2015 Season Preview: #15 Mary Washington

It’s all about being different.  It’s all about making your own path.  That’s exactly what I’m going to do with my season previews this year.  Will I have an overview and lineup analysis for the players?  Absolutely I will.  But let’s spice things up a little in the ASouth, especially because I have only 4 teams to cover (thanks, D3Regional!).  The first team I get the pleasure of covering is my middle ranked team, the Mary Washington Eagles.  I personally think it’s a pleasure to cover the Eagles.  You almost always know what you’re going to get from them.  This year, it will probably be no different.  But, let’s take an in-depth look at what the Eagles will be bringing to the table and assess afterwards.

Coach: Todd Helbing, lots of seasons

Location: Fredericksburg, VA

Preseason Ranking: #15

Twitter Handle: @UMWMens10s and @MaryWashTennis

Overview

Yes, I get it.  This seems pretty on par with what the other writers have been doing so far, I just put in a shiny introduction as I usually do.  We can’t do a preview without giving a brief overview, so this part is simply necessary.  The Eagles are a team that almost always makes the NCAA Tournament by winning the CAC, where their main competition is Salisbury/Chris Newport.  This year will be no different and I’d probably bet a good amount of money that they’ll make it to the dance once again.  However, just as it’s fairly sure that the Eagles will make the tournament, it’s also fairly sure that they won’t make it past the round of 16 there.  This is another prediction that really, anyone could make.  UMW has always prided themselves on their depth as well as solid doubles play all around.  They do a great job of keeping team chemistry by normally keeping their doubles teams in tact, giving their players a lot of opportunity to feel comfortable with each other on the court.  Not only that, they have one of the best tennis complexes (both outdoors and indoors) I’ve seen in DIII, especially on the East Coast.  On the flip side, the thing that the Eagles never seem to do is find that big upset win.  They get close a lot, but they never seem to get a “bracket-buster” win, for lack of a better term.  Truly, the definition of the Eagles can boil down to one word.  “Solid.”

Lineup Overview

#1 Tyler Carey – I’ve done my underestimating of Carey in the past.  Those days are over now that he’s truly proven himself to be one of the top players in the nation and beaten some top dogs in the Atlantic South.  Carey is a perfect #1 player for the Eagles because my best way to describe him is also “solid.” You can’t really find a weakness in his game other than maybe his serve, which he’s steadily improved over the years.  He’s got a very solid return and net game that makes him a not-too-shabby doubles player as well.  Tyler will be leaned upon heavily this year as there are definitely some potential questions at the other spots in the lineup.

#2 Stratton Gilmore – I don’t really like to take too much of a look into ITAs, especially in the Atlantic South, and that will hold true for most of this Mary Washington team.  However, it is important to note that Gilmore, who finished the year strong last year, took a set off the reigning champion and former #1 player Abhishek Alla.  That’s no small feat.  It shows that Gilmore has continued to work on his game and could be in for a breakout season.  Gilmore was a transfer last year and the Eagles are really crossing their fingers that he can become a force at the #2 spot.  I must say, he’s off to a good start.

#3 Evan Charles – Here’s where the questions start being formed.  Charles has always had a lot of promise, but there just seems to be something missing when he faces top opponents.  He has an array of shots that he uses intelligently, but unfortunately, he has not developed one true weapon that scares his opponents.  Charles had a very disappointing ITA performance, which I’m sure is being chalked up to a fluke.  The senior needs to step up in his final year, because I don’t see anyone else on the team stepping up to this #3 spot.

#4 David Lunding-Johannson – LJ is another guy that I’ve underestimated over the years.  Honestly, I thought he was older.  LJ brings great court sense to both the singles and doubles court, and even utilizes a serve and volley here and there to throw off his opponents.  He’s a smooth player that can definitely be beaten from the baseline, but don’t underestimate those largely flat ground strokes.  He had what I’d call an average year last year at #4, which is where I believe he will be slotted again.  I’d say he turns out to be another average #4 again this year.

#5 Brandon Griffin – Brandon had a surprisingly good year at #6 last year for the Eagles as he came from under the radar to be involved in almost every big UMW match.  The most memorable match for him is obviously losing like 15-13 in a third set tiebreaker against Redlands, but he had multiple other big wins (even on the West  Coast) that make his year memorable.  Griffin will most likely be slotted in at the #5 spot, as he’ll take over for the graduation of Alex Blahkin.

#6 Who Knows? – Given the ITA results from UMW, we don’t really know who’s going to slot in at #6.  It looks like this team is very solid #1-5, but that’s where the drop off might happen.  Whoever has the best offseason is going to get this spot.  They have a couple freshmen that I didn’t think would make the lineup, but you never know.  DIII is where players start making impacts with a lot of hard work.  Let’s hope someone steps up for the Eagles, otherwise they’ll be treading water at the bottom slot.

Doubles – As it always is for the Eagles, doubles will be a pivotal part of their season.  They return a good amount of players from last year, which always helps on the doubles court.  The team of Carey/Charles should be an extremely good spot for them and one that will need to be one of the best if Mary Wash is looking to improve on their ranking from last year.  Being able to slot LJ at #2 gives them some more good experience.  Who knows, maybe they put him at #3 and throw out a Griffin/Gilmore team at #2 like they did a few times last year if I remember correctly.  No matter what, I do think the #3 team will leave a little bit to be desired.

The Schedule – Key Matches and More

As you can see from our new Calendar app, the Mary Washington schedule is already up on the site!  Click on the “Calendar” tab in the dropdowns and you’ll be able to see a full season schedule as they start to trickle in.  Anyways, just some key matches and an overview of what Mary Washington has to do below.

Basically, Mary Washington will most likely win their conference.  Salisbury/CNU have an outside chance at them, but I highly doubt that they’ll challenge them outright in a H2H battle.  But, we’ve seen crazier things happen.  Anyways, UMW basically needs to stay in the top 20 to have even a fighting chance when it comes to the NCAA tournament.  They need to stave off some of these up and coming teams, such as NC Wesleyan, Wesleyan, Redlands, etc.  Luckily (or unluckily) for them, they’ll get NC Wesleyan at home to start off the season.  They’ll also get PP, Cal Lutheran, and Redlands on their annual spring break trip.  You win 2 out of 4 of those matches, you’ll probably stay in the top 20.  Last year, UMW did that and was into the top 20.  It’ll be a bit harder this year.  I’ll refrain from making predictions now because that would be me making uneducated guesses, and we wouldn’t want that now would we.  The Eagles will also get their shots at some top dogs, such as CMU and Hopkins, but I certainly don’t expect much from either of those matches.  Those two teams are in another class.  However, the matches would be big for Tyler Carey in his hopes to get back to the NCAA tournament again this year.

Okay, enough with the schedule.  We’ll have previews for most of UMW’s matches as they come, so there’s a bit too much focus on the matchups and not enough focus on what UMW has to do this year to have a successful season like last year.  Low and behold, I have a fun section below that I’m going to try out…

D3 Atlantic South’s 5 Keys to Mary Washington’s Season

1. Tyler Carey takes another step up – The thing about playing #1 is that you never can say you’re good enough. No matter what (unless you’re John Watts), there’s someone out there that will be able to beat you on any given day.  Tyler Carey had a great year compared to expectations last year.  With a shallower team this year, it’s time for him to step up again.  I don’t see the Eagles taking out a team like Redlands or Pomona without a big win from Carey, and potentially even two.
2. Someone takes hold of the #6 spot – If any of you (and I assume most of you) have played on a team that has a spot that is a guaranteed loss, you know how that feels. I’ve played on them before.  As much as we like to say it doesn’t happen, players count wins and losses.  “Who’s going to win for us today?”  This happens especially in the minds of the underdog teams.  There’s a reason why the underdog always seems to fold under the pressure.  It’s because the players don’t believe.  Well, right now there is a potential hole in the #6 slot for Mary Washington.  Will this be a black hole spot for the Eagles?  Or will someone gain the confidence to step up and increase their teammates faith?
3. Doubles Consistency – I mentioned this briefly, but Mary Washington is never going to come back from a sweep this year against a top 20 team. They will very rarely come back from 2-1 deficits against these teams either.  It’s a fact given the way this team is set up.  Mary Washington excels against teams that slack off in doubles and leave a few spots open for them to pounce.  NCW is a good example of this type of team.  However, the Eagles need to make sure their normally fundamental and strong doubles is up to par this year, because there are a lot of teams gunning for their top 20 spot.
4. Fitness – Yes, yes. This is something that should be on every team’s keys to success.  However, I think fitness will play an extremely important role for the Eagles especially.  Why?  Look at their lineup.  Carey, Charles, and Griffin all play game styles that keep them on the court for a good amount of time.  They have matches against Denison/Stevens/NCW in two days as well as a grueling spring break trip into some ridiculous home-court advantages.  These just happen to be some of their biggest matches of the year.  Will the crew be able to grind it’s way to the end?  Scheduling looks tough, as they’ll play NCW and Redlands as the last legs of those particular trips.  Interesting scheduling here, for sure.
5. Working Home Court – Mary Washington has the opportunity every year to really make statements on their home courts. It’s nice to have a really sick indoor and outdoor complex for tennis!  They’ll play their biggest trap matches on their home courts, including NCW, Bates, Washington and Lee, and most likely, the conference tournament.  Win all those matches and the Eagles should be into the top 20 with a NCAA berth for the umpteenth time in a row.  Lose one, and you get sent into the 20s, clawing your way back into the national conversation.

Conclusion

I hope that was interesting for all y’all, considering I tried my best to keep it fresh.  I’m getting this preview out a bit late (as usual) but at least I had a good weekend as an excuse.  I’m looking forward to UMW’s season.  They are the only team keeping my region with representation in the 10-30 range, which seems strange to me.  Otherwise, I’ll only be able to talk top 10 teams! What a bummer.  I’m rooting for Coach Helbing and the boys from Fredericksburg.  Sometimes, we just want to see those workmanlike teams make a dent in these recruiting class front-runners.  And with that, ASouth, OUT.