It has been more than a week since the last Pool C article! That’s just way too long. With such a big weekend that happened in the Central and Northeast, I think it’s important to give you guys an update considering there were a few big moves that happened. Pool C is ever changing and as we get more results we get more ammunition to keep teams in and out. I think the last Pool C article worked pretty damn well, so I’m going to keep that same format. It’s much cleaner and I’m all about cleanliness. If you would like to reference old Pool C articles for rules, assumptions, and other things, please go to the below links:
Assumptions:
- Please note I am assuming CMS wins the SCIAC, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
- Please note I am assuming that Emory wins the UAA, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
- Random conference winners (Swat, F&M, Newport) knocking out Hopkins, UMW, or whoever, are going to have ZERO effect on Pool C. None of those teams are good enough to get a bid.
- Bowdoin is the current favorite to make the tournament via Pool A in the NESCAC.
- With this weekend’s updates, I believe the UAA will now get 3 spots and the NESCAC will get 2 spots. However, there is a world where the NESCAC gets 3 spots and the UAA gets 2 spots. There ALSO is a world where the UAA gets 4 spots and the NESCAC gets 1….
Recap of This Weekend’s Matches and What They Mean
Case def. Chicago, 5-4
Wash U def. Case, 7-2
Chicago def. Wash U, 8-1
I’m going to pool these three matches together because these teams all play in the UAA and that’s basically what matters. Case defeating Chicago on Friday was a huge surprise and it looked like Case was going to put the dagger into their Pool C spot. Of course, that didn’t happen and Wash U made their comeback story happen and smacked Case the next day. Then, Chicago comes around licking their wounds and putting the beatdown on Wash U right after that. SO, what does this all mean? Well, this was a pretty good weekend for the UAA once again. Depending on how the ITA National Rankings go, Wash U could have now moved up into the top 10 by erasing their loss against Case at Indoors. They did lose to Chicago, but it’s nice because Case just beat them too. Expect Wash U to be in the top 7 or 8 now with that win. If Wash U moves up in the national rankings, there is now an argument to have all of the UAA teams in. While I don’t think that happens, there’s an argument. I believe after this weekend, all three of these teams are now in the tournament.
Middlebury def. Williams, 8-1
Williams def. Wesleyan, 5-0
I am clumping these two results together as they both involve Williams, who (spoiler alert) will be the last team into Pool C as of today. They got rocked by Middlebury which was a bit disappointing because I thought that one was going to be a match. However, they picked up a very nice victory over Wesleyan, which matters because it is a resume win. This is the win that currently gets them into Pool C because their main competitor for the spot (CMU) simply doesn’t have a strong schedule this year. So, Williams got drubbed, but did what they needed to do to make the tournament this weekend. Good on them.
Bowdoin def. Amherst, 9-0
This result needs to be all about itself. Amherst is just in a total freefall right now and losing 9-0 to your conference rival is pretty damn bad. Coach Doebler’s time at Amherst has really been lackluster so far, so hopefully they step it up or just wait until next year where they bring in a massive crop of recruits. With this loss, Amherst technically isn’t out of Pool C but they haven’t shown us anything to believe that they’ll make any moves. They have a match against Middlebury later on but who knows how that will go. They probably have a higher chance of getting upset again than they do of upsetting someone.
CMU def. Johns Hopkins 5-4
CMU def. Mary Washington 7-2
CMU did what they needed to this weekend but you will see that probably isn’t enough at this moment in time. It is unfortunate that CMU’s main rivals (Kenyon, Hopkins, and Mary Washington) all are having down years this year because it strips the Tartans of resume wins. Williams now has a Wesleyan win, which is better than all of CMU’s remaining wins. That’s why they’ll get ahead. CMU is banking on the UAA Tournament this year and it will be interesting to see who they play in the 4/5 match to start off the tournament. Lose that and you’re out.
Middlebury def. Tufts, 7-2
Wesleyan def. Tufts, 8-1
Tufts is out of the tournament after this horrible weekend. I guess beating Amherst gave them what they needed for their season because this was a lackluster effort if I must say. While the court advantages were probably a bit tough considering they traveled to Wesleyan, I’m not here to make excuses. Anyways, Tufts now has a ton of direct Pool C losses and they are fighting to get into the NESCAC tournament now. Good luck, Jumbos. Don’t get sick of that same old love.
Current Pool C Qualifiers (as interpreted by me)
Middlebury Panthers
Chicago Maroons
Case Western Spartans
Wash U Bears
Williams Ephs
Current Pool C Misses
Carnegie Mellon Tartans
Pomona Pitzer Sagehens
Wesleyan Cardinals
Amherst Jeffs
Redlands Bulldogs
Tufts Jumbos
Situations to Watch Out For/FAQ
This silly FAQ section was a big hit last time out, so I’m going to do it again. Most of the answers will actually be the same, it’s just that there are less matches to play now. So again, I am here to tell you who to root for, who to watch out for, and who to hate. I personally hate everyone.
Q: What happens now in the UAA? What should I watch out for at the tournament?
A: The UAA Tournament is extremely, extremely important. At this rate, the UAA is snagging 3 Pool C spots. What you should be watching for in the UAA first of all is SEEDING. Whoever gets the 4th seed has to grind it out against CMU (who is no joke) to even make it to the semifinals. My predictions right now are that the seeding goes like this: Emory, Chicago, Case, Wash U, CMU. What a battle at that 4/5 match. During the UAA tournament, a team to watch out for is CMU. If they can win their 5th place match, they put themselves in great position to make Pool C. Basically, the 5th place team in the UAA is in heavy danger of getting knocked out of the tournament.
Q: Okay on to the NESCAC, what happens there? What does Williams have to do to stay ahead?
A: Williams is actually teetering on the brink of making it and not making it. If they lose to a team like Tufts or Amherst (very possible), they now have a bad loss on their schedule. So, they need to avoid that loss. Other than that, just don’t mess up in the NESCAC Tournament! If they beat all the appropriate teams, they will pick up the resume wins that they need. Since the NESCAC does not play a 3rd place match, Williams can go to the NESCAC, lose to Bowdoin, and feel all chummy. Good job Ephs.
Q: So, Amherst is really out huh?
A: At this rate, no one should believe Amherst can make it.
Q: What’s a crazy scenario that happens where one conference gains a spot?
A: Let’s say that CMU beats Wash U in the 4/5 match AND Williams loses to a team like Amherst. CMU now has no bad losses and two good wins on their schedule. Meanwhile, Williams would have all the same wins and have a bad loss. That means that the UAA might get FOUR Pool C spots. What a crazy thing to think. For the NESCAC, I think their best chance is Wesleyan taking out a team like Middlebury to gain a spot. However, it just doesn’t seem likely at this point given the results. The NESCAC basically has three tiers – Bowdoin and Midd, Williams, and the rest.
Q: ASouth, can I rely on THE BLOG to keep me up to date with these updates?
A: Yes, you still can! Even though I will be at a certain area in California this weekend, my mind will be on Division III Tennis. Maybe some other things too. Anyways, the BLOG will always have the Pool C updates that no one else in the world has. Always brought to you by yours truly and always brought to you with a big smile. ASouth, OUT.
I know this sentiment is discussed a lot, but it really is ridiculous that we can discuss all this while knowing that such a hugely talented and successful crop of teams won’t have anything to do with the NCAA’s. It’s absurd that Amherst or Tufts (among other teams) for example, are in a position where they have almost no chance of making the tournament. Just unfortunate that the big dance excludes half of the best teams from the division :/
Preach. As of today’s ITA rankings, six of the country’s top 15 teams would likely miss NCAAs.