FOLIAGE VAYCAY? EMORY TAKES A WEEKEND TRIP TO VERMONT
D3Northeast asked me if he should do the introduction or if I should, and then he called me lazy and said he’d do it if I didn’t do it. Well, I’m not lazy, and I’m doing it, while I’m over 10,000 feet in the air. That’s right, let’s join the blogger mile high club folks. I’ve got some spare time on this flight to wherever and I’m about to go do these next two previews big time. My first preview invites D3NE to the fray as we take a look at my best team versus some of his teams. I see some fireworks from one match in particular, so let’s get straight to it because I actually have to write about my region’s matches as well on this long flight. Let’s hope there are no DIII tennis fans on this flight because they’ll definitely see me blogging, but that’s a risk I have to take. Duty calls, ladies and gentlemen.
FRIDAY 4PM: #5 EMORY VS #26 SKIDMORE
D3AS: Emory vs. Skidmore is a match I wasn’t even thinking about previewing, but after Skidmore’s close call against Williams I guess we have to preview it. I don’t feel like previewing this one match by match, plus I’m not sure where Skidmore is strong in the lineup. *Takes a quick look at Skidmore’s past matches* The way Skidmore can win this one is if they take a doubles lead, obviously, but where else can they win their matches? It looks like the Thoroughbreds got a great effort from their #1 and #2 singles, but the thing is those are some of Emory’s strongest spots. Ruderman and Halpern are two of my favorite players and I think Skidmore splits the top 2 at best. I don’t think Emory will lose #3 or #4 with Mosetick and Wagner manning those spots. That leaves the bottom of the lineup as to where SKidmore has to take this match. The good thing for them is that Emory’s bottom of the lineup has been shaky this year and I am actually not sure who is going to play down there. Will D3West and I get our wish and see Arman Manji (I definitely spelt that wrong again, sorry) in the lineup for one of those bottom two guys? I think Emory is still too deep at the bottom of the lineup, despite their struggles, and Emory takes this one, 7-2. I am predicting wins at #1 doubles, #3 doubles and, #1,2,3,4,6 singles. It took me a while to count that to 7-2 for some reason.
D3NE: NE fans know that I was down on Skidmore at the beginning of the year, but can you blame me? The Thoroughbreds lost 4 of 6 singles spots to graduation, and one of those spots (Loutsenko) was the closest thing the NE had to a regular season lock (yes, even more than Fritz). However, Skidmore has been a pleasant surprise so far this year. They have had no trouble with top Liberty League contenders like RPI and Vassar, and took revenge on NYU for the beginnings of the 2014 blackhole. Skidmore also got a nice 6-3 win over a decent Cal Lu team while on their break, and pushed Pomona to 5-4 (then again, who hasn’t done that? Strangely, Amherst). Skidmore just hosted Middlebury last weekend, where the Thoroughbreds were beaten soundly 7-2, before traveling down to Williamstown and playing their 3rd 5-4 match in with the Ephs in less than a year. Skidmore was able to push Williams to the breaking point because they match up well with the Ephs. Skid is strong at the top, while it seems Williams has a bunch of #3 caliber guys. Unfortunately for the Skiddies, Emory is stronger up top. AS said it above, but it bears repeating. Ruderman and Halpern shouldn’t have too much trouble this weekend before Sunday. Skid can play some dubs, and that’s where teams can traditionally beat Emory, but I just don’t buy it here. Playing at the friendly confines of Middlebury is no advantage for the Mean Green Thoroughbred Machine. Emory 8-1
BONUS FROM D3NE: FRIDAY 3PM #24 TUFTS @ #8 MIDDLEBURY
D3NE: Ok, see below for my Tufts rant. For now, it’s time to just look at the tennis. Considering NE matches are why I get paid the big bucks, and my predictions have been literally horrendous of late, I figured I would give all the haterz some extra ammo and do an abbreviated match by match preview. I’m going to do this prediction with the idea that Telkedzhiev will actually be playing. There’s no reason for me to believe that he will be, but without him the match isn’t worth going in depth to preview. Not that Telk and Tan would be favored to beat Heidrich/Campbell, but his mere presence pushes Cary/Battle to #2 and Jacobson/Gupte down to #3 where both teams have a much higher likelihood of winning. I’ll take Midd at 1&2, but say Tufts gets #3 and Midd goes into singles up 2-1. I like Smolyar (Midd) to beat almost anyone he’s playing at this point, and I’m excited to see him gear up to try and exorcise some NCAA demons. At #2, Farrell (Midd) is one of the top freshmen in the region, and he’ll go up against another relative newcomer in Battle (Tufts) (though Ben is technically a sophomore). I see this match going the distance, but I like Farrell to pull it out in 3-sets. #3 pits Jacobson (Tufts) vs Campbell (Midd), and as much as I like Rob-Bob’s games, you will be hard pressed to see me pick against Palmer Campbell in region at #3 this spring. I know it’s somewhat anticlimactic, but that’s the clinch right there. It’s a good thing for Midd, bc this is where Tufts’ lineup starts to get tougher. Gupte (Tufts) could very easily beat Frons (Midd) at #4, but it would probably be in 3-sets, Ali and Mountifield would almost certainly go the full 3-sets as well, and Cary at #6 is a heck of a lot tougher than Cary at #4. All in all, I like Tufts to pick up a match or two down at the bottom of the lineup, but fall as a team. Midd 7-2
SATURDAY 11AM: #5 EMORY VS #24 TUFTS
D3AS: Woof. That’s how I described Tufts season on twitter the other day because that’s what their season has been. They have not won an important match to date. Their best result is a 5-4 loss against Pomona. It’s telling when your best result is a loss that everyone else under the sun has. Tufts is reeling and Emory is not the team you want to play when you are reeling, even if it’s kind of like your home court. The Jumbos will need a Jumbo effort from their doubles, because they aren’t going to win more than two singles matches. If Telkhezidev is out, then I’m not sure if they can even win #2. Again like I mentioned, their best chance is at the bottom of the lineup, but all of those bottom Bos didn’t even take a set off the Trinity CT singles players. They were playing one spot up, but that’s pretty nuts. Emory is a notch ahead of the Bantams (oh, really, Asouth?) and they will show no mercy as they’ll be looking to save energy for their biggest match on Sunday. They might even bring some of their deep bench in to play if the Eagles can get up in doubles. The wild card here is if things are played indoors, because it looks like NESCAC indoors play is some random neutralizer where random things happen. Seriously, look at the past few Indoors results for these NESCAC teams. Random teams beating people, Bates beating Bowdoin, D3West getting a six-pack, all of these are absurd. Tufts needs one of those days and I don’t think they are going to get it.
D3NE: First thing’s first, Tufts playing on Middlebury’s indoor courts will not give them an advantage. The reason there are complaints about NE indoor courts is because most bubbles are different and the home team has the advantage of practicing on those courts for days before a match. They range from slowish (Bates) to regular but still quick (Midd/Amherst) to lightning (Conn) and everywhere inbetween. I’ll admit that I think Bates beating Bowdoin has something to do with the courts they played on, but that is merely the luck of who hosts whom in which year. I seem to have lost focus, more on the Trinity and Bates midweek upsets to come in a later post. Tufts is riding the struggle bus right now, and it’s time for them hop off. Unfortunately for Jumbo fans I just don’t see this one being the match. I really believed they were going to beat Trinity the other day and predicted them winning 5-4. Maybe I overlooked the grit of the Bantam seniors, maybe I just didn’t plan on Tufts having to move up a spot, but for whatever reason this loss really surprised me. I have heard so much from both Tufts fans and tennis fans about how this was going to be Tufts’ year and now that the new coach was here he was leading the Jumbos to NCAAs let alone NESCACs. Honestly, I’m a little disappointed and I’m sure the Tufts’ team is as well. The best part about the DIII season, it forces you into a short memory. Following up losses to Brandeis and Trinity with a weekend of Emory and Middlebury, Bo’s fans are gonna have to have an even shorter memory. Emory 8-1 (no Telk), Emory 6-3 (with a healthy Telk). Prove me wrong, boys! #BulletinBoardMaterial
SUNDAY 10AM: #5 EMORY @ #8 MIDDLEBURY
D3AS: Oh man, what should we do NE? Should we do it?! A match by match preview?! Maybe if NE actually got on the google document, I’d be able to write a match by match preview with his input on some matches…. oh wait, he’s here! Let’s combine and see what we got. By the way, this is an absolutely ridiculously important match for Pool C. The UAA needs to start proving that they are in at least the same ballpark at the NESCAC otherwise they might only get one team from their conference into the tournament. Now, Emory doesn’t care about the fates about the other teams, but it’s still a big match in its own right. Look for Emory to be fired up to try and take over what seems to be a nice budding rivalry. If only we had more budget to send teams where they should be.
D3NE: Stop pontificating and get to the damn preview.
#1 doubles: Ruderman/Wagner (EU) vs. Heidrich/Campbell (Midd)
AS: It’s tough to do a matchup by matchup when the team you are covering hasn’t played a DIII match in what feels like a century, but here goes. Ruderman/Wagner are clearly the #1 team on Emory and by far their best team in my eyes. This is definitely a swing match considering Middlebury’s #1 has been solid all year. Can the duo of seniors take this strong team out? I think they do – Emory, 9-8 (3)
NE: Heidrich and Campbell have been a solid pairing so far this year. The duo is 10-4, but have turned it on of late winning 4 of their last 5 including a nice 9-7 win over Wood/Dorn (CMS). However, Ruderman and Wagner are a VERY solid team as well, and I expect this match to go deep. My prediction here depends on whether this is an indoor or outdoor match. The weather in Midd this weekend says sunny, so Emory, 9-7.
#2 doubles: Halpern/Rubenstein (EU) vs. Smolyar/Farrell (Midd)
AS: This is a big-hitting team that can blow you off the court if they need to, but will sometimes get the hiccups and lose unexpectedly. It’s been an up and down season for them as they’ve beaten Wash U’s #2, but lost to CMU and Trinity. This is a team with high-flying potential, but they come up short here. Middlebury, 8-5
NE: Ari and Noah have been Midd’s best doubles team so far this year. It’s not uncommon to see your #1 and #2 singles players playing below #1 dubs, but to see them teamed up lower than #1 is somewhat rare. This Panther team has won 9 of its last 10, with its only blemish coming 8-6 to Butts and Morkovine. I like the singles guys to get a big dubs win. Middlebury, 8-5.
#3 doubles: Mosetick/Omsky (EU) vs. Frost/De Quant (Midd)
AS: This is a strange team put together but it looked like they had a great chemistry together at Indoors despite Rafe having the yips on his serve. The Middlebury #3 team stepped up against Williams, but can they step up against a more legit team in Mosetick/Omsky? I think the Emory team wills this one out and takes a close match over potentially Middlebury’s weakest team. Emory, 8-5
NE: This Middlebury team struggled in California, and has been playing better of late but against somewhat weaker competition. Mosetick is one of my favorite gamers in all of DIII, and I think he puts the team on his back, Greg Jennings style, and carries the Eagles to a lead going into singles. Emory, 8-6.
#1 singles: Alex Ruderman (EU) vs Ari Smolyar (Midd)
AS: Prietime matchup! The man that comes up with Ari-ana Grande serves has been lights out this year and Ruderman has honestly been far from lights out. While Alex hasn’t been bad, he hasn’t been the dominant player he was last year. I think this one depends on whether or not this thing is played indoors our outdoors. I’m going to assume outdoors and take my dude from Emory, 7-5, 7-5.
NE: Hot damn. Right of the bat we’re given a lights out matchup between two guys with very different game styles. Generally, I like the consistent grinder over the power player, but Ari has just been spitting filth everytime he picks up his sticks. This is a prediction where I know AS and I are going to differ, and I’m just fine with that. Middlebury, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1.
#2 singles: Eric Halpern (EU) vs. Noah Farrell (Midd)
AS: This spot is one fo Emory’s biggest advantages, with Farrell not necessarily being a top #2 despite flashes of brilliant play. Halpern on the other hand has been extremely consistent with his playing level even with a few losses on his resume. It’s tough to win all your matches at the top of the lineup, but Halpern has done close to that at least. I think indoors would suit Halpern better but either way, I have him as the favorite in this match. Emory, 6-4, 6-4
NE: Farrell has some nice wins this year, coming against Cummins (Redlands) and Sanderson (Skidmore), but the freshman might be a bit overmatched here. Even if this were a toss-up, do you really see me going with the freshman over a battle-tested senior like Halpern. Experience over everything. Emory, 6-4, 6-2.
#3 singles: Rafe Mostick (EU) vs. Palmer Campbell (Midd)
AS: This is the match I am most excited for because it features a very strong junior in Palmer Campbell and another very strong willed player in Rafe Mosetick. Campbell has been a rock in Midd’s lineup, almost exactly like Rafe. I really don’t want to pick against Mosetick but I like the senior power here in what should be a heated battle. Middlebury, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-3
NE: Hmmmm, if you read my bonus preview above, you’ll see that I’m giving Palmer Campbell some pretty serious love. Then again, I did the same for Maestro Mosetick in the doubles portion of this preview. Love this matchup as I think both are absolute competitors. If PC is going to pull this one out, I think it needs to be in straight sets. If it goes 3, advantage Rafe. Luckily for the region, I’m sticking with the straight set approach. Middlebury, 7-6 (2), 6-4.
#4 singles: Ian Wagner (EU) vs. Jackson Frons (Midd)
AS: Wagner has got a ton of talent but sometimes fails to put it together for a whole match or even to start the match. He does win most of his matches, however, and should be favored to at least begin the match. It’s been a while since DIII competition for these Emory guys and remember it’s a bit farther for Emory to travel in this one as well. My gut is telling me that Frons will pull the upset and win this one after getting Wagner to self-destruct. Middlebury, 6-3, 7-5
NE: I’m less high on Frons than AS, though after looking at his W-L I’m not sure why. Jackson’s only losses came to Dorn (CMS), Maassen (PP), and Polk (Stevens), all of whom have been excellent this year. But for whatever reason I’m leaning towards Wagner here. Wagner was nasty last year, and though he took a couple tight losses at Indoors, he has been killin of late. Emory, 7-5, 6-4.
#5 singles: Josh Goodman (EU) vs. Courtney Mountifield (Midd)
AS: Mountfield of Middlebury is someone that strikes you as a top player because he brings a ton of really good kids the distance. There are times, however, when I simply don’t think he is going to win. Meanwhile, Goodman hasn’t exactly caused us to believe in him all that much this winter so this one is a toss-up. It might even be Rubenstein here but I think everyone is remembering what happened with him at Indoors in the Trinity TX match. Goodman brings a ton of gamesmanship but Mountfield won’t bite. He may not have to worry about it, but I think Mountfield wins this one real close for Middlebury, 7-6, 1-6, 6-4
NE: This is where the lineup intrigue starts for the Panthers. Mountifield didn’t play in the Panther’s match vs. Williams earlier in the week, but I don’t know the cause. If Courtney is hurt, look for De Quant to move up a spot. However, Mountifield could also have been benched. The senior has a less than stellar 4-7 record this year, and has taken surprising losses to Chapman and Hamilton. However, Courtney plays best when the pressure is at its highest, and that seems to be the case here. Emory’s surefire starters fall off after #4, so I’m taking the known (if only somewhat) product in Mountifield here. Note: If De Quant steps in at #5, I still like Midd to win this match. Middlebury 3-6, 6-2, 6-3.
#6 singles: Scott Rubenstein/Aman Manji/Bazzarella (EU) vs. William De Quant (Midd)
AS: No idea who is playing this match for Emory, then all of a sudden it becomes a decider match for this one. Emory has been revolving players around in case they want to go with one of their talented freshmen at the #6 spot, but nothing has been set in stone really. It might be Bazzarella, who has shown a lot in his DI matches since Indoors, and it might be Manji, who is a blog favorite for whatever reason. De Quant doesn’t strike fear into the Emory lineup but this could be the first time an Emory freshman plays a big match. Either way, I think the talent takes the Eagles to victory. Emory, 6-3, 6-4.
NE: Classic. AS and I both have this match being the decider. That’s how you know the match is gonna be close, when neither blogger wants to call the match before getting down to the last spots. I’m going with a bit of a caveat here. If Mountifield plays, I like Midd to win at 5 AND for De Quant to come out and get a straight set win at #6. If Mountifield doesn’t play, then I think De Quant goes and gets his win at #5, but I don’t yet have the faith in Van Der Geest to come through with what would be the biggest win of his young career. Midd (with De Quant), 7-5, 6-4. Emory (with Van Der Geest) 6-3, 6-2.
TOTAL PREDICTIONS
AS: There you have it folks, I have Emory winning 5-4, what a surprise. I have a lot of faith in the Eagles and I think they really want to prove they deserve that #2 spot. Now this would go a long way in proving that. I don’t have faith in my score predictions or match by match ones because they are so tough plus I am getting that airline sleepiness right now, but who knows, I might get lucky. That’s how I won the lotto that one time. Anyways, I think Emory comes out with this match – it’s a big one for Pool C.and I really do hope they win considering this affects Pool C hopefuls in the UAA.
NE: Hmmmm, I have both teams winning this match 5-4. Well that’s an interesting result. Gun to my head, I go Emory 5-4, but luckily that’s not the case at this moment. I won’t delve into the Pool-C details now, as I’ll be writing an NE Pool-C update next week, but this is a biggy both for Pool-C and for possible top-8 seeding at NCAAs. Let’s hope the boys from VT can step it up and take down AS’s only real contender!