2016 Season Preview: #29 Sewanee Tigers

ASouth Edit: I started this preview about 4 weeks ago, after a happy hour/dinner with two of my main dudes.  As you probably realize, this preview didn’t finish because I got too sleepy after that dinner session (lots of margaritas, my god) but I am back after a few other previews to finish this one off.  Sorry about that, Tigers!

SUP PLAYASSSSSS.  I just got out of a sick happy hour/dinner sesh with the one and only @d3centraltennis and of course the Guru aka @d3tennis, and I’m feeling the blood flow into this Sewanee preview.  Now, I don’t normally like to do Sewanee previews and D3Regional actually took the reins last year on this team, but I guess since they got better I’ve got to do the heavy lifting this year.  Right now I’m pretty pumped up because the bloggers are planning a potential Vegas trip together, like we don’t get enough of each other already.  Catch me at the roulette table owning D3Northeast in luck and skill (there is skill at roulette, trust me), but that’s maybe in the spring.  Maybe I’ll finally get to meet D3West, even though he pretty much hates everyone.  Anyways, enough about the bloggers because we talk about ourselves too much already.  Let’s get to the preview.  This is THE University of the South.

Coach: John Shackelford, 31^st Season (are you kidding me)

Location: Sewanee, TN

Preseason Ranking: #29

Blog Power Ranking: #29

Twitter Handle: @USouthTennis

Overview

The University of the South is a storied program that has a few national championships under its belt, although that was before DIII Tennis got straight up crazy up in here.  Coach John Shackleford has seriously seen it all, and he should totally ride around practice on a hover-board to show how hip he is and that he’s not old at all.  USouth Tennis has been a #25-35 ranked team as of late, and I’m here to tell you that that probably won’t change after this year.  They are currently ranked #29 in the nation with a blog power ranking of #29 as well.  I’d say a successful season for the Tigers would be to break into the top 25, where they haven’t been in a while.  They also have a few individual performers who could break out and qualify for nationals and make a run.  Last year, Sewanee got ousted by Whitman in the Round of 16 in what actually turned out to be a not so close match, which was a little unexpected.  However, Sewanee got that NCAA win that they wanted, which was probably one of their goals last year.  I would expect the same to be the goal this year, as the team has some talent but not enough to compete with any of the #2 seeds in their projected regions.

Key Additions – Jack Gray (not rated), Alex De Pascual (2 star), Sean Halloran (2 star), Fletcher Kerr (2 star), Mac McCullough (2 star)

Key Losses – Rand Jackson (#2 Singles, #3 Doubles), Alex Cooper (#6 Singles, #1 Doubles)

Lineup Overview

#1 Singles, Avery Schober – Schober has been the USouth #1 for two years prior, and this will mark his third year at the top spot in his junior year.  Schober’s career resembles what I thought Matt Heinrich’s career was going to be, which is to say that he’s basically an average #1 singles player who can come up with some upsets but isn’t necessarily a top player.  Schober continued that trend in this year’s Emory ITA, losing to Andrew Harrington of Emory (who projects to be a #3 or #4 singles player).  It’s always so tough to take that next step when it comes to #1 singles.  Right now, Schober proved he has the goods to be a national championship qualifier but still has not proven that he can beat the top players in the nation/region such as Mosetick, Alla, etc.  In fact, he needs to beat CJ Antonio this year first.  Expect an average but not spectacular year this year from Avery.

#2 Singles, Eric Roddy – Since Avery has basically locked down the #1 spot, Roddy has gotten the benefit of never being the top dog on the USouth team as  he goes into his senior season.  Roddy is the leader on this team and he will be relied upon to get 2 points against top teams in order to pull upsets.  While Schober was mostly uninspiring at the top spot last year, Roddy was a slightly better performer, notching wins against Trinity CT and Denison and losing close to Cummins of Redlands and Putterman of Wash U.  Roddy is also a bigtime doubles contributor, where he has lots of experience at the top spot.  Sticking to singles, Roddy lost in a split set affair to Alec Josepher of Emory in the Round of 16, which is not intriguing for the rest of the year.  These are dudes that your #2 singles player needs to beat.

#3 Singles, Connor Winkler – I feel like every one of these lineup previews ends up the same, with a player that is solid at his position but cannot seem to beat the top players at his position.  Winkler is no different at #3, as he took losses last year to Wagner (Emory), Duncan (CMU), Cerny (CNU), Dulle (Redlands) and Traff (Trinity CT).  In the ITA this year, he got steamrolled by future Emory #3 player Aman Manji, which again, seems like a sign of things to come this season.  Now, at least we’re talking about the best players in the country, so Winkler can potentially take out some #20-30 #3 singles players.

#4 Singles, Jack Gray – The freshman doubles sensation Jack Gray is being penciled in at #4, because I assume a dude that “knows doubles better than anyone else” has to be at least semi-talented in singles.  Sorry, I had to.  Gray is a big dude with a big serve, but let’s see if he has the game to hold up in singles.  He won a round in the Emory ITA and ended up losing to James Spaulding of Emory, who projects to be a #6-8 player in the Emory lineup.  Now, that sounds bad, but those players could probably play #2 or #3 on this team, and Gray’s result was a 6-4, 7-5 loss.  Gray could end up being one of the stronger singles spots for the Tigers if his singles game is half of his doubles game.  Here’s a potential bright spot for Sewanee.

#5 Singles, Scott Gallimore – Gallimore played #4/5 last year depending on who was playing in the match, and is slated to potentially move up permanently to the #4 spot this year with the loss of Rand Jackson.  Now, this could be a temporary move as I believe that the Tigers might throw Jack Gray in at #4, but I don’t have enough intel on Gray to tell you that he could definitely play #4 singles.  So, I slot Gallimore in at this spot where I think he is absolutely overmatched.  He actually ended up playing #6 last year at the end of the year.  Now that I think of it, Gray is definitely going to take his place.  Let’s slot Gallimore down at #5 singles.  Either way, Sewanee really struggles with depth and Gallimore needs to up his game to compete with even mid-range teams.  He lost to every ranked team he played last year other than Christopher Newport, which isn’t that intriguing.

#6 Singles, Davis Owen/Fletcher Kerr – I’m going off of the ITA competitors for this spot, which features sophomore Davis Owen or freshman Fletcher Kerr.  Both of these guys were put into the A draw, which I presume means they are the first choice for Shackleford when it comes to singles.  Also, don’t be surprised if Gallimore potentially gets overtaken by one if not two of these young players if he struggles.  Owen got a tough draw in the second round of the ITA and got smoked by Jonathan Jemison (Emory #2) while Fletcher Kerr ended up losing badly to Alec Josepher of Emory as well.  I can’t really delve into these results too much, but right now my gut says that Owen gets the spot.  Thing is, Owen wasn’t able to crack the lineup last year as a freshman, so this doesn’t allow me to have much confidence in the #6 spot for the Tigers right now.

Doubles – If the Tigers are going to crack the top 25, they’re going to need to do it in doubles.  One thing that they have going for them is the team of Roddy/Gray, who as you know made the finals of the Small College Nationals, taking out a few good teams in the process.  While making the finals is awesome, the two teams they beat (UWW #1 and Skidmore #1) just so happen to be on teams ranked in the mid 20s.  I know it’s nit picking, but I would have loved to see Sewanee take out a Chicago/Hopkins team in the tournament to really cement their top dog status.  Right now, there are still going to be questions about how good this team really is.  However, I expect them to be a top 5-7 team in the nation, which is nothing to snoot about.  I’m not going to predict who else will be the doubles teams, but I would expect Schober/Winkler to step up at the #2 and #3 spots.  This could make Sewanee a very strong doubles team, but they will have to erase some of their talent deficit with good fundamentals and chemistry to get some sweeps or at least 2-1 leads against ranked teams.  Again, doubles is a key for the Tigers this year.

The Schedule – Key Matches and More

Here’s the Sewanee schedule:

http://sewaneetigers.com/sports/mten/2015-16/schedule

As you can see, Sewanee loads their schedule up in February with some regional teams such as Piedmont, etc, that really won’t challenge them all that much.  If they lose any of these DIII matches, they’ll be knocked out of the top 30.  They won’t though, so let’s skip that portion.

In March, they kick off with the big boys of their schedule.  First we go to Emory, where Sewanee is going to look on improving their 9-0 defeat from last year.  I don’t think the South has any shot in this match, especially judging by ITA results, so it will be moral victories here and there.  Also, Schober gets his first shot at a top player in his region.  From there, Sewanee goes on a long Spring Break, where they will play regional opponent CMU and two out of region opponents in Chapman, Whittier, and Trinity CT.  CMU will blow them out (another opp for Roddy/Gray and Schober, though), but the Chapman and Trinity CT matches are going to be huge for the Tigers.  I think the Trinity CT match is a great opportunity for them.  If they win those three matches (they should beat Chapman and Whittier), Sewanee has a shot at the top 25.  Trinity CT is overranked right now and ripe for an upset.  Successful Spring Break means 3 wins for the Tigers, as I mentioned.

After Spring Break, Sewanee takes on their conference, which basically is a cupcake.  I don’t know how many conference championships the Tigers have won in a row but it’s definitely a lot.  Don’t expect the Tigers to lose any of these matches either.  However, there is a sneaky matchup with Washington and Lee thrown in there, which has become a sort of grudge match between the two teams as of late.  The Generals lack of success recently has coincided with the Tigers rise back into the top 30, and the Tigers will be favored in this one.  They need to be careful, because W&L has the goods to beat them on a given day.  This is one of the key matches for the Tigers to stay in the top 30.

The Tigers will finish the year with the SAA championships and then eventually NCAAs, assuming they win.  Sewanee has the chance to be put in many different regions for NCAAs.  They historically have been put in Wash U or Emory’s, and I assume that will probably be the case this year.  Depending on their seeds, they should get a win in NCAAs once again.  To stay in the top 30, they need to beat W&L and Trinity CT.  Do those things, and a top 25 finish might be a goal that they can reach.

D3 Atlantic South’s 3 Keys to Sewanee’s Season

1. Take the Doubles Lead – Sewanee ABSOLUTELY needs to take doubles leads. Against ranked teams, they are basically throwing away the bottom two singles spots until I see some improvement. That leaves them with 4 spots to get points. You can see where I’m going here.  You go down 2-1, and you need all four of those positions.  I don’t see Sewanee doing that against any ranked teams, so it’s time for them to take doubles leads.  Roddy/Gray give them a stud at the top, but let’s see some of those other guys step up.
2. Jack Gray or BUST – There is so much pressure on Jack Gray this year for the Tigers. Not only is he entrenched at the #1 doubles spot, he plays the #4 singles spot in the lineup. The Tigers literally need those spots to stage big upsets or even stay close in matches.  Gray can’t fall victim to a bad freshman offseason (COLLEGE BROOOOO) or even mental lapses in close matches.  Sewanee’s schedule is set up so they only get a couple shots at ranked teams.  Lose one, and that defines your season.  Will the freshman stand up to the pressure?
3. Cali Dreamin’ – Again, Sewanee’s schedule is very limited this year. This makes their Spring Break so, so important. The matches against Chapman and Trinity CT will give Sewanee big wins that can keep them where they need to be.  If they lose those matches, they may be knocked down to a #4 seed in their region in the NCAA tournament.  What that means is that they’d play the #1 seed (likely Emory in that scenario), and they might not get the NCAA win they want every year.  See what I’m saying?

Conclusion

I’m sorry to all those Tiger fans out there that think this might be a very dreary preview, but such is life in the mid 20s and you have me writing for you.  I strive for the best, and I will not stop until my teams continue to improve.  Hey, if it provides you some bulletin board material, even better!  Tiger fans know that I am a big Sewanee fan and am rooting for the best.  But, I think this will be an average year for the Tigers, especially given how Coach Shackleford has set the schedule up.  At least they have a pretty damn good twitter presence!