Let the previews keep rolling. Instead of watching the NBA All Star Game, going out for #NYFW, or enjoying my day off like a normal person, I’m doing all of those things WHILE writing another Season Preview. This time, I’m going to be taking you guys through the expectations for the Mary Washington Lady Eagles. Oh, and SNL40 is on as well! I’m so trendy. Anyways, let’s get to the previews.
Coach: Patrick Catullo, 11th Season
Location: Fredericksburg, VA
Preseason Ranking: #22
Twitter Handle: @MaryWashTennis
Overview
The similarities between the Mary Washington Men’s and Women’s teams are hard not to notice. Both teams are extremely solid and almost always win the CAC Championship at the end of the year. Of course, this means that both teams get to advance NCAAs almost no matter what. They’ve had a hard time getting into the top 20 unlike their male counterparts, consistently hovering in the 20-25 region for the past few years. Their best season to date under Coach Catullo occurred in 2008, when the team reached the Elite 8. This was their first time reaching that far ever since their National Championship back in 1991. As you can see, Mary Washington is a storied program that is currently going through a “lull” period as they try and find their way back to national championship contention. Their past three recruiting classes have been ranked within the top 30 in DIII, so this stands for at least a decent spring board to potential greatness. This year, it may be a struggle for them to stay in the Top 25, as they lost their best player in Lindsay Raulston and didn’t do much to replace her. I simply don’t see the firepower there to move up into the top 20 unless they really get some improvement from their returning players, and they’ll need to make up for that big loss.
Lineup Analysis
#1 Singles, Shelby Harris
Universal Tennis Rating: 7.77
Shelby Harris is the clear cut #1 player on UMW after finishing the year at #2 singles last year behind the senior Raulston. She was leading Lehman of Hopkins at the end of her NCAA match, who was ranked #35 in the country. Harris has very little if any experience at the top spot in singles, so her ability to handle the pressure of being the big dog on campus will be key to the Eagles success this year. Depending on the amount of improvement she’s made in the offseason, I project her to be a solid #1 where her ranking will end up in the 20s or so.
#2 Singles, Mackenzie Smith
Universal Tennis Rating: 6.70
Last year’ #3 singles player for the Eagles is slated in at #2 so far this year. While I don’t have much confidence in this pick, I think it will be either Smith or Ritter here at #2 given the experience. Neither player was a particularly strong player at her position last year, and they struggled against the best of teams at the #3 and 4 spots, respectively. Smith will really need to find her game and figure out a way to go against the best of the best if Mary Wash is looking ahead in their schedule.
#3 Singles, Alex Ritter
Universal Tennis Rating: 6.87
Ritter, as I mentioned in the above paragraph, was Mary Washington’s #4 player last year. Against ranked teams at either the #3 or #4 position last year, she went 4-5. However, against top 10 teams, she went 0-4. I don’t see her as a top notch #3 player but she has the experience at this spot and can absolutely hold her own against the middle tier players. Ritter has also been getting some experience playing at #1 singles, such as this weekend, to further boost her confidence. She may be someone that is taking the next step, but we can’t be too sure at this point in the season.
#4 Singles, Caroline Mosberg
Universal Tennis Rating: 7.32 (reliability: 30%)
Mosberg is a true wild card on this Eagles team. We can see this by her reliability rating of 30% on UTR, but I knew that Mosberg would be a question mark coming into the season already. She doesn’t have much historical data on her, even on Tennis Recruiting. It looks like Coach Catullo will be putting his trust in Caroline at the #4 spot. Judging by the Eagles lineup, she will have to step up big time to get this team some easy wins that they will need. The top of the lineup is not that intimidating to top 20 teams, so Mosberg at #4 will be a big lift if she can succeed.
#5 Singles, Chrissy Gaul
Universal Tennis Rating: 6.18
#5 singles will be manned by a familiar face in Chrissy Gaul, who returns from the lineup last year. She was an adequate #5 last year, but unfortunately only won one match against ranked opponents at the spot last year. However, a year of experience at the same spot makes a difference, and that could mean a few more ranked wins in the bag for Chrissy this year. She had a decent showing in the ITA tournament this past fall before losing to Lehman of Hopkins, who is a legit #2 player at least. Chrissy will need to be better than last year to get this bottom of the lineup going.
#6 Singles, Ashley Price/Hannah Jabusch/Michaela Dowd
#6 singles is going to be extremely tough to call as there are a mish mosh of options here at the bottom of the lineup. None of the contenders have made their mark yet in terms of dual matches in the past, so it’s all speculative from here on out. Jabusch was the highest rated recruit coming out of this years class, but she has been placed behind the other two in terms of lineup positioning the past two weekends against weaker teams. I’m not sure whether that’s a ruse, but it seems like she might not be the answer. Right now, Price and her 6.67 UTR are sitting in the sixth spot waiting for what really would be her first shot in the starting lineup. I don’t have too much faith that any of these players will be powerhouses, but it’s not that hard to find a solid #6 player and UMW should feel comfortable they will get one out of this trio.
Doubles
Unlike Sewanee, Mary Washington cannot really rely on their doubles to try and get them leads against ranked teams. They started out the season dismally last year as they got swept by a few ranked teams, leading to upsetting losses that could have gotten them over the edge. However, the good news is that they finished the year strong by taking 2 out of 3 from Johns Hopkins in both of their meetings. They return 4 players from those lineups last year, so at least the chemistry should be somewhat solid, especially at the #3 spot with Ritter and Smith, who are two of their best players. Count on #3 doubles being a strength as UMW tries to grind out one of the other doubles spots to get ahead.
The Schedule – Key Matches
We’ve already passed the warm-up portion of UMW’s schedule where they swept through a few unranked teams at home over a weekend. Next up comes Spring Break, where they will play a couple tough teams such as Whittier and Redlands. Last year, Redlands put the Eagles in their place by sweeping doubles and slowly taking care of the rest. This is a big match for the Eagles because it’s one of the only matches they have that can truly get them in the top 20 and is winnable at the same time. They unfortunately did not schedule La Verne this year, who looks to be somewhat vulnerable, but I guess it’s just a year too late. Later on in the month, they’ll be hosting the Blue-Grey Invitational where we will get to see them square off against the suddenly upstart Case Western Spartans. That weekend, they’ll also play Sewanee and Oberlin. If they can get a 2-1 record that weekend, I’d say it’s a huge win for the team.
They will then move onto their harder part of the schedule as they get Depauw on the road, Carnegie Mellon on the road, and Johns Hopkins on the road. All these teams are currently projected to be in the top 10, so good luck to the Eagles. One win in this gauntlet would be incredible for them. They do have a few matches I haven’t mentioned, but there is always an upset brewing. Whether it be what you picked is a whole ‘nother story.
D3ASouth’s 3 Keys to Success
- Harris and Smith – The loss of Raulston from last year was absolutely massive with the lack of an impact recruiting class. Harris and Smith (projected at 1 and 2) will be instrumental in deciding if Mary Wash can hit the goals they had last year. If they can compete within the average bracket of their two positions, they have opportunities of turning the table on top ranked teams and turning an upset. UMW’s depth should be able to handle the lower ranked teams, but the key to upsets is a strong upset at the top of the lineup.
- Caroline Mosberg – As I mentioned earlier, Mosberg is a talent that we really don’t have much information on. She’s started the season well so far with three straight wins, albeit against lower ranked teams. If Caroline can move up in position to #3 or maybe even #2, that really relieves the pressure on her teammates. Year after year, we see teams that find diamonds in the rough surprise us and move up in the rankings with almost no expectations. Could that be something that happens to UMW this year?
- Shore up Doubles – Doubles was an issue for UMW last year against top ranked teams and there is no way to get around it. A silver lining of their doubles play was that they actually finished the year on a roll, beating Johns Hopkins in doubles 2-1 both times they played. That’s a strong team to take a lead on. If they can keep up that doubles play and keep the light switch on, we could be re-writing the story of the Eagles this year. I have to see it to believe it, though.
Well, that’s all for the Eagles! I’d love to stay longer but it is #IndoorsWeek for the Men’s teams, plus I have to write another Women’s preview by the end of today! I’m looking forward to the Eagles season as they have gotten off to a solid start against some lesser ranked foes. Hopefully, they can hold them at bay while they take their shots at the multiple ASouth teams that are ranked ahead of them at this time. It’ll be an interesting year for the Eagles, and maybe they should have a competition with their male counterparts to see who gets ranked higher at the end of the year!
Oh, and before I go, just a reminder that we are taking submissions for our recruiting interview with Tennis Recruiting in mid-March. If you or any other coaches are interested in doing an interview with us, please email me at d3atlanticsouth@gmail.com. Thanks!