I’m excited to officially be a part of the blog! You may remember me from the fantasy draft, and I guess I didn’t completely bomb it, since I was invited to contribute in a larger capacity. As an avid D3 Tennis fan, I’m excited to offer my insights. Since I’m new to the blog, I encourage you to follow me on twitter @d3tennisgreek. Feel free to e-mail me at d3tennisgreek@gmail.com as well. Enough about me; let’s find out more about Gustavus Adolphus, one of the central region’s top teams.
Head Coach: Tommy Valentini, 7th season
Location: St. Peter, Minnesota
Preseason ITA Ranking: 18
Preseason Power Ranking: 18
Twitter Handle: @GACMensTennis
Overview: I’m trying to figure out how to succinctly summarize Gustavus’ 2014-15 season. One phrase that comes to mind is “so close.” In many ways, the Gusties were so close to becoming one of the premier teams in D3 again. Consider the following: Out of Gustavus’ eight losses to D3 teams last year, four were by a final score of 5-4, to teams that were favored to beat them. The other four came to top 10 teams. However, another way of succinctly characterizing Gustavus’ past year is through the term “average.” Normally, average is not a good thing, but for the Gusties, it’s not all that bad. They rolled through their conference (as expected) and earned an automatic bid to the tourney. Their appearance in the NCAA tournament marked their 28th since 1983. Unfortunately, the Gusties bowed out in the round of 16 for the fourth straight year. It’s starting to sound like a broken record – Gustavus rolls through conference but can’t make it to the dance (the elite 8). Will this be the year the Gusties turn the “so close” matches into victories? Can they finally make the elite 8? Will Tommy Valentini further his credentials (he already has a PhD) by winning a Nobel Prize? Let’s break it down:
Key Losses: Motasem Al-Houni (No. 2 Singles/No. 1 Doubles), Brad Entwistle (No. 4 Singles/No. 2 Doubles)
Additions: Chase Johnson, Colin Sandgren, Alex Senjem, Can-Aras Thierhoff, Alex Whaling
Lineup Analysis
#1 Singles: Mohanad Al-Houni (So.) – The younger and only Al-Houni on the roster now that Motasem graduated had just about as good of a freshman campaign as you could ask for. He quickly moved up the ranks from No. 3 singles to No. 1 and proved himself as a heavyweight at the top spot. I’m sure he would’ve liked to have finished his season on a higher note, since he lost 0 and 1 in the first round of the national singles championships, but make no mistake about it: Al-Houni is not only heavyweight now, but he could be one of the top 10 singles players in the country. This fall, he took fourth at ITA Nationals, defeating Carnegie star Abhishek Alla in the first round, before falling to Noah Farrell and Skyler Butts (who I argue to be the top 2 players in the country), respectively. Mohanad can win any match on the schedule this year. As I mentioned in my fantasy draft analysis, you can’t rely on a point every match from the top singles spot because it is just too competitive. But, if Gustavus wants to turn the corner, the sophomore needs to basically do just that.
#2 Singles: Andres Saenz (Jr.) – A beast in doubles, Saenz isn’t as well-known in singles. Last season, he was hot at the No. 4 spot, going 6-2, before being promoted to No. 3. Unfortunately, Saenz didn’t see the same success after the promotion. He went 0-4 against top 20 teams, so asking him to move to No. 2 is a little worrisome. The junior did what was expected of him this fall, losing to Whitewater’s No. 1 Jake Humphreys 6-4, 6-1 in the quarters of ITAs. I think his spring will be much like his fall. He will win matches against lower ranked opponents, but with the talent of the top No. 2s in the country, defeating top 20 teams will be tough.
#3 Singles: Zach Ekstein (So.) – Ekstein had a better seed than Elofson at ITAs, which is why I’m projecting him at No. 3, but I could see him and Elofson switching spots. As a freshman, Ekstein held his own at No. 6, going 11-4. All his losses came at the hands of top 20 teams, and he had a couple solid wins in there as well. The transition from freshman to sophomore year is a big one, and Ekstein could make big strides this season. He did quite well at ITAs, reaching the semis before falling to top dog Mohanad. On paper, Ekstein won’t be favored to win most matches against ranked opponents, but I’m confident in Coach Valentini’s abilities to make the sophomore a good No. 3. However, I’d be much more confident if he were placed at the No. 4 spot.
#4 Singles: Mitch Elofson (Sr.) – Despite being a senior, Elofson didn’t see much court time until last season. He mainly held the 5 spot and went 9-7 at it. I’m going to sound like I’m repeating myself, but Elofson struggled against top 20 teams, going 0-7. So, all his wins came against teams outside the top 20. There isn’t too much to say about his fall campaign because he lost to Coe stud Brady Anderson in the round of 16 at ITAs. Elofson is the lone senior that is projected to start, and I expect a big leadership role from him, especially given the losses of the elder Al-Houni and Entwistle to graduation.
#5 Singles: Tommy Entwistle (So.) – The No. 5 and 6 spots are going to be the most inexperienced for the Gusties. As a freshman, the younger Entwistle didn’t play in any matches against ranked teams. However, he showed he could play with the best after losing 15-13 in a tiebreak at ITAs this fall to UW-Whitewater’s solid junior Rithwik Raman. So, despite his inexperience, I think Entwistle is primed to pull off some upsets. Plus, there is that freshman to sophomore leap which I mentioned earlier.
#6 Singles: T. Connor Shives (So.) – As is the case with many teams, the No. 6 spot is the toughest to analyze. While Shives is projected to begin the season at 6 given his ITA seed, I can see this spot rotating between David Hagberg, a freshman, and Shives. Much like Entwistle, the sophomore did not see too much court time in singles last year, but he did play against Carnegie Mellon. Shives fell in the round of 16 to D-I transfer Grant Thompson at ITAs this fall. Matches against higher-ranked opponents this season will be good for Shives’ future.
Doubles — The Gusties are traditionally a red hot double team. Last year, they swept Case and had 2-1 leads over Carnegie and Chicago (the latter twice). If this team were to pull off any upsets, it would need to sweep doubles. Fortunately, Gustavus’ inexperience in singles doesn’t translate to doubles, and it returns a strong core. Saenz comes back to the top spot after a round of 16 finish at Nats and will play with Mohanad. It’s worthy to mention that the two were barely bested by the top Whitewater pair in an epic third set tiebreak at the finals of the ITA regional. Ekstein and Entwistle also fell to the top Whitewater team in the semis of ITAs. While the projected No. 3 pair of Elofson and Hagberg fell in the first round, I’m confident that Coach Valentini will figure out the right combination that will dominate much like the past. I was actually a little surprised he didn’t pair Elofson with Shives, given their success at No. 3 all last season. Nevertheless, watch out for the Gusties in doubles. Top to bottom, they’re good.
Schedule Analysis
https://gustavus.edu/athletics/mt/schedule/
What I like most about Gustavus’ schedule is that it eases them into the season. They shouldn’t lose any D3 match throughout their first month of action. In fact, February features five conference foes for the Gusties, and given the success of Gustavus in MIAC play, I don’t see any of these teams threatening to dethrone the kings. The Gusties are also in a good spot this year not hosting, therefore not being a part of, D3 Indoors. Unfortunately, they just don’t stack up to the rest of the field.
The first test comes in March when Gustavus plays a surging UW-Whitewater. I caught their regional semifinal match last year, and it was much closer than the final score indicated. D3Central gives the edge to the Gusties, as he should. Personally, I think this is going to be a nail biter and will give us a glimpse into what type of season to expect. Unlike D3Central, I’m giving the edge to Whitewater. The next day features DePauw, a team that Gustavus should handle but can’t sleep on.
While the Whitewater match will tell us if Gustavus is a top 20 team, the showdown against Pomona-Pitzer on March 11th will depict if the Gusties have turned the corner. Unfortunately, Gustavus doesn’t have the same strength it did last year, so Pomona should handle them. The same goes for Trinity, Wash U, and Chicago.
Another match to circle on the schedule is UT-Tyler. Gustavus is expected to win; however, keep in mind that in the previous two days they would have played three matches (Trinity, Wash U, and Texas Lutheran). Will they have enough after those long two days to defeat UT-Tyler? The Patriots would not have played any matches in the previous week.
I don’t expect the Gusties to lose any conference matches, so they should easily receive the automatic bid. However, much like the past, it will be difficult to make it through the round of 16.
Conclusion
Let’s revisit the questions I posed in the introduction. “Will this be the year the Gusties turn the “so close” matches into victories?” Unfortunately, no. As the gap and talent between the top 5-10 teams and everyone else continues to increase, I don’t see the Gusties pulling off any upsets. “Can they finally make the elite 8?” Unfortunately, no. Depending on their draw, the Gusties could actually be in danger of losing in the regional semifinal. I hope they don’t because I have the utmost respect for them, but Gustavus is a very young team, so I don’t have high expectations. “Will Tommy Valentini further his credentials (he already has a PhD) by winning a Nobel Prize?” Coach Valentini is one of my favorite coaches. I absolutely love his demeanor on the court. Last year, I caught a match where a player was complaining (to the chair ump, I think). It wasn’t bad…the player was just a little frustrated, but Coach Valentini immediately put an end to it. I really respect his authority. At the very least, he should be in the running for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Well, that was really fun to write. Again, I’m excited to be a part of the blog. Never hesitate to reach out with any questions or comments!