Women’s Pool C!

I’m going to give my best attempt to follow in the big footsteps of @D3ASouth and write a Pool C article for the women’s side. First, let me set some background information regarding the Pools. There are three ways to qualify for the NCAA Team Championships. The first is through Pool A, which are the Automatic Qualifiers (Conference Champions) in conferences that have 7 or more teams. The second is through Pool B, which is for independents and schools from conferences with 6 teams or less. Currently there are just 15 Pool B schools, ZERO of which are even regionally ranked (how do you choose from that?????) And then there is the ultra competitive Pool C, which are the non-winners of the Conference Championships. In this article I’m going to talk mostly about the Pool C teams.

Here is the breakdown of Pools for this year:
49 team bracket
Pool A: 40 Conference Champions (AQ)
Pool B: 1 spot
Pool C: 8 spots

For those of you keeping track, Pool C for women has gone from 9 spots to 8 spots this year, which is a smaller hit than on the men’s side but still a significant hit given the competition for those spots. The Pool C spots tend to typically get taken up by the top 15 teams in the country, and this year it’s no different. Basically there are only a few conferences that have more than one team occupying spots in the ITA Top 40 National Rankings:
NESCAC – Williams (1), Amherst (3), Middlebury (8), Bowdoin (10), Wesleyan (17), Tufts (19), Trinity (33), Bates (39)
UAA – Emory (2), CMU (7), WashU (11), UChicago (15), Case (21), Brandeis (27)
SCIAC – CMS (4), Pomona (9), Redlands (18), LaVerne (24), Chapman (32)
NEWMAC – MIT (13), Wellesley (30), Babson (34)
NCAC – DePauw (14), Denison (25), Oberlin (35)
Liberty – Skidmore (16), Vassar (22), St. Lawrence (37)
CAC – Mary Washington (20), Christopher Newport (40)
NWC – Whitman (23), Lewis & Clark (29), Linfield (36)

And I make these assumptions about the conferences:
1. For NESCAC, UAA, and SCIAC, I make the assumption that the respective top ranked team (Williams, Emory, and CMS) will grab the Pool A spot by winning the Conference Championships. If they lose, they will probably only lose to the second ranked team in the conference, therefore safely trading a Pool A spot for a Pool C spot.
2. For the other conferences that haven’t played their conference championships yet (everyone except NEWMAC), Pool A is their only shot for a spot in NCAAs.

Here’s a rundown of teams, their chances, and what they can possibly do to get into the big dance:

These teams are basically a strong #2 in their respective conferences, and are not budging. >95% in:

Team: #3 Amherst
Notable Wins: #9 Pomona, #27 Chapman, #22 Vassar, #34 Babson, #27 Brandeis, #33 Trinity, #10 Bowdoin, #19 Tufts
Notable Losses: #1 Williams (fall)
Remaining Schedule: #1 Williams, #17 Wesleyan, #8 Middlebury, NESCACs
Verdict: After losing two-thirds of their starting lineup to graduation, I didn’t give Amherst much hope to regroup so fast this year but they have proven me very wrong. I see them finishing at least 3rd in the conference and an outside shot as conference champions if they have a great day and Williams falters.

Team: #9 Pomona
Notable Wins: #18 Redlands, #31 Trinity (TX), #10 Bowdoin, #22 Vassar, #15 Chicago, #13 MIT, #32 Chapman, #24 LaVerne
Notable Losses: #2 Emory, #7 CMU, #3 Amherst, #8 Middlebury, #4 CMS
Remaining Schedule: SCIACs
Verdict: Pomona had an influx of very talented freshmen and they’ve had a fairly good regular season. They’ve beaten everyone they need to beat in order to secure a Pool C spot and they haven’t had any losses against teams ranked below them. I don’t see them losing the the #3 SCIAC team (Redlands). I also don’t see them beating CMS in the SCIAC finals, so they will finish as solid runner-ups and comfortably secure a Pool C spot.

These teams also have a strong position in their respective conferences, and may move down a place but likely not enough to lose their Pool C spots. >80% in:

Team: #7 CMU
Notable Wins: #35 Oberlin, #5 W&L, #11 WashU, #9 Pomona, #12 Sewanee, #20 UMW
Notable Losses: #6 Hopkins, #4 CMS, #5 W&L #1 Williams
Remaining Schedule: UAAs
Verdict: Assuming that CMU goes into UAAs as the #2 seed, they will play WashU in the semifinals and either Emory or UChicago in the next round. If they play Emory it will likely be in the finals and if they play UChicago it will likely be in the 3rd place match. If they lose to Emory they keep their place and if they beat UChicago they will slip below WashU. The only dangerous situation (worst case) is if they lose to UChicago; even then they have a pretty good chance to snag the last Pool C spot.

Team: #8 Middlebury
Notable Wins: #16 Skidmore, #27 Brandeis, #15 Chicago, #9 Pomona
Notable Losses: #4 CMS, #1 Williams
Remaining Schedule: #10 Bowdoin, #39 Bates, #3 Amherst, NESCACs
Verdict: Midd has a big match coming up v Bowdoin. I actually see Bowdoin winning that match to take the #3 seed in NESCACs, which is important because Williams (likely #1 seed) is on such a tear this year. In any case, Midd is pretty much in for Pool C as I don’t see them losing to Wesleyan if they even play against each other in NESCACs, and I certainly don’t see them losing to Trinity if that’s who they will wind up playing first round of NESCACs.

Team: #10 Bowdoin
Notable Wins: #31 Trinity (TX), #17 Wesleyan, #11 WashU, #23 Whitman, #18 Redlands, #33 Trinity (CT), #13 MIT, #39 Bates, #16 Skidmore
Notable Losses: #2 Emory, #9 Pomona, #3 Amherst
Remaining Schedule: #8 Middlebury, #17 Tufts, #1 Williams, NESCACs
Verdict: Bowdoin is in the same boat as Middlebury in that their most important competition is each other. They won’t lose to any fellow NESCACs below them, and on a good day, have a chance to topple Amherst and maybe maybe Williams.

This team has a relatively good hold on their position and if they don’t let any major upsets happen they are in. >75% in:

Team: #11 WashU
Notable Wins: #14 DePauw (x2), #17 Skidmore, #18 Redlands, #25 Denison, #15 UChicago (x2), #38 UT Tyler, #28 UWW
Notable Losses: #7 CMU, #15 UChicago, #4 CMS, #10 Bowdoin
Remaining Schedule: UAAs
Verdict: The only blemish on WashU’s record is their loss to UChicago at Indoors, but since then they have avenged that loss TWICE (interestingly, both of those times involved doubles sweeps). It looks like they are on track to meet yet again in the 3rd place match of UAAs. if WashU wins that match, they should keep their place and pretty easily snag a Pool C spot. If they lose that match, the series will stand at 2-2, and it should be interesting how the ranking committee decides to handle that. It might not make a difference in terms of Pool C, as they might grab the last 2 spots.

This team could not get the AQ job done in the fall conference championships so now they are fighting for their lives in the spring Pool C race. >70% in:

Team: #13 MIT
Notable Wins: #30 Wellesley (fall), #34 Babson (fall), #19 Tufts (fall), #27 Brandeis, #15 Chicago
Notable Losses: #34 Babson (fall), #4 CMS, #9 Pomona, #10 Bowdoin, #1 Williams
Remaining Schedule: #22 Vassar
Verdict: MIT made their lives a lot tougher in the fall by dashing their Pool A hopes by losing in their conference championship finals. They’ve recovered nicely by giving themselves a good shot at a Pool C spot with some nice wins and a bunch of indirects. They have a big match coming up against Vassar, and if they can hold on and win that match, they are sitting pretty for a Pool C spot while their peers around them are fighting for Pool C spots in respective conference tournaments.

This team needs to keep it together in their conference championships and basically beat who they are supposed to beat in order to keep that last but coveted Pool C spot: >70% in:

Team: #15 UChicago
Notable Wins: #25 Denison, #35 Oberlin, #14 DePauw, #11 WashU, #26 Hope, #21 Case, #38 UT Tyler, #28 UWW
Notable Losses: #21 Case, #6 Hopkins, #14 DePauw, #13 MIT, #9 Pomona, #8 Middlebury, #11 WashU (x2)
Remaining Schedule: UAAs
Verdict: UChicago has had some great matches this year but the thing that’s keeping them from being ranked higher than they are is their inconsistency in performances from match to match. They just have UAAs left, and it looks like they will at least be able to keep their spot in rankings, and therefore take the very last Pool C spot.

Pool A or Bust. These teams actually have a decent shot to take the Pool A spot and not have to play the Pool C game. >45% in:

Team: #22 Vassar
Notable Wins: #24 LaVerne, #23 Whitman, #32 Chapman, #30 Wellesley
Notable Losses: #16 Skidmore, #9 Pomona, #3 Amherst
Remaining Schedule: #13 MIT, Liberty League
Verdict: If they can’t get the win against MIT, they have a great shot at beating Skidmore for the Liberty League conference title and a Pool A berth. Skidmore emerged victorious in their first meeting but Vassar is looking a bit stronger now so that match should be an absolute battle. Anyone who gets to watch that match is in for a treat.

Team: #29 Lewis & Clark
Notable Wins: #38 UT Tyler, #36 Linfield
Notable Losses: #23 Whitman
Remaining Schedule: #36 Linfield, NWCs
Verdict: Lewis & Clark has busted into the national scene! They showed that they are the real deal by playing to a close 4-5 loss against Whitman, and they would probably love nothing more than playing them again in the NWC Conference Championship finals.

Team: #40 Christopher Newport
Notable Wins: none
Notable Losses: Redlands, LaVerne, #20 Mary Washington
Remaining Schedule: CACs
Verdict: CNU has no notable wins, therefore they don’t have a chance for Pool C, but they have a decent chance to get the Pool A spot as they will likely face Mary Washington in the CAC finals. In their regular season meeting UMW took the match 6-3, including a 2-1 lead after doubles.

These teams need to win 1 match that is not in their favor, but not completely out of this world AND they need some things to happen around them. <15% chance:

Team: #17 Wesleyan
Notable Wins: #37 St. Lawrence (fall), #32 Chapman, #18 Redlands, #27 Brandeis, #39 Bates, #19 Tufts
Notable Losses: #10 Bowdoin, #1 Williams
Remaining Schedule: #3 Amherst, #34 Trinity
Verdict: Wesleyan is another team that has busted onto the national scene. They’ve had a couple of crucial 5-4 wins against Tufts and Redlands that have propelled them into the top 20. They have basically secured the #5 seed in the NESCACs and will likely play either Middlebury or Bowdoin, and that’s where their incredible run this year will likely come to an end. BUT if they can pull off that upset, they will give themselves a good shot at a Pool C berth.

Team: #21 Case
Notable Wins: #35 Oberlin (x2), #15 UChicago, #26 Hope, #28 UWW
Notable Losses: #20 Mary Washington, #12 Sewanee, #16 Skidmore, #14 DePauw, #15 UChicago
Remaining Schedule: #25 Denison, UAAs
Verdict: Case will likely enter the UAA tournament as the #5 seed and face UChicago in the first round. Although I favor UChicago in that matchup, keep in mind that Case won that matchup the first time around this season.

Pool A or Bust Part II. These teams don’t really have a shot for Pool C but do have a shot at Pool A if they can win TWO matches in their respective conference tournaments. <12% chance:

Team: #25 Denison
Notable Wins: #33 Trinity (CT), #26 Hope, 28 UWW, #14 DePauw
Notable Losses: #15 UChicago, #19 Tufts, #26 Hope, #11 WashU, #35 Oberlin
Remaining Schedule: #21 Case, NCACs
Verdict: For Denison to get the NCAC Pool A spot, they need to beat Oberlin in the semifinals and then beat DePauw in the finals.

#35 Oberlin
Notable Wins: #25 Denison
Notable Losses: #7 CMU, #21 Case (x2), #15 UChicago, #16 Skidmore, #20 Mary Washington
Remaining Schedule: NCACs
Verdict: For Oberlin to get the NCAC Pool A spot, they need to beat Denison in the semifinals and then beat DePauw in the finals.

Team: #36 Linfield
Notable Wins: #38 UT Tyler
Notable Losses: #24 LaVerne, #29 Lewis & Clark, #23 Whitman
Remaining Schedule: #29 Lewis & Clark, NWCs
Verdict: For Linfield to grab the NWC Pool A spot, they need to beat Lewis & Clark in the semifinals and then beat Whitman in the finals.

#37 St. Lawrence
Notable Wins: –
Notable Losses: #17 Wesleyan, #26 Hope, #16 Skidmore
Remaining Schedule: #22 Vassar, Liberty League
Verdict: For SLU to get that Liberty League Pool A spot, they need to beat Vassar in the semifinals and then Skidmore in the finals.

These teams need to win 1 or 2 matches that are not in their favor, and it’s going to be REALLY HARD. Even then, they may need some things to happen around them that are not in their control. <3% in:

Team: #18 Redlands
Notable Wins: #39 Bates, #27 Brandeis, #40 CNU, #20 Mary Washington, #23 Whitman, #19 Tufts, #32 Chapman
Notable Losses: #9 Pomona, #11 WashU, #12 Sewanee, #17 Wesleyan, #10 Bowdoin, #24 LaVerne
Remaining Schedule: SCIACs
Verdict: Looking at their schedule, Redlands is the hub that connects all ranked teams. Anyway, Redlands will likely face Chapman in the quarterfinal round of SCIACs. With a win, they will advance to face #1 seed CMS. This is the match they need to win.

Team: #24 LaVerne
Notable Wins: #36 Linfield, #27 Brandeis, #40 CNU, #18 Redlands, #32 Chapman
Notable Losses: #22 Vassar, #23 Whitman, #19 Tufts, #4 CMS, #9 Pomona
Remaining Schedule: SCIACs
Verdict: LaVerne had a great win against Redlands to finish out the regular season and claim the #3 seed in the SCIACs. This makes their path to the championships a little bit easier, as they face Whittier in the quarterfinals and then Pomona in the semifinals. It’s a tall task but if they can take Pomona down they might give themselves a chance…

Team: #32 Chapman
Notable Wins: #33 Trinity (CT)
Notable Losses: #27 Brandeis, #20 Mary Washington, #31 Trinity (TX), #17 Wesleyan, #3 Amherst, #22 Vassar, #18 Redlands, #9 Pomona, #24 LaVerne
Remaining Schedule: #4 CMS, SCIACs
Verdict: Chapman has a VERY tall task (Redlands and CMS in SCIACs) ahead of them but at least they have a task ahead of them!

Team: #27 Brandeis
Notable Wins: #32 Chapman, #39 Bates, #30 Wellesley, #34 Babson, #33 Trinity (CT)
Notable Losses: #18 Redlands, #24 LaVerne, #13 MIT, #17 Wesleyan, #8 Middlebury, #19 Tufts, #3 Amherst
Remaining Schedule: UAAs
Verdict: Brandeis will likely face WashU in the quarterfinals of the UAAs. If they can get by them, they will need to then beat CMU to keep their hopes alive.

Team: #33 Trinity (CT)
Notable Wins: #34 Babson, #19 Tufts
Notable Losses: #32 Chapman, #10 Bowdoin, #4 CMS, #25 Denison, #3 Amherst, #27 Brandeis
Remaining Schedule: #17 Wesleyan, #16 Skidmore, NESCACs
Verdict: Perhaps Trinity’s biggest match of the year was their improbable 5-4 win over Tufts to get them a berth in the NESCAC tournament. Next week they will play Wesleyan to determine who will be the #5 seed going in. They will play either Middlebury or Bowdoin in the quarterfinal round.

These teams need 3 or more really wacky things to happen, and it’s not going to be through Pool A. I’d say <1%:

Team: #30 Wellesley
Notable Wins: #34 Babson (fall), #39 Bates
Notable Losses: #1 Williams (fall), #13 MIT (fall), #34 Babson (fall), #28 UWW, #27 Brandeis, #22 Vassar
Remaining Schedule: #19 Tufts
Verdict: Their Conference Championships (NEWMAC) happened in the fall and they did not win.

Team: #19 Tufts
Notable Wins: #34 Babson (fall), #25 Denison, #24 LaVerne, #27 Brandeis, #39 Bates
Notable Losses: #13 MIT (fall), #4 CMS, #18 Redlands. #17 Wesleyan, #33 Trinity, #3 Amherst
Remaining Schedule: #30 Wellesley, #1 Williams, #10 Bowdoin
Verdict: Up until last week they had a sliver of a chance. But with their 5-4 loss to Trinity (CT), that sliver promptly disappeared as well as their NESCAC berth.

#39 Bates
Notable Wins: –
Notable Losses: #34 Babson (fall), #18 Redlands, #4 CMS, #27 Brandeis, #17 Wesleyan, #30 Wellesley, #19 Tufts, #10 Bowdoin, Conn
Remaining Schedule: #8 Middlebury, #1 Williams
Verdict: Their 5-4 loss to unranked Conn College really hurts them and probably takes them out of the Top 40. Will not qualify for a NESCAC berth.

As for the teams in the ITA Top 40 that I did not mention in this article, it’s because you are the frontrunner to take the Pool A spot for your conference. These teams are: #1 Williams, #2 Emory, #4 CMS, #5 W&L, #6 Hopkins, #12 Sewanee, #14 DePauw, #16 Skidmore, #20 Mary Washington, #23 Whitman, #26 Hope, #28 UWW, #31 Trinity (TX), #34 Babson (did it in the fall), #38 UT Tyler.

Well, there you go boys and girls, Pool analysis of the ITA Top 40 Teams!  Would love to hear your comments below!