Damnnnnnnnnnn ASouth! Back at it again with another Pool C article! You had to know a pop culture reference was about to happen, considering who’s writing the article, didn’t you? If you don’t know what the reference is, start using Twitter more. Or, just get like 20 years younger. Shout-out to D3Central. Anyways, the NESCAC has basically run through their West Coast trip and we now have a bit more clarity on the Pool C picture. If you don’t know what Pool C is, just stop. And click on this link to read the first Pool C Update article. Quick summary – 5 teams make the tournament via Pool C or “At Large” bids, kind of like how Syracuse made the NCAA tournament without winning their conference. Basically, you make the tournament because you’re good and deserve it and don’t play in a cupcake conference like Gonzaga. ACC for life. Anyways, Pool C this year is all messed up because we have 5 spots for like 15 top 20 teams. Downright ridiculous. Okay, let’s get to the normal Pool C article that I do, going team-by-team and listing out each team’s chances for NCAA Tournament participation.
Assumptions:
- Please note I am assuming CMS wins the SCIAC, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
- Please note I am assuming that Emory wins the UAA, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
- Please note I am assuming that a random conference winner like Kenyon won’t throw a wrench in things and just lose in their conference tournament (even though I’m pretty sure all the losers would be out anyways if you’re not in the NESCAC or UAA)
- I am not making an assumption on who wins the NESCAC. The two favorites right now are Middlebury and Bowdoin. However, one of them will get a Pool A spot, one with a Pool C spot. Or, so it seems.
- Right now, my thoughts are that the Pool C Breakdown will be 3 NESCAC spots and 2 UAA spots. However, with the newest ITA Rankings coming out, it looks like the current breakdown will be 3 UAA teams and 2 NESCAC teams. This can change if one of the NESCAC teams takes out Bowdoin, or potentially Middlebury. It should be interesting.
Guarantees – 100% In
The only guarantee in Pool C right now is that this is going to be a total bloodbath.
Almost Guaranteed – 90% In
Please note that the below two teams will be battling it out for a Pool A spot (assumed).
Bowdoin Polar Bears, ranked #2 in the nation, #3 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – @Wesleyan, vs. Amherst, @Brandeis, @Middlebury, vs. Williams, vs. Bates, @Tufts, NESCAC Tournament (projected #2 Seed)
Notable Wins – #14 Whitman, #4 CMS
Notable Losses – None
My Thoughts – Bowdoin has put themselves in a great position by virtue of their win over CMS, as well as not losing to anyone else at this very moment. Their win over CMS is absolutely massive. Reason being is that CMS has already beaten CMU, Amherst, and Chicago. That means Bowdoin has indirect wins over two UAA teams and are ahead of Case because Chicago beat them. So basically, Bowdoin doesn’t need to feel threatened by the UAA. Instead, they need to feel threatened by the NESCAC. They have matches against Wesleyan, Amherst, Middlebury, and Williams coming up later this year. If they win two of those matches (most likely Wesleyan and Williams), they can basically consider themselves in. They have the strength of the CMS win plus a generally good team that should be a high seed in the tournament.
The Verdict – I just don’t see Bowdoin getting knocked out at this point. Year after year, we see a team get a signature West win and ride that to the Pool C motherland. This year’s team is Bowdoin with that CMS win and they will count on that to be a resume builder. I see Bowdoin taking out Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams as well as placing 1st/2nd in the NESCAC tournament to become a top 3 team in the nation and a strong #1 seed.
Middlebury Panthers, ranked #3 in the nation, #2 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – @CMS, @Williams, @Tufts, vs. Bowdoin, vs. Amherst, vs. Skidmore, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #10 Pomona Pitzer, #11 Wesleyan
Notable Losses – none
My Thoughts – Middlebury is a key cog in this Pool C article simply because they haven’t played a ton of matches. They have the ability to bring the NESCAC above the UAA in terms of overall resume’. Note that this is very important because the two power conferences are battling for the right to send three teams to the tournament. Here’s the reasoning – Middlebury still has one out of region match that really matters to them. That’s this weekend against CMS. If they win this, they become the second NESCAC team to beat CMS, while the UAA has only Emory that beat CMS. Emory is looking like they are a class above everyone in the UAA (and the nation) right now, but Bowdoin and Middlebury represent winnable matches for the rest of the NESCAC. So what I’m saying is this. Middlebury beats CMS, they open up an opportunity for Amherst/Williams/Wesleyan to beat them and get some HUGE indirects over Chicago, Case, and CMU. That’s big. Middlebury is a strong bet to make the tournament because they were a national favorite in the beginning of the year and are probably rounding into shape to make a good late season run. Middlebury needs to avoid losing twice to teams ranked lower than them in the NESCAC. That means Williams, Amherst, and Wesleyan. Tufts isn’t touching them.
The Verdict – Middlebury is going to make the tournament in my eyes. They aren’t going to lose the necessary matches to get knocked out and will get a signature win, whether it be against CMS this weekend or Bowdoin at home later on this season. Expect Midd to get in with a high #1 seed.
Strong Argument – 80% In
Chicago Maroons, ranked #5 in the Nation, #5 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – vs. Case Western, vs. Wash U, vs Gustavus, UAA Tournament
Notable Wins – #17 Kenyon, #16 UW-Whitewater, #10 Trinity TX, #5 Case Western, #22 Tufts
Notable Losses – #1 Emory, #2 CMS
My Thoughts – At first glance, it seems as if Chicago has a really good shot at making the tournament. You’re right, they do! But, all is not totally mushy in Chicago, because there are a lot of big matches to play. The matches next weekend against Case Western and Wash U are incredibly huge. They will determine seeding in the UAA Tournament and also just determine whether or not Chicago’s wins at Indoors are the real deal. A loss to Case Western/Wash U would negate those Pool C wins that are sitting on Chicago’s schedule right now and send them into a dogfight in the UAA Tournament. Plus, they wouldn’t get the coveted #2 seed in the tournament and would potentially have to battle it out for Pool C standing. We’re at a place in Pool C where everything becomes a must win. However, if Chicago loses to Case and beats Wash U, they technically would still get the 2/3 seed in the UAA. If they get 3rd or better in the UAA tournament (which would mean beating CMU/Wash U in the 3rd place match), then they will get in. It seems as if the top 3 finishers in the UAA tournament are going to make it. Unless something crazy happens.
The Verdict – It would be an absolute disappointment if Chicago were to miss the tournament and I doubt that they do. D3Central and D3Greek keep reminding me that Chicago turned it on at the end of the year last year, but I think that’s an excuse. They’ve got a lot of talent but they have no excuse to not make the tournament this year. I think they take care of business against Case and Wash U at home coming up, giving them the #2 seed in UAAs. They then take care of the #3 seed (whoever it is, probably Case) and move to the finals of the UAA to get smoked by Emory again. They go into the tournament with a mid #1 seed and they draw UWW and Gustavus in their section again, while hosting.
Control Their Destiny – 65% In
Case Western Spartans, ranked #6 in the country, #9 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – @Chicago, vs. Coe, vs. Wash U, UAA Tournament, @Johns Hopkins, vs. Kenyon?
Notable Wins – #12 Wash U, #6 CMU, #19 Gustavus
Notable Losses – #1 Emory, #4 Chicago
My Thoughts – It’s amazing how far Case’s Indoors victories can go if they can hold out the rest of the year. Two wins against main UAA rivals basically give them the inside track to the last UAA spot for Pool C. Now, that doesn’t mean the UAA can’t get another team in, but it’s not very likely with the strength of the NESCAC right now. That means those wins for Case are going a long way… until the UAA Tournament. Case’s next two matches against Chicago/Wash U are huge for the same reason that Chicago’s matches are huge. They will determine seeding in the UAA Tournament. No one wants the 4/5 seed because that means an extra match against a top 10 team in CMU, most likely. Instead, everyone wants to play Brandeis in the first round, because three straight matches against the top 10 in Florida in May is the last thing I would want to do. Not to mention, the 3rd place match will most likely determine the last Pool C entry, which means the last match of UAAs will be the decider. Would you rather play Brandeis -> Chicago –> 3rd, or CMU -> Emory -> 3rd? Yea, that’s what I thought. Another thing to watch is that Case has a random match against Johns Hopkins at the end of the year, on the road. That’s looking like a useless match at this point considering JHU just lost to Newport, but sometimes the Bluejays turn it on at the end of the year. Dangerous match for the Spartans there, it might even knock them out in a crazy scenario.
The Verdict – This one is so, so tough. Case is a team I literally never want to bet against, but I do think they have had some good fortune so far this year. The tight match against CMU is a massive match that will get them at least 4th in the UAA Tournament. Thing is, 4th doesn’t really matter. Their match against Wash U later on this year is huge only for seeding purposes, the outcome of the match will most likely not affect whether or not Case makes it, because they probably still will have to win in the UAA Tournament to make it. At this point in time, I believe Case loses to Wash U in the regular season, but then comes back to beat CMU in the first round of UAAs after getting the #4 seed. Case has done this time and time again. They will then take on Emory in the UAA semifinal, lose that, and eventually have a bloodbath match with Wash U in the 3rd place match to potentially determine if they make the tournament. I say the winner of that match makes it in, and I think it’s going to be Case.
Amherst Jeffs, ranked #8 in the country, #6 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – vs. Tufts, @Bates, @Bowdoin, vs. Wesleyan, @Middlebury, @Williams, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #10 Pomona, #15 Redlands
Notable Losses – #4 CMS
My Thoughts – The bloggers agree. Amherst is a sleeping giant right now and they are currently ranked behind CMU in the ITA Rankings. That is a big observation because if they go by ITA Rankings, CMU is ahead of them in Pool C. Amherst needs a special win on the year. They luckily have two potential big ones on the schedule, along with the NESCAC tournament. Basically, Amherst needs Middlebury to beat CMS – that gives the NESCAC a win over a top tier team. Then, Amherst needs to hold off those below them (Williams, Wesleyan) while also proving the NESCAC’s worth by taking out Bowdoin or Middlebury in one of these matches. They probably have three shots at this – on the road against both Bowdoin and Middlebury and then the NESCAC tournament. Again, this is assuming that Middlebury beats CMS, which is far from a great assumption. If Middlebury does not beat CMS, it becomes a huge resume battle and it would depend on what happened. This is a serious shit show.
The Verdict – Is Amherst too good to not make the tournament? I think so. Which is why I believe that the Jeffs will make the tournament with a signature win, either over Bowdoin or Middlebury. They will do this in the NESCAC tournament, making the drama really high in the last week of the season. What a great way to end it! I am also assuming that Middlebury beats CMS, because Amherst needs all the chances they can get. Their schedule is set up that they have to play all their big matches on the road, which is really freaking scary. But, Amherst is a team that I believe is too good to keep out and they will relish the fact that CMU falters in the UAA Tournament to make it in.
It’s Getting Sticky – 50% Chance In
Carnegie Mellon Tartans, ranked #7 in the country, #7 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – vs. W&L, vs, Kenyon, @Mary Washington, vs. Hopkins (@UMW), UAA Tournament
Notable Wins – #10 Pomona
Notable Losses – #6 Case Western, #1 Emory, #4 CMS
My Thoughts – Oh, CMU. CMU thought they had put themselves in an awesome place after their win against Pomona, but Pomona’s weak performance now has this team sitting in the second to last spot of the Pool C race. With only one win on their resume, the NESCAC is gunning for their spot in any way possible with a ton of remaining matches. If I’ve learned anything from March Madness, crazy stuff happens when college players of around the same level play in pressure packed matches. And that means that someone in the NESCAC is going to beat Bowdoin/Middlebury (just like last year), potentially knocking CMU out of the spot. That means the NESCAC would get 3 spots, meaning the UAA will only get 2 spots. That means CMU has to run the table against their out of conference weak opponents in Kenyon and Hopkins and then get 3rd in the UAA Tournament. That means beating Case/WashU in the 4/5 match, then beating one of them in the 3rd place match assuming they don’t beat Emory. That’s a trek that CMU simply doesn’t have the history to make me confident. They get a 50% chance right now because no one is really convinced about Wash U and they have just as much a chance at 3rd as Case, but I really wouldn’t want to be them. It’s rough out there.
The Verdict – I spoiled this one a bit with the Case section, but I think CMU can absolutely run the table in their remaining matches outside the UAA. However when it gets to tournament time, CMU has been so-so in pressure situations, while Case and Wash U have pedigrees of making their mark. I actually think that CMU is going to win the 4/5 match at UAA, but then lose in the third place match due to fatigue after giving their all against Emory in the second round. That is going to be a brutal weekend. The Tartans better get ready for it. If they win the 3rd place match, they deservedly get in and get a really strong #1 seed with the potential of Chris Newport or Kenyon as their #2 seed. The UAA is everything. Better gear up, Tartans.
Williams Ephs, ranked #9 in the country, #9 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – vs. Middlebury, vs Wesleyan, vs. Tufts, @Bowdoin, @Bates, @Amherst, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #10 Pomona
Notable Losses – #4 CMS
My Thoughts – Williams has basically the same argument as Amherst, except that the bloggers are in agreement that they are a less talented and generally worse team than the Jeffs. They basically need to get that one signature win, which means Bowdoin or Middlebury assuming they beat CMS. They also need to hold off the other NESCAC competitors and that means beating Wesleyan and most importantly, Amherst. This is a really self-explanatory section, barring anything crazy happening with the teams below them.
The Verdict – Something about Williams this year just doesn’t strike me as that clutch team that’s going to make the tournament. They have a lot of matches on the schedule that are must-wins, and with the way things are going, a lot of teams are going to play roulette in these matches. Williams might get that big win over Bowdoin and Middlebury, but they also might lose to someone behind them such as Wesleyan or (gulp) Tufts. That would be a dagger that I am not sure their resume could survive, because losing to either of those teams basically gives you an indirect loss to Pomona or Redlands and a direct loss to whatever team you lose to. I don’t have as much faith in Williams as D3NE, that’s for sure. I think they’ll be the second team out.
Needs Help – 30% Chance In
Wash U Bears, ranked #13 in the country, #13 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – @Trinity TX, vs. Gustavus (@TTX), @UT-Tyler, vs. Case (@Chicago), @Chicago, UAA Championship
Notable Wins – #18 Kenyon
Notable Losses – #6 Case Western, #12 Trinity TX
My Thoughts – Everyone thinks the Bears are dead because of their awful performance at Indoors, but the fact of the matter is they are very much in this thing. With Wash U’s pedigree, they have the ability to convince the NCAA to put them in the tournament and erase their earlier losses. They need to erase their losses and they have the chance to do so by playing both Trinity TX and Case. The more I think about the Bears, the less confident I get in them, to be honest. I think they actually have to run the table against Trinity TX and Case AND get 3rd place in the UAA to make it. They might be the most well-known potential spoiler in the tournament. Wash U has literally 0 wins. That hurts.
The Verdict – I started out thinking Wash U had a way better shot at the last Pool C slot than it seems. If they lose to Trinity TX again, they basically notch two indirect losses to Wesleyan (since they beat them) and can’t really argue that 3rd place is going to do anything, because Case and CMU haven’t beaten anyone else but UAA teams!! I just don’t think Wash U has the guts to make it. They have questions all around the lineup, with Bush potentially injured, Carswell back at #1, and doubles issues that might not be solved. I think this might be the first year in a long time we don’t get any Bear action in the NCAA Tournament.
Hanging by a Thread – 20% Chance In
Wesleyan Cardinals, ranked #11 in the country, #11 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – vs. Bowdoin, vs. Tufts, @Williams, @Amherst, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #14 Redlands
Notable Losses –#3 Middlebury, #10 Pomona
My Thoughts – Wesleyan basically lost their most important match of the year when they traveled to Pomona and lost 6-3. Blame it on outdoor tennis, inexperience, or whatever you want to, but it was a crippling blow to the Wesleyan hopes of making the tournament this year. Wesleyan is a team with a lot of talent as seen by the 5-4 loss to Middlebury. That makes them dangerous to knock out a team that has a marquee win. You’ll notice that Wesleyan basically has to do the same things that Williams does, expect Wesleyan has to probably notch a win against Bowdoin/Middlebury (assuming Midd beats CMS) as well as hold off Amherst and Williams for a final spot. That means 3 out of 4 wins against the big 4 and then a strong showing in the NESCAC tournament (at least a first round win). There’s a lot that the Cardinals have to do and that’s why they are slotted below Williams on the percentages.
The Verdict – Wesleyan is a strong and talented team, but they simply haven’t been there. And that is what holds me back from picking them to beat 3 of the big 4 in the NESCAC to make the tournament. They might be able to pull a win against Amherst or Williams, but all they would really be doing is playing spoiler to those teams. That loss to Pomona gives them a massive amount of indirects. Everyone in the NESCAC is actually rooting against Wesleyan, because it weakens the NESCAC argument. The UAA roots for them. Anyways, Wesleyan notches a big spoiler win against Williams, but ends up not making the tournament. What a world we live in.
Needs a Miracle – 10% Chance In
Pomona Pitzer, ranked #10 in the country, #10 in Power Rankings
Remaining Schedule – @Redlands, SCIAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #11 Wesleyan, #18 Kenyon, #12 Trinity TX
Notable Losses – #4 CMS, #7 CMU, #8 Amherst, #1 Emory, #3 Middlebury, #12 Trinity TX
My Thoughts – I was able to see the result of today’s Pomona/CMS match before I wrote this piece, so that has really helped me determine whether or not Pomona is going to make it this year. Pomona basically has one path to making the tournament at this point and that is to win the SCIAC over CMS. Normally, this is not a task that can easily be done, but CMS has shown they are somewhat vulnerable this year with losses to a few teams and a few close matches to teams similar to Pomona’s level. Pomona took the doubles lead today, but ended up losing a ton of singles matches to go down 6-3. The only way Pomona plays CMS is if they make the finals of the SCIAC, which means PP has to take out Redlands twice. That is what is bringing down PP’s chances of making it all the way down to 10%. I think they can beat CMS maybe 2 out of 10 times, but they also have to beat Redlands and then beat them again in the SCIAC.
The Verdict – Pomona simply doesn’t have the magic they had last year and that sucks, because if they had that magic this year, they might challenge CMS to make the Elite 8. I have seen Pomona a ton and they are losing a ton of matches and basically have no chances of making the Pool C format. That is throwing off my percentages a lot but PP needs to be mentioned here in this article. It’s been a tough run for some of their seniors and you gotta feel for some of the Sagehens. God bless em.
Next Year, Folks – 5% In
Redlands, ranked #14 in the nation
Tufts, ranked #17 in the nation
Both of these teams have way too many losses to teams to actually make the tournament. The only way they get in is if they run the table the rest of the year and make Pool A by winning the SCIAC and NESCAC, respectively. That simply isn’t going to happen and it looks like a lot of these guys are going to be playing for pride or spoilers at the end of the year.
FINAL THOUGHTS
WE FINALLY MADE IT!!!!!! Pool C is an absolute mess this year and there really are arguments for a lot of different scenarios. Here is where I ask for a lot of comments, questions, and concerns from the readers because there are always things that fall through the cracks. Here’s where we stand now:
- The UAA owns 3 spots right now and is awaiting Middlebury/CMS tomorrow.
- The NESCAC owns 2 spots right now and is also awaiting that match.
- If Middlebury beats CMS, that gives everyone in the NESCAC another chance for a marquee win.
- If they do not, then the NESCAC has to beat Bowdoin to pass the UAA, simply because Middlebury has no big wins this year.
A lot can happen between now and… tomorrow. Middlebury/CMS is huge, but Trinity TX/Wash U is also really big. If Wash U loses that, I believe they begin to play “spoiler” for the UAA the rest of the way. What a way to get back at rivals. Wesleyan is also another big spoiler team for the NESCAC. No matter what, something is going to happen from now until the end of the year. Trust me, it happens every year. I would be shocked if the five teams currently in (Middlebury, Chicago, Case, CMU, Amherst) were the same 5 teams standing at the end of the year. Anyways, please hop in the comments. I really appreciate it. Thanks for bearing with me. ASouth, OUT.
The jumbos just turned the table around..
Not really honestly. Amherst drops now, Williams moves up to take their place. If you switched Amherst/Williams in the above tables you’d get a breakout that probably quantifies the most accurate scenario at this point in time.
I’ll jump in here and say that I think this article misrepresents what’s happening right now.
1st – Wash U has much better than a 35% chance of making the tournament. All they have to do is beat either Chicago or Case at home to get the #3 seed at the NESCAC. Then they just need to finish 3rd or better in that tournament to make Pool C.
2nd – You don’t flat out say it, but you make the assumption that if everything plays out according to a team’s current ranking, CMU and Case would make the tournament over Amherst, which I think is false. CMU and Amherst have basically the same wins on their resume at the moment. Let’s say Amherst goes on to beat Williams, Wesleyan, Tufts, Bates, etc. before losing to Bowdoin/Midd in the semis of the NESCAC (no 3rd place match). That Amherst resume is going to be a lot more impressive in terms of ranked wins than whoever finishes 4th in the UAA whether it’s Case/CMU/Chicago/Wash U.
3rd – If it’s me, I put every team on this list except Midd and Bowdoin at about a 50% chance of getting in. Wash U/CMU/Case/Chicago all control their own destiny, and it’s just a matter of who performs at UAA’s. Williams and Wesleyan also control their own destinies. Williams’ resume is exactly as impressive as either Case or CMU, and they will leapfrog both teams with a win over Amherst/Bowdoin/Midd. Given what we’ve seen over the past several years, I don’t know why you don’t think that is a very distinct possibility. I also think you’re really underestimating the Cardinals. They went 5-4 against Midd on the road, and that loss to P-P won’t matter a whole lot if they pick up a win over Bowdoin or Amherst. Indirect wins will cancel out and overall resume and late season strength of victory will take over.
4th – you’re absolutely right that it’s a shit show and a travesty. I don’t know of any other sport except DIII golf where two top 10 teams won’t even get a chance to play for a national title, and I’ve spent some time around college sports. Responding to the comment above, there’s really no way to change the system. The NCAA uses the same system for nationals qualification across all sports, and it’s all based on percentages. If I remember the messages from some of the selection committee folks, I think the only solution would be to have sponsored Pool C positions or something like that. Perhaps Coach Belletto or Coach Bizot would care to comment?
We already discussed this but I want to put this on the blog so people understand what’s going on.
1. Wash U is at a 35% chance because they would have to beat Case not once but twice, while Case just has to beat them once to have the upper hand. Also, if they beat Case they don’t necessarily get the #3 seed, I don’t know why that is the assumption. That is totally up in the air.
2. Amherst was the last team in. I don’t know why you were comparing resume’s between Amherst and Case/CMU. Anyways, today’s match made that moot.
3. You can’t put every team as 50% because that wouldn’t make any mathematical sense. Fact of the matter is, teams that are currently ahead have the upper hand. They have to do less with their remaining matches. You act like “controlling your own destiny” is something that gives a team the upperhand. It isn’t, if you aren’t that great. Wesleyan lost to Pomona. They’re already in a hole. To say that they have a 50/50 chance of overtaking Williams, Case, CMU, who have 0 bad losses makes no sense.
4. Agree.
It is a travesty that so many strong teams won’t make the tournament and so many weak ones will.
It would be great if the blog and its readers could somehow wage a campaign to lobby for a change to the rules for future tournaments. I don’t know what would be required or how you’d go about doing it, but I encourage you to do so.
It seems like one way would be to expand the size of the field, adding more pool C slots. There are probably others too.
Maybe a future article focusing on enabling this change?