NCAA Championships: Middlebury Region

WHAT?! A second preview in less than 24 hours? First of all, that’s just how The Blog rolls during NCAA times. Secondly, D3Central wrote 3 previews in about 5 hours.

If only we could all just be like old-man D3Central. Ah the early bird special, life would be so much simpler.  Anyways, I gave a little preview of the Amherst NCAA Regional last night, and now it’s time to take a gander at the other NCAA Regional held in the NE. If Amherst is the NE’s top dog, Middlebury is nipping at their heels. Both teams have won a couple of NESCAC tournaments and at least one NCAA Championship in the past 5 years, and both teams are legitimate threats to win it all again this year. However, as much as I love Stevens, Bowdoin is a MUCH tougher #2 seed, and I see their matchup with Midd being one of the best Sweet 16 matches that we’ll see. Both will have matches in order to set that up; but, if we do get the highly anticipated rematch, I’ll see what I can do about doing a more in-depth match by match preview. For now, enjoy the broader preview.

Top Dog: Middlebury. The Guru listed Bowdoin in his “unluckiest” teams, but I think Midd fits that category too. They just won NESCACs, and are supposed to be the 3rd best team in the country. How are they rewarded? They get the best #2 seed in the whole bracket, who just recently pushed them to the brink. If they get past Bowdoin, the Panthers will likely take on The Indoor Champs and 2014 Final Four team in Trinity Tx who should be well rested at this point in their season. If they can squeak by the Tigers, they get their old friends, Amherst, in the semis, who beat Midd 9-0 in their only meeting this year. If they get somehow exact revenge on their rivals, they will likely have to take down CMS in the finals. Now, no NCAA Tournament run is simple, but that hardly seems like an easy draw. All that being said, I still expect Midd to get out of this region and make a run similar to last years. The Panthers play good doubles, have strength at the top with Smolyar and Campbell, and even have developed a spot of depth with De Quant at #5. Their matchup with Bowdoin will come down to dubs. If Midd sweeps like their first matchup, I don’t see Bowdoin even making it interesting, but if Bowdoin can scratch out just one point, this one could shape up to be another classic. Midd/Bowdoin would be my most anticipated Sweet 16 match (sorry Hopkins/Kenyon), and would make me consider driving back out to Vermont.

They Believe That They Will Win: Bowdoin. After gong back and watching a few USMNT pump up videos, I’m hyped to write this section. While there are very few moral victories at this stage of the game, Bowdoin’s loss at Midd in the semis of NESCACs last weekend certainly has a lot of positive take aways. Check out that box score, vs. the box score from the first time these two teams played. While the 8-1 result was closer than the score indicated (Midd won all 3 supers), another key factor is the return of Chase Savage. Bowdoin’s lil guy had missed a significant chunk of the regular season, but when he play’s, Bowdoin’s chances of taking #4 are as golden as his hair. Pushing Tercek down to #5 is another plus for the Polar Bears, and Bowdoin should have more than a puncher’s chance to take #4-6 singles. They might even be favored at each of the three spots. I’ve been saying it for the whole year, Bowdoin’s depth is as good as anyones. In fact, I’d like to take a quick moment to pat myself on the back for picking Bowdoin to finish 3rd in the NESCAC this year. Good job, me. However, there is still one glaring hole in the Polar Bear’s game, their doubles. Tercek/Trinka are 7-11 on the year at #1 dubs and are 0-2 vs Heidrich and Campbell. Since switching to #2 doubles, Roddy/Wolstencroft are 8-4, however two of those four losses came to Midd, and neither match was closer than 8-5. Bowdoin’s #3 split with Midd, and you can see what a difference that one doubles point made. If Bowdoin is going to pull off the upset and make the Quarterfinals, they’ll need AT LEAST one doubles point. I think they get it, and this match stays close, but I’m not sure the young guns have what it takes to win the biggest match of their careers, in front of a rowdy crowd at Midd. Let’s hope for a classic!

Pool-B Sleeper-ish: MIT. Sorry Engineer fans, I don’t think you have any shot against Bowdoin. If the BlackSwan suddenly gains another match of eligibility, well, at least it would be closer. That being said, Bowdoin can’t completely look past MIT. They are a streaky team with a lot of talent, and Bowdoin does play some mediocre doubles. I don’t see Bowdoin being over confident here, as it will be their first NCAA match. It’s certainly possible for MIT to take a doubles point, or even two, but Bowdoin’s #3’s should be too tough no matter what. After that, Bowdoin’s depth will be too much for MIT. Congrats to the Engineers on yet another NEWMAC Tournament Championship, and for avenging their early season loss to Babson in the process.

We’re Just Happy to Be Here: Ramapo/Nichols/Hunter: Congrats to the Roadrunners, Bison, and Hawks, who won the GNAC, CCC, and CUNYAC respectively. None of these teams will be able to take down Middlebury or Bowdoin, and even though Hunter beat Yeshiva 5-4 earlier this year, they are BIG TIME underdogs vs. MIT in the first round. Shout out to Brandon Roode from Nichols who is 17-0 in his senior spring. The fall loss to Victor Vu is keeping him out of NCAAs, but the senior has a chance to go out in style, by getting a 3rd NCAA tournament win in four years. Hats off to the man who can rock a sleeveless shirt and headband.

Predictions:

1ST ROUND: #3 MIT def. #6 Hunter, 5-0 (But Hunter beat Yeshiva???)

1ST ROUND: #5 Nichols def. #4 Ramapo, 5-1 (Why you gotta be so Roode?)

2ND ROUND: #1 Middlebury def. #5 Nichols, 5-0 (does this mean they’re better than 2013 Williams?)

2ND ROUND: #2 Bowdoin def. #3 MIT, 5-1 (Bowdoin can’t sweep dubs, can they?)

SWEET 16: #1 Middlebury def. #2 Bowdoin, 5-2 (with Bowdoin leading the two unfinished matches).