This is going to be a long post as we’re going Match by Match for the Stag-Hen, so buckle up. Play begins tomorrow at check the CMS website time. I believe it’s at 12 noon Eastern Time though. Heh. Let’s get to it.
#1 CMS vs. #8 UT-Tyler
D3West: This is obviously my match to preview since it concerns two of my regional teams. The Stag-Hen used to feature a nice little warm-up match for the Stags, but the field has gotten stronger in recent years, and the first round matches aren’t quite as easy as they used to be. Don’t get me wrong. CMS is going to win this one in a romp, but there will be some close matches along the way. With a couple of the traditional middle-of-the-pack West region teams down this year, I’ll be looking towards Tyler to pick up the slack and pick up some big wins for the region. Briefly:
#1 Dubs: Butts/Mork vs. Fagundes/F. Fischer – These Pats can play some dubs and will be competing for a nationals spot, but Butts and Mork are on fire right now. 8-5 CMS.
#2 Dubs: Yeh/Gordy vs. Budd/McIntyre – Tyler will be strong at #2 during the year, but they will also be adjusting to CMS’ courts here. CMS 8-4.
#3 Dubs: Hull/Macey vs. Elwood/Puckey – Hull and Macey will be mad coming off the loss to CMU. CMS 8-6
#1 Singles: Butts vs. Budd – Butts might be the best player in the country and will dominate this matchup of great names. Butts 6-4, 6-2
#2 Singles: Hull vs. Fagundes – Fagundes is having some growing pains in his freshman year, and Hull almost never loses. Hull 6-3, 7-5
#3 Singles: Mork vs. J. Fischer – Mork is playing some of his best tennis this year in both singles and doubles. Mork 7-5, 6-1
#4 Singles: Macey vs. Gomez – The freshman is going to get ground into dust on CMS’ home courts. Macey 6-4, 6-1.
#5 Singles: Gordy vs. McIntyre – Here I think McIntyre sneaks up on the freshman before eventually winning in a 10-pointer for Tyler’s only point. I’m guessing they’re going to get a point somewhere, and I have a history of picking against freshmen. Tyler 6-4, 1-6, 10-8
#6 Singles: Yeh vs. Puckey – Puckey has no chance against the wiley senior. Yeh 6-4, 6-4.
All in all, it’s a good short match that will benefit Tyler down the line. I’m sure the lineups will change slightly for the actual match, but structurally, I think it will go a lot like this. 8-1 CMS.
D3ASouth: I’ve been roped into this preview between two West teams simply because I have a lot of knowledge about DIII Tennis and can throw down with the sarcasm of D3West. This is a fairly easy preview because I don’t think UT-Tyler has much of a shot at winning, despite their improvement this year and the addition of #OldManWootton to their coaching staff. CMS showed me yesterday against CMU that they are vulnerable, but pretty much only within the top 8 teams. You have to be good at doubles to beat them because they have an extremely deep singles lineup that features 3 or 4 guys that could probably play #3 or #4 for most teams. I’m going to keep this short because I think this one will end up being 8-1 or 7-2. Matches to watch here are at #1 doubles and #1 and #2 singles. #1 doubles will be interesting because I think the team of Butts/Mork might be a little (dare I say it) overrated at this stage in the game. CMS has been tinkering with their doubles pretty much all year, and this team was down 6-1 to the CMU team yesterday. They turned on the talent and reeled off 7 straight games, which shows their potential, but it’s different coming in day in and day out. This should be interesting. At #1 singles, we’ll see if Butts can rebound from a surprising three-set loss to Alla on Wednesday against Daniel Budd. He should do this with ease if he is the true best player in the nation. #2 also interests me because I think Tyler has the advantage here. Everyone seems to be really high on Hull, but the fact is he played #6 last year. Now he’s playing #2. Levine of CMU made quick work of him yesterday (what a season for Levine so far) and Fagundes is a top player. Tyler is the favorite here, but Hull can silence some haters with a win.
Predictions!
D3AS: CMS 7-2
Central: CMS 8-1
D3NE: CMS 8-1
West: CMS 8-1
D3Reg: CMS 8-1
D3Greek: CMS 9-0
#2 Pomona Pitzer vs. #7 Gustavus
D3West: I’m going to let Greek do the prolonged preview since I’ve got three of these, but P-P’s doubles adjustment seemed to work wonders against Wesleyan. P-P has a penchant for making any and every match close, so I’m going to guess this happens again here with GAC coming out strong and taking a couple doubles matches before eventually falling to PP’s depth. I’ll take PP with a tight 6-3 victory with wins at #3 doubles and #2-5 singles with three-setters at 1, 2, 3, and 6 singles.
D3Greek: The Gusties had their first test of the season last week, and just as I predicted, they barely fell to UW-Whitewater 5-4. I mentioned in my match preview that Gustavus’ lack of depth could hurt their chances of pulling off the W, and that seemed to be the case as they fell at the 4-6 singles spots. This is a team that has traditionally relied on solid doubles to put them ahead. Once again, they cannot go into singles with a deficit. If they do, it’s unfortunately more than likely Pomona will pull away. When you read Central’s preview of Trinity versus Kenyon, you’ll notice that he that he is big on the transition from indoor to outdoor courts. Gustavus is a team that has typically thrived indoors. However, this will be their first match this season on the outdoor courts, and they do not have any other contests in California before the Stag-Hen. Overall, given what we’ve seen thus far from both teams, I’m going to be lame and, just like most of the other bloggers, predict a 6-3 win for Pomona. Below is my match-by-match analysis.
No. 1 Doubles: Jonathan Kim/Jake Yasgoor vs. Mohanad Alhouni/Andres Saenz – Kim and Yasgoor are a combo that had a good amount of success last year. In fact, the duo defeated Alhouni and Brad Entwistle 8-6 at No. 2 in 2015. On a typical day, Alhouni/Saenz have the best chance of getting a doubles point for Gusties. I don’t think Pomona will sweep Gustavus in doubles, so for that, I’m going with the team from Minnesota. Plus, Alhouni and Saenz had an impressive 8-4 win over Humphreys/Treis of Whitewater. Gustavus 9-7
No. 2 Doubles: Spencer Simonides/Graham Maassen vs. Zach Ekstein/Tommy Entwistle – While this match could end up closer than I expect it to, Simonides has a lot of experience and fire on his side. Maassen had been playing 1 dubs up until recently, so I’m calling a routine win for the juniors over the sophomores. Pomona 8-5
No 3 Doubles: Antony Bello/Kalyan Chadalavada vs. Mitch Elofson/David Hagberg – It’s hard to go against the Sagehens at No. 3. Bello and Chadalavada have been on fire as of late, beating Bates, Mary Washington, and Wesleyan. Meanwhile Elofson and Hagberg lost their only big match thus far in the season. Pomona 8-6
No. 1 Singles: Yasgoor vs. Alhouni – Alhouni is coming back from a tough loss to DePauw’s No. 1, but that was in a super breaker, so I won’t make much out of that. Last year, Alhouni’s transition from indoor to outdoor courts was seamless, and I think he comes back with a win. Alhouni 6-4, 5-7, 6-2
No. 2 Singles: Maassen vs. Saenz – Much like the No. 1 match, I expect this one to be a nailbiter. Maassen has had a couple three setters as of late, and Saenz proved me wrong by beating a solid Treis. I could go either way here, but because I think that Gustavus will get 3 points total, this is one of their best opportunities. Saenz 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
No. 3 Singles: Bello vs. Ekstein – It’s always tough to go against someone that is undefeated. That said, despite Ekstein’s unblemished record at No. 3, he’s going up against a solid player Bello. If Bello were to play 4, I’d be a little more confident, but I’m still giving him the win in three. Bello 6-2, 3-6, 6-1
No. 4 Singles: Jonathan Kim vs. Elofson – Elofson had a tough outing last weekend. He fell to Whitewater’s Grant Thompson in a long three-setter before running out of gas against DePauw’s No. 4, 6-1, 6-3. On the other side, Kim has been hot as of late, and I view him as one of the top players in the country at this spot. Kim 6-2, 6-3
No. 5 Singles: Sam Malech vs. Entwistle – Entwistle has held his own in his first year starting in singles for the Gusties. While he suffered a loss to Whitewater at No. 5, he was facing a very good opponent in Zane Navratil. However, Malech has basically been unstoppable and is only improving since his impressive freshman campaign. In this sophomore battle, I’m going with the Sagehen. Malech 6-3, 6-4.
No. 6 Singles: Marko Mandic vs. Gabe Steinwand – Both Pomona and Gustavus have rotated a bunch of players through the 6 spot, so the matchup might not actually include Mandic or Steinwand. Still, Steinwand has started the last couple matches, so he is most likely to be slated in at 6. Mandic has seen some time at both No. 5 and No. 6 this year and does have more experience than Steinwand. The Sagehen is the safer pick. Mandic 7-5, 7-5
Predictions!
D3AS: PP 7-2
Central: PP 6-3
D3NE: PP 6-3
West: PP 6-3
D3Reg: PP 6-3
D3Greek: PP 6-3
#3 Emory vs. #6 Case Western
D3AS: Match. Of. The. First. Round. Get ready for the fireworks here folks, because Emory vs. Case in a match between two of the UAA Top 3 is about to go down. Emory is the favorite here, but Case has never been counted out of any match. They are the ultimate “Nobody Believes in Us” team and that makes them dangerous to any big fish in the sea. This will potentially be one of the most chippy matches of the year based on the two teams playing in it and I wish it was on the live stream. Case has basically amped up it’s Spring Break schedule to include a ton of non D3 matches to prepare for this event. This is a great strategy and they will be the more prepared outdoor team coming into this. I have to question whether or not their fitness will be at tip-top shape, because playing 4 matches prior to this is a big deal. But, Coach Todd always has his reasons for things. I’ll be doing the match by match preview, so let’s get started.
#1 Doubles: Rubinstein/Spaulding (EU) vs. Krimbill/Stuerke (Case)
As we all know, CJ Krimbill is a beast in DIII. He deserves to be in the running for one of the most impactful players of all time and he is definitely my current front runner for our fake MVP award at the end of the year. If CJ loses a match, the Spartans are most likely to lose. It’s like watching a Central version of CLU from the Ballou days. Anyways, the Emory team has been a great success despite two guys that don’t play in the singles lineup, but I think star power wins here. Case, 8-5
#2 Doubles: Mosetick/Jemison (EU) vs. Daum/Benedetto (Case)
This is just a match where Emory’s star power will overtake the Spartans. Case has played with their #2 team a lot and haven’t found the right formula there yet. This is not the match where they do that. Emory, 8-2
#3 Doubles: Harrington/Omsky (EU) vs. Fojtasek/Gruber (Case)
Swing match here and I think this will determine if Case has a shot to pull the upset later on in the match. This will be the closest match of the three doubles matches and it will be interesting to see how Harrington/Omsky fare in outdoor tennis. They took a lump by losing to the Sewanee #3 team just a week ago at their home courts, which is a bit concerning. In this one, I think the experience of Fojtasek puts Case into the upset conversation. Case, 9-7
#1 Singles: Mosetick (EU) vs. Krimbill (Case)
MARQUEE MATCHUP! This is going to be a doozy between two players who play a little bit differently than each other, but are both considered dominant in their own right. It’s really hard to bet against CJ Krimbill these days, but the outdoor game seems (please note I say seems) to favor Mosetick a little bit more. Now, Krimbill’s game is downright nasty anywhere, but I think Rafe views this as an opportunity match and I don’t like picking against him. CJ can match him fire for fire and this will be a match to watch. Case, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4
#2 Singles: Jemison (EU) vs. Fojtasek (Case)
I think this match is going to be better than a lot of people think it’s going to be. Fojtasek is a big name in his own right and he has notched some great wins in his career. Jemison needs to lose at some point, although his outside game is pretty damn good. Now, I’m thinking I’ll go with the freshman until he loses, but man, this is gonna be another close one. Emory, 6-3, 7-5
#3 Singles: Manji (EU) vs. Stroup (Case)
As D3Central will mention earlier, this could be an interesting one because Stroup is a boom or bust type player. If Case is to pull an upset, this is a match they kind of have to have. Unfortunately, Manji just has been way too strong this year despite me picking against him a billion times. Not making that same mistake. Emory, 6-4, 6-3
#4 Singles: Bouchet (EU) vs. Stuerke (Case)
Stuerke has never been known for his singles prowess but actually fared surprisingly well at Indoors, which is a good sign for the Spartans. I’ve also made the mistake of picking against Bouchet all year, which has led me to some bad arguments in the comments. Again, not making that mistake. Also, shout-out to Bouchet for being a good sport about it. Emory, 6-2, 6-3
#5 Singles: Goodman (EU) vs. Dong (Case)
Goodman is simply the more talented player and can move Dong around the court enough to take him out. There might be some ups and downs considering Dong is a huge grinder, but Goodman is too talented here and will take this one. Emory, 6-4, 6-4
#6 Singles: Harrington (EU) vs. Dughi (Case)
Interesting match here and I don’t think Harrington is the lock that people think he is down bottom against Dughi. Dughi is going to be an absolute wall down here in the California sun, and if Harrington isn’t ready to play he is going to be sweltering. This could be a match that swings some momentum to the Spartans and I could theoretically see Case winning it down here. But, my Emory bias is too strong. Emory, 5-7, 6-4, 10-5 in breaker
D3Central: This is a matchup between two fiery teams that I actually think could be a bit closer than most would expect. Of course part of the reason is because of Krimbill for 2 always gives Case a chance at pulling out an upset. Doubles will be very interesting and I think it somewhat favors Case only because how the match-ups fall. Case is obviously strong at #1 and they will have the edge. Emory is strongest at #2 and that is where Case is weakest so that point should go to Emory. #3 dubs should be a great battle as both teams are very good at that position. I am going to give Case the slight edge because I think Fojtasek and Gruber are playing great and will rise to the occasion to get the win. So that means Case leads 2-1 after doubles. Krimbill will get the win at the top spot over Rafe although it could be another epic Rafe match. You have got to give Emory the edge at 2, 3, and 4 as they proved to be tough to beat at Indoors. Stroup at #3 is the wildcard for Case as he has proven to be boom or bust. I don’t think Case has the firepower at 5 and 6 in Dong or Dughi to get the win either, but I was proven wrong as they competed well against Wash U to pull that upset. Overall I think Emory will match the Case intensity and likely take down the Spartans.
Predictions!
ASouth: Emory 6-3
Central: Emory 6-3
D3NE: Emory 7-2
West: Emory 6-3
D3Reg: Emory 7-2
D3Greek: Emory 7-2
#4 Trinity TX vs. #5 Kenyon
D3West: A lot of the writers, myself included, have been writing off Kenyon based on their Indoors performance. I’m going to come on the record and say that this is a bad idea. One team always has to lose all their matches at Indoors, and it was a strong field. We can hardly blame them for that. Whitewater has come out and shown that they’re for real this year, so it’s hard to hold that loss against them. Realistically, I think they are a top 20 team this year, and I think they have the potential to upset teams in the 10-15 range if only because Geier can win them two matches single-handedly. That being said, I don’t think they’re about to win this match. Trinity is going to be just too strong in doubles and a little too deep. One thing worth noting, however, is that Geier can neutralize one of Trinity’s strength in Deuel. Trinity did well at Indoors by winning the top two singles positions, and if you take away one of the points, the matches get a lot tighter. This match is going to play out a lot like one of the old Cal Lu matches where Ballou loses and they somehow end up going 5-4 with a team like CNU or Brandeis.
#1 Doubles: Krull/Tyer vs. Geier/Kaye – Krull and Tyer get back to their Fall form on outdoor courts in a 8-5 victory.
#2 Doubles: Niess/Deuel vs. Roberts/Turlington – Deuel eventually takes over in the swing match, as Trinity takes the lead with a tiebreaker victory 9-8 (2).
#3 Doubles: Guin/Lambeth vs. Liu/Paolucci – Guin and Lambeth take their first loss of the year against a feisty Lords team coming off a nice easy win over NCW
#1 Singles: Deuel vs. Geier – These two both have three vowels in the middle of 5-letter names. That’s neither here nor there. Geier has been arguably the best player in DIII tennis this year, and I think he continues his hot streak with another impressive straight-sets win over Deuel. 7-5, 7-6.
#2 Singles: Krull vs. Liu – Krull continues his relative dominance of the #2 position with a nice victory over an up-and-coming player 6-4, 7-6.
#3 Singles: Lambeth vs. Turlington – Turlington’s recent struggles continue in a loss to the blossoming freshman from Trinity. 6-4, 6-2.
#4 Singles: Mayer vs. Paolucci – Mayer takes a lump playing a little higher in the lineup than he’s accustomed in a close 3-set loss to Paolucci. 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.
#5 Singles: Tyer vs. Roberts – Tyer continues to struggle in singles as Roberts abuses the 1-handed backhand. 7-5, 6-2.
#6 Singles: Niess vs. Kaye – In the best singles match of the day, Niess outlasts Kaye in a 10-pointer where the first two sets finish well after the Mayer/Paolucci 3-setter. 7-6, 5-7, 10-8.
D3Central: There is only one real story like that I am going to be watching in regards to this match and that is Sam Geier. It is going to be a theme for all of Stag Hen because he will take his unblemished singles record and play 3 top guys once again. I am not sure I would expect Geier to go unscathed this week because the difference between indoor tennis and outdoor is significant. To someone unfamiliar with tennis, they might not understand why that is, but it truly is a different game. Geier has shown success outdoors as well in the past as he won ITAs a few years back, but I think he will take a few matches to get acclimated to the slower conditions and the overall conditioning it takes to be successful outdoors. As for the match as a whole, I don’t think Kenyon has much of a shot. They will be underdogs at every doubles position and I am going to predict a sweep by Trinity because of it. In singles, Kenyon will squeak out at least one win either by Geier or someone in the middle of the lineup as Trinity’s depth is a bit too much. I am going to give Turlington a win over either Lambeth or Tyer and Geier losing in a close 3 sets.
Predictions!
ASouth: Trinity 8-1
Central: Trinity 8-1
D3NE: Trinity 8-1
West: Trinity 6-3
D3Reg: Trinity 7-2
D3Greek: Trinity 6-3
Okay, cool. NE and I are trying to bring you some X Factors and Things to Watch later, let’s see if I get to it. Go Eagles. ASouth, OUT.