Hello again, boys and girls, and welcome to my first NE weekend preview of the year. I’ve been so caught up in #SB15 over the past few weeks, that I’ve spent more time with Pomona’s twitter feed than my roommate. While there are still a few teams wrapping up their warm weather wanderings, most of the NE is returning or has returned home. I’m trying to enjoy the balmy 50’s today, but it’s tough when you know that snow is in the weekend forecast. If only there were a live stream today of some DIII tennis tomorrow evening. Thank the lord for CMS! I know D3West divided his weekly preview into intra and inter-regional matchups, but I tend to prefer chronology. Here are the NE matchups between two ranked teams:
Note: I will not be previewing Amherst vs. Colby or Trinity Ct vs. Conn College, because, frankly, they’re uninteresting. I’m sure @sspeer203 will provide at least one interesting/funny/creepy selfie. He’s a leading candidate for best non-team NE twitter account, and might even be well on his way to becoming the @wiggitywiggity1 of my region.
Note#2: Can we take a second to note the dominance of Tufts’ 2015 music video. Please check the poll to the left of this article. COUNT IT, D3AS.
Friday, March 27
#8 Midd @ #1 CMS 5pm: I already talked about this matchup in my Midd #SB15 Precap, but didn’t go too far in depth because I didn’t think Midd was a threat to challenge CMS. While my opinion hasn’t changed, we now know a little more about the Panthers, so here are a couple things to watch for. Will Midd take a doubles spot? I don’t think so. Going down 2-1 to Pomona and Redlands isn’t something to write home about, but it’s also not horrendous. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s better than Bowdoin or Wesleyan. However, CMS is playing some phenomenal tennis at almost every spot, and I still like the Stags to come out with a doubles sweep. After dubs, the marquee matchup will be between two newly minted regional #1’s Ari Smolyar and Warren Wood. Ari has been fantastic this week, knocking off both Chuddy (PP) and Lipscomb (Redlands) in straight sets. I’ll stick to my prediction from the beginning of the week, and say this match goes 3 sets or a super, whichever comes first. After #1, CMS should have a decided advantage at every other spot 2-5. The best of those matches could be Campbell/Marino, but Palmer (understandably) tends to fade after his team is out of contention. If you fade at all against Marino, you will pay through the nose. #6 could be a battle as well, as ALLEN Jackson dispatched Leahy (Redlands) 3&1 on Wednesday, and I see this match going to a 3rd set or superbreaker as well. Though I’d lean the way of CMS, I’ll say that Midd gets the super at either 1 or 6, and staves off the sweep. Prediction: CMS 8-1.
Saturday, March 28.
#15 Wesleyan @ #10 Bowdoin 2pm: Now you’re talking. This match has all the makings of an absolute classic. Both teams are young, hungry, and playing some incredible singles. The doubles, not so much, but the singles, whew baby look out. The Cards have either swept (Kenyon/Brandeis) or been swept (Redlands/Case) in 4 of their first 5 matches. Bowdoin on what is very much not the other hand, was swept by Redlands and Whitman, and went down 2-1 to Trinity Ct. The doubles here is basically impossible to predict, but one team has to take a lead into singles and after much consultation with my ouija board I’m going to take Wesleyan with wins at 1&2. In the singles, I like Liu to take down Trinka in three sets, Bragg to wear down Roberts, Chen to out “freshman” Wolfe, Savage to grind out Yadav in three sets, Tercek to out hit Monk, and Roddy to get past Rudovsky, which totals to an epic 5-4 Bowdoin win. Honestly, with the way Amherst and Midd look so far this year, both of these teams should feel that a win in this match is just a first step towards a NESCAC crown. Both of these teams are good enough to be playing in May (though Wesleyan’s loss to Redlands really hurts them), and while Bowdoin has a slight cushion on a Pool-C bid, they can not afford more than one or two NESCAC losses. Prediction: Bowdoin 5-4
#31 Brandeis @ #24 Bates 3pm: Regional talked about this matchup in his weekly roundup, and I tend to agree with him. Both teams had high preseason hopes, and Bates’ were astronomical after their Pomona win just kept looking better and better. A recent slide for both teams have left each desperate for a win. Even through their recent losses, Bates has still played decent doubles, winning more than half of their points last weekend in doubles (1/2 from NCW, 1/2 from UMW, 1/1 from Hop). Rumor is that Schwartz might be back this weekend, in which case I like the Cats to come out and sweep the Judges. If not, I’ll say that Bates takes a 2-1 lead with wins at 1&2. In the singles, Planche and Granoff is already an important rankings match. However, both teams play such loaded schedules that this one match won’t decide either’s fate. I like Planche to shore up his recent losses and come out to a big win over BG. At 2, we should have a heck of a match. Ellis had a good weekend down in the A-South, but Arguello has been arguably the best player for Deis so far. Let’s go Arugello in a super. I Schwartz plays, I like him at 3 over Bunis, but if not then the matchup shifts and I like Bunis to take out Feldman in 3-sets. At #4 we have Siegel against either Feldman or Rosen. Strangely enough, given Siegel’s game, I like him over Feldman but not Rosen. At #5 the matchups get even messier, bc I have no clue who the Judges will be playing. It could be Lubarsky, Secular, or even Miller. Either way, I like Bates to take 5 and 6, with or without Schwartz. Those scores add up to 7-2 and 6-3, both in favor of Bates, but if the match is played indoors then there will likely be a lot of drama with the match being close headed to 5&6. Prediction: Bates 6-3.
#14 Williams @ #17 Redlands 5pm: This has the potential to be the best match of the weekend. Redlands has been an excellent measuring stick for NE teams so far this year. The Dawgs cruised by Brandeis (7-2), just held onto a 3-0 lead to beat Wesleyan 5-4, lost a 3-0 lead to Bowdoin, and lost a 2-1 lead to Middlebury. Williams plays better doubles than any of those teams, but it’s singles are likely weaker than Midd, Bowdoin, and even Wesleyan, which makes the three doubles spots absolutely vital. If Williams can take a 2-1 lead, they should be fine, but it overcoming any deficit will not be as easy for the Ephs as it might have seemed for the Panthers and Polar Bears. Lipscomb/Cummins have been nearly unstoppable this year, and I like them at #1, but I think Raventos/Shastri are one of the better #2 teams in the country. That leaves #3 dubs as the proverbial swing match. I think Redlands takes it to go up 2-1 after dubs. Lipscomb hasn’t quite been himself lately, falling to Smolyar and Trinka in his last three matches. But Raventos has not proven himself to be a #1 yet (sorry, a close loss to Chuddy doesn’t cut it) so gimme the Dawg. Like his doubles partner, Cummins lost a heartbreaker to Midd the other day. He hasn’t been invincible, but he’s been very good. I like Cummins over Schidlovsky in straight sets. This is where the match starts to swing towards Williams. Even though C-Rad shouldered a tough loss vs. JK1 at Pomona, I like Harron over Parker Wilson at #3. Shastri at #4 is a luxury for the Ephs, and I don’t think he’ll have too much trouble with Joey Dulle. This brings us to the newly starting Taylor Hunt and Jordan “The Silk Worm” Sadowsky at #5…those Williams kids give weirder nicknames than I do. It hasn’t quite clicked for Silky in any of Williams’ three dual matches, and I’ll be interested to see how he does today against San Diego Mesa, but for now I have to give the edge to the senior and Redlands. #6 should be a battle between Weiss and another Redlands senior, Leahy. I’ll take Big Howie here, but this one could go 3-sets. All in all, I really believe that whichever team has a dubs lead will end up winning this match 5-4. Prediction: Redlands 5-4.
#25 Stevens @ #12 Case Western 6pm: Another match that I’m VERY interested in this weekend. Both D3Central and D3Regional have taken their cracks at predicting this one, and both ended up predicting Case to a 6-3 victory. Stevens has picked up some nice wins over Brandeis and UWW lately but I think Case is much closer to Midd’s level than those two teams. I see Case going up 2-1 after dubs, and getting relatively easy points at #2 and #3 singles. I’m a pretty big fan of Stevens’ young “depth”, but I don’t see all three ducks winning. I love Polk at #5, and even think that Drake at #4 could take out Steurke in 3-sets, but I’m not sure how Will Persson matches up at #6. Granted, it depends on who the Spartans start at the bottom of their lineup. If it’s Dughi, Chen, or Van Lent, I like Sparty at #6. You’ll notice I conveniently left out the #1 match. This is a match of EPIC proportions. It features two of the best 10 players in the country, and arguably two of the best five. I really do believe that Heinrich can push Krimbill, but I also think that if CJ is playing his game, he won’t be beaten. All in all I think Stevens is still a year away from winning this match. Luckily for them, they won’t be graduating anyone this year (Heiny, don’t go pro). I love the direction that the Ducks are heading, and I really want to pick them to win this match. For that to happen, they’d need a 2-1 lead, Heinrich to take down Krimbill, and two of the three bottom spots to pull out big wins. So you’re saying there’s a chance! There’s always a chance, but I’m not predicting it. Prediction: Case 7-2
Sunday, March 29.
#15 Wesleyan @ #24 Bates 2pm: Bates just seems like a different team with Schwartz in their lineup, so I hope for the Cats’ sake that he’s out there on Sunday. Bates may (and that’s a definite ‘may’) be able to take down Brandeis without Adam, but they certainly won’t be able to take down Wes. Bates’ philosophy here is very simple, play your doubles game. If Schwartz is back, Bates could easily sweep the Cardinals. As it is, I’ll take Bates to a 2-1 lead after doubles, with wins at 1&3. Singles is a whole different story. Liu seems to have Planche’s number, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Roberts and Ellis should be a wonderful matchup, and I can see Ellis wearing down Roberts on Bates’ slower indoor surface. At #3 we should have a fantastic matchup of freshmen with Schwartz and Chen, but you have to give the edge to the more proven player in Chen. I think Yadav out plays Feldman at #4, but I’m going the other way and taking Rosen over Monk at #5. However, given Coach Fried’s propensity to shift around his lineup, and that the Cards have a ton of depth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monk out of the lineup on Sunday if he loses on Saturday to Tercek as I’ve predicted. At #6, Ordway can bomb away, but I see a young guy like Smith or Daniels just tiring him out and bringing home the win for the Cardinals. Wesleyan cements their status as a top-20 team, and rebound after a tough loss to Bowdoin with a gritty win of their own. Prediction: Wesleyan 5-4.
Lots of fun matches this weekend. Don’t forget to check out the live stream of Midd/CMS today at 5 p.m. Quazzzzimodo #FTW