojai. In my mind, the top 7 singles positions are pretty much set in stone in terms of NCAA qualification (Butts, Hewlin, Maassen, Deuel, Yasgoor, Lipscomb, and Hull), but the last spot is up for grabs. Fagundes is in the running, but he was placed at #2 singles this past weekend (and won), so it will be interesting to see how that affects his ranking. Dulle and maybe Mork are the two guys who could maybe win their way into NCAA’s with a good weekend, but they both have to have stellar weekends. In terms of doubles, the top 3 NCAA qualifying spots are spoken for, and there’s a huge dropoff after CMS, P-P, and Redlands’ #1 teams. Trinity, Whittier, and Whitmans #1 teams are all basically out of the running after the results from the last weekend, leaving Tyler, Chapman, and the P-P #2’s vying for the last spot. I stated in a previous comment that I think Tyler has the clubhouse lead for that last spot, but Chapman’s #1’s have been playing well and they certainly have an argument even without a good weekend. They can put the argument to rest by having a good weekend. Meanwhile, this is basically Kim/Yasgoor’s golden opportunity to play their way into the post season. I’m morally opposed to #2 doubles teams making the NCAA tournament, but I could make an exception in a year that appears to be exceptionally weak when it comes to top doubles teams in the West region.

Singles

Dark Horses – Julian Gordy (CMS), Charlie Werman (Chapman), Patrick Wildman (CMS). These are three guys I could see making the quarters on the right weekend. Gordy is the CMS freshman who pushed Hull at the Fall ITA before slipping into obscurity. He has a very favorable draw and would only have to beat Gio Valdez (CLU) and JK (P-P) to make the quarters. Werman is having another solid season for the Panthers. His path to the quarters is a little trickier with Sirovica (Cruz) in the first round, but I could see it happening. Wildman is the prototypical CMS lower-lineup player who makes a run at the Ojai, and if he can catch Lipscomb with some freshman jitters, he can beat You or Brenner in the Round of 16 to make the quarters.

My Picks – Though the rule at The Ojai is parity in the early rounds, I actually this tournament will go relatively chalk. I’ll take Hull over Maassen in the bottom semi and Butts over Yasgoor on top to set up a rematch of the ITA final, where I’ll take Butts to prevail again. Butts has won two doubles titles at this tournament, and I think he’ll pick up his first singles title this weekend. He’s steady enough to win his early matches quickly, and his fit enough to survive the barrage of matches in one weekend at the Ojai. I know it’s vanilla, but I’m picking Butts to take up the mantle vacated by Butts.

Doubles

Dark Horses – Richter/Sirovica (Cruz) and Macey/Mehall (CMS). The Ojai has a rich history of underdogs winning the doubles tournament. Looking at the records, only one #1 doubles team has won the title since 2009 (Ballou/Worley in 2013). Butts has won is each of the past couple years as a #2 team, the CMS #3’s (at the time) won back in 2012, and the Redlands #2’s won in 2011. Crazy. If you’re looking for an upset pick, look no further than Richter and Sirovica. After winning the ITA in the Fall, they haven’t been playing together much because Richter has been out of action (go figure), but they could be dangerous together. The only problem is that they have a very difficult first round match against Chadalavada and Josh Kim. Mehall and Macey are going to be another trendy pick as this Stag duo can really turn it on. It would be nice to see the Stag senior who never really worked his way into the singles lineup get a nice parting gift for himself in this tournament on the way out.

My Picks – It’s hard to go against a two-time champion in Butts and a returning championship doubles team overall, but Butts and Mork have been a little inconsistent this year. They seem to beat all the best teams, but then lay an egg here and there. To get through this draw, they’ll have to be on for every match, which is certainly something they’re capable of doing. Instead, I’m gonna go with Maassen and Simonides. They can serve their way out of trouble if they have difficulty in the early-going, and I think they’ll improve as the tournament goes on. I know what you’re thinking, “woah, bold pick there D3West, going with the #2 seed instead of the #1 seed.” I have no counterargument. I enjoy listening to The Fray at my crochet club every Saturday evening.