Central Men’s Weekend Preview

Alright D3 tennis fans, it is about to get into the thick of things with some exciting weekends of tennis like the one coming up in the Central region, Spring Break Walla Walla, and National Indoors. It is still very early in the season, but a lot of questions have been answered and even more questions arise with the results. This is most definitely the case in the Central region and this weekend a lot of answers will be had. First off, one thing is for sure, even without playing a match this season Wash U is clearly still the top team in the region. No other team has set themselves apart yet and I am not sure anyone will challenge the Bears the rest of the year. However, with this weekend, a lot of things will shake out. While this weekend is important for all, Case and Chicago are in the thick of a reduced Pool C battle. Both teams need to come away from the weekend without a loss. Here are some brief previews of the 4 (ok more like 3 1/2)  big matches Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Friday

Chicago vs Denison

This match is the half match I mentioned in the previous sentence. I do think it is worth noting because last season, Denison pushed Chicago to the brink before falling 5-4. This clearly is a different Chicago team and a less impressive Denison team so I highly doubt it will be as close as last year, but crazier things have happened. Chicago comes in after a sub par performance against D1 competition two weeks agao, but a solid performance this weekend sweeping #35 Coe 9-0. Coe put up a decent fight with a couple three setters which bodes well for them in the future. I am going to assume that Kranz for the Maroons didn’t travel with the team for some academic commitments and hopefully he is back in play this weekend. It won’t matter against Denison because Chicago is deeper than the Pacific Ocean and even favored at all three dubs positions which never has been the case in the past. Denison might steal a doubles point or grind out a win in singles in the middle of the lineup, but in no way to I see them finding 5 points for the massive upset. Chicago could very well sit a few guys to rest up for the other matches in the next two days. This one will end 7-2 or 8-1 and I will lean towards the 8-1 scoreline in favor of Chicago.

Kenyon @ Case Western

Talk about a match that is full of question marks. If I remember correctly, I favored Case Western in the previews, but after this past weekend, I really have no idea. Kenyon has yet to play a real match and that is cause for concern although they did beat up on some prominent alumni a couple of weeks ago. I think the alums were likely a little “tired” from their time spent together the night before, but either way, beating many former All-Americans is nothing to scoff at. Case had a terrible weekend in which they were down 2-1 in doubles to an unranked Wabash team as well as very close to being down 2-1 to #19 in the region Augustana. Augustana was even missing their top player as the Aussie Open was calling (to watch, not to play). They played their full lineup against Wabash and squeaked out a 6-3 victory, but it could have very easily been 5-4 as six singles was two close sets. Kudos to both Wabash and Augustana for playing the Spartans tough. One thing is evident, James Fojtasek was an integral part of this Case team and his absence for this season is going to really hurt them. It is crazy to think that Case is no longer strong in doubles, but it looks to be that way. The top duo of Krimball and Stuerke will be fine even with the tiebreak loss as they have proven to be a formidable team with fall results. However, two and three doubles are extremely weak and that will put pressure on their singles play. Drougas is a good doubles player, but without Fojtasek as a partner, he isn’t going to be able to carry the second doubles pairing. When it comes to singles, Case is very weak at 3, 4, and 6. Krimball and Drougas will be great at 1 and 2, but Simhadri is streaky at three, Stuerke is extremely weak at 4 (lost to Wabash in three sets), and whomever Case throws out at six will be weak against national caliber teams like Kenyon. I think Dughi playing 5 is a slight stack, but I also understand his grinding style of game is better suiting at 5 singles so I get why he is playing there. Match-up wise, I think Kenyon should be favored at 2 and 3 doubles and I would give a slight edge to Case at 1 doubles, but easily could see a win for the Lords if Geier and Rosensteel are playing together at the top spot. That puts Kenyon up 2-1 heading into singles. Krimball and Drougas will be favored over Heerboth and Geier, but only slightly and I think both will probably go three sets. Both squads are weak at three so that one is a toss up. If Stuerke is playing 4, then Kenyon is favored there and Dughi will be favored at five, and finally Kenyon will be favored at 6 with any combination of players from either team playing. So count up all those numbers and what do you get? A 5-4 match! Gotta love the excitement right? The tough part of it all is that Kenyon has the more favorable possibilities. They can win at any of the spots. Case HAS to win at least one of the doubles, 1-3 singles, and Dughi. Because of that, I favor Kenyon which seems crazy to me because I think this could be a rough year for them as well. Kenyon wins 5-4.

Saturday

Chicago @ Case Western

Major Pool C implications! This was the match I was looking most forward too a couple of months ago as I thought it pitted two teams that should be fighting it out for who is the second best team in the region. A lot has happened since then that I have already outlined so the only thing that really worries me is if Chicago will be at full strength. The whereabouts of Kranz last weekend is unknown so hopefully he is set to play this weekend along with the rest of his teammates. While the Maroons depth is impressive, there is a lot to be said for having an experienced player in both the singles and doubles lineup. Another thing that I can’t believe I am saying is Chicago will be favored at all three doubles spots. I repeat, Chicago is favored to win all three doubles spots over Case Western. Sabada and Liu have a direct win over Stuerke and Krimbill in the ITA final so I have to give them the edge there on stats alone. It really is a coin flip and Case needs it more than Chicago does. Two and three dubs are Chicago’s matches to lose. Chua and Krimbill should be a fun match to see at the top singles spot and even though Chua is the #1 player in the country at the moment, this one is also a coin flip. I am picking Drougas over Sabada at two as Deepak has usually been a slow starter in the spring. With Kranz back, he would be a heavy favorite over Simhadri and Leung would be a heavy favorite over Stuerke even though Leung has not shown much as of yet. Dughi and Liu will probably play for 4 hours as both are massive grinders. I think Dughi will feed off the hostile home crowd and edge out the highly regarded freshman. Tsai will blow out whoever Case puts at 6 in what should be a quick match. With all this being said, Case has to win all of the matches that are coin flips in my mind just to have a chance. Doubles is a funny thing so Case could easily come out firing to put Chicago back in their place especially after Coach Todd probably laid down the law after this past weekend’s performance. There is no doubt that they will need it. If Case doesn’t get two of the doubles points, I don’t see them winning this match. Because of this, I am picking Chicago to win 6-3 based off shear talent. Of course it is hard to forget that this is Chicago we are talking about and they could get intimidated by the Spartans early and never recover. I will be an interested observer, but unfortunately from afar. Twitter updates are a must!

Sunday

Chicago vs. Kenyon

The finale of the weekend will be with a tired Chicago team and a Kenyon team that will either be reeling from a close loss to Case or riding the wave of a big win against a top ranked team as well as having a days rest over the opponent.I really don’t think that Kenyon matches up very well with Chicago and that could pose a problem if they do want to get the win. While with the current rankings, a Chicago win would look like an upset, but with the talent, it really wouldn’t be. Doubles will be very important for Kenyon to jump out to a lead. They are very capable in doing so, but Chicago has proven that doubles isn’t a weakness for them this season. Because I don’t know what the Kenyon lineup will look like yet, it is hard to give too much in regards to a prediction, but let’s say for hypothetical reasons, Kenyon comes out up 2-1. Chua will be a slight edge over Heerboth and I would give Geier a very slight edge over Sabada just because his big game matches well to beat Sabada’s baseline consistent style. After that, I would put Chicago at heavy favorites from 3-6 singles based off talent alone. Now like I mentioned before, some tired legs and the hopeful will power of Kenyon may make this match closer than I originally thought, but I still have to give the edge to the Maroons. I am going to go with a 6-3 scoreline.

Summary

Chicago 3-0, Kenyon 1-1, Case 0-2, Denison 0-1

When I step back and look at these predictions, it really blows my mind to think that I have Case losing both matches which will virtually knock them out of Pool C consideration unless they pull some major upsets at Indoors and the rest of the season. In the season previews, I had Case winning both of their matches, but that was before Fojtasek was out and before there was some extremely suspect results this past weekend. Case must win one match to keep their post season hopes alive and it is definitely doable. Kenyon is a big question mark without any other matches to compare to yet this season and let’s face it, Chicago is Chicago. This will be their first chance to prove that this isn’t the Chicago team of the past that has all the talent, but cannot get the results. It will be a fun weekend to see how it all plays out and I cannot wait to unpack all the fun statistics, lineups, and analysis after it is said and done. Good luck boys!