#IndoorsWeek First Round – Match by Match Preview

There’s been a lot of buzz about #IndoorsWeek so far, and for good reason. I’m proud to say the blog has gotten some great traffic and some compliments about the whole Draftkings idea (link here), and we are ready to face off against you know-it-alls in a friendly competition about DIII tennis.  However, we’re not here for our own benefit and we need to make sure we get some real previews out as well. The bloggers have come together for a comprehensive, all-access match by match preview for your viewing pleasure. Who do you think is going to take home the crown? Let us know in the voting on the left side of the site, or just write in the comments. You’re here for the previews, so let’s get to em.  Central, kick us off.

#1 WASH U VS. #8 CASE WESTERN Friday at 1:00 p.m

D3Central: I don’t think anyone is looking at Wash U and thinking them as the #1 seed and favorite to win the tournament. However, there is something to be said for the experience they bring and that will be key in their first match. The good news is that last year’s performance gets them the top seed where they take on the Chris Krimbill Spartans, I mean Case Western Spartans. Clearly this was meant to be funny, but it really is all about Krimbill for Case Western. Even with Wash U down in terms of talent at the top of the lineup, they still will overpower a Case team that was also hit hard by graduation or players quitting the team. I think Krimbill will be favored in both of his matches, but the Bears will be heavily favored at every other position. I am most interested in the Tyler Kratky vs. Stroup match up at #3 singles. Typically I would say Kratky is a huge favorite, but his early season loss to a unknown from Rose Hulman has me a bit concerned. As for Stroup, I am hearing that he has a ton of talent, but is mentally weak which can be expected from a freshman. The question becomes will he crack under the pressure of an intense match, or play freely as expectations are low. I would guess Kratky will show his true colors here and win comfortably along with the rest of the back end of the Bears lineup. Going through match by match seems a bit pointless as I have Krimbill winning both his matches.

D3Greek: As sports fans (and bloggers), we have a tendency of overreacting to single performances and forget to consider the bigger picture. That’s what has happened to Wash U. Yes, they were blitzed by Chicago at ITA Regionals, but that was a single tournament with no real implications. The Bears have shown, time and time again, year after year, that they come up big when it really matters, especially at Indoors. If you need a refresher on Wash U’s winning ways at Indoors, read the Guru’s post. So, I expect a good showing from the Bears throughout the weekend. The opener against Case is going to be a fun one. Although Wash U is the clear favorite, you know Case is going to be revved up with the home crowd on its side. But, the Spartans are fighting an uphill battle. Considering the losses of Vis Simhadri, Andrew Komarov, and Will Drougas, combined with everything I just said about Wash U, it’s easy to see why every blogger chose Wash U over Case. But how can the Spartans pull off the upset?. The only way I see it happening is if they sweep doubles. It’s too hard to envision Case pulling off more than two singles victories.

Looking at doubles: With CJ Krimbill and Louis Stuerke’s past success, I give them the edge at No. 1 over last year’s undefeated No. 3 tandem of Josh Cogan and Tyler Kratky. However, I can’t really see the Bears losing at No. 2, with Jeremy Bush being an All-American doubles player and Konrad Kozlowski a highly-touted recruit. There is hope at No. 3 for the Spartans, as neither James Fojtasek/Phil Gruber nor Shaun Berman/Radha Vishnubhotla have much big match experience in the past year (although Fojtasek was very strong at No. 3 as a freshman), and the crowd could help Case pull it off. What’s interesting is that the score after doubles can be anything from 2-1 Case to 3-0 Wash U. However, it’s unlikely Case will sweep.

Rather than break down every singles match, here are the ones to watch:

Krimbill versus Bush at No. 1 – We all know CJ Krimbill is one of the top singles players in the country, but how will Bush handle his new role at the top spot?

Stuerke versus John Carswell at No. 4 – Sorry Louie, the main reason I’m watching this one is to see if the drop of Carswell to No. 4 is going to pay off. Some bloggers predict Carswell will go undefeated this weekend. Should be a fun one.

Kevin Dong versus Jake Klein at No. 5 – I wasn’t expecting Jake Klein to crack the lineup, but something must be clicking for the sophomore. Dong didn’t see any court time after March of last season, so both players have something to prove.

Overall, I hope this is a really close match, but I’m going with da Bears.

PICKS!

D3AS: Wash U def. Case 7-2

D3Central: Wash U def, Case 7-2 (Krimbill)

D3NE: Wash U def. Case 7-2, with two Krimbill points

D3West: Wash U def. Case 6-3

D3Regional: Wash U def. Case 7-2

D3Greek: Wash U def. Case 6-3

#2 POMONA-PITZER VS #7 CARNEGIE MELLON Friday at 1:00 p.m.

D3AS: Sometimes, I just hate previewing Carnegie Mellon. Everyone knows they have the talent, but it is ALWAYS a struggle for them to get big wins.  I’ve said this multiple times over the years and this year will most likely be no different.  What has changed, however, is my take on CMU’s chances every match.  Normally, I’d say this match would be a winnable one for the Tartans.  This year, I say that the Tartans will most likely falter.  Why do I say this?  Because history tells us this will happen.  Last year, a team with senior leadership and probably a top 5 team in terms of talent didn’t make the NCAA tournament?  Why was this?  Because they lost to… Pomona and Bowdoin.  While CMU can beat the guys that don’t bring it every match (looking at you, Hopkins), they can never seem to beat the workmanlike teams that keep them out of Pool C.  Wow, look who they are playing! None other than the Pomona Pitzer Sagehens.  I can’t begin to tell you how important this match is for the Tartans.  And that is why I do not believe they will take this victory.

Since I know West is going to go through his match by match preview, I will merely do an outline of where CMU can win and can’t win this match. The thing to watch here is doubles.  CMU needs to take at least 1 point to take this match. That seems pretty self-explanatory, but it is especially important for the Tartans given their lineup construction. It’s just way too hard to take out five singles matches AFTER getting swept. They have two freshmen in the lineup at #2 and #4 singles. I don’t believe they’ll win both those matches against any of the teams here. That puts way too much pressure on the rest of the lineup, plus Alla hasn’t been playing great in his most recent matches.  Watch the doubles sweep in this one.

On a brighter note, CMU wins this match by being the more comfortable team indoors and on the east coast. They win it with their depth in singles (Kirkov and Wadwani at #5 and #6) as well as their senior team of Alla/Kumar coming up big at #3 doubles. Preparation is going to be huge in this match.  CMU cannot come out flat in doubles, otherwise they will fall down a slippery slope.  Momentum and energy rule on the doubles court and CMU needs as much of it as they can get.  They have a couple bigtime advantages in singles and they simple need to get there. If they can shift the pressure to the Sagehens on an indoor court, they could eek this one out.  No matter what, this one will be 5-4.  I hope it comes down to one of the lower courts, because that’s CMUs bread and butter. Unfortunately, I think they come out the loser in this one even with a doubles win – losses at #1 and #2 doubles and #2, #3, and #4 singles.

D3West: Since P-P is my team, I’ll talk about them. They are definitely one of the more interesting teams in the country right now in that they’re coming off an absolutely epic season and they’re due for a total personality change. True, they didn’t lose many players to graduation, but any time you lose a #1 singles/doubles guy like Chuddy, the team is gonna change. Working for them, they have a very experienced lineup, with upperclassmen in the top 4 spots and another one on the doubles court. Working against them is the fact that they have to travel East and play an Indoor tennis match for the first time since the last time they were at Indoors (2012, I think). I’m sure all of these guys have played indoor tennis before, but it makes a difference when a bunch of outdoor tennis players have to play on indoor surfaces. I’m less worried about that than I am about the travel. Pomona-Pitzer rarely leaves Claremont, let alone the Pacific Time Zone, and it’s been shown that it’s much more difficult to travel East, against the sun, and perform than it is to travel west. (This makes intuitive sense, but it’s also been proven. I’m not citing my sources). To top things all off, they have a bum draw, as I’m sure they would prefer to play either Kenyon or Case, but they got stuck with CMU as the #2 seed. They potentially need a doubles sweep to win this match, but they might get it. Either way, I don’t see them winning more than three singles matches.

#1 Dubs: Kim/Maassen vs. Arora/Levine – This CMU team is completely unproven, so I’m gonna say the Hens are favored at this spot. I think my boy Kim comes through with a 9-7 win.

#2 Dubs: Mandic/Simonides vs. Chen/Zheng – Much has been made of CMU’s weak doubles, but I don’t think this applies to the #2 doubles team here. To top it all off, Mandic hasn’t really played doubles in a situation like this before. I’m leaning towards CMU 8-5.

#3 Dubs: Yasgoor/Bello vs. Alla/Kumar – On the surface, this is a stack by both teams, but if you look a little deeper at past results, you’ll see that this is definitely a stack by both teams. It should be a great match, and I have to like the bigger serving team on the indoor courts. P-P 8-6.

#1 Singles: Yasgoor vs. Alla – This is a really tough one to judge. Alla is definitely stronger outside, and I think Yaz’ game translates well to indoor tennis, but Alla just has more experience and better results throughout his career. Should be a fun match to watch. I’m going to go with Yaz in three sets.

#2 Singles: Maassen vs. Levine – Neither of these guys has ever really played this high in the lineup. As a fan, I was looking at the P-P lineup thinking that this was their weak spot, but I’m far from convinced that Levine is gonna step in and be a star #2 singles player. Still, I’ll go with Levine in 3.

#3 Singles: Kim vs. Zheng – Zheng doesn’t lose a lot, but Kim has a history of coming up big in big moments. I’m leaning towards the guy with more Indoors experience. Zheng in 3.

#4 Singles: Bello vs. Arora – A junior with a big serve against a freshman from California who has as little experience with Indoor tennis as anyone on P-P’s roster. I like P-P here in two close sets.

#5 Singles: Malech vs. Kirkov – Kirkov beat Simonides the last time these two teams met, and I think he’ll do something similar to Malech by taking the second set in a tiebreaker.

#6 Singles: Mandic vs. Wadwani – Mandic is obviously playing some pretty good tennis right now if he’s holding off the rest of the Revolving door, but Wadwani has been here before and he’s been winning low singles matches at Indoors since before he was born. CMU in straights.

PICKS!

D3AS: PP def CMU 5-4, which makes me sad

D3Central: PP def. CMU 5-4

D3NE: PP def. CMU 5-4, with a doubles sweep!

D3West: CMU def. PP 5-4

D3Regional: PP def. CMU 5-4

D3Greek: CMU def. PP 5-4

#3 EMORY VS. #6 KENYON Friday at 9:00 a.m.

D3AS: I’m glad that I have one team in here that I can be really optimistic about.  As you saw in the master predictions article, a lot of the bloggers believe that Emory has the best shot to win it all. I was talking to them about what makes them think that and the conclusion I have come to is this. Indoor Nationals is Emory’s sh*t. This is what the Eagles do. They bring a lot of flair, great uniforms, team haircuts, but most of all, they bring a history of success to Indoor Nationals.  They play this tournament every year and know what to expect no matter where it is. I’m really high on Emory this year because I think they have a leader who exemplifies what the Eagles stand for and I think this will be their coming-out party.

For this first round matchup, there really isn’t much to preview.  Emory is going to torch the Lords in this one.  Kenyon’s doubles has struggled right off the bat and they are facing a huge uphill battle to turn their season around. If they could play any semblance of strong doubles they would have a chance, but they don’t.  Emory is a bit weak on the doubles court right now but that doesn’t mean they won’t take a lead. The combination of Mosetick/Jemison at #2 slots a really good shot at winning there, and Emory will put together some #3 team that will be solid no matter what.  I actually think Emory comes out of here with a sweep, overmatching the Lords with their positive and in-your-face energy.  In singles, the match to watch is Mosetick vs. Geier.  For all you Draftkings fans out there, Mosetick is our highest rated player and will face a tough test in the red hot Geier.  The rest of the lineup should be smooth sailing for the Eagles, where they simply have too much talent.  This will also be our first look at Jonathan Jemison in a big DIII match. I have high hopes for Jemison this year and a few of my insiders have really been hyping him up. At the end of the day I’m sure of this Emory win, and we’ll see them in the semifinals.

D3Central: Not only is this a match-up nightmare for Kenyon, they aren’t exactly on a high right now after their loss to Whitewater and the mysterious case of Fiaschetti leaving the team. The reason why the match-up is terrible mainly relies on Rafe being better than Geier which is the strongest point for the Lords. Emory has two “doubles specialists” playing at the top spot so I would have Kenyon favored in that one, but the rest of the way is going to be all Emory. There is always potential for Kenyon to find another match in the singles lineup and if anyone could do it I would expect Turlington to have the best shot. Mike Liu has surprised a lot of people this year and he will get another chance to prove his worth at that position in the lineup. I want to address the Geier/Rafe match again. I cannot underestimate Geier’s ability as he has the tools, mainly a forehand, to hit through a grinder like Rafe. But if there is an ultimate gamer in the field it’s Rafe and I don’t think I will ever pick against him in any match. If Geier pulls this one out, you have to start viewing him as a national title contender. Should be an interesting result.

PICKS!

D3AS: Emory def Kenyon 8-1, which makes me happy

D3Central: Emory def. Kenyon 8-1

D3NE: Emory def. Kenyon 8-1, with a singles sweep

D3West: Emory def. Kenyon 7-2

D3Regional:  Emory def. Kenyon 7-2

D3Greek: Emory def. Kenyon 6-3

#4 CHICAGO VS. #5 TRINITY TEXAS Friday at 9:00 a.m.

D3Greek: The blog has been hyping up this match for months now and with good reason – some say that Chicago and Trinity are the two best teams in the tournament. It’s really a shame that the best finish for one of them will be 5th. D3West does a great job of providing background on the Tigers and analyzing each match. So, I’ll briefly discuss Chicago. After the Maroons rolled through ITA Regionals, people were quick to point to Chicago as the early NCAA favorite. But, as you know from my earlier blurb on Wash U vs. Case, I don’t like overreacting to a single performance or tournament. Therefore, I view Indoors as Chicago’s first true test. Having already played two top 20 caliber teams and five matches, the Maroons have valuable experience on the indoor surface heading into Friday. That said, Chicago is a team that leaves its best tennis for the outdoor season. Recall last year for example; the Maroons dropped a nail biter, 5-4, to Case at the Cleveland Racquet Club but rebounded with a 6-3 win over the Spartans at UAAs. Because they are still young, I expect the Maroons’ best tennis to come in April and May again this year. Does this mean they’ll be thrashed by the Tigers? No. It just means that, like I’ve been saying, fans shouldn’t overreact either way this match goes.

The biggest takeaway after looking at Chicago’s lineup is that Luke Tsai is not starting. Instead, freshman Max Liu jumps in at No. 6 singles, and David Liu moves up to No. 5. Given Max Liu’s results thus far, I’m thinking the lineup change is more of a reflection on Liu rather than Tsai. Otherwise, Chicago’s starters are in line with what we have seen thus far into the season. Interestingly, Tsai doesn’t appear in doubles either. It’s important to note that he and Max Hawkins were a solid tandem last year, but Hawkins has yet to play this year. Hopefully, Hawkins just has a minor injury (he played at ITAs, and he’s listed on the roster), but I don’t think we’ll see him this weekend.

In order to win the opening round match, it’s imperative that Chicago takes a doubles point, which is very doable. With an All-American tandem, a pair of big hitters, and a duo that has the intangibles, the Maroons have a legitimate shot of winning any of the doubles matches (no, I don’t think they’ll sweep). Then, the Maroons will show if they’re still as strong as everyone makes them out to be in singles. The matches I’ll be paying attention to closely are No. 1 (two All-Americans), No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5. Rather than bore you by talking about those matches, considering that D3West does a great job running through each of them, I’ll let him take it away.

D3West: This is definitely the first round match I’m most looking forward to. We’ve got the defending champs against the tournament darling that’s starting to lose some of its media momentum in the wake of a close win over Kenyon. Regarding my team, Trinity historically struggled in the first round of Indoors as they adjusted to indoor tennis from the San Antonio sun, but they seem to have found an answer to that conundrum in recent years. With two key additions in the heart of the singles lineup, the Tigers appear poised for another top-10 year, if not better, but they also got a bum draw in the first round. For all of their strengths, I believe the few relative weaknesses they have might doom them in the first round here, which would be a drag because they are definitely one of the four best teams in the field, and they deserve to be in the semifinals. I’ll just show you what I’m thinking about in the match-by-match.

#1 Dubs: Krull/Tyer vs. Chua/D. Liu – Krull and Tyer are among the best doubles teams in the country (as evidenced by their ITA result), but at Indoors, #1 doubles often just turns into a coinflip, and I think that’s what this is. I’m leaning TU – 9-8.

#2 Dubs: Deuel/Niess vs. Pei/Leung – Wow, what a #2 doubles match! Four phenomenal returners with some deft hands to boot all around. Deuel and Niess are much streakier, but they might be able to take advantage of Chicago’s relative inexperience. I have them winning this one 9-7.

#3 Dubs: Guin/Mayer vs. Kranz/Zhang – I think if Chicago wins one doubles match, they take the whole thing, and this is where I think they’ll get it. Both teams have loaded their #3 teams with experience in terms of years, but, even though Guin is a senior, he hasn’t played much in the big moments, and I think that makes the difference here. 8-6 Chicago.

#1 Singles: Deuel vs. Chua – Deuel is no stranger to indoor tennis, but he might not be super familiar with the kinds of backhands Chua will be throwing at him. I.e: the kind of backhands that bounce 2 inches of the court before they scream by you. Nevertheless, it’s a must-win for Trinity, and I think they’re going to get it in three close sets.

#2 Singles: Krull vs. Kranz – This is really the only line where you could say that Trinity is definitively favored. Kranz has been a mediocre two for the past couple seasons, though he’s off to a good start this year. Krull, on the other hand, was among the best players in the country last year, and he was very solid at Indoors last season. I’m going with Krull in straights.

#3 Singles: Lambeth vs. Pei – The middle singles spots are where teams will have to beat Chicago this season if they’re going to beat them, but Trinity just isn’t built that way. They have four or five guys who are all excellent #5 singles players, but nobody has really demonstrated the ability to step in and win at #3 singles. I think Pei takes this one in straights.

#4 Singles: Tyer vs. Leung – Tyer hasn’t gotten himself off to a great start in singles so far this season, but I think it’s just because he’s playing a little bit above his paygrade. Things aren’t going to get easier for him against Leung. Leung may be coming off a loss at #3 against Kenyon, but he’ll be rock solid at #4. I like him in straights.

# 5 Singles: Mayer vs. D. Liu – If Trinity is going to pick off one of the lower singles matches, I think this probably has to be it. Mayer had a solid Indoors last year, beating Tanner Brown, but I don’t see it happening. Liu is too solid everywhere and has enough weapons to get it past one of the more diminutive Tigers. Liu in 3 sets.

#6 Singles: Niess vs. M. Liu – Max Liu might be a freshman, but he’s no stranger to the big moment. I’ve always liked Niess on the doubles court, but he’s never had particularly good results in singles, and I think Liu is simply going to overwhelm him here. Liu in straights.

PICKS!

D3AS: Trinity TX def. Chicago 5-4

D3Central: Chicago def. Trinity 5-4

D3NE: Chicago def. Trinity TX 5-4, overcoming a doubles deficit

D3West: Chicago def. Trinity TX 5-4

D3Regional: Chicago def. Trinity TX 6-3

D3Greek: Trinity TX def. Chicago 5-4

There you have it. The official picks in the first round for every single matchup. Most of the picks are going chalk, but it looks like there are two first rounds to really watch.  Thankfully, the matches will be at different times during the day so we get to experience them both on live stream.  Well, hopefully.  That’s assuming Case has their heads on right and gets the live video and stats working. We all know that live stats seem to give the ITA some issues. Kidding, of course! Anyways, there are your predictions. Feel free to take this information and make some changes or additions to your Draftkings teams. And as always, feel free to comment your predictions in the comments section.  Blog team, OUT.