#27 MIT @ #24 Bates Mini-Preview

Happy Saturday morning, boys and girls! It’s one of the few slow points in the spring season, but I’m still here for your entertainment. Prior to this weekend, three of the four top-30 non-NESCAC NE teams had started their DIII seasons, with Stevens, Brandeis, and Skidmore all having played at least somewhat important matches. The Ducks took down Swat and NCW, but fell to Mary Wash. The Judges beat Chapman handily, and pushed Redlands, but came up just short. Skidmore beat Vassar in a somewhat unconvincing 6-3 win, and this weekend the Thoroughbreds host NYU and Liberty League foe RPI. D3Regional has both of those matches covered in his Regional Roundup. This afternoon, we will see arguably the most mysterious NE team play its first important match of 2016. MIT is ranked #27 in our power rankings, and tomorrow they travel up to take on #24 Bates. As is well documented at this point, Bates struggled in California, blowing doubles leads against Pomona-Pitzer and Redlands. The ITA might not consider this a close match (the new rankings leave MIT out of the top-40 while keeping Bates at #22), but I think this could be closer than some people think. Bates did handle its business against a sneaky-tough Babson team today, but MIT should bring another level of talent. The Engineers have played a bunch of different lineups over their first few matches, so the predictions may be a bit of a patch-job, but it’s what people came here to read.

#24 Bates vs. #27 MIT @ 1 p.m.

Doubles: I’m going to have to lump this into one paragraph because MIT has yet to really play the same doubles teams. The only constant has been the freshman team of Ko and Barr. They are the R in a pressure filled equation that is the MIT doubles lineup (or PV=nRT for those keeping score at home). My guess is they play #2 and matchup with Ordway/Scott from Bates. This is probably MIT’s best chance to take a point in the doubles. Dubs has never been a strength of MIT’s, while Bates is proving once again to be the utter opposite. Whoever Cauneac pairs with at #1 (Wang? Lilley?) will be a talented team, but Rosen and Ellis proved a lot to me in Cali, and should be favored. Bates’s younger team of Leiner and Quijano should also be favored at #3 dubs, no matter what players comprise their opponent. If MIT is going to win this match, they will likely need two out of three doubles matches. The Engineers are capable of overcoming a 2-1 deficit, but it just makes the hypothetical comeback THAT much more difficult. Prediction: Bates leads 3-0 after doubles with two easy wins and a close win at #2 for the sweep.

#1 Singles: Ben Rosen (Bates) UTR 12.12 vs. Kevin Wang (MIT) UTR 11.33

The Bobcats switched Rosen back to #1 for their Babson match today, and he responded with a straight set win. That’s two matches at the top spot for both Rosen and Ellis, but my guess is that Rosen holds down the top spot for this match. Whether it’s Rosen or Ellis, Bates should be favored to outgrind Wang at #1. Bates, 6-4, 6-3

#2 Singles: Chris Ellis (Bates) UTR 11.75 vs. Alex Cauneac (MIT) UTR 12.18

I believe Cauneac is the best player on the MIT roster, but he’s been playing behind Wang so far. The talented freshman had a superb fall, that has extended into the spring. This match may take a while, but I like the young gun to outduel the junior. MIT, 6-2, 7-5.

#3 Singles: Fergus Scott (Bates) UTR 11.01 vs. Tyler Barr (MIT) UTR 11.85 

Scott fell in three sets today vs. Bab-O, and is the only Bobcat left without a singles win this spring. Barr should be a stronger opponent than Rosenbluth, and the Cal Lu transfers struggles might well continue. The fact that Barr’s playing above Ko means that Tyler must be playing some excellent tennis. His results so far this spring have been pretty good, and I think they continue here. MIT, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1

#4 Singles: Brent Feldman (Bates) UTR 10.56 vs. Sean Ko (MIT) UTR 11.38 

There was a lot of talk about Ko coming into the fall, and the 5-star disappointed a bit at the ITA. However, he picked up a win over D1 BU, and pushed his D1 Bryant opponent to 7-6 in the 3rd (after the match was decided). Feldman got off the schneid with a win today against Babson, but I’ll take beauty over experience here. MIT, 6-1, 7-6 (6).

#5 Singles: Pat Ordway (Bates) UTR 10.86 vs. Kenny Gea (MIT) UTR 10.05

I have been told that nobody’s game fits Bates’ indoor courts better than Mr. Ordway’s. That doesn’t really make intuitive sense to me, because the kid has a booming serve and can be erratic at times, but I’ll believe my sources. Ordway picked up his first singles win of the year today, and I think he keeps on rollin. Bates, 6-1, 6-2

#6 Singles: Josh Quijano (Bates) UTR 11.45 vs. Denis Garcia (MIT) UTR 10.47

Advantage Bobcats. MIT could throw out a couple different players here (La Soya, Bu, Lilley, etc.) but Garcia has a minor experience edge so I’ll give him the nod. I think the Bates freshman makes somewhat quick work of an erratic opponent. Bates 7-6 (3), 6-1.

TOTAL PREDICTION: If my math is any good, I have this matches coming out to a 6-3 Bates win, including a doubles sweep and a singles split. Like I said, if MIT can contend in the doubles, they certainly have the firepower to pull off the upset. I think they will find their way back into the ITA rankings, but this might be their last realistic chance to do so for at least a couple of months. MIT ends its regular season with out of conference matches vs. Brandeis and Tufts.