Three big Central matches: Kenyon/Chicago/Whitewater

So the season is finally upon us which means a massive group text message conversation between all the bloggers discussing lineups, overreacting after the first 3 games of doubles, and the campaigning of having LoveD3Tennis come back in the comments section. While some of the matches that were played had some interesting story lines mainly with line up choices, there were no real fireworks and none were expected. I am hoping that narrative changes this weekend as there is a key tri-match on the docket. On Friday, Kenyon will take on Chicago. While that could be a good match, the real fireworks happen the following morning as a huge match-up between Kenyon and Whitewater will happen. I think this could be a nail biter with the result going either way depending on doubles. Chicago will finish the day with the Warhawks. A couple things of note before I break down each match. 1) None of the three teams have shown their full strength lineup in my opinion. With that, I will have to predict who will play where. 2) The schedule benefits the Warhawks the most. Kenyon will travel Friday to play Chicago late in the evening likely not finishing until 10 PM. They will turn around and play Whitewater at 9 AM in the morning the following day. So with those two things in mind, here are my thoughts!

Kenyon vs. Chicago Friday at 6 PM

In years past, I would be a bit more worried about this match for the Maroons, but with the talent draining slowly from the Kenyon program and booming for Chicago, I think they will get through with only a few paces on the sideline from Coach Tee. I still think that Chicago’s doubles are their weakness even with the talent they have and the success they have shown. For now, I would put #1 doubles of Chua and D. Liu vs. Geier and Kaye close to a toss up. With a gun to my head, I would pick the Maroon tandem, but I truly could see this one going either way. Chua and Liu overcame a slow start against a fiery Coe team to win in a tiebreak. They need to avoid that slow start against the Lords. At #2, Fiaschetti and Paolucci had an impressive blowout win to backup the strong fall performance. Peter Leung and Charlie Pei will be a pretty big mountain across the net. I would never argue which team has more talent as Chicago has that with ease, but the big serving, disciplined doubles tandem the Lords throws out there may cause some big problems. I also see this as a toss up and going to surprise a few people by picking Kenyon to win this one. Chicago’s three doubles team was extremely surprising to me. I didn’t expect to see Sven Kranz or Gordon Zheng in the doubles lineup at all let along together. I am still skeptical that this will stay the same for long as I would rather see the experienced team of Tsai and Hawkins play. The good news is that I don’t see it mattering as they will have too much for Kenyon’s #3 team, likely Hazlett and Smith.

Singles is where I see Chicago really taking control. The lineup of Chua, Pei, Leung, Tsai, D. Liu, and Max Liu took down Coe pretty easily. I was surprised not to see Kranz in this lineup and I actually think he will play #4 when the Maroons are at full strength. If that happens, I think that is the only weakness in the lineup for Chicago. This isn’t because Kranz isn’t good, but rather I see Kenyon’s strongest position to be #4 singles. Kranz went from playing #3 to #8 in a matter of two matches so who knows if I am right there. I will get in to the Kenyon lineup a bit more in the next preview, but it looks like it will be Turlington so a match up with Kranz should be a good one. Yes Geier hits big enough on the forehand side to take down Chua, but he will get just as much power coming back at him with the Chua backhand. Cross court rally highlights between those two would be fun to watch. Overall I see this match finishing 7-2 with Kenyon getting a win at one of the doubles spots and then Turlington getting a win at #4 no matter who he plays.

Kenyon vs. Whitewater Saturday at 9 AM

Now this is the match I had circled long ago as it is Whitewater’s chance to pull off a marquee win. As I said above, Whitewater should have a slight edge in terms of being a bit more fresh coming into this match. They should hope that Kenyon gives Chicago all they have and have some heavy legs the next morning. Whitewater can win this match, but with the recent revealing of lineups, I am backing off the possibilities a bit. I am a bit worried about the health of the Warhawks as they tend to always have someone injured. If I remember correctly, someone important was out last season at this time changing things (maybe Shklyar?). In doubles, it should be a war at every position. I like Treis and Humphreys over Geier and Kaye at the top spot, but again it should be close. I would pick Kenyon to take down #2 doubles, but I can’t really guess who will play at this spot for Whitewater. I think Ramen Noodles is guaranteed, but will he partner with Scott Butler or Grant Thompson? Whoever features at #2 means the other will be at #3 with another question mark. That question mark worries me less as I like Whitewater at #3. Until Kenyon can find a consistent winner at #3 doubles, I will continue to pick against them. That would put Whitewater up 2-1 going into singles. UPSET ALERT!!!!

Ok singles is where it can get a bit more interesting. Kenyon’s lineup wasn’t full this weekend, but here is the lineup I expect to come out against the Warhawks: 1) Geier 2) Fiaschetti 3) Mike Liu, 4) Turlington 5) Paolucci 6) Roberts/???? IF, and that’s a big IF, this lineup is correct, I fear for the Lords. If Mike Liu plays #2 and Fiaschetti plays #3, I am much more comfortable that Kenyon will win. Either way, #3 singles is going to be a big turning point if my doubles prediction comes true. The emergence of Mike Liu is the biggest surprise for me. I had him slotted at #6 for Kenyon in the preview, but he must be playing with a lot of confidence and worked hard in the off season to make that large of a jump. Do I think he should be playing #2? No I do not. Do I think putting him at #2 is a smart coaching decision albeit a little questionable? Yes I do. It will be interesting to see who plays where, but for fun let’s put Liu at #2. The Geier vs Humphreys match is likely to be a war. I like Humphreys speed, heavy topspin, and consistency to cause Geier’s forehand to break down giving Humphreys the edge. At #2 Treis is favored over Liu without question. This gives Whitewater 4 points. Now trying to find the elusive fifth point is the issue. I pointed to #3 singles as the decider and it would pit Fiaschetti against Noodles. I can’t say why Fiaschetti didn’t play in their first match, but I expect him to play this weekend and give him the nod to beat Noodles in three sets. Noodles is not an easy out so it could be a great match. At #4, I like Turlington over Thompson, but Thompson is more than capable of getting an upset. Kenyon will just be much stronger than Whitewater at 5 and 6. Paolucci is going to be a stud most of the season that low in the lineup and Whitewater is weak at 6.

With that, I have Kenyon taking down Whitewater 5-4 on the strength of wins from 3-6 singles. If the lineup has Fiaschetti at 2 and Liu at 3, I am going to go with Whitewater winning 5-4! For that to happen, all the pieces have to fall in place and the Warhawks will have to be ahead after doubles.

Whitewater vs Chicago at 6 PM

My gut tells me this match is going to be disappointing because the Warhawks are going to give every drop of sweat and blood attempting to beat Kenyon. With that, they are likely to sit some key (oft injured guys) against the more talented Chicago team. If Humphreys or Treis sit, the extremely slight chance of Whitewater scaring Chicago drops to zero. Since I have already broken down the lineups in the previous matches, I will just get right to the predictions as if the lineups were full. I like Whitewater to take 1 doubles, but fall at 2 and 3. Again, this assumes that Treis and Humphreys play together at 1. It pits two ITA winners against one another. Chua will prove too much for Humphreys in singles and then Chicago will roll the rest of the Warhawks with their depth. Treis will put up a fight, but come up short. I see this match being an 8-1 or 7-2 finish.

I truly wish I could make it to Chicago for these matches, but sadly I have a prior commitment. Whitewater and Chicago are great at keeping the twitter world informed so I will be glued to my phone keeping up with this match. Let’s hope for fireworks!