2015 Season Preview: #6 Middlebury Panthers

Middlebury 2014-2015 Season Preview

            Well hello again boys and girls! After a mini blog hiatus, the powers that be suspended me for my negative and insensitive comments about The Guru, #FreeD3NE, I’m back with my first season preview! I know you all have been yearning for my rambling style and unnecessarily long posts, so this team preview will be no different! I wanted to start my preview season off with our defending national champs. Unfortunately the Jeffs are good at three things, winning, bringing small pox to the new world, and not uploading their spring schedule. So instead of starting with the national champions, I’m instead starting with the closest thing the NE currently has to offer, the Middlebury Panthers. It was just a few months ago that Midd made the NCAA semifinals, and pushed then #1 CMS to the brink. Although they remain a talented team, the Panthers were ravaged by graduation. Coach Hansen has brought in one of the country’s strongest recruiting classes (#6 in DIII) and are gearing up for another run at a NESCAC title. They certainly have the talent to do it, but it will take a herculean effort from their freshmen class if they are to contend with Amherst. Before we get into lineup and schedule analysis, let’s take a look at some key facts about this year’s Middlebury squad, including a new item I will be debuting in my team previews: best and worst overreactions to the fall season. Enjoy!

Coach: Bob Hansen, 4^th season at Middlebury (30ish seasons at UC Santa Cruz)

Location: Middlebury, VT

Preseason Power Ranking: #7

Preseason Regional Ranking: #2

Projected End of Season Ranking: #8

Projected Regional Ranking: #2

Twitter Handle: @MiddTennis

Key Additions: Noah Farrell (4-star/Wilton, CT.), Kyle Schlanger (4-star/Summerfield, NC.), William de Quant (3-star, Bradenton, Fl.)

Key Departures: Alex Johnston (1^st singles/1^st doubles), Brantner Jones (2^nd singles/2^nd doubles), Andrew Lebovitz (1^st doubles), Teddy Fitzgibbons (#4-6 singles), Zach Bruchmiller (some #6 singles)

Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: Noah Farrell needs to play #1 for this team.

Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: Palmer Campbell and Courtney Mountifield can’t be counted on anywhere in the Panther’s lineup.

Reaction 2 Reactions: Both of these are “extreme overreactions” for a reason. Farrell had a great fall, but Smolyar has proven himself to be a legitimate #1 player. He has the experience edge, and should top the Panther lineup to start the year. On the other side of the BoyWhoCriedWolfMeter (patent pending) Panther fans do not need to stress about Campbell or Mountifield. Both are established players, and both should be able to contribute to this year’s squad, albeit in different parts of the lineup. Speaking of the lineup, lets see what Uncle D3NE thinks the Panther lineup will be come springtime…

Projected Singles Lineup

1. Ari Smolyar, Range #1-#2: Smolyar had one of the roughest finishes to a season in recent memory. With his team’s season on the line in a potential upset bid vs CMS, Ari was up a set and 5-4 vs Butts before dropping the 2^nd and the 3^rd 7-, 7-5. Then, the next day in the 3^rd place match, he was up 5-2 in the 1^st set on Skinner, before falling in that set and eventually the match. That experience could mentally cripple even the strongest of men, but Ari looks like he’s back with a vengeance! Ari ran through Rob Jacobson (Tufts #3), Dan Carpenter (Trinity #1), and Noah Farrell at the Midd Invite, and cruised past Vlad Murad (Colby #2), Noah Bragg (Bowdoin #1), Brian Granoff (Brandeis #1), and finished off the title with an impressive 1&2 thrashing of Carl Reid (Colby #1). Ari could very well be one of the best players in the country, and should be a lock to qualify for Individual NCAAs. The Panthers will need Ari at his best if they are to compete and even take down other top-10 teams.
2. Palmer Campbell, Range #2-#4: This might come as a shock to some of you, but even with a bad fall, Palmer Campbell is still really good at tennis. I know he lost to Rohan Shastri (Williams #3) in the 1^st round of the ITA, but the dude is too talented not to play high up in the Panther lineup. He has the potential to go out and beat any #2 in the country, and I believe Coach Hansen will keep him positioned above the freshman Farrell at least at the beginning of the season. If he starts the spring as he finished the fall, then some lineup tinkering may be in order, and he could fall all the way down to #4, but I fully expect PC to use the offseason and snap out of his funk.
3. Noah Farrell, Range #1-#5: Part of me wanted to give into the overreaction and slot Farrell at #2, but for now I’m leaving him behind the more experienced Panthers. Farrell could easily be one of the nastiest #3’s in the country. His only fall losses came at the hands of top players like Smolyar, Steven Chen (Wesleyan #1), and Reid. He also notched wins against Granoff, Nik Telkedzhiev (Tufts #1), and Mbithi (Trinity #2). Noah has the potential to play #1 for this team down the road, and should be a part of the Panther top 4 who will all be returning next year. Obviously we will need to see how Farrell treats his first winter at college, but if he has the right work ethic I expect big things from Noah, and consider him (along with Steven Chen) as the frontrunners for NE freshman of the year.
4. Jackson Frons, Range #2-#5: Frons continues to amaze me. Sometimes he seems to be one of the best players in the country and just doesn’t miss, other times he practically beats himself. Frons’ talent was once again on display at the fall ITA, where his semifinal run astounded even the most fervent of Panther supporters. On his merry way, Frons sent Carpenter, Yaraghi (Amherst #4), and Telkedzhiev packing. How is that the same player who lost 2&2 to McKinley Grimes (RPI #4) in the 1^st round of the Midd Invite? The Panthers will need the Dr. Jackson personality and not the Mr. Frons personality if they are to equal last year’s semifinal run.
5. Courtney Mountifield, Range #2-#6: This fall has certainly been a roller coaster ride for the British Bomber. After a decent performance at the Midd Invite, Courtney fell to Ryan Bunis (Brandeis #4) in the 1^st round at ITAs, 2&1. After the disappointing ITA showing, Mountfield came out firing at the Boston Invite, dispatching both Telkedzhiev and Campbell in straight sets. We know Courtney has game, last year he beat Carl Reid in their dual match, but like Frons he has to be more consistent if he is to find success anywhere in the Panther lineup. Courtney could play anywhere from #2 to #6 in this lineup, but I see him settling into a role as something close to automatic at the bottom of the Panther lineup.
6. Allen Jackson, Range #5-NA: Any fan of The Blog knows that Mr. Jackson has a super fan out there. According to Mr. Siman, Allen has battled through some injuries and sickness, and has been training harder than ever. This fall, Jackson has some results to back it up. AJ had a good 1^st tournament, notching wins over Max Swerdlick (Skidmore #6), Brad Wong (Tufts #5), and Mountifield. He also took out Howie Weiss (Williams #5) in the 1^st round ofITAs before getting trounced by AntonZykov (Amherst #2). Jackson has come a long ways since his freshman year, but still has a lot to prove. With all of the Panthers’ depth this year, Jackson will have to play his way into a continued lineup spot. As of now, I believe he has the edge over newbies likeSchlanger or de Quant, but I could see Hansen going with something of a revolving door at #6 in early matches until he settles on his guy. Let’s take a look at some of those possible revolving door candidates…
   • Kyle Schlanger, Range #5-NA: After starting the fall red-hot, Schlanger didn’t finish the fall quite as strong as Farrell, but Kyle certainly has a lot of talent. He cruised to a C-Flight win at the Middlebury Invite, picking up quality wins over Ford Traff (Trinity #4) and Lucas Pickering (Skidmore #4). Schlanger also won the B-Flight Doubles at Middlebury, pairing with fellow freshman de Quant. I believe Schlanger is the most likely to step in if any of my projected starting six are deemed unfit for play. Depth is not going to be the Panther’s issue, and I think Schlanger will benefit from playing exhibition matches, as well as playing in many of Middlebury’s early matches when they play two teams in the same day. Don’t be surprised if Kyle is winning at #6 or even #5 by the end of the year.
   • William de Quant, Range #6-NA: De Quant is yet another member of the outstanding 4-person freshman class that Coach Hansen has brought to Vermont this year. While he may not be as physically talented as Farrell or Schlanger, he had a nice fall, cruising by Brian Tan (Tufts #6), and teammates Chris Frost, and Peter Heidrich at the Boston Invitational. Knowing very little about Will, those wins would make him good enough to be a #6 on most teams across the country. However Middlebury is not most teams. De Quant could very well end up with a lineup spot, but for now I think he’s on the outside looking in.
   • Peter Heidrich, Range #6-NA: Heidrich was a doubles specialist through last season, teaming up with Smolyar to comprise what was a decent #3 doubles team. Heidrich is one of three seniors, and one of the Panther tri-captains for 2015, meaning he will have the experience edge over many of these other lineup challengers. A superbreaker loss to Arguello (Brandeis #3), and a run to the D-Flight finals at the Bates Invitational show that Heidrich can compete at #6, but he will likely have to show Coach Hansen a bit more before earning that coveted lineup spot.
   • Hamid Derbani, Range #4-NA: Honestly, this one is a total wildcard. I don’t remember him being in any Panther lineup before this season, though the online roster says he’s a junior from Casablanca, Morocco and TRN says he’s Moroccan and from Florida. He played B-flight at the Middlebury Invite and lost to Kit Green Sanderson (Skidmore #1 and the eventual champ) in the 1^st Rumor has it that Derbani recently transferred. Rumor has it that he has played some professional matches. Rumor has it that he can crack open a walnut with his butt. If any of these rumors are true (personally I hope it’s the last one) then Derbani could not only be a lineup player, but perhaps even an impact player from the start.
     

Schedule Analysis

I like the Panthers’ schedule this year, as I think it goes with the philosophy that Coach Hansen has his team playing their best tennis at the end of the season. While Heinrich (Stevens #1) and Granoff (Brandeis #1) will provide an opening day challenge for Smolyar or whoever plays #1, I don’t see the Panthers having any real difficult matches until ½ way through their spring break trip. Again, I like the idea of easing into the California trip, but at some point the wear and tear of 8 matches in 7 days will take its toll. I’m sure Coach Hansen will monitor the fitness and health of his players during the week, because the Panthers will need everything they have to take down Pomona and Redlands on back-to-back days. The bloggers are big on both Pomona and Redlands this year (which is saying something). While Middlebury hasn’t had too much trouble with either team in the past, this will be our first real chance to see whether this Middlebury team can hold it’s top 10 ranking. The 2^nd tier of DIII is deeper than it’s ever been, and it’s not unfathomable to think the Panthers could fall out of the top-10 this year. I think they find a way to squeak out both matches, but wouldn’t be surprised to see that Pomona match go the distance. As for CMS, let’s just say I will be very surprised to see any team take 4 points off of the Stags until May.

While Tufts and Williams should be better this year (note that Middlebury does not have Wesleyan on their schedule), I still believe they are both still at least one tier below the Panthers. I look forward to previewing these matches in more depth once we get to that time of year, but I think Middlebury escapes Williams and shows the Jumbo fans that they’re not quite ready for NESCAC primetime. The Emory match, sandwiched between Williams and Bowdoin, is very interesting. Emory will be making the trip up to Vermont, which is basically unheard of for any non-NESCAC team at that time of year (even though GAC did the same thing last year). If all goes according to the Panther’s plan, this match would be between two teams who should be in line to host an NCAA regional, and could very likely decide which team has an easier tournament schedule.

Finishing the year, the Panthers have to make a Maine swing, and take on Bates and Bowdoin Both of these teams lost key players, but both have strong freshmen classes. I don’t think Middlebury struggles in either match, though if Bowdoin’s freshmen drastically improve their doubles they will be a team to watch. Finally, we get the pièce de résistance, as Middlebury travels to Amherst to cap off the regular season. In what could very possibly be a match for the regular season NESCAC crown, I think Amherst will come away victorious. In the end, the matchup will come down to which team’s depth has improved more throughout the year. Both teams play good doubles year in and year out, but Amherst is clearly stronger at the top. If Middlebury has any chance of taking the NESCAC crown, they will need to take the lower ½ of the lineup from the Jeffs.

Best-Case Scenario: Middlebury’s depth develops, leaving Coach Hansen with an embarrassment of riches at the bottom of his lineup. The Panthers take out PP and Redlands, squeak by Emory, split regular and postseason meetings with Amherst, earn a top 5 seed, thus avoiding CMS in the quarters, and make a 2^nd straight semifinal run.

Worst-Case Scenario: The graduations prove too costly, Middlebury’s doubles finally regresses, they split their West Coast Pool C matchups, get upset by Williams or Bowdoin, get crushed by Amherst, finish 3^rd in the conference, get placed in Amherst’s NCAA regional and lose handily again in the Sweet 16.

Realistic Prediction: I see Middlebury’s season leaning more towards the best case than the worst-case scenario. I like the Panthers to hold off both Pomona and Redlands, get spanked by CMS, and take care of NESCAC business with the exception of Amherst. I think they end up losing a close 5-4 match to Emory, but it’s not enough to knock the Panthers from hosting a regional. I see them as the 7^th or 8^th best team in the country, and I could definitely see them getting to the NCAA quarterfinals before bowing out to superior CMS or Wash-U type opponent.

One preview down, many more still to go. Whenever Amherst uploads their spring schedule, I will continue with that preview (which I wrote ½ of before noticing the little schedule issue). If Amherst keeps us in the dark, I’ll be back with a Bates team preview in about 10 days. Meanwhile, check out D3Central’s Case Western Team Preview which came out yesterday, or look out for D3Regional’s Coe College Preview tomorrow.