Men’s NCAA Preview: Q&A

I wrote this exact same article in 2012 and I’m bringing back the format for what will hopefully be a memorable 2015 NCAA tournament.

10) What about the bracket initially pops out?
Two things I’d like to touch on. The first is how accurate the bracketologies were over the last weeks. Every region in the actual bracket was shown in one of our scenarios at some point. Kudos to the committee this year for not throwing us any curveballs. I think this bracket is extremely fair and given restrictions it is well-balanced as well. In my seven years of doing bracketology, this is the best I’ve ever done when it comes to predictions. Either the blog is gaining influence over the committee or we are getting better with our predictions through experience.

The second thing is three potential quarterfinal matches that I would categorize as “awesome.” Those would be the rock solid Amherst team against upstart Chicago, the best rivalry in D3 with Emory playing Wash U and a rematch of last year’s outstanding 3rd place match with Midd vs. Trinity. I consider all of these matches close to coin flips and we could have a potentially epic opening day of the Final 8.

9) What is the most intriguing regional?
I love the potential Kenyon-Hopkins match for so many reasons. These two teams could not be more different. In one corner, you have the underachieving Hopkins squad who had national title aspirations headed into this season and proceeded to fall out of the top 15. Their lineup is full of top recruits and they have a strong core of seniors who are looking for their 3rd Final 8 in 4 years. Hop ended last season on a high note giving CMS all they could handle in a great quarterfinal. Kenyon ended last season in a tailspin and we did not know expect from the Lords headed into this season. Most were projecting the Lords somewhere between 12-15 and after a very good Indoors, they have cemented their place in the top 10. They have great leadership and the self-proclaimed best #benchmob in the country which will be out in full force for regionals. Hopkins is a team that I would consider “mentally weak” right now and Kenyon is the exact opposite of that. The results from this season don’t really indicate it, but I expect this to be a very close match. See this for the last time Hopkins traveled to Gambier. I’m sure MVP won’t let anything like that happen this year.

8) What is the most interesting statistic?
This comes from the Mary Washington regional and we have to rewind 7 years to 2008, the first year of the blog. In 2008, Mary Washington hosted a regional with Trinity (TX) as the #1 seed. 2008 happened to be the last year Trinity (TX) hit the #1 ranking in the country prior to their Indoors win this season. 2008 was also the last time Mary Washington went to the Elite 8 and one can deduce that they upset Trinity at home in the regional. The Eagles were down 4-1 in the Sweet 16 to W&L, came back to win and the next day beat Trinity in an epic 5-4 match. I have scoured the internet for that box score and cannot find it, but I’m sure Coach McMindes remembers this match well. In the quarterfinals Mary Washington ended up getting crushed by…you guessed it…Middlebury – who would be their likely opponent this time around as well.

As a secondary statistic, shoutout to the Emory Eagles who are looking for their 17th consecutive Elite 8 appearance. This is the longest streak in D3 by quite a bit.

7) Who are the 3 unluckiest teams?
Pomona-Pitzer, Bowdoin and Emory.

I’m sure everyone is writing off Pomona-Pitzer and for good reason. Even though the Hens have gone up 2-1 against CMS twice in a row, it just doesn’t seem like the strength in singles is there. It’s unfortunate they have to play CMS in regionals, but my hat goes off to these guys for having one of the best months of tennis I’ve ever seen. Their 4-5 week stretch in which they went 14-1 against ranked teams was something I’m not sure if I’ve seen before. This is a terrible draw for them but their amazing regular season will not be forgotten.

Even though Bowdoin ended up making the tournament, they really have a tough draw playing at Middlebury. I’ll touch on this match in a few questions from now, but we had scenarios where Bowdoin hosted Trinity or met Kenyon. Both of those would be preferable to playing at Midd.

I chose Emory for two reasons. Usually this team seems to get a lot of breaks, but I don’t think that’s the case this year. They could have hosted a regional but instead need to travel 8 hours. If they get out of that, they likely play their biggest rival Wash U in what should be an absolute war if the UAA final was any indication. Then, they have to take on CMS and if they somehow get past that, they could have to play Amherst, the team that’s beaten them 4 of the past 5 years in NCAAs. That is a brutal road to a national title.

6) Who are the 3 luckiest teams?
Johns Hopkins, Trinity (TX) and Whitman.

I am somewhat struggling here because I don’t think anyone got exceptionally lucky. For Hopkins, after a disastrous season, they draw the lowest #1 seed and have an opportunity to make the quarters for the 3rd time in 4 years. Things could have been quite a bit harder as they ducked potential #1 seeds such as Midd, Trinity and Emory. They also have a pretty easy round of 32 match.

I like Trinity’s draw because they play a team who shouldn’t really threaten them. You generally know what you are going to get from UMW and I expect a routine 5-2. Looking to the quarters, despite the fact that Midd beat Emory this season, I’d rather play Midd. Trinity knows what to expect after last year’s 3rd place match and if I’m the Tigers, I’m very happy to see Midd in my quarter as opposed to Emory or even Wash U.

Whitman could have been flown to Emory or potentially even shipped to the California region. Instead they find themselves in a familiar place for NCAAs. They have a nice round of 32 match against Sewanee and then get a crack at Wash U who has been a little shaky for the majority of this season. Whitman hasn’t really been tested in about 6-7 weeks so they should come in pretty fresh.

5) Is there a sleeper no one is thinking about who can make the Final 8?
The first team that pops into my mind is Gustavus and the second is Bowdoin.

GAC played Chicago a few weeks ago and was a tiebreak away from sweeping doubles in what ended up being a 5-4 loss. A lot of people think Chicago turned a corner with their strong UAA performance, but GAC has great senior leadership from Al-Houni and Entwistle and they are dangerous in doubles. No one on this Chicago team has ever played in the NCAA tournament so we don’t really know what to expect from them if doubles gets tight. I think Gustavus is dangerous because they are such a strong doubles team who will be playing a pretty inexperienced group.

While I don’t think Bowdoin will win, they did just play Midd very tough 2 days ago. I assume most people are overlooking them and penciling in Midd to the quarters, but if the Polar Bears can get ahead in doubles, they can win this match. They did not have a great NESCAC regular season, but their singles early in the year was top 5 quality so we know the ability is there.

4) Which #1 seed is most likely to be upset in a regional?
In my opinion, all of the #1 seeds are pretty heavy favorites, but the answer to this question is Kenyon. I think all of the other top seeds are just much better or more disciplined than their opponents. There is no debating Hopkins’ season has been a trainwreck, but I can’t get over the fact that the talent is there and on paper, Hopkins should win this match. I still think the Jays pose the biggest threat to their #1 seed.

3) Which 5-8 seed is most likely to make the Final 4?
I am picking Trinity (TX) over Midd in the quarterfinals, so that’s my answer to this question. I think Wash U has a great chance to beat Emory as well. The Bears nearly knocked off the Eagles without Jeremy Bush in singles, so if he is in and healthy I think that’s a 50/50 match. Chicago certainly has the talent to beat Amherst if the Maroons make the quarters, but I’m not sure if the maturity and discipline is there yet. Trinity is a very experienced group that should be confident after an Indoors title and 3rd place last year which included a win over a stronger Midd team. If that match ends up happening, I really like the Tigers.

2) How many teams can realistically win the tournament?
While CMS is the heavy favorite and wins this tournament 8 out of 10 times, I believe there are 5 other teams who have enough firepower to win it all. I’ll go from least likely to most likely.

#5 is Wash U, who has the strong base that they normally have and had a solid showing at UAAs. They have had a down year by their standards and got walloped by the Stags early in the season, but if they get hot in doubles, they have the depth to carry them all the way.

#4 is Middlebury, who gave CMS their biggest threat of the season outside of P-P and also knocked off an Emory team that is tough as nails. They have some question marks when it comes to their depth and they would also probably have to get through an Amherst team that beat them 9-0 a week ago.

#3 is Trinity TX who has been fairly quiet the last 6 weeks. They obviously had a very strong Indoors showing and historically they have been a much stronger team in NCAAs than at Indoors. Trinity plays great doubles and has the 1-2 punch to make a deep run.

#2 is Emory which has great senior leadership and battles as hard as anyone. If their doubles can hold up over 3 days and Wagner can get wins at #4, they are a threat to win it. The problem for Emory is their incredibly tough road that would possibly consist of Wash U, CMS and then an Amherst team that’s owned them recently.

The most likely challenger to CMS is Amherst. Despite the recent Williams loss, the Jeffs are the defending national champs and were crushing people the latter half of the season. Do not forget that they beat Middlebury 9-0 very recently, something CMS was far from doing. The Jeffs would probably have the mental edge in a final against the Stags.

Before people get on me for not including Pomona-Pitzer on this list, note that Yasgoor is done for the year and despite the bevy of 5-4 wins P-P had during the season, I think they lack the experience to beat teams like Kenyon, Emory and Amherst on consecutive days.

1) Who are my Final 16, 8, 4, 2 and 1?
Final 16: CMS, P-P, Kenyon, Hopkins, Emory, NCW, Wash U, Whitman, Middlebury, Bowdoin, Trinity TX, Mary Washington, Chicago, Gustavus, Amherst, Stevens
Final 8: CMS, Kenyon, Emory, Wash U, Middlebury, Trinity TX, Amherst, Chicago
Final 4: CMS, Emory, Trinity TX, Amherst
Final 2: CMS, Amherst
Champion: CMS