The Guru’s Top 20 Teams of the Past Five Years

As the blog historian, I wanted to come in with my version of a season kickoff article. This will review the top 20 teams of the past five years as determined by average finish between the 2011 and 2015 seasons. There is one exception to this which I will explain below. I will also take a look at where each team stands headed into the 2016 spring season. Before we get into the team-by-team analysis, let’s first review some interesting observations from the list and trends.

– There have been nine different teams who have finished in the top 5 during the period, but only one team that has finished in the top 5 all years – Wash U

– There have been 15 different teams who have finished in the top 10 during the period, but only five teams that have finished in the top 10 all years – CMS, Amherst, Wash U, Emory and Trinity TX

– Going back to 2010, no team that has won nationals has finished better than the quarterfinals in the following year. National title winners have typically been senior-heavy teams and programs have taken a while to rebuild. It will be very interesting to see what CMS can do in 2016. This fact is a big contributor to the first point I made.

– I found it interesting when doing the averages that there are pretty clear cut tiers of teams separated by only two ranking spots and between those tiers there are noticeable dropoffs. 1-4, 5-8, 9-11, 12-15 and 16-18.

– There are a few teams that deserve mention that did not make the list and there was one executive decision I made after discussing with The Headmaster. These teams are Cal Lutheran, NC Wesleyan, Trinity CT, UT-Tyler and Skidmore. Originally I had set out to disqualify any team that finished a year unranked, but as you’ll see Gustavus made the list and they were unranked in 2011. If I had gone strictly by this methodology of excluding any team finishing unranked, Cal Lu would have made the list, however they finished 34th in 2015, when the rankings changed to 40 teams. They would have been unranked in 2015 by the old system across 2011-2013, so I chose not to include them especially given their recent downfall. If I had to pick a team that was ranked in the top 30 every year, the next team to make this list would be Skidmore with an average finish of 24.6. However, they did not have any years where they finished inside the top 20, so I thought it was counterintuitive to include them in a top 20 teams list. Trinity CT, UT-Tyler and NC Wesleyan failed to be ranked in one year, but had 4-year averages excluding that year which would include them in the list. UT-Tyler’s is 22.0 excluding 2012, Trinity CT’s is 22.0 excluding 2013 and NC Wesleyan’s is 16.8 excluding 2014. I penalized NC Wesleyan because they failed to be ranked in 2014 when 40 teams were ranked. So that left me with a decision to include Tyler, Trinity CT or Gustavus. I chose Gustavus due to their strong last few years and most distant year being unranked. Bates made the list despite their 22.8 average because they have been inside the top 30 all five years AND they had a year finishing inside the top 20. While I realize the inclusion of Gustavus was arbitrary, I wanted to explain how I arrived at that conclusion.

20) Bates – Average 22.8; 26, 16, 23, 28, 21
The Bobcats kick off our article with an average ranking of 22.8 including one year in the top 20 where they were robbed of an NCAA appearance in my opinion. Over the period, Bates has been the 5th best team in the NESCAC (and Northeast) although the tables have turned recently with the emergence of Wesleyan and Tufts. Bates has been consistently inconsistent, often having very good wins and bad losses. Their 2015 season highlights this very well as it included losses to Tufts, NC Wesleyan and Mary Washington, but wins over two top 10 teams in Bowdoin and Pomona-Pitzer. The Bobcats have a two year win streak against Bowdoin, but unfortunately the uphill battle for Bates is that it is nearly impossible for them to make the NCAA tournament given the current system. They have always had strong top players and occasionally strong bottom of the lineup spots, but they have never had enough good players to string together a full season of top 15 play.

19) Mary Washington – Average 20.4; 22, 21, 28, 15, 16
The strange thing when reviewing Mary Wash’s performance is that from a distance, it seems like this team hasn’t been that different during the past several years. However, the rankings tell a different story as there is a gap of 13 spots between their highest and lowest finish. The Eagles are still beating who they are supposed to beat and losing who they are supposed to lose to. Their ranking is influenced by the overall quality of DIII in a given year. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember them having a top 10 win during the past five years. That said, they have turned in solid top 20 performances during the past two seasons and remain a team that can push top teams to close 5-4 and 6-3 matches. They are very different than Bates in that you know what you are going to get from the Eagles. They are never in real danger of losing their conference and have turned that into becoming a Sweet 16 fixture over the past few seasons to end a string of poor NCAA performances.

18T) Gustavus – Average 18.8; UR, 25, 18, 14, 18
Gustavus is the one team on this list that was not ranked all five years, but as I explained above, I looked the other way and rewarded the Gusties performance during the past three seasons. Between 2013 and 2015, Gustavus had an average finish of 16.7, which is the exact same as Redlands. GAC has made three Sweet 16s in a row and has pushed numerous top teams, but they have not had a top 10 win in many years. They typically play good doubles, but have trouble keeping up with the top 10 on the singles court. Since Coach Wilkinson’s departure, Tommy Valentini has done a commendable job with the program, but taking the next step and consistently becoming a top 15 team will be difficult. Gustavus has a tough schedule as usual in 2016, but they will not be hosting Indoors this year. They travel to California for the Stag-Hen and they will play Trinity, Tyler and Wash U during a Texas trip. Despite having to bend the rules, I feel good about including GAC on this list at #18 because I think they deserve the recognition.

18T) Chicago – Average 18.8; 11, 30, 30, 17, 6
At this point, everyone is well aware that Chicago has moved far away from its old reputation and the Maroons head into 2016 as the trendy pick to win the national title. They come in tied for 18th on this list due to back to back finishes of 30 in 2012 and 2013. Coach Tee has taken the nation by storm and turned this team around, so while they appear low on this list, it’s pretty irrelevant because a national title for this team is inevitable. Looking backward, the Maroons only good season was in 2011 when they beat Wash U and entered the tournament as regional top seed only to fall in the Sweet 16. In fact, without that win against Wash U, it is very possible they wouldn’t have made this list despite their #6 finish in 2015. They are #1 almost across the board in the 2016 power rankings and the future is very bright for Chicago who will most likely field a singles lineup that includes no seniors.

16) Whitman – Average 17.8; 29, 14, 16, 13, 17
Much like Mary Washington, Whitman has shown a similar level of consistency during the past few years, only they have been slightly better. The Squirrels have turned in four consecutive performances between 13 and 17 and they nearly broke through that barrier in 2015 when they pushed Wash U to the brink in an epic Sweet 16 match. As we know, Whitman suffers from their geography and this causes them to have limited chances against top teams in the country. However, they still grow as a program and are solidly in the top 20 for the time being, often producing some impressive results. They have had a few strong wins, but no top 5 signature wins. Whitman continues to execute their strategy of developing their players and winning with doubles and strong depth. They have beaten Redlands a couple years in a row now and play a 2016 schedule that includes the Bulldogs, Tufts, Bowdoin, CMS and both top Texas teams. We know they are never an easy out and I expect more of the same in 2016.

15) Redlands – Average 16.4; 15, 17, 14, 21, 15
The blog has been very hard on Redlands and their historical inability to win close matches, but the Bulldogs come in with a very respectable performance of #15 on this list. They have finished between 14 and 21 every year I looked at, and have solidified themselves as a consistent teens-ranked team. The Bulldogs play the majority of their matches on their home courts, a notoriously difficult place to play and the amount of 5-4 matches they’ve been in during the past few years is higher than I can count. Redlands finally won a close match against a top 10 in 2015 when they beat Pomona-Pitzer, but it remains to be seen if they can carry that momentum into 2016. The Bulldogs have been in NCAAs a couple times during the past several years, but no one seems to see them as a threat to break into the top 12 in the country any time soon.

14) Santa Cruz – Average 16.0; 6, 9, 12, 23, 30
Cruz’s ranking has dropped every year and the program has been going in the wrong direction primarily due to their well-publicized budget issues and the loss of Bob Hansen after the 2011 season. Despite that, on this list the Slugs come in at #4 in the West region with an average ranking of #16 over the past five years – a very respectable performance given the coaching carousel and obstacles that the program has faced. Cruz looks primed to stay in the top 30 in the 2016 season, but they are far from being what they once were. The fight that the Slugs have shown during the past few seasons is admirable, but the development that was once present in Santa Cruz just isn’t there anymore. Cruz plays a fairly soft schedule this year with their only tricky out-of-region matches against Chicago and Colby, so their odds are pretty good to stay in the top 30 if they can beat the Mules and get in-region wins against Cal Lu and Chapman.

13) Carnegie Mellon – Average 15.0; 17, 19, 19, 9, 11
For as much time as we spend talking about CMU’s talent, it is amazing to think they finished outside the top 15 between 2011 and 2013. They come in at a fairly strong #13 on this list with an average ranking of #15 through the past five years, good for 3rd in the Atlantic South region and 4th in the UAA. CMU’s rankings show the team is headed in the right direction, but one of the main things that sticks out in my mind is that they’ve only made one NCAA tournament during this period, and were upset despite being the 5th overall seed. The Tartans have another opportunity in 2016 to play to their talent level because with the exception of 2014, it seems as though this team always has a glaring weakness which has done them in. With the UAA being brutally difficult in 2016 after the emergence of Chicago, every match is crucial for CMU if they want to grab a Pool C spot and return to NCAAs.

12) Case Western – Average 14.4; 19, 18, 13, 8, 14
The story for Case is similar to that for CMU and the two teams are separated by only 0.6 ranking spots, often being compared in the last few years. Case turned nothing into something very quickly and showed a steady rise between 2011 and 2014. I said before the 2015 season that taking another step forward would be difficult, and this proved to be true as the Spartans turned in a performance of #14. It’s amazing to think that a team which was an afterthought 6-7 years ago would emerge as a top 12 team between 2011 and 2015. Case hosts Indoors this year and opens with a match against a seemingly vulnerable Wash U squad. The last time Case hosted Indoors, they were able to pull an upset against Kenyon, so we will see if it happens again. Coach Todd has stacked the Spartans schedule once again as they will play Indoors, the Stag-Hen, the UAA tournament and matches against NC Wesleyan, Chicago, Wash U and Hopkins. Case works extremely hard and I’m interested to see where they end up in 2016.

11) Bowdoin – Average 11.4; 14, 7, 11, 16, 9
Things were really looking up when Conor Smith arrived in Brunswick in 2012 and the Polar Bears had their best season in recent memory, finishing 7th in the country, making the NESCAC final and NCAA quarters. Then #goldfishgate happened, and Bowdoin went back to being Bowdoin – a very solid team that’s usually a Sweet 16 finisher ranked somewhere between 9 and 17. Looking at their whole body of play, Bowdoin has an average finish of 11.4, good enough to be the 11th best team in the country and the 4th best team in the Northeast. You usually know what you are going to get from the Polar Bears and they have played good tennis the past couple years, but they have not been able to find their magic from 2012. As is typical for Bowdoin, they play a stacked schedule in 2016 with out of conference matches against Whitman, Skidmore, CMS, Brandeis and Stevens. They enter the season projected 3rd in the NESCAC and this has been the story for Bowdoin the past few years: not quite as good as the top teams but a step above the rest.

10) Pomona-Pitzer – Average 10.2; 8, 11, 17, 11, 4
The Hens spent the majority of the late 2000s stuck between 20 and 30 in the rankings, so to see them emerge with an average ranking of 10.2 during the past five years is impressive. We have talked endlessly about their 2015 campaign which ended up with a #4 finish, but they also had a strong 2011, 2012 and 2014. They have established themselves as a top three team in the West, well ahead of Cruz and Redlands who beat them comfortably for years. Coach Bickham seems to have taken this team to the next level during his tenure, so it will be interesting to see if the Hens can stay in the top 10 during 2016. They play a typical loaded schedule, although they did ease up a bit from last year. They start with a massive Pool C match at Indoors against CMU and also have notable matches against Bates, Mary Wash, Gustavus as part of Stag-Hen, Skidmore, Amherst, Stevens, Williams, Middlebury and west rivals. They have certainly stepped up their recruiting lately, so we will see if that continues to turn into results after their historic 2015 season.

9) Johns Hopkins – Average 10.0; 13, 8, 10, 7, 12
The bloggers have been hard on Hopkins for as good as they’ve been. When their recruiting class entered in 2012, many predicted a national title in the next four years. However, that didn’t come close to happening and instead the Blue Jays settled for three NCAA quarterfinal appearances in four years, an Indoors final appearance in 2014 including a win over Emory and three years finishing the season in the top 10. While that seems like a very respectable resume, a lot of people considered it underachieving given the talent JHU had. JHU gets hit hard by graduations headed into 2016, but they still have a strong core of players that should allow the Jays to compete for the top 10 again. Their place as the 9th best team on this list is good for 2nd in the Atlantic South. They have finished an average of six spots below Emory, but five spots ahead of CMU, a team to whom their often compared. Their 2016 schedule isn’t particularly tough. It includes matches against Bates, CMU, Emory, Mary Wash, NC Wesleyan and Case. If the Jays can go five for six, it’s possible we will see them in their fourth quarterfinal in five years.

7T) Middlebury – Average 7.8; 9, 15, 9, 4, 2
I’m sure people have made this point, but I will make it again. In Hansen’s four years with Midd, the Panthers have taken one step forward each year. They went from Sweet 16 in 2012 to Elite Eight in 2013 to semis in 2014 to finals in 2015. Their season has also been ended by CMS each of the past three years. The Panthers took a few years to rebuild after their 2010 squad won nationals with five seniors starting, but the Panthers have fully reloaded without a doubt and are one of the favorites to win nationals in 2016.Over the past few years, we have seen senior-heavy teams winning nationals, and while that team with three of four senior starters doesn’t exist this year, Middlebury is closest we’ve got with Smolyar and Campbell leading the way (shoutout to my fantasy team!). They also have the top ranked player in the country and we all know how well Hansen coaches doubles. Midd doesn’t play a very tough out of conference schedule with their only tests against Pomona and CMS. With Chicago just getting better and CMS, Amherst and Emory not dominant, this may be the best shot Midd has in the next few years to win a national title.

7T) Trinity TX – Average 7.8; 10, 10, 8, 3, 8
As I said in the introduction, Trinity is the only team outside of the top four to finish in the top 10 all five years we are looking at and their stretch actually extends back to 2010 when they finished 10th. Although the Tigers have been between #8 and #10 for five of six years, that’s impressive consistency that none of their peers have shown. For a long time, the Tigers were a very good team that couldn’t beat the top teams, but that changed in 2014 when they finished 3rd and were very close to a national title. Trinity followed that up with a National Indoors Title in 2015 and another top 8 finish. The Tigers head into 2016 and a monster Indoor quarterfinal match with a squad that looks primed to make another run at the top 5. They have a strategy of development, attracting D1 transfers and playing great doubles that continues to be extremely effective. They are not consistently talked about with the Emorys and Wash Us of the world, but they have taken steps toward entering that tier in recent years. Their 2016 schedule is tough with Indoors, the Stag-Hen, Wesleyan, Gustavus, Wash U, Tyler and Whitman and we will see if they can build on their average five-year finish of 7.8.

6) Kenyon – Average 7.2; 7, 2, 5, 12, 10
When I was first making this list, the team that surprised me the most was Kenyon, coming in as the 6th best team of the past five years. The Lords really had a great 2011-2013, but they have slipped in the last two seasons. I was very low on Kenyon headed in 2015, but their team showed a lot of resiliency and earned a top regional seed on their way to a #10 finish. This team is well-coached and has always found ways to win despite not having as much talent as a lot of their opponents. However, the Lords haven’t been the same team following their 2013 National Indoors title which catapulted them to #1 in the country. Something went missing and they lost in the quarters of NCAAs only to unravel in 2014 and drop to #12. Kenyon enters 2016 with low expectations and most see them as the weakest team at Indoors. Besides that, their schedule also includes Chicago, Whitewater, Stag-Hen, NC Wesleyan and CMU. I think it would be a huge victory for the Lords to finish 2016 in the top 10, but they certainly proved critics wrong in 2015 as I had the same attitude about them a year ago.

5) Williams – Average 6.2; 4, 3, 1, 10, 13
As has been a consistent theme in this post, Williams is still recovering from graduations after their 2013 national title. Dan Greenberg showed that he was an elite coach and built the Williams team from a Sweet 16 finisher in 2010 to a national champion to 2013, but the question is whether or not he can do it again. Williams has certainly not been a top tier team the past two seasons, but they find their way to #5 on this list due to their three consecutive top 4 finishes in 2011 to 2013. The Ephs have no trouble recruiting, but during the past couple seasons they have been lacking a strong top of the lineup and this has hurt them against top conference foes. Williams will have to battle to make NCAAs this year, but they have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their convincing win over Amherst in the 2015 NESCAC semis. Williams has been inconsistent as is often the case with young teams. Out of conference matches in 2016 include Pomona, Redlands and CMS, which will all be good tests early in the season. We will see if the Ephs can stop their slide in 2016 and find their way back into the top 8.

4) Emory – Average 4.0; 2, 1, 6, 6, 5
Emory comes in at 4th on this list with an average finish of #4, although I want to focus on the fact that they haven’t been the same team since Pottish and Goodwin led this team to a national title in 2012. In the 11 seasons between 2002 and 2012, the Eagles had no finish worse than #4 in the country, 10 trips to the Final Four and three national titles. In the past three seasons, Emory has yet to make it back to the Final Four and although they look to have a chance to make a deep run this year, that’s far from a certainty. There’s no doubt that this is still a dominant program which puts fear into other teams, but they are not as dominant as they once were. Losses the past three seasons have included Kenyon, CMU, Trinity TX and Hopkins. I don’t think they lost to any of these teams between 2002 and 2012. Much like we’ve seen with other teams, it takes a little to rebuild after a national title, we are just not used to seeing the Eagles be this vulnerable. They play a tough schedule as always in 2016, beginning with a pretty clear path to the Indoor finals followed by the Stag-Hen, Mary Wash, Hopkins and UAAs. We know Emory will be around when the Elite Eight comes, it’s just a matter of winning the big quarterfinal match that they haven’t been able to do the last few years.

3) Wash U – Average 3.8; 3, 4, 4, 5, 3
No team besides the Bears has finished top 5 in all seasons that were looked at. I commended Trinity’s consistency above, but Wash U takes it to another level. Although this streak is impressive, Wash U has not made it to a national final in seven seasons and in their last four semifinal appearances, they haven’t put more than two points on the board in any of the matches. So while they’ve been extremely consistent in being a top tier team and come in 3rd on this list, they haven’t really come close to winning the national title. The Bears have a long list of accomplishments including UAA titles and the 2014 Indoors title, but I know they want to get back to the NCAA final badly. Their 2016 squad looks vulnerable much like it has in previous years, but Wash U always finds a way to make into the top 5 and I expect 2016 won’t be an exception. The Bears enter Indoors as the top seed and have a tricky first round with the hosts before they will be an underdog in the semis no matter who they play. On top of Indoors, the Bears schedule includes Gustavus, Trinity TX, Tyler, Case, Chicago, Whitewater and UAAs. I know a lot of people aren’t high on the 2016 Bears, but I have no doubt this team will make a lot of noise at the end of the season as they always do.

2) Amherst – Average 3.4; 1, 5, 3, 1, 7
The only reason Amherst isn’t #1 on this list is because of their quarterfinal loss to Chicago in 2015. The Jeffs have won two national titles in the past five years and have made another Final Four run, but two upset losses in 2012 and 2015 have kept them from having an even better five year stretch. A lot of Amherst’s success should be credited to Chris Garner, who led the Jeffs to four national final appearances in the six seasons between 2009 and 2014. This included two national titles. He has now moved on to D1, but Amherst still has an extremely capable coach in Todd Doebler. I have not forgotten that Amherst beat eventual runner-up Middlebury 9-0 very late in the 2015 season. Herst returns the majority of their 2015 team and comes into this season a little under the radar with most people high on Chicago and Middlebury. Their 2016 out of conference schedule includes Pomona, Redlands, CMS, MIT and Skidmore. We know by now not to put too much weight on Amherst’s regular season results when looking at their NCAA chances because there hasn’t been much correlation recently. Everyone should have learned in the past seven seasons not to sleep on Amherst, so I’ll be sure to remember this throughout the 2016 season.

1) CMS – Average 3.2; 5, 6, 2, 2, 1
It’s no surprise that CMS tops this list with an average finish of 3.2. The Stags have gone finals, finals, national champions between 2013 and 2015 and they have put together three consecutive undefeated regular seasons. Although it was a little overdue, the Stags finally got the monkey off their back in 2015 and this was a team that was as dominant as any team we’ve ever seen in D3. As I’ve said numerous times by now, it may take CMS a little time to rebuild after losing key seniors from the 2015 team. One thing we do know is that CMS will certainly be battle-tested by 2016 NCAAs. They’ve put together a schedule that includes Bates, CMU, the Stag-Hen, Whitman, Amherst, Bowdoin, Chicago, Williams, Middlebury and their typical western rivals. The Stags have a young team this year with several players playing in spots much higher than they’re used to. However, they should look at this season with a nothing to lose attitude after a truly incredible stretch between 2013 and 2015. We haven’t seen a national champion do better than the NCAA quarters the following year in a long time, so I’m very interested to see if the Stags can use their current confidence to carry them into the 2016 Final Four.