ASouth here – We’ve decided to bring the one they call “The Guru” back for an article about all the top 20 teams and some grades on what they’ve done this year. For those of you who don’t know who “The Guru” is, he was the originator of the blog maybe 7 years ago (maybe more) and has generally been considered an expert throughout DIII Tennis. Okay, I’ll stop stealing his thunder and let him get to it. Be prepared for straight forward sentences and analysis – basically the opposite of what I stand for.
It’s both scary and sad that we’ve reached the mid-point of the 2015 season. My thoughts on the first half for your top 20 ITA teams…
1) CMS – A+ : CMS has done everything that was expected of them and have yet to have a match closer than 7-2 in D3 competition. If you remember 2013 and 2014, they were pushed in the regular season by the team that eventually beat them in the NCAA final. This hasn’t happened this year as the Stags toughest test was a couple days ago against Middlebury and they won this with relative ease. I don’t think CMS is unbeatable and they definitely have to bring it in NCAAs, but there’s not a clear challenger this year and this looks like the Stags best opportunity for a national title.
2) Emory – B+ : The Eagles somehow managed to get a #2 ITA ranking by finishing 2nd at Indoors and losing to a Trinity team that is now ranked 7th. Emory might be the 2nd best team in the country but I personally think they are #2 based upon reputation. Either way, the Eagles have one serious test remaining in their regular season when they play on the road at Middlebury. If they win this match, barring another semifinal upset at UAAs, the Eagles should enter NCAAs with a top 4 seed and a very winnable quarterfinal. I like Emory’s senior leadership, but question whether their bottom of the lineup will keep them from being a serious challenger to CMS.
3) Wash U – B : Most expected Wash U to be a clear #2 in the country but they haven’t quite met expectations this year. They finished 3rd at both Indoors and the Stag-Hen and have yet to be on their A game. CMS absolutely crushed the Bears in singles which doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that this team can win a national title. I still view them as dangerous and they have 3 tough matches remaining this season against Amherst, Williams and Chicago. Wash U is steady and will almost definitely enter the NCAA tournament with a top 6 overall seed, but exactly where they fall remains to be seen. Despite their great reputation, Wash U has not been to the national title match in 6 years.
4) Pomona-Pitzer – A+ : This is the rightful #2 team in the country and I feel very strongly about this. The Hens just finished going 14-1 against ranked teams in the month of March which is absurd. In recent memory, the only team I can think of that was as much of a surprise was 2010 Cal Lu that had a similar run under the leadership of Ballou and Giuffrida. Ballou is now coaching the Hens and I’m sure is a positive influence. The Hens have to survive GAC and Redlands and should get a couple more cracks at CMS before the tournament. I have my fingers crossed that they get shipped out of California for NCAAs but it seems unlikely given history.
5) Amherst – B : I would feel a lot better about the Jeffs if this was a Garner-coached team. Amherst fell short in their one big test on spring break, but we know this team is good after beating Hopkins and CMU in the fall. Even though the NESCAC is up for grabs, I still view the Jeffs as the frontrunner until proven otherwise. They have a huge match this upcoming Sunday when they host Wash U and this will lead them into their NESCAC schedule. There are still scenarios where Amherst can end up #2 or #3 in the country heading into nationals and there are also scenarios where they can be battling for their Pool C lives. I need to see more from this team before I consider them a threat to the Stags.
6) Middlebury – B : Midd had a decent spring break, but I’m sure they feel like the P-P match was one they should have won. So far, they have pushed CMS more so than any other team so they have to feel proud of this, but I’m not sold on the Panthers as a top 5 team yet. I think they sit at this ranking mostly due to reputation and how they are ahead of Trinity with Redlands as their best win is beyond me. Midd still has their tough NESCAC schedule ahead of them plus a match against Emory, so they have ample opportunity to prove themselves. After Amherst, I view them as the NESCAC #2 right now and I would guess they head into NCAAs as the #6 or #7 overall seed.
7) Trinity (TX) – A- : The Tigers have a reputation for being a much better team at NCAAs than they are in the beginning of the season. If this remains true in 2015, this is your top challenger to CMS. What we saw from Trinity at Indoors was something special, so I’m not overly worried about the loss to CMU and 4th place finish at Stag-Hen. None of those are bad losses. As long as the Tigers can avoid that #8 overall seed in NCAAs which it looks like they will, they are incredibly dangerous and can make a national title run. They will lay low the rest of the season and the only time they will be tested in D3 is against Tyler.
8) Bowdoin – A : Bowdoin has been a pleasant surprise this year with wins against CMU, Redlands, Whitman and the recent demolition of Wesleyan. The Polar Bears are a legitimate threat to win the NESCAC, and if they do so they could wind up having an even better season than they did in 2012. Bowdoin was surprisingly shaky last spring, but they seem to have turned it around. They have a tricky match next week against Bates before playing the NESCAC big 3, in which I expect them at get at least 1 win. This is most likely a Pool C team that could end up getting a top seed in NCAAs.
9) Carnegie Mellon – B : CMU was crushed with injuries early in the season and looked down and out after a 7th place at Indoors and losses to Bowdoin and P-P. They somehow found a second wind, finding themselves in the tournament if it started tomorrow and in the top 10 in the country. Unfortunately for CMU, they can’t really raise their ranking unless they pull an upset at UAAs. First though, they need to focus on huge matches this upcoming weekend against Case and Kenyon that will go a long way in determining their NCAA fate. They then have a nothing to lose match against Hopkins before the UAA tournament, which is as big or bigger than this weekend.
10) Hopkins – C+ : C+ may be a little harsh, but a Hopkins team with national championship expectations is currently ranked #10 and only has one opportunity to move up with a match against CMU. At the absolute best, it looks like JHU could have a quarterfinal with CMS and at the worst they could bow out in the round of 16 to Amherst or Midd. The Jays actually put up a decent singles showing against the Stags and I think they have the potential to push them again if they meet in NCAAs. Unfortunately for Hop, their best chance to show their stuff was Indoors and they came out in 4th place. Hopkins play hasn’t been C+ level, but they don’t have the results or ranking to prove otherwise.
11) Kenyon – B+ : Kenyon has been much better than expected this year putting together a very nice season. They have 2 wins over Case and a win against CMU at Indoors. The loss against Wesleyan wasn’t great, but they still look poised for a top 12 finish which is respectable given where this team stood at the end of last season. They have excellent leadership from Heerboth and Geier and are dangerous on the right day. They have a chance to creep back into the top 10 if they can beat Carnegie this weekend, but my guess is a healthy Tartans squad will be too tough. I expect the Lords to bow out in the Sweet 16 this year and finish 12 or 13.
12) Case Western – B- : I’m not sure what to make of Case this season since they have been all over the place results wise, but I do know their biggest match of the season is in a couple days against CMU. If they want to have a shot at Pool C, they need this win as badly as the Tartans do. Case started hot early by beating a Chicago team that was projected to be top 10, but followed it up with a mediocre Indoors. The 5th place finish in a very strong Stag-Hen was a bright spot, but they also got crushed by Wash U and recently struggled with a Stevens team that’s not in the top 20. Case plays with a lot of emotion and they will need every bit of it as they make their NCAA push in an attempt to return to the Elite 8.
13) Chicago – B : The Maroons don’t bug me as much as they bug Central, but it’s still pretty bad. This team is absolutely loaded with talent and still are ranked #13 in the country, missing out on opportunities against Case early in the season and P-P recently. Chicago beats the teams they should and their last opportunity for a big win prior to UAAs will be against Wash U. The Maroons beat the Bears in a regular season match in 2011 and came into NCAAs as a top regional seed, so this year’s Chicago team should aim for that. The Maroons are on the outside looking in for Pool C, so they need to make something happen or they will miss the tournament.
14) Williams – B : I think more highly of Williams compared to some of the other bloggers and their California results were not bad. They swept doubles against a solid Gustavus team and comfortably beat Redlands 6-3. What Williams has not been able to do since their national title is get a big win against a top 8 team. They will have several opportunities this season as they play Wash U, Bowdoin, Amherst and Midd. The Ephs are currently #4 in the NESCAC and also need to make something happen if they want to make NCAAs. I think this team is good enough to finish 1st in NESCAC and end up 5 or 6 in the country, but they have a lot of growing to do in the next 30 days if they want to accomplish that.
15) Whitman – C+ : Whitman really started well beating Redlands, Tyler and a Cruz team that has since pushed Kenyon and P-P to 5-4 matches. After their home quad though, they have not been good. An 8th place finish at Stag-Hen was followed by a blown doubles sweep against Bowdoin. The Squirrels are clearly a talented team that can push any top 10 team not named CMS, but I can’t get over the disappointing California results. Whitman has to hope for a nice NCAA regional, because they can’t do much the rest of this season to help their cause. This is a dangerous team in the Sweet 16, but I’m guessing this season will end up like the others for the Squirrels.
16) Gustavus – B+ : I admire Gustavus’s fight and after getting decimated by graduations, they still manage to land at #16. The Gusties played 3 excellent matches at Indoors, pushing the eventual champions and sweeping Case in doubles. GAC beats the teams they should beat and they get cracks at CMS, P-P DePauw and Chicago during the remainder of this season. Despite Carleton’s mini resurgence this year, I still expect the Gusties to capture the conference title and possibly host Trinity for NCAAs like we have seen in years past. And also like years past, nothing has changed and GAC is still incredibly dangerous on their home courts against top teams.
17) Redlands – C+ : I did some research and the last time Redlands beat a year-end top 10 team was 2010. Since then, they are 5-11 in 5-4 matches against D3 competition. The Bulldogs have made a habit out of finding a way to lose and although it’s harsh, it’s the truth. I’m not entirely sure what the problem is, but this year is more of the same. They put themselves in positions to win but can never seem to close. The Bulldogs have a winnable match coming up against a top 5 squad in P-P and they will most likely get another crack at the Hens in the SCIAC tournament. Redlands can salvage another disappointing season with a win against P-P, but the way things are going that doesn’t seem likely.
18) Wesleyan – B : The Cardinals have showed promise and this has been said many times. They still have a long way to go though and it starts with doubles and discipline. Although their NESCAC season didn’t start well with losses to Bowdoin and Bates, I’m anxious to see what they do this year. They still have W&L, Trinity CT, Wash U, Williams and Amherst. If they can get 3 wins out of that bunch, I think we can say they are headed in the right direction going into 2016. The Cards got their signature win against Kenyon this year, but the next step is showing consistency and they are still far from that.
19) Mary Washington – B- : Mary Wash has quietly had a pretty good season, but it hasn’t been that much better than past years. To me, their huge blemish is a loss to Redlands, but if you look past that, they have wins against Swat, Stevens, Bates, W&L, DePauw, Cal Lu and a surprisingly good NCW squad. D3 is certainly deeper than it has been so I’m not sure if a ranking higher than 19 is justified, but the Eagles should be somewhat happy with how they’ve been playing this year. I’ve been hard on them in the past and I don’t think this team has what it takes to beat CMU or JHU, but a Sweet 16 finish and a top 20 year end ranking are good outcomes.
20) Tyler – B : UT-Tyler went 1-2 in their first quad of the season with a good win over a tough Cruz team, so I’m anxious to see how they will fair in their second tougher quad with Wash U, Whitewater and Chicago. The Chicago match is the one I really have my eye on as it will test the Pats. Tyler traditionally plays good doubles, so they could jump on the Maroons here. Other than their Cruz win, Tyler has been quiet this year and will most likely win the ASC and head into NCAAs as a 2 seed somewhere. They need to hope they don’t get shipped to the West like they did last year. Much like I just said about Mary Wash, if Tyler can finish top 20 and make the Sweet 16, this is a good result.
This year, CMS’s closest scores with their full line-up have been 7-2 (Bates, Midd and JHU).
Looking at those scores, it would appear that to beat CMS, you need to take two of the dubs (most likely to be at #1 & #3), have a #1 capable of beating Wood (he’s shown some vulnerability in his recent matches), have a strong #6, and pick up one other match in the line-up. Someone with power and tenacity might take Morko, but he’ll outgrind just about anyone).
Oh yeah, and you have to believe you can do it.
Trinity and Amherst just don’t have the depth to pick up points at 5&6. And Wash U/PP have the depth, but need the upset further up in the line-up. Some of the revolving door at PP have beaten Macey/HullI/Mehall in matches over the last two years, and Maassen was very close with Morko. I think PPs greater challenge is approaching CMS like their other matches earlier this year. There is no chance if they don’t believe they can do it.
Midd on neutral grounds might have a chance. They line-up well and should be stronger in dubs than we’ve seen so far. CMU… I don’t see it, they need better dubs (swept by Bowdoin, and just a hair away from the same by PP??). Emory, who knows, they lost to Trinity in the places they’d need to win with CMS.
Yeah, CMS is beatable … the devil is in the details because taken overall, they are the strongest team in DIII.
I would argue that P-P could be the team with the best shot at CMS. Taking three singles matches off the stags would be tough, so a win might have to come via a sweep, and the Hens have shown that they have the goods at all three doubles positions. In singles, they don’t seem to have much of a chance at 3 and 4, but Yasgoor at #2 could win (or they could switch him to #1, where he’s beaten Wood twice), and someone like Maassen or Malech could beat Mork or Macey on the right day.
Regarding Trinity, they have a great #2 doubles team and could potentially get the dubs sweep on a good day for their #1s. They could potentially win at #1 (with Krull), #2 (with Skinner), and #5 (with Curtis), but I don’t see them winning at 3, 4 or 6.
I don’t know much about Midd, but I would say they clearly played the closest match with the Stags in singles. If they can get their doubles together, they could be dangerous. (NESCAC teams traditionally play much better dubs at the end of the year than over Spring Break as they figure out their pairings).
I might be crazy for saying this, but I actually think Bowdoin has a Dark Horse chance at being very good this year. They beat a couple pretty decent teams from down 0-3, telling me their singles is very good. The Polar Bears have played great doubles in the past – I think they swept Williams in a victory one year – and if they get that together, I think they could be very dangerous.
CMS is beatable, but this may be the most difficult year to do so. Not because this is the best of CMS’ last three #1 teams (let the arguments begin about that), but because of the lesser strength of competition. Ask Nick Ballou about that, as a former player not a current coach. CMS hasn’t lost a SCIAC match in nine years. P-P won’t break that streak.
Trinity has the ability to steal matches wherever they want, because they are one of the scrappiest teams I’ve seen. They believe they can do it and they have a ton of talent. I can see them taking 2 of 3 doubles, Krull with a win, Skinner with a win (the big 4 isn’t unbeatable guys) and then Curtis in his senior year taking #5.
Amherst we haven’t seen close to their best yet. They will be a threat and I don’t want to say they aren’t until they play more than like 2 DIII matches. I don’t think Midd has a chance. I also don’t think PP has the formula to beat CMS despite being potentially the #2 team in the nation, despite what West says. Only way I can see it is if they get so used to CMS by playing them a billion times that they scrap out random wins.
For my region’s teams, I think they are both a bit underestimated right now. Emory has essentially 3 seniors in the top 4 (I realize CMS has 4). Every single player in the top 3 has a chance on attitude alone. They’d have to make it happen in doubles but thankfully those are prosets. With their depth they can figure out #5 and #6 potentially. CMU on the other hand is a team we haven’t seen at full strength this year. They have strengths 3-6, a wild card team at 1, and have an ITA finalist doubles team at #3. Exactly the formula mentioned above. Again, none of these teams are CLOSE to favored. I’m thinking about one day, anything can happen. Those are still my teams.
Thanks for this article. From your assessment, it’s not clear which team is best-equipped to take down CMS; does this mean that in your estimation, there is no clear challenger? You mentioned that Pomona-Pitzer is the rightful #2, but do you really think they have a better shot at CMS than Trinity, Amherst, etc.?
Matt! Thanks as always for your comments. I’m sure the Guru will respond, but I think the following teams have the formula to challenge CMS on the right day.
– Amherst
– Trinity TX
– Wash U
Dark Horse candidates – Emory, CMU
I agree with your picks and don’t think Pomona has the higher level that an Amherst or Wash U can reach on the right day.
This topic would be a compelling roundtable article–each of the men’s writers gives their pick, followed by an explanation of how it would have to play out.
I basically agree with what’s already been said, but I would throw Pomona in there because I’m done doubting what they can do.
After Amherst’s impressive showing yesterday, I put the Jeffs with Trinity as the top 2 contenders to CMS. I don’t think either of these teams beats CMS more than 3 out of 10 times, but they have the most potential to “have the right day.” I saw some doubting of the Tigers above, but disagree with it after seeing what they were capable of at Indoors.
My next tier would be Wash U, Emory and Pomona. I thought Wash U would be the clear contender before this season started but that’s definitely not the case. They won Indoors last year and carried a #2 ranking through the entire season, but have been weaker this year with a stronger team on paper. Doubles remains an issue, Carswell isn’t what he was and they got absolutely walloped in singles by the Stags in March. Emory has the top 4 to compete with CMS, but I’m still not sold on their doubles and 5/6 spots. Pomona is solid overall, but I’m not sure where the wins would come from. These teams beat CMS 1-2 times out of 10.
You then have very talented teams like Midd, Bowdoin, Hopkins, Chicago and Carnegie, but none of these teams have shown they can get their entire team on the same page on the same day. They all have the potential to play with CMS on paper, but actually doing it is a totally different proposition.