NCAA Finals Preview! CMS vs. Middlebury

Well, well, well. Here we are, on the night before the Finals, writing up a preview for you all. I’d like to again say thank you to all those that have commented on the feedback column with some great suggestions as well as a lot of praise.  It means a lot to us (especially me) that you all took the time to comment and I hope that the blog continues to grow and exceed your expectations year after year. Anyways, we have one more match tomorrow that features the only teams left standing, CMS and Middlebury.  One of them expected to make it here (that would be CMS) and the other team was more of a question mark throughout the season.  Such is life in the current DIII, where there is one dominating team and a bunch of other really good teams.  Middlebury happened to get here so congratulations to them already.

For this finals preview, D3NE and I will be joining forces again to preview just one match.  I got a bit sleepy there at the end yesterday but I was able to predict the matches fairly correctly.  My grammar was a bit off though, so I will make sure to be on point for this match.  Good thing I am starting off.  Anyways, I’m going to give you some topline thoughts on what’s going on with this CMS/Middlebury match.  Let’s get into some questions first before I let D3NE do his thing (whatever that means).  Gotta love that towel-whipping humor! Ha! Kidding Andy!

Will fatigue play a factor?

We are blessed to have two teams in the final that should actually be fairly fresh compared to what teams are normally looking like in this match.  I love seeing teams at full strength and there have been no fitness issues for either of these teams throughout the tournament, something that you don’t always see.  Middlebury and CMS have both not been pushed.  Even when they do lose a spot, it’s normally in straight sets which actually ends up being good for them in this Finals vacuum.  Now, fatigue almost always plays a factor, but it will be much less than past finals.  None of these guys have had a super tough three setter yet and the weather in Mason, Ohio has been fairly cool compared to other sites.  I don’t expect to see extreme fatigue come into play (such as David Liu’s match today against Middlebury) but if matches go long, then we could see some impact.

What about team composition?

Well, we’ve always made a big deal about how senior-heavy a team is when we talk about the results that we expect.  This year has been an anomaly in terms of who’s been winning, actually.  With the rise of Chicago and their freshman heavy team, the stats on how the different classes are doing are probably a little off (I don’t have all the time to check right now but can if I do get the time). However, years of data tell us that seniors will usually come through in clutch situations.  Deepak Sabada came back from a huge deficit today in the second set against Midd with the match on the line. We saw last year that seniors rule all.  I expect that to be the case this year with CMS and their senior heavy team.  Middlebury is actually a sneaky young team and despite their stigma, they are still a bit inexperienced at this stage in the game.  They obviously have one of the best head coaches in the game (look at the improvement every year) but CMS has 3 seniors at the top of the lineup.  This will make a big difference if it comes to close matches.

Will coaching play a part?

As the Guru pointed out in the comments of the feedback article (for god knows what reason he didn’t post a new article), the Hansen/Settles battle has been well documented since Hansen’s time at Cruz.  Settles has been getting the best of Hansen since he moved over to the East Coast, but this has been Coach Hansen’s best year.  In terms of recent experience, Settles is actually the more experienced coach.  However, we know Hansen’s legacy.  Which coach can get his players to play on the biggest stage? My bet is on Settles as he has been in the past 3 championships now.

What is something that you think can rattle CMS?

It has to be either of the top two doubles spots.  If Middlebury gets a big lead on one of the top 2 doubles spots, this could spell trouble for CMS.  The #3 team has struggled this quarterfinal and they will already be lacking some of the confidence they brought to Ohio.  That puts a lot of pressure on the #2 team against Smolyar and Farrell, who I think have really come into their own recently.  Not saying that a sweep is something I’d expect, but a 2-1 lead for Middlebury starts to let some doubts creep in, and that’s the last thing we want for this CMS team.  The results these two days have been eerily similar to last year and that makes me feel uncomfortable.  Dorn and Marino were losing today (Dorn lost) and Butts the day before.  Again, any given day.  Hansen has coached some of the greatest pickup match teams we’ve seen.  That’s what this is, a pick up match.

Who are you rooting for?!

I don’t normally truly root for a team (who am I kidding yes I do) but I must say that I’m really pulling for the Stags tomorrow. I think they have been through a lot given the expectations of the past three years and they have taken a lot of heat from a lot of people, including us (cough, the guru, cough).  This is a team that needed to develop their mental games to win a championship.  I think they are ready and this may be their best opportunity in a long time, especially with the rise of a finally competent Chicago team.  CMS gets a lot of “haters” because they have been so good for the past three years and live in sunny California, but there are a lot of quality guys on this team and we NEVER hear any complaints about them.  Coach Settles is a great guy from my interactions with him and it’s nice to see some first time winners.

Okay, I’ll turn it over to NE now so he can do the boring stuff. As in, the stuff that everyone loved in the feedback column – match by match analysis! Have fun boys.

D3NE: In a bit of a role reversal from yesterday, D3AS gets the fun part of the preview, and I’m taking the match by match breakdown. Before we get into the nitty gritty stuff, I just want to reiterate that tomorrow will be the 3RD STRAIGHT YEAR that CMS has taken an undefeated DIII season into the NCAA tournament, earned the #1 seed overall seed, advanced from the region of death, made the finals, and will be matched up with NESCAC team playing the role of underdog. However, there are a few main differences between this year and the past couple of years. This year’s Midd team is not senior-laden like Williams and Amherst were. In fact, Midd’s only senior starters are Heidrich and Frost in the doubles lineup. While this means good things for Middlebury’s future, it does not bode well for tomorrow. On the flippity flip side, this 2015 CMS team actually has the wealth of experience and seniors. For Wood, Marino, and Dorn, tomorrow is the last team hurrah. The deck of NCAA intangibles that has somehow been stacked against the Stags in past finals, seems to be tilted the way of So Cal. That being said, there’s more at stake than a national championship here. If Middlebury does somehow pull off the upset, this stretch of CMS teams would unquestionably go down as the best/most talented/whatever you want to call it team to never win an NCAA tournament. Nobody wants to be remembered for something like that. Luckily for CMS, the matchup by matchup preview also tilts in their favor.

#1 Doubles: Wood/Dorn (CMS) vs. Heidrich/Campbell (Midd). How good have Wood/Dorn looked as a doubles team over the past couple of days? First of all, the black uniforms are sick. Secondly, I don’t think any team in DIII returns better than Wood and Dorn. That’s not to say they don’t serve well, let me assure you that they do, but the crisp returns from both sides are just a thing of beauty. Heidrich and Campbell are coming off a loss to Chicago’s #1 team. Campbell summed up his feelings nicely by chucking his hat when the match ended. I have a feeling we could be in for some more hat tosses tomorrow. CMS 8-4

#2 Doubles: Butts/Morkovine (CMS) vs. Smolyar/Farrell (Midd). Other than #1 doubles, I don’t think that CMS has a huge advantage in the doubles. Butts and Mork looked much better today vs. Wash U, but Smolyar and Farrell make for quite the scrappy team. Both guys and rip, and both guys are willing to run everything down. In order for Midd to have a shot at the title, this is likely a match they will need to win. CMS 9-8 (3)

#3 Doubles: Hull/Marino (CMS) vs. Frost/De Quant (Midd). Hull and Marino are yet to win a doubles match in Mason. They lost to Hop on Monday and Wash U today, and will undoubtedly come out chomping at the bit tomorrow. That being said, both of these guys are better singles players than doubles players. Frost, well he seems to be merely a doubles specialist. He and De Quant have not lost in Mason, and just like their teammates at #2, are crucial to any shot of a Midd upset. While a doubles sweep certainly is possible, I don’t see it. 2nd and 3rd dubs are both close, and Hansen is a double magician. Gimme Midd 8-6.

#1 Singles: Warren Wood (CMS) vs. Ari Smolyar (Midd). This was a fun match to watch earlier in the season. Smolyar came out firing, but Wood brought his game to another level and smoked Ari in the 2nd and 3rd sets. While Wood didn’t look invincible today, I’ve been told his game is on another level right now. In fact, I’ve heard from multiple people that Wood is playing inspired tennis. To quote the great Pepper Brooks, Wood and his team “really want to win this one.” Smolyar looked much more at home in the 2nd set vs. Chua, but I’ve gotta go with the death stick that is Warren Wood (seriously, the kid is thinner than D3Regional’s towel snapping game). Smolyar is one of the best players in the country, but he’s going up against the best, and the best is peaking. CMS, 6-3, 6-3.

#2 Singles: Skylar Butts (CMS) vs. Noah Farrell (Midd). One of the guys who impressed me today was Noah Farrell. Little Speedy Gonzales on the court, but the dude can absolutely rip a forehand. Butts was also impressive today, rebounding from a tough (and shocking) loss to Hwang to take down Putterman and clinch the Stag’s win. If Skyler starts slow again tomorrow, Farrell might be able to do some damage. Noah actually won the first set (6-0) the first time these two played, but Butts came back to win the match. This is a spot that Midd could win if the cards fell perfectly, but my guess is that it remains unfinished. CMS leads, 6-4, 3-3

#3 Singles: Nik Marino (CMS) vs. Palmer Campbell (Midd). Dante Quazzo will certainly be excited to watch this one. Two of the best #3’s in the country doing battle. Campbell already beat Marino once this season, and Nik has had to battle some of his own NCAA demons. Marino lost to Tanner Brown and Michael Solimano in last year’s NCAA Tournament, and today was down a set to Jeremy Bush when the match was called. Campbell lost his quarterfinal match vs. Jordan Mayer (Trinity Tx), and looked like he was going to rebound with a big first set win over Deepak today. However, Chicago’s lone senior fought back to take the second set just before Midd clinched the match. This is another match that will likely go unfinished, but if Midd takes a lead after dubs look for Palmer to be a guy with a good chance to take down a singles point. CMS leads, 7-5, 2-3.

#4 Singles: Joe Dorn (CMS) vs. Jackson Frons (Midd). Jackson Frons was a hairy beast today. He bucked expectations and took down Peter Leung in straight sets. Although things got a bit dicey at the end, Frons hung on for one of (if not by far) his best win of the season. ON the other side, Dorn was the mirror opposite. Kratky got off to a fast start and never looked back, taking down Joey D in straights. Frons hasn’t excited me this year, and I’m not going to jump onto the bandwagon after one match. That being said, Dorn has looked more than beatable so far this tournament, also playing a tough match with Reiter in the quarterfinals. CMS, 6-4, 6-2.

#5 Singles: Daniel Morkovine (CMS) vs. William De Quant (Midd). If this match finishes, then we might have a classic on our hands. So far this week, and for the majority of the season, Morkovine has been one of the last guys out on the court. It’s easy to win quickly when you’re playing a team with no depth but in the NCAA finals there are no gimmes. Plus, De Quant is the furthest thing from a gimme. After beating Niess on Monday, De Quant took down Tsai today in straight sets. Those are two great wins, and De Quant must be playing some of the best tennis of his life. There will likely be some pre match jitters for Mork, as he was the one pulled from last year’s Finals. This is almost certainly a match that will not finish, and it’s yet another that Midd will need to win if they are to shock the world. Midd leads, 7-5, 2-4

#6 Singles: Glen Hull (CMS) vs. Kyle Schlanger (Midd). Has any singles player been more impressive than Glen Hull so far. He dismantled Tanner Brown (rumor on the blogging street is that Tanner vommed multiple times during that match) on Monday, and just beat the snot out of Haugen today. UTR loves Hull, he’s and ITA winner, and even though Schlanger looked like a much better start than Mountifield, he has quite the uphill battle ahead of him. CMS, 6-2, 6-1.

It kills me to pick so strongly against my region, but I really think this CMS team has just brought their game to a different level this year. Midd, I hope you take it as bulletin board material. I would LOVE to be proven wrong tomorrow. My totals add up to a 5-1 CMS win, but I’m cynical like that. I will talk more about this in my season ending article, but Midd has already surpassed expectations. From here on out, it’s all gravy. That being said, gravy tends to taste better when served with a heaping side of trophy. Enjoy the Finals!