ASouth’s Ridiculously Dope UAA Preview (feat. D3Regional)

I’ve been thinking about this UAA preview for a few days trying to decide how I want to do this thing.  WIth a little bit of liquid imagination, I kinda have a view of how I want to do this thing.  I’m taking this one basically solo at this point, as Central has left me out to dry because he’s like sightseeing at the Grand Canyon or some crazy stuff, and Regional sent me an email about his predictions like I’m some type of organizer of some blog. I’ve gotten some requests to change things up a bit, from loved commenters and not so loved ones, so hey, I’ll change it up.  I want to give the right people recognition while also giving you guys the correct predictions that I like to see.  So, here’s what I’m going to do.  I’m going to free-style this UAA General Preview, leave the 1st round predictions to D3Regional, and then have D3Central take over for Day 2 and Day 3.

In this article, you can expect a lot of different things thrown into the mix.  I’ll try to hit on whatever comes to my mind.  Don’t expect too much “analysis and prediction” stuff from me, because I want to keep it semi-fun.  Yes, I know what fun means.  C’mon now.  I won’t outline this thang because surprises are cool unless you’re Kevin Spacey in Horrible Bosses 1 (don’t watch #2 it’s really bad).  Let’s do this thing.

The Implications

Given my Pool C expertise (it really isn’t expertise), I figured I had to hit on what this tournament could mean for each of the teams in the tournament.  Let me give you a general overview and then some team by team aspects.

With the loss by Bates to Tufts yesterday afternoon, the UAA tournament becomes even bigger.  Bates has essentially tried it’s best to play it’s way back out of the NCAA tournament.  I had previously thought that only the first 3 finishers in the UAA would make the NCAA.  Now, the 4th place team could possibly make it in if Bowdoin loses to either Williams, Trinity CT, or whoever is ranked lower than them the next couple of weeks.  With the way Bowdoin has been playing, don’t tell me that isn’t possible because I won’t believe you.  Even with this information, I can tell you this – the first place team and the second place team will make the NCAAs.  This is a guarantee.  The third place team, now with the Bates loss, probably has a 90% shot of getting in.  This bodes well for the top 3 seeds in the tournament.  The fourth place team probably  has around a 50% shot, depending on how much faith you have in Bowdoin’s late season play.These are your implications.  You can probably figure out that the winner will get a 4-6 overall seed, the 2nd place team will get a 6-8, and the third/fourth will get high 2 seeds.  Easy analogies here people, that’s why you give me the big bucks.

ASouth’s Team-by-Team

Emory – The #1 seed Emory is looking to validate their stance as one of the best teams in the country this tournament.  They’ve had an up and down season, don’t get me wrong.  Sometimes, some of their players call me out on twitter via direct message. Trash talk or no trash talk, this team is the favorite to win the whole thing because of one sentence.  They’ve been there.  That’s all I really have to say.

Wash U – Wash U is the team that has disappointed me most this year and I am not afraid to say it.  Liquid courage, my friends.  They have beaten some decent teams in Kenyon, etc, but have not pulled the big win and the consistency they are known for.  Is it because of their youth movement?  Potentially. yes. They still have a great coach and are probably the runner up favorite in the tournament.

Carnegie Mellon – There are two sleepers in this draw, and one of them is Carnegie.  This team has not put it together at the same time on the same day (other than against Hopkins).  That takes work.  This team is there and not there at the same time, you feel me?  The potential matchup with Wash U is going to be incredible in the semifinals and I hope they have live updates.  The ceiling is #1 for these guys, but the floor is #4.  It’s hard to ignore CMU’s history, so what will it be this time?

Case Western – I feel like the Spartans have gotten less of a following since some callouts on the blog about them, and they are currently losing to Rochester in the polls.  Sorry Ben, but Case should be ahead.  I don’t know what Todd is doing behind the scenes, but this team will be ready.  They have a legit 50/50 matchup against Chicago in the first round that I wish I could see on the live stream.  We shall see.

Chicago – For as much as we give them a hard time, Chicago has had a good year.  They have lost to no one outside the top 15. They have beaten Kenyon, they have beaten Gustavus, and they look to have turned a corner from their previous team chemistry. I am a believer in Chicago, I just think they need to grow up fast if  they want to sneak into the tournament like D3West believes they will do.

Brandeis – Ah, my thoughts on a Regional team.  Brandeis has done well this year to stay around the top 30.  But, I do have a challenge for them.  They’ve been close in first rounds before, but have never really made someone nervous.  Is this a team that can take the next step and make something close, or will they fold and end their season by hanging around Spring Fling or looking for jobs.  Yikes, who wants to do one of those things.

Rochester – Honestly, I don’t know much about Rochester.  They have some good wins and a blog favorite at the top of the singles lineup, but not much else.  I don’t see this team making much of a dent especially with the type of competition they are facing first round.

NYU – This team has fallen.  To go from a team that almost pulled an upset a few years ago to now what they are is a tough one.  I hope that they have been working this whole season for this type of opportunity, because it is a great way to showcase your talent to the junior recruiting classes.  I mean, we don’t partner with Tennis Recruiting for no reason!

Salute the Seniors of 2015

I figured this would also be a nice time to celebrate the seniors of 2015 because even with the amount of love we give seniors, it just isn’t enough. I’ll outline the seniors below and give a one/two line shoutout to all of them so everyone gets their time in the proverbial blog spotlight, which is more like the flashlight app on your iPhone6.  Not even the 6s.  Just the 6.

Alex Ruderman, Emory – Always been a fan of Ruderman and his game. Sad to see the grinder go, but I’m sure his last year will be a memorable one here at the UAA and in the NCAA.

Eric Halpern, Emory – The brash athlete of DIII tennis. He’s like your Richard Sherman. That’s all I really have to say.

Ian Wagner, Emory – Along with the top 2 guys, I’m glad Wagner was able to notch a championship under his belt. Despite ups and downs, Ian has been a lineup staple since his freshman year.

Parker Chang, Wash U – Despite no longer being in the starting lineup, I remember this kid being one of the most explosive players I’ve seen play.  Maybe we see him in doubles this weekend!

Kevin Chu, Wash U – Chu has improved from a guy who was barely playing his first two years to one of the best #6 players in the country.  Without Chu, where would Wash U be right now?

Ross Putterman, Wash U – From little Putt to Putt-Putt to the only Putt, Putterman has given us our fair share of memorable matches (and predictions of him at #1 singles) throughout the years.  Another player I am very sad to see go.

Eric Zishka, Wash U – If someone chooses you to impersonate in an Indoor Nationals youtube chat, that means you must have made it.

Christian Heaney-Secord, CMU – I’ll miss doing a coin flip in my room for whenever I had to predict a CHS match.  Those were the days.

Will Duncan, CMU – One of the most intense players I have seen play.  Injuries have derailed him a little throughout the years, but he’s here now.

Bryce Beisswanger, CMU – One of the only guys who has been a doubles specialist for his career. Doesn’t take the spotlight, but means just as much to the result of the team.

Will Drougas, Case Western – Too many times have I seen Drougas been counted out before proving that he should never be. Great career that has resulted in him being the winningest player in Case history (until CJ beats him…)

Bas Van Lent, Case Western – Never a lineup staple, but always has been a leader on the Case team and was one of the players that came on and started Case’s journey.  Also, a great name.

Ankur Bhargava, Chicago – One of the leaders on the Maroons, Bhargava has enjoyed an impactful career in the starting lineup through the good days and the bad days.

Deepak Sabada, Chicago – We talk so much about the young guys on Chicago, but where would they be without the play and leadership of Sabada? He’s seen it all in his career with Chi-city.

Michael Secular, Brandeis – Possibly the best hair in all of DIII tennis, and it’s not all that close. A gritty player who always causes problems for opponents.

Alec Siegel, Brandeis – Streaky. Don’t mess with Siegel when he is on fire. Shouts to one of the Deis captains.

Julian Danko, Rochester – One of the best Jackets on the team, Danko has been a key factor in getting Rochester on the map.  He will have big shoes that need to be replaced next year.

Billy Smithline, NYU – Another doubles specialist, Smithline is one of NYU’s seniors this year and their team captain. Fire up the boys one final time, Billy!

CJ Leong, NYU – Apologies to CJ for missing him the first go-round. A longtime reader of the blog and a generally nice kid, CJ has been a rock for the Violet.

Okay, that’s all for the seniors of the UAA.  Shoutout to all of you guys for creating great memories along the way. Hopefully, this last UAA is a memorable one. If you aren’t listed above, blame whoever runs your website, because I looked at those things.  Alright, what’s next?

10 Things to Watch

Before I hand it off to D3Regional for the first round matchups, I wanted to give you my thoughts on what I think will happen in the tournament, whether they be results based or just things I think you should look for.

1. There will be an upset in the tournament.  Last year, CMU upset Emory in the semifinals to reach the finals for the first time ever. This year, I think something of the same will happen again, whether it be Case/Chicago or CMU in the semis.  One of those teams is going to do it, I just don’t know which one.
2. There will be multiple candidates for match of the year. The UAA has become a place where the top 5 battle it out and are really evening out the level of play. Case/Chicago is going to be an incredible first round, and the semifinals are going to be amazing as well.
3. Seniors will lead the way. After the tournament (or during, the hell do I care), take a look at how the seniors on each team performed and if their team won the matches they did well in. Hint, it’s probably going to be correlated.
4. Watch out for CJ.  Krimbill has taken his lumps lately after being the best player in DIII for a good amount of time.  He can no longer claim that, but I expect a huge tournament for Krimbill, especially if Case is to win the first round and enter the big boy bracket.
5. Fitness will be a factor. Remember last year? In the finals, Wash U crushed CMU because the Tartans were not at full speed in the final.  I believe Alla sat out of the match and CMU was beaten up after a war with Emory.  In the finals this year, look for the fresher team (if there are any) to have the leg up in hot Altamonte Springs.
6. Don’t overlook the bottom. The bottom three teams (Deis, Rochester, NYU) all have something to play for.  Brandeis is around the top 30 and wants to stay there and Rochester and NYU want to get into the top 40. Don’t be surprised if Brandeis makes the 5th place match and gives whatever disappointed top 15 team that’s sitting there a huge challenge.
7. Live updates will be on point. Between the great twitters of CMU, Case, Rochester, NYU, and the UAA, as well as the proposed live updates from the UAA, we should be on point with live updates.  If there are any people at the site that could also provide live updates if needed, that would be pretty sweet.  I’m looking at you, Ben Shapiro.
8. Mornings will be early.  On the Sunday of the Men’s UAA, I believe that the teams will be playing at 9AM so the teams can get out of Florida to go to their less beautiful states of Missouri, Pennsylvania, etc.  Kidding. Either way, expect to be awake early on Sunday if you’re looking for some good tennis.
9. Rivalries will be born, continued, and re-kindled. The UAA has become so close nowadays that it is no longer a Wash U/Emory storyline every time out. While that is still the premiere rivalry in the UAA, check out the budding rivalries between Case/Chicago, Case/CMU, CMU/Emory, Wash U/Chicago, and more.  These teams don’t really like each other all that much and the volume will be high in Altamonte Springs.
10. Daily Previews/Recaps from the blog. Self-explanatory, you read that right.

Okay! That’s all the time I have for you today.  I’ll pass it off to Regional for his first round analysis, because I know some teams want that on-flight reading to get them through the day.  I hope you guys didn’t fly on Delta… yeesh.

D3Regional’s First Round Previews

#1 Emory vs. #8 NYU:

To be honest, I’m not sold on Emory as the #1 team in the UAA, but I am sold on NYU as the #8.  NYU is not a bad team by any stretch, but their schedule was just so short this year, with ten total matches, a record of 3-7, and losses to both Brandeis and Rochester.  With that lack of match play, there is no way the Violets are going to come into sunny Florida and shock a team that is as talented and used to the heat as Emory is.  NYU’s only real shot for wins are at #3 and #4 singles, where Ian Combemale and Sam Khoshbin (both freshmen) have had nice years, each with only a couple losses on the season.  However, they have not faced guys like Rafe Mosetick and Ian Wagner at these spots before, and realistically, I do not think they have much of a shot.  I’ll take Emory opening their tournament with a nice 9-0 win.

D3Central: Emory 9-0

D3ASouth: Emory 8-1 (Browning pulls someone after sweeping doubles)

#2 Wash U vs. #7 Rochester:

These two squads played out in Claremont back in March, and Wash U took a fairly routine 7-2 win while only starting half their singles lineup.  Since then, Rochester has struggled, losing to Chapman, TCNJ, and RPI, really just getting the one big win over NYU.  Rochester can play good doubles every once in a while, and they also can battle at the #2-4 singles spots, with Ben Shapiro, Jonny Baker, and Julian Danko.  Danko strikes a good ball and is probably Rochester’s best shot for an upset, although Tyler Kratky is a tough matchup.  Maybe Rochester can take one of the doubles matches, like they did back in March, but I’m going to go with Wash U 9-0.

D3Central: Wash U 8-1

D3ASouth: Wash U 8-1, Rochester gets dank with Danko.

#3 Carnegie Mellon vs. #6 Brandeis:

This is the only one of my regional team’s matches that I think my team has any shot in the world at taking.  That being said, if CMU plays their best, they should take the match fairly handily.  Brandeis has had some nice moments this year, defeating Chapman, MIT, Babson and most impressively, Tufts, but they have struggled on the road against top 30 teams, losing 9-0 to Wesleyan, 9-0 to Bowdoin, 7-2 to Trinity (CT), and 5-3 to Stevens among others.  CMU has improved their doubles over the course of the year, sweeping Mary Washington and Johns Hopkins in their past couple of matches, which does not bode well for Brandeis, a team that plays pretty good but very inconsistent doubles at #1 and #2.  I do expect some close matches in singles, likely at #2 (Michael Arguello of Deis vs. Chris Heaney-Secord of CMU), #3 (Danny Lubarsky of Deis vs. Will Duncan of CMU), and #5 (Ryan Bunis, Deis vs. Kenny Zheng, CMU).  I’ll take Arguello winning two matches, in doubles at #2 with Jeff Cherkin and in singles vs. Big Chris in a super breaker, but I think CMU wins the rest for a 7-2 victory.

D3Central: Carnegie 7-2

D3ASouth: CMU 8-1, I don’t think Arguello has the goods to take out two matches.

#4 Case Western vs. #5 Chicago:

ASouth: Given the huge implications from this match, Central will be doing a separate preview for this one that will be posted later tonight.  I didn’t want to make this post too long because D3NE doesn’t read past the third paragraph most of the time, and some of the readers don’t either.  This match is a true 50/50 in every sense of the world.  Will you go with the battle tested Case Western team that has always been there, or the young and talented Chicago team coming into their own? Trust Chicago? Or trust Coach Todd and the boys? It’s a tough decision. Let me know who wins in the comments.

D3ASouth: Case 5-4, I have no confidence in this choice and I am truly coin flipping.

D3Central: TBD (Check back tonight)

I can’t wait for D3Northeast to read this UAA preview and be like “Wow, I can’t do anything like this for the NESCAC preview.” Shoutout to everyone that’s supported me along the way and go Spurs.  ASouth, OUT.