Believe it or not, there is still snow on my street. However, Quaz’s Cali vibe on the Stag-Hen live stream coupled with the biggest weekend of NE tennis yet kept me nice and toasty on the inside. As the snow melts for what is hopefully the last time, I have decided to give all you crazy kids my first state of the region address. I will go through the NE team by team, recapping the first few weeks of the season and set goals for the coming weeks. Don’t fear NESCAC teams about to go on #SB15, you’ll get a mention too. I’m sure this post is going to be long, because, well that’s how i operate. If you have any specific questions regarding your team or possible scenarios, feel free to comment or email me at D3Northeast@gmail.com. I will be taking on the NE teams in the top 30 of our power rankings. If you or your team are feeling particularly slighted (last year I did this down through 18 teams) D3Regional has been doing a fantastic job with his coverage so far this season, so go bother him. For all you wall of text NE fans, don’t fret, I will still do my end of the regular season state of the region, which includes every team in the regional rankings and was 15 pages of Microsoft Word fun. For now, enjoy the brevity, you heavens.
Note: the regional rankings below are up to date even if they don’t make a ton of sense. The first regional rankings will come out on March 26.
AMHERST: Power Ranking #3, ITA National Ranking #1, ITA Regional Ranking #1
Good news: The defending National champs go into their spring season with two huge wins under their belt. The 5-4 wins over CMU and Hopkins (without Zykov) remain impressive, and the Jeffs will look to build off their impressive fall on their spring break trip starting this afternoon.
Bad news: As is per usual, Amherst will be playing a ridonkulous 12 matches in 6 days on their Cali trip. However, their break is SUPER BORING! They don’t even play CMS this year. Honestly, I think that’s a good thing for the Jeffs. Make them worry more about you in case you do get an NCAA finals rematch. Amherst only plays one DIII team that might challenge them on their trip, and that’s Pomona on Tuesday afternoon.
Short term goals: Beat Pomona, and figure out the bottom of the lineup by the end of the trip. Realistically, as long as the Jeffs can beat Pomona, the trip will be a success. There is almost no chance they fall to Earlham, Chapman, or Skidmore, even if the Jeffs do decide to split squad. While Solimano, Zykov, Revzin, and Yaraghi are pretty close to sure bets for a starting singles spot, the other two spots are still very much up for grabs. Arnaboldi played well in the fall, but I’m not totally convinced. Scheiner didn’t make a claim when he had the chance, and the Jeffs do have some experienced guys like Fife, Einbinder, and Cypers waiting in the wings, doing their thing, and waiting for Coach Doebler to show them a little love.
Season goal: National championship baby! When you’ve won twice in the past four years, anything less is a let down. They may have graduated some key components, but my guess is that no hypothetical NCAA finals matchup scares CMS quite like Amherst.
MIDDLEBURY: Power Ranking #7, ITA National Ranking #3, ITA Regional Ranking #2
Good news: The Panthers had a nice start to their 2015 campaign, taking down Stevens and Brandies with ease on Saturday. Although neither the Ducks nor Judges are a legitimate top 20 team, the convincing wins allow Panther fans to breathe a sigh of relief before embarking on their very own Middlbury brand of #SB15. Also, that spring break trip will take the Panthers to California, instead of Georgia where the Midd Kids traveled last spring. Also, it looks like Midd is playing some sick dubs.
Bad news: After this weekend, I don’t believe Coach Hansen has any more idea about who should be starting at the bottom of his lineup. Mountifield split his matches, beating Drak (Stevens) in a superbreaker but losing to Siegel (Brandeis) in a superbreaker as well. Frons went out and got beaten in straight sets by Polk (Stevens), and then sat during the Deis match. Blog favorite, Allen Jackson lost only 5 games between the two matches, but is it enough to move him up over Mountifield or Frons?
Short term goals: Sustain only one loss in California. Midd plays a ludicrous 8 matches in 7 days, but the team does have 14 players listed on their roster. The Panthers should be able to take care of Chapman, Whittier, Pacific, and Cruz without TOO much difficulty (though a Hansen homecoming is always interesting), and then the trip gets a bit dicier. Midd ends their trip with Pomona, Redlands, and CMS in a 4 day stretch. I worry that playing PP and Redlands so late in the week will lead to some tired legs, but I guess we’ll just wait and see. While Midd will be favored against Redlands, my guess is the other bloggers might disagree on who the favorite in the Midd vs. Pomona match will be. However, we’re dealing with a proud team, legendary coach, and storied program here. Anything less than 6-1 vs. DIII opponents would be a disappointment.
Season goal: A national championship! While I’m sure Coach Bob-O is jonesing for another NCAA trophy, it’s easier said than done. Back to back national semifinalists is nothing the sneeze at, and is definitely within their grasp. But when you are good enough to host an NCAA regional, you definitely have your sights on the top prize
WILLIAMS: Power Ranking #11, ITA National Ranking #14, ITA Regional Ranking #3
Good news: The Ephs are getting their practice time in before every playing a match, and should be ready to go when they take on Pomona in 10 days. Also, their spring break is nicely spread out over a little more than a week, and even though they play 7 matches in 9 days, only 4 of them are against DIII competition.
Bad news: At this point, there really isn’t any. As is per usual at this time of year all is quiet up out in Williamstown, I guess the only bad news is that Pomona is the first DIII team the Ephs play, and might very well be the most important match on the trip? But even that’s a stretch because the Ephs will have at least 3 days in Cali with 2 non-DIII matches in the preceding days.
Short term goals: Get ready for #SB15, and go 3-1 vs DIII competition on the trip. The Ephs will take on PP, Redlands, Gustavus, and CMS on their West Coast swing, and taking 3 of those 4 matches would make their return flight home a happy one. Taking 3 of 4 matches puts them safely in the “Pool-C 5” for the time being, while 2-2 would make Coach Greenberg slightly more uneasy. For now, we must be patient…
Season goal: NCAA Quarterfinals. An Elite 8 run would likely mean the Ephs take down a rival in Amherst or Middlebury in the Sweet-16. At this point, it’s nothing close to a guarantee that the Ephs will even make the NCAA tournament, but this team is only two years removed from a national championship and Coach Greenberg certainly knows how to win.
BOWDOIN: Power Ranking #14, ITA National Ranking #10, ITA Regional Ranking #4
Good news: The Polar Bear freshmen can ball. Wolfe, Tercek, and Roddy are the real deal, and winning/playing tight matches against top-10 caliber teams like CMU and Pomona. The Pomona loss looks better after the Stag Hen, and the CMU win has nestled them in at the bottom of the top 10, where Bowdoin hasn’t been since their Elite-8 run.
Bad news: The Pomona loss still hurts. It was a winnable match, and a win there puts the Polar Bears into the top 8 and puts them in line for one of the very first Pool-C spots. Alos, Bragg seems to be off his game over the first week in Cali. Let’s hope he can turn it around from here on out.
Short term goals: Sweep the rest of the Cali trip. Bowdoin has a couple tough matches left, taking on Redlands in the desert on Tuesday and then turning around and battling Whitman at CMS on Wednesday. If Bowdoin sweeps the rest of their week, I’ll have no issue believing they’re a top 10 team, and will have to consider their matches vs. Midd and Amherst a little more closely.
Season goal: NCAA Quarterfinals. Just like Williams, Bowdoin will likely have to take down either Amherst or Midd if the Polar Bears are going to make it out to Ohio. As of this second (8:44 and 32 seconds on the evening of March 15th) I’d say Bowdoin and Williams are both in good shape for a Pool C spot, but there is just so much work left to be done.
BATES: Power Ranking #16, ITA National Ranking: #16, ITA Regional Ranking #7
Good news: How good does that Pomona win look now? My colleagues were tweeting about this over the weekend, but with each passing day Bates’ win over the Hens to start the year becomes more and more impressive. They don’t have a bad loss yet, and are finding ways to win without Schwartz in their lineup.
Bad news: Schwartz hasn’t been in their lineup since Cali. I don’t know what’s up with the freshman, maybe they left him at home when they flew back, but here’s hoping he gets better soon. Bates has had too many weird injuries/”sicknesses” over the past few years. Any info here would be appreciated. Also, while all the indirects from Pomona are nice, they will mean less and less as the Bobcats make their way through NESCAC play. The indirect over Bowdoin doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot if the Cats can’t beat the Polar Bears in April.
Short term goals: Finish March by going 5-1. Bates should have no issue with Colby this week, though that’s what I thought last year, and then heads south to take on NCW, Mary Wash, and Hopkins. If Bates can get out of the A-South with 2 wins, come home, and beat Wesleyan at the end of March, I will full believe that they are Pool-C legit. My colleagues are starting to voice concerns about a fluke win back in February. I’m not willing to go that far yet, but a loss to a middling team like Mary Wash, or even a talented team like Wesleyan, would verify those concerns. Bates has beaten Hopkins before (as they wouldn’t let us forget) but I just don’t see it happening this year, and CERTAINLY not without Schwartz.
Season goal: NCAA bid. Bates’ win over Pomona looks better and better, and with only a few matches under their belt the Bobcats would get heavy consideration if the tournament started today. They have a realistic shot at the final Pool-C spot. This is a change from my original season goal for the Cats, which was simply a spot in NESCACs, but after the Pomona win…everything changed.
WESLEYAN: Power Ranking #19, ITA National Ranking #34, ITA Regional Ranking #10
Good news: They finally have the win they so desperately needed. We all know this team was far better than #34, but until the Stag Hen the Cards’ hadn’t been able to prove it to the ITA. Now, with a win over a top 10 team, look for Wesleyan to jump around 10-15 spots in the next ITA rankings. Even with a 1-3 week, there was still so much good to take from the Cardinal losses. The freshmen are really talented, they have multiple #1 threats, and they have depth to spare.
Bad news: The 5-4 loss to Redlands really hurts now. The loss to CMS was expected, and the loss to Case was acceptable, but the loss the Redlands is likely the driving force keeping Wesleyan outside the top 20 AND out of NCAAs.
Short term goals: Beat Bowdoin and Bates. Aha! No more mediocre goal setting. We’re into the high flying stuff now. The Cards take on Deis, Bowdoin, and Bates before the end of March, and in order to rebound from the Redlands and Case losses back into Pool-C contention, Wes will need to win all 3 matches. While a 2-1 record would certainly be acceptable, another loss to a pool-C team would likely knock the Cards out of the at-large conversation. Let’s remember that this team is still super young, and just making NESCACs is still something to be proud of. Let’s also remember that I said they would be a national championship contender next year, so here’s hoping they get a move on!
Season goal: NCAA bid. While the program defining win over Kenyon was nice, i’m sure it just whetted the Cards’ appetite. This team is certainly talented enough to make NCAAs, but the direct loss to Case hurts. Still, stranger things have happened.
TUFTS: Power Ranking #21, ITA National Ranking #24, ITA Regional Ranking #8
Good news: Tufts’ spring break begins Monday evening. The Jumbos finally get to play a match! Also, no matches mean no bad losses yet. But perhaps more importantly, spring break means ANOTHER TEAM MUSIC VIDEO!!!!!!
Bad news: Their first match is against a trap team in Denison? Pomona has really stepped their game up? Honestly I’m reaching for bad news because I love the Jumbo’s spring break schedule. 3 matches in a week gives them plenty of rest, they don’t have the most important match first, and they can go 2-1 and still consider the week fairly successful because they didn’t schedule any true cupcakes.
Short term goals: Go at least 2-1 on their #SB15. The Jumbos start this afternoon with Denison, then take on Pomona on Wednesday, and head up to Thousand Oaks to battle Cal Lu on Sunday. While I believe Tufts should be favored in 2 of those 3 matches, beating two top 30 teams in the same week is nothing to sneeze at. HOWEVER, in order for me to really consider the Jumbo’s break a success, I’m gonna need to see a close match with PP. Most teams have played the Hens close, even if most teams are losing to them. Beating Denison and Cal Lu is nice, but getting blown out by PP in between would be a very disappointing result for a team who really believe they will make NCAAs. Also, I have very expectations for this music video. I have been assured that it will be nothing short of spectacular.
Season goal: NCAA bid. Ok, now we’re stretching a bit, but a trip to the big dance is what the Jumbo’s goal should be. They are a very talented group, and as of this second have no bad losses (even if they haven’t played any matches). Their expectations are higher than the rest of ours, but in a perfect world, Tufts could sneak in with the final Pool-C bid.
TRINITY CT: Power Ranking #24, ITA National Ranking #23, ITA Regional Ranking #5
Good news: Trinity has no bad losses yet. Like Tufts, even though they haven’t played a match yet, they will have some nice tests in the upcoming week.
Bad news: Trinity’s lone win from the fall is looking less and less relevant. Although Skidmore has been winning, they have been beating less than stellar competition so far. Also, Bates, Bowdoin, and Wesleyan already have statement wins on their respective spring break trips, Trinity will need one in order to keep pace. The Bantams best shot for a statement win is vs. Pomona. With the way the Hens are playing, good luck boys.
Short term goals: 4-1 on the spring break trip. This may seem like a lofty goal, but 3-2 is merely treading water. At this point, all of the writers expect Trinity to beat Sewanee, Cal Lu, and Denison. None of those three matches will be easy, but if the Bants are going to contend for a spot in NESCACs, they are level of teams Trinity should beat. The 4th match will have to come from either Bowdoin or Pomona. Both are playing better doubles, and both will likely be too much for Trinity, but a win over either of those two teams would go a long ways and re-open the conversation of a Pool-C spot for the Bantams. That will be no easy task, as Trinity has 5 matches in 5 days. Tired legs won’t help, and both the Cal Lu match and the Denison match are potential traps on tired legs.
Season goal: NESCACs appearance. Sorry Bantams, you may still have your sights on NCAAs, but here is where I draw the line. With the way Pomona is playing right now, and their NESCAC schedule being what it is, I don’t think the Bantams have enough chances to play their way in without totally shocking all of us. BULLETIN BOARD MATERIAL
STEVENS: Power Ranking #27, ITA National Ranking #29, ITA Regional Ranking # 18
Good news: It’s mostly good news for the Ducks. After a disappointing start to the year, Stevens rebounded with big wins over RPI, Swarthmore, and Brandeis. Those three wins will take the Ducks from lowly #18 in the regional rankings up closer to single digits. Heinrich has been playing like Heinrich, and the Ducks have found some MUCH needed depth in the middle and bottom of their lineup from Charles Drake and Danny Polk. Stevens absolutely deserves their top 30 ranking, and will have a chance to move even higher when the Ducks take on Whitewater over their spring break.
Bad news: The early losses to Denison and Mary Washington still hurt, but the recent loss to Middlebury was telling. While Heinrich played two close matches, the Ducks were seriously outgunned at #’s 2&3 dubs, #2, #3, and #6 singles. The Ducks may have made a leap into the top 30, but a couple guys can only carry a team so far. If the Ducks are to make yet another leap, they will need more consistent doubles play and some solid play throughout their ENTIRE lineup.
Short term goals: BEAT WHITEWATER. This is a very obtainable goal for the Ducks. UWW has been dealing with a few injuries and you know I always pick an NE team over a Central team. I don’t expect the Ducks to be able to compete with Case, but I really think they can stick with and potentially upset the Warhawks. The UWW match could end up being a major factor in where the Ducks end up in May.
Season goal: Sweet-16 appearance. Along with Bates, Stevens has been the region’s most pleasant surprise so far this spring. The Ducks are good bets to win the Empire-8 and make the tournament as a #3 seed in either the NE or at a Mary Washington hosted site. If the Ducks get a #3 seed, they’ll likely get a crack at a team like Williams, Bowdoin, or Mary Wash. While an upset is unlikely, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
BRANDEIS: Power Ranking #29, ITA National Ranking #33, ITA Regional Ranking #9
Good news: Honestly at this point there is not a ton. The Judges got a nice win at Chapman, but were down 2-1 after doubles. Arguello/Cherkin have been playing pretty well, and both Granoff (over CMS) and Siegel (over Redlands and Midd) picked up a couple of nice wins early on.
Bad news: After pulling out a tough 6-3 win over Chapman and taking Cal Lu down to the wire, the Judges have Redlands, CMS, and Middlebury by 7-2 decisions that were not as close as that score might indicate. Then, Deis had a chance to flip the switch against Stevens today, and totally failed. The Judges even took a 2-1 lead after dubs, something they hadn’t don’t yet this spring, and lost at 1/3/4/5. Even though #1 and #4 were close matches, depth was supposed to be the Judges’ strongest suit in this match. As of right now, Brandeis is solidly out of the top-30, somewhere I really thought they would be by this point in the season.
Short term goals: Brandeis will travel to Wesleyan on Friday, before taking on the Coast Guard Academy the next day. After USCGA, the Judges have Wheaton and Bates the following weekend. Brandeis needs to win 3 of the next 4 matches to save their sinking ship of a season and have any hopes of turning this year around.
Season goal: This is the trickiest season goal in this whole damn article. It’s unrealistic for the Judges to think they can make NCAAs at this point, so I’ll say a top-30 finish and an UAA tournament upset. Right now, Deis is on the outside of the top-30, and the loss to Stevens today certainly won’t increase that number. They’re going to have to beat MIT, NYU, Babson, and one NESCAC team left on their schedule to accomplish that goal.
SKIDMORE: Power Ranking #30, ITA National Ranking #27, ITA Regional Ranking #6
Good news: Recent wins over Vassar, NYU, and RPI show that the Thoroughbreds aren’t going to give up their regional ranking without a fight. None of those wins were particularly close, though RPI did lead 2-1 after dubs. Skidmore should have a handle on the Liberty League, and seems well positioned to make yet another NCAA tournament appearance. In individual news, recent POTW Kai Yuen Lueng has been playing some consistent #1 singles. Let’s see how he fares against the likes of Chuddy, Solimano (or whomever Amherst throws out that day) and Cardenas.
Bad news: The loss to Trinity Ct in the fall still counts. The Thoroughbreds were beaten solidly back in October by the Bantams, and that will reflect poorly in the upcoming regional rankings (although they will likely hold onto a top 10 spot at the end of the year if Trinity can hold their position). Also somewhat unfortunately, all of Skidmore’s recent wins against trendy regional teams aren’t mattering too much because those particular trendy regional teams aren’t doing much of anything else. In individual news, the 1 dubs team of Sanderson/Tong, who have a good history together, have been faltering of late.
Short term goals: Beat Cal Lu. I know that’s very short sighted, but Skidmore’s #SB15 consists of three matches. Pomona on Wednesday, Amherst on Thursday, and Cal Lu on Saturday. God Bless the Thoroughbreds if they add to the black hole and take down Pomona or Amherst, but their realistic goal should be to leave Cali with a win and the Kingsmen present the best opportunity. A win over Cal Lu would likely move Skidmore into the top 25 of our power rankings.
Season goal: Sweet 16 appearance. While Skidmore is not nearly as good as years past, the Thoroughbreds are odds-on favorites to win the Liberty League and make the tournament yet again. Last year, Skidmore nearly shocked us all by upsetting Williams AGAIN and came within a game of advancing to the sweet 16. While it seems even less likely this year, a round of 32 appearance for Skid seems ho-hum at this point.