Well D3 tennis fans, it is that time of year again. Season previews are upon us and of course I have to be the first one to put up an article because let’s be honest, I overachieve year after year. It is going to be a rough year for the bulk of the Central region so I have a feeling I am going to be rather negative in these posts and fully expect some of the teams I talk about to fall back to D3Regional’s jurisdiction, but since we are going by the preseason ITA rankings, I am stuck doing eight of these previews. Some might be delayed as teams have yet to release their full schedule on their websites, but for now, I have a couple of teams to start with. Without further ado: first up is my favorite whipping boy, Denison University.
Denison University
Coach: Peter Burling
Location: Granville, OH
Preseason ranking: #26
Overview: I have already alluded to this in my first paragraph, but I seem to be a bit hard on these guys, but I feel that it is warranted in some regards. I didn’t even do a season preview on this team last year because they fell out of the rankings. This year they are riding some of the solid successes or close losses from the 2014 season to a preseason ranking so therefore I get the chance to talk about them once again. Regionally they are ranked behind both Whitewater and Coe, but nationally they are ahead of them. Makes sense right? Anyways, Denison looks to replace their top two singles players from last season in an effort to stay in the top 30. While they brought in a number of decent freshmen, I don’t see any of them to be in the top half of the lineup. Because of this, Denison will have to go back to their tried and true formula of beating teams with their depth and doubles play. I am predicting a pretty tough season for the Big Red and the future may be even darker as more key players graduate after this year.
Lineup Analysis
Key Losses: Juan Guerra (1 singles/1 dubs) and Andrew Marczak (2 singles/2 dubs) to graduation; Graham Gettel (5/6 singles) not on roster
Key Additions: Jamie McDonald, Jonathan Harrison, Ryan Brown, Jack O’Konieski (all freshmen)
1 Singles: Casey Cempre (senior). Probably one of the nicest kids in Division 3 tennis so I have nothing but good things to say about Casey. Unfortunately that quality doesn’t win you tennis matches and I expect him to struggle mightily if he is slotted in the top spot this year. He rarely will beat himself and can cause some guys fits with his loopy forehands and then flattening out a backhand. All it takes to beat him though is someone who can be patient and then use whatever weapon they have against him. Casey doesn’t really have a weapon and his serve is weak making it tough for him. He lost in the second round of the ITAs and had a rough Oberlin Invite tourney that doesn’t seem to give me much confidence in him going forward. Casey was a great 4/5 singles player, but he is three years removed from being at that position.
2 Singles: Grant Veltman (senior). Veltman has bounced around the lineup during his career at Denison and I have a feeling that is because he is pretty streaky. He has the potential to beat some top guys, but also can lose to a few that he shouldn’t. This is evident in his fall ITA tournament compared to his other fall results. At the ITAs, he fell to a Chicago freshman like everyone else, but then took out some great competition in the backdraw including Carswell from Wash U. Carswell was clearly a shell of himself, but either way, that is a great win for Veltman. I believe Veltman will have average success at the two spot, but can’t be counted on for the most part. If he pulls out a win against a good team, that is just a bonus.
3 Singles: Jackson O’Gorman-Bean (junior). He wasn’t involved in any play this fall, but since he is a junior, I am assuming he was abroad for the semester. I think O’Gorman-Bean probably has the most upside of anyone in the lineup, but has yet to prove his talent if he features this high in the lineup. He has a great record at 5 and 6 singles, but obviously the competition gets higher as you move up. His game is technically very pretty so you can see his ability in that, but it will be interesting to see how he fairs this season. Similarly to Veltman, I believe he will win some big matches against the top teams, but cannot be counted on every match like he was last season at 5/6 singles.
4 Singles: Jamie McDonald (freshman). I don’t have a lot to go on with McDonald as he is a freshman and only has a few college matches under his belt. He had a good ITA by making it through to the quarters of the back draw. The 4, 5, and 6 singles spot are going to be very important for Denison this season and that is a lot to ask of a freshman to have that kind of pressure, but I think he will be a solid player for the team. He finished as a 2-star recruit, but his final ranking (313) would have put him as a 3-star without question.
5 Singles: Shankur Rajupet (senior). Oh Shankur! He is one of the biggest question marks in the Central region if you ask me. He has the potential to be so good, but rarely played in the last few seasons. Two years ago, he made the consolation finals of the ITAs which might not seem like a big deal, but with the depth of that tourney, it really is. Last year he didn’t even break the lineup for any dual match so I have no idea why that would be. My gut tells me he either has had issues with Coach Burling or other troubles outside of tennis. He had a below average fall, but did take Kevin Chu to three sets in the second round of ITAs. With his lack of dual match experience/play, it is hard to say how he will do this season.
6 Singles: Jeff LoDuca (senior), Owen Smith (sophomore), or a Freshman. This spot is up for grabs. Really 4-6 singles is up for grabs so I am kind of guessing as to whom I think will be at these spots. I would probably give the edge to LoDuca since he is a senior, but I could very easily see Rajupet out of the lineup once again moving LoDuca up to 5 and then 6 being Smith or one of the new guys. This spot needs to be a win for Denison and against the top teams, I just don’t see it happening.
In terms of doubles, I hate to speculate because it is impossible to tell. Veltman will partner with someone at the top and Cempre is a great 2 or 3 dubs partner. Outside of those two, it could be anyone. Rajupet will most likely feature with someone and I could even see him with Veltman at the top spot. That has to be a bit unnerving for a team that needs to be up 2-1 after doubles in order to beat the guys that are ranked closely to them. They are a very disciplined doubles team and are able to sweep teams that are not prepared for this (see Bowdoin last year). Doubles will be even more important this season as the depth isn’t as strong in singles with players moving up in the lineup.
Schedule Analysis
http://denisonbigred.com/sports/mten/2014-15/schedule
The Denison schedule is like a mine field for a team that is currently nationally ranked, but plays so many wanna be/could be/might be ranked opponents I have a hard time believing they will stay that way. They open up against Chicago which was a really close match last season. That match made us all ask the typical question of “Is Chicago over hyped” as well as “Are we underestimating Denison.” This time around, I don’t see those questions being asked simply because Chicago is too good. After that, things will get real interesting.
A very important weekend pits the Big Red against Mary Washington, NC Wes, and Stevens in a 36 hour span. Mary Washington will pose too big of a threat, but a resurgent NC Wes and a solid #40 Stevens team both have a shot to move up the proverbial ladder. Denison needs to go 2-1 and I don’t see it happening. If they can salvage one win, they will stay in the newly minted top 40 national rankings instead of the previously used top 30. Next up they will take on Kzoo @ Kzoo where they should get a win. A trip out west against more teams that are dangerous to a slipping national power that include Tufts (#29 nationally), Sewanee (#7 in Asouth), Salisbury (#9 in ASouth), and Trinity CT (#22 nationally). So much for scheduling a few cupcakes to get a win or two. Kudos to Coach Burling though as history shows we have been critical of his light schedule. This year might have been the wrong year to make it tough!
Upon their return from California, they get into their conference season where in years past was just a competition for second place between Depauw and Denison (Kenyon getting first). If only it were that easy this season. I have pegged some potential surprise teams in the NCAC and I think one of them could nip the Big Red this year. Kenyon and Depauw are both down as well so that is a bonus, but are ahead of Denison talent wise. Oberlin should be dangerous this year if all the talent they have on campus play the entire season. I think Denison would be thrilled with a 3rd place finish in the conference, but I am going to pick the upset early on and say they fall to Oberlin either in the regular season or the conference tournament.
In closing, this season reminds me a lot of the Denison of two years ago in that they will fall to a previously unranked team early and never be able to recover. With such a senior laden team, the Big Red better hit the recruiting trail hard or they are going to become an afterthought sooner rather than later. I have Denison as one of many teams in the Central region who are teetering on disappearing, but out of them all, the Big Red are of most concern. Show me wrong boys!
“I have Denison as one of many teams in the Central region who are teetering on disappearing, but out of them all, the Big Red are of most concern.”
Denison is of greater concern than Kalamazoo? Or have they already disappeared? (That facility must really feel like Kane’s Xanadu, at least until summer nationals.)
Kalamazoo is already gone in my book. They haven’t had a national ranking in far too long and have hovered around #10 in the region because they are smart schedulers. They haven’t beaten a team ranked above them in 3-4 years and haven’t played a team ranked closely below them in the past two years which has held their ranking. So with no chance of losing to a lower ranked team, it seems as if they should stay where they are. Take a look at their schedule again this year. They play a number of teams above them, but none that are close to them. I guess you could count Luther who is #15. Kzoo is only relevant because their conference is terrible at the moment (or always has been) and they have won is something like 77 years in a row.