STAG HEN: X-Factors
Happy Friday, boys and girls. The Stag Hen is the 2nd big tournament of the year without any NE teams, but I wasn’t going to let the other writers have all the fun. They think they’re so cool with their fancy tournaments and their match-by-match previews. Who needs them? I decided that I would steal some of the Headmaster’s thunder this time around, and hop in on his patented X-Factors article. Both the D3AS and myself will go team by team and give either a person or thing that will be absolutely crucial to that team’s success (or disappointment) this weekend. It should be a great weekend of tennis, and I’m excited to see and discuss all the Pool-C implications that will come out of this weekend.
#1 CMS Stags (Blog Power Ranking: 3)
D3NE: The Depth. The Stags gritted out a good win over CMU on Wednesday night, but it was the dominant regular season victory to which we have grown accustomed. The Stags depth notched three singles wins vs. CMU, but they will need to be relied on more at the Stag Hen. Emory and Trinity Tx (the other favorites to win the Stag Hen) both have very strong tops, but beatable depth. Without the sure things of Wood, Marino, and Dorn, the Stags must now rely on their depth if they are to hold seed, win this tournament, and eventually defend their NCAA crown.
D3AS: Experience – One knock I think we will have on CMS all year is their lack of big-match experience up and down the lineup. We saw that CMS had some struggles with CMU (to be fair, so did Emory at Indoors), and it’s calling into question whether CMS can be dominant all year. I think they have fallen back to Earth simply because they have guys who played #5 or #6 or lower playing at the #2, #4-6 positions. It takes time to build a championship team. We’ve seen that from many different teams in the past.
#2 PP Sagehens (Blog Power Ranking: 10)
D3NE: Jake Yasgoor. Now back in the doubles lineup, Jake will play a bigger role at the Stag Hen than he did at Indoors. He will have tough matchups all the way through, matching up with Al-Houni, Mosetick or Krimbill, and likely Deuel or Butts. PP always relies on its depth (#RevolvingDoorOfDoom), but they will have a much easier time this weekend if Yaz takes care of business.
D3AS: Doubles – The only way that Pomona beats Emory is by taking two doubles points. It’s going to be really tough for them to win 4 out of 6 singles matches as we’ve seen Emory’s singles lineup be pretty rock solid top to bottom. Pomona needs to come out with energy and use the home court to surprise Emory with a quick knockout punch in doubles. They’ve struggled all year here and this could be the biggest chance for an upset all tournament.
#3 Emory Eagles (Blog Power Ranking: 1)
D3NE: FIGHT. The Eagles showed at Indoors that they are a very talented team, who thrives in a competitive atmosphere. I’m not trying to say that the Stag Hen will be relaxed, but it will certainly have a different feel than Indoors. There is not a true weakness in Emory’s lineup, which makes it tough to pick just one person as the X-Factor, so I’m taking the team’s fight. We know they can bring it when the energy is high, but what about in the heat against other battle-tested outdoor teams like CMS and TU? If Rafe has anything to say about it, the fight will be brought.
D3AS: Managing Expectations – Emory needs to come into this tournament as a #3 seed with something to prove. They’ve made sure that they won Indoors which was awesome, but I hope it doesn’t get to their heads. Outdoor tennis is different, CMS is different, and playing on the road is different. They will be challenged here from a fitness perspective and a competitive perspective. They have a tough road with Case, Pomona, and potentially CMS/Trinity, which is much harder than their Indoors run. Let’s see what they do.
#4 Trinity Tx Tigers (Blog Power Ranking: 6)
D3NE: Newcomers. While Lambeth had a solid Indoors, Tyer was a disappointment. D3West believes that TU will have moved Tyer down to #5 for this weekend, but wherever he plays, both he and Lambeth will need to bring home a couple of wins. Both young guns play singles and doubles, so bringing in at least one point per match will be critical. They shouldn’t sleep on their first round with Kenyon, because the Lords should come out angry; however, the freshmen will be needed more than ever in a potential 2nd round matchup with CMS and a final-day matchup with either Emory or PP.
D3AS: Matt Tyer (Round 2) – I named Tyer an X Factor at Indoors and that is going to happen again. Tyer got blasted at Indoors and D3West told me that he simply doesn’t excel there. I believe him, but it’s time to show up. Tyer will be playing #5 singles now and that should make things easier for him, but they are giving up a strong spot in Mayer as he’ll move up to #4. This lineup change could haunt the Tigers against CMS in the second round.
#5 Kenyon Lords (Blog Power Ranking: 20)
D3NE: Rob Turlington. D3AS pegged Turlington as one of his “BUY” candidates before Indoors, but Turlington was held without a singles win. Now it’s my turn to talk about the Kenyon senior. It wasn’t like he didn’t play good tennis in Cleveland, he just ran into a handful of good opponents in Manji (Emory), Kim (PP) and Kratky (Wash U) who got the better of him. Assuming Kenyon loses to TU, the Lords are going to have to rely on Turlington to help them get past the Pats in the 2nd round, and whoever they play in either the 5th or 7th place match. If Turlington can’t manage at least a couple of points this weekend, the Lords might well find themselves in the cellar of their 2nd consecutive tournament.
D3AS: Late Round Energy – The Lords are going to be in the back draw, that’s just a fact. But, they will play potentially their most important match as their second match on Friday against UT-Tyler. Lose there, and you’ve got two losses to teams outside the top 20 (UWW being the other one). They need to make sure their energy is high for that match because it will make or break them. If they beat UT-Tyler, they can lose to Case in the backdraw and continue the status quo. If not, we see Kenyon tumble a little bit farther in the rankings.
#6 Case Western Spartans (Blog Power Ranking: 8)
D3NE: 3rd doubles. Look, we all know that CJ gonna be CJ. D3West makes the Ballou-for-2 comparison often, and it’s very accurate. We know that Case relies heavily on its stud every day, and they’re lost without him. But Krimbill’s two points do not always lead to a Spartan victory. Case’s 3rd doubles team was very good at Indoors, and will need to be this weekend as well. If Case can continue to take 2-1 leads going into singles, it fires up guys like Stroup, Dong, and Dughi, none of whom play singles, and gives Case that much more of a chance to pull off another upset.
D3AS: Keeping the Case Western Attitude – Much has been made about the way the Spartans carry themselves, and I think they need to bring the attitude that defines them to their matches this weekend. Case always has the “nobody believes in us” vibe and they once again will be an underdog in the first round. They are playing the #1 team in the nation, so yea. They have just started doubles against Case and it already looks like it will be close. Case knows they work harder than almost anyone in DIII, they just need the confidence to keep them plugging away.
#7 GAC Golden Gusties (Blog Power Ranking: 19)
D3NE: Outdoors. The Gusties are more accustomed to indoor tennis than any other team playing in this tournament. The east coast has seen some nicer weather of late, but I don’t know how much (if any) outdoor court time has been seen up in St. Peter, Minnesota. Other teams like Case and Kenyon will also be dealing with similar issues, but this will be GAC’s 1st match in Cali, and possibly its 1st outdoor match of 2016. We saw what an issue the reverse caused for PP at Indoors, let’s hope GAC has some good practice time in the heat, because we know that fatigue can play a big role in this tournament, especially in the 2nd or 3rd match (which GAC will likely need to win at least one of in order to keep a top-20 ranking).
D3AS: Team Morale – The Gusties are going to take some losses in this one, and may be playing for 7th by Saturday. But, as GAC has always done at Indoors, they need to keep playing every match like it’s own match and not get discouraged. Their season hasn’t started perfectly but that doesn’t mean they should give up. A potential golden opportunity against Kenyon waits in the 7th place match, which could be huge for the Gusties season.
#8 UT-Tyler Patriots (Blog Power Ranking: 21)
D3NE: The top of the lineup. Like Trinity and Case Western, Tyler’s greatest strength is the top if its lineup. Unlike those other two teams, either Budd or Fagundes (whoever plays #1, though my guess is Budd) will be an underdog against likely all other teams. Think about that for a second. Butts, Yasgoor, Mosetick, Deuel, Geier, Krimbill, Al-Houni, and Budd/Fagundes. Amazing talent at the top of all eight teams this weekend, and if UT-Tyler is going to break seed then their #1 player is going to have to pull off a couple of upsets. Both Budd and Fagundes are very capable of doing just that, and I hope for #OldManWootton’s sake that it happens.
D3AS: The Studs – UT-Tyler is going to pull an upset over someone if Budd and Fagundes play lights out. They are a top heavy team that plays good doubles, but the bottom of the lineup is going to struggle in this tournament. I think they find some diamonds in the rough, but here is where the top 2 guys need to carry. NE mentioned it above, but the first two guys have the ability to pull upsets. UT-Tyler’s depth is suspect, but they can pull a fast one on Kenyon by taking a lead in doubles and a quick match at the top. Then, the pressure is on.