Through the Eyes of D3Northeast: The Elite 8

VOTE D3NE! THE TOTALS ARE STARTING TO MAKE ME SAD…

Hi everybody (hi doctor D3NE), it’s time to give you all another different perspective on this year’s Elite 8. Don’t you all worry your pretty little eyes, we’ll be doing a boatload of Joint Previews over the weekend, but for now I’m continuing with each writer’s personal take on the Elite 8. As with most of you, I’m of the belief that this is CMS’s year to win and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it. While, of course, that isn’t totally true, I’ve decided to write my Elite-8 take on CMS vs. the field. I’ve ranked each of the 7 teams not names CMS at the every position and given a VERY BRIEF description as to why. At the end of the article, I’ve averaged all the numbers out to come up with AN EXTREMELY RUDEMENTARY list of which team will present the biggest challenge to the Stags. Before jumping into my rankings, let’s just remind everyone of CMS’s vaunted lineup…

#1 DOUBLES: Dorn/Wood

#2 DOUBLES: Butts/Kotrappa

#3 DOUBLES: Pereverzin/Marino

#1 SINGLES: Wood

#2 SINGLES: Dorn

#3 SINGLES: Marino

#4 SINGLES: Butts

#5 SINGLES: Morkovine

#6 SINGLES: Pereverzin

 

#1 DOUBLES

1) Putterman/Bush, 2) Krimbill/Klawitter, 3) Fritz/Reindel, 4) Buxbaum/Walsh,

5) Ruderman/Wagner, 6) Johnston/Lebovitz, 7) Deuel/Moreno

Putterman/Bush: 5-0 against teams on this list should speak for itself. Lucky for these 2 that Whitman is out of the tournament…

Krimbill/Klawitter: Wins over most teams on this list, with 2 losses coming from the only team above them.

Fritz/Reindel: Beaten Midd’s #1 team twice, and were the best team in the NE. That still only gets them to the middle of the list

Buxbaum/Walsh: Up and down, but riding quite the hot streak to the end of the year. A win in the fall over the Amherst team isn’t enough to push them above the Jeffs. Their good season makes up for the loss to Ruderman/Wagner.

Ruderman/Wagner: Also have 3 losses to teams on this list. Emory dubs towards the bottom of the lists could become a theme. They do have wins over this list, but I after their performance against Kenyon they’re relegated to the bottom ½.

Johnston/Lebovitz: 2 losses to Amherst, but a big hitting team with a very high ceiling.

Deuel/Moreno: 3 losses on this list, but playing significantly better dubs of late.

#2 DOUBLES

1) Mayer/Haugen, 2) Healy/Reinbold, 3) Lim/Brown, 4) Jones/Campbell,

5) Revzin/Yaraghi, 6) Carswell/Cogan, 7)Isaacs/(Bajoria or Adams)

Mayer/Haugen: Plenty of wins at #2 dubs, but the best were very early in the year. Will need to regain that early form if they’re going to take down this group

Healy/(Reinbold/Drougas): When healthy, arguably the best team in the group. Early season losses have them at a disadvantage, but late season performance increases their stock. Healy/Reinbold still slot in around here, but may be behind Hopkins.

Lim/Brown: We all know ASouth thinks about this team when he’s playing with Downtown Lester Brown, and while they might not strike fear into your hearts, they will rarely beat themselves. Lim plays with fire, and Brown is a wall. However this team was better last year.

Jones/Campbell: I’m really trying to check my NE bias here. This team won small college nationals, how can they be 4^th? Because they’ve been slipping of late. Losses to RPI, Amherst, and Williams have left the once untouchable team, well, touchable.

Carswell/Cogan: This team has not done anything really wrong, they just don’t do it for me. Carswell in doubles is a totally different animal, and I’m always wary of a young team at NCAAs.

Revzin/Yaraghi: Probably a toss-up with Carswell/Cogan, and this team scored a win against Midd in the NESCAC finals. Their recent loss to Bowdoin was troubling, and hopefully for Jeffs fans is not a harbinger of things to come.

Isaacs/(Bajoria/Adams): First thing’s first, I don’t even know who the team is going to be. These guys have switched off for most of the year, but it seemed like Isaacs/Adams were the group pre NCAAs. Either way, this is not a spot Emory will expect to win against Amherst, or most teams for that matter.

#3 DOUBLES

1) Chu/Hirsh, 2) Garcia/Joachim, 3) Solimano/Dale, 4) Halpern/Lavoie-Perusse,

5) Fojtasek/Stuerke, 6) Curtis/Niess, 7) Smolyar/Heidrich

Chu/Hirsh: Only 3 losses on the year, which is much better than the rest of these teams. Close loss to Hop, and a 9-7 loss to Butts/Kotrappa show this team to be one of the best in the country.

Garcia/Joachim: This a very good #3 team with some bad results of late. They lost to Swarthmore (UPSET ALERT) twice. They have the experience, but like most of Hop, had better results last season. Although they beat WashU in Feb, their late season play moves them down.

Solimano/Dale: Newish team, who have good results together. Solimano is a great doubles player, but he will miss having Revzin’s firepower beside him.

Halpern/(Lavoi-Perusse/Adams): Again a similar issue for Emory, no true established hierarchy. That can be a good problem to have, but it also leaves teams susceptible to NCAA nerves. Halpern gives any team a shot.

Fojtasek/Stuerke: Nice win over WashU, but more than a couple losses overcompensate. Gritty team, as proven vs. CMU last weekend. Probably Case’s worst doubles spot.

Curtis/Niess: Classic Trinity problem. So many wins, but over terrible teams. They had a decent Indoors and a terrible Spring Break Walla Walla. Probably about even with the Emory team.

Smolyar/Heidrich: Just mediocre, all season long. Can play a great pro-set, and beat any of these teams. Wouldn’t beat a single one more than 3 out of 10 times.

#1 SINGLES

1) Ruderman, 2) Fritz, 3) Buxbuam, 4) Krimbill, 5) Deuel, 6) Johnston, 7) Putterman

Ruderman: Playing out of his gourd right now. He has the best slew of wins outside of California, and I cannot wait for his matchup with Fritz.

Fritz: D3West thinks I’m too high on Fritz. He has avenged two of his only 3 losses (with the 3^rd being Wood) and has the sweetest backhand in the country. Unfortunatly he’ll 1^st matchup with Ruderman, the only player above him on this list.

Buxbaum: Easy schedule. Only real D3 losses come to Ruderman. Above Krimbill bc of direct, though I’d call that a pretty fair fight.

Krimbill: Can’t believe he’s this low, but 3 losses to Rudeman and Buxbaum force my hand.

Deuel: Direct loss to Krimbill. Only other losses to Wood and Lipscomb. He will be heavily relied on if Trin is to upset WashU.

Johnston: Big game style, can hit you off the court. Tough matchups from here on out, although does matchup up somewhat well with Wood

Putterman: Doesn’t deserve to be the #1 on his own team. Great player, has come up with past NCAA goods, but still the bottom of this list.

#2 SINGLES

1) Carswell, 2) Drougas, 3) Halpern, 4) Jones, 5) Haugen, 6) Hwang, 7)Dale

Note: Very tough in this group. All have the capability to beat each other.

Carswell: #1 obviously. Thank goodness he got into NCAAs and can show D3Central just how good he is on a national level.

Drougas: Big win last weekend, has directs on this list, is capable of a stinker.

Halpern: Have to put him below Drougas due to the direct loss, but playing very well right now. Never go against Marshall Henderson

Jones: Incredible competitor. Hasn’t lost at 2 (moved up in April). Senior going out with a bang. I think #’s 2-6 on this list are incredibly even.

Haugen: It’s kind of unfair that he’s this low, and I’m sure D3West would put him above Jones, but losses to Cummins and Bush keep him from the top group.

Hwang: 2 losses to Halpern. Always a threat, but has some very stiff competition from this bunch.

Dale: Had a great start to the season after a horrific fall. He took down every #2 in sight, including Joe Dorn, but he has lost against the other best #2’s that he’s played including Yasgoor and Jones. Tight group here.

#3 SINGLES

1) Solimano, 2) Bush, 3) Mosetick, 4) Campbell, 5) Moreno, 6) Brown, 7) Klawitter

Solimano: Call me crazy, but he hasn’t lost a DIII match yet this year. Directs and indirects abound over this list. Some will argue for Bush, I think that semifinal would be an incredible matchup.

Bush: the frosh has some losses, but has direct wins against Klaw and people playing above him (position-wise)

Mosetick, super loss to Bush, crush Klaw, splitsville with Tanner, but has been a mystery lately.

Campbell, Ups and downs, but all NE fans know his ceiling. Belongs in the middle of this list, but could swing either way.

Moreno playing better of late, not an underdog against most of these guys, just not necessarily a favorite.

Brown, Where has the former #1 gone? Playing like a solid 3. Makes others beat him, but simply put isn’t playing his best tennis.

Klawitter: Known more for his dubs, and has a few direct losses to guys on this list or below. Senior experience could be a factor.

#4 SINGLES

1) Skinner, 2) Noack, 3) Wagner, 4) Dubin, 5) Smolyar, 6) Zykov, 7) Reinbold

Skinner: Former ITA champ at #4? Yes please! Rough Cali trip, but has cleaned up his game and looks to be the closest thing Butts has to competition.

Noack: Weird game, great results, will always make you beat him. If you don’t play your best, you will lose. Senior with that sort of game/attitude, love it. Took Butts to a super earlier this year…

Wagner: Crushed Dubin. Obviously has a big ceiling, will be the favorite vs. Amherst

Dubin: ASouth loves Dubin, but losses to Noack and Wagner leave him safely in the middle of the list. There is probably a jump between Dubin and the rest of this list.

Smolyar: Crushed at 5, but 4 is a new breed. Though he has a number of wins, the direct Zykov win might be his best.

Zykov: West likes Zykov, but direct loss to Smolyar. Before NCAAs he lost 3 of his last 4 matches. Definitely talented, but the freshman will have something to prove next week.

Reinbold: Direct losses to multiple on this list, and a couple of the 5’s. I’ll keep throwing gas on the “nobody believes in us” fire, simply bc I do not believe they will beat my Panthers!

#5 SINGLES

1) Mayer, 2) Yaraghi, 3) Kratky, 4) Fojtasek, 5) Szczurek, 6) Lim, 7) Mountifield

Mayer: Not Yaraghi 1^st? D3Central will freak. Mayer’s year has been better, especially with Yaraghi’s occasional goose-egg.

Yaraghi: See above

Kratky: Just another underappreciated part of the force that is WashU singles

Fojtasek: HUGE WIN FOR JAMES! Confidence at an all time high, even for a frosh.

Szczurek: Had his ups and downs this year. Senior experience keeps him higher than Lim. Only Eagle senior (in the singles lineup) and therefore has some added incentive/pressure.

Lim: So low? ASowth will freak! But this is his place based on results. He could beat Wood on his best day, but that just doesn’t happen with ANY regularity. Almost uaranteed to split sets.

Mountifield: Sorry Courtney, a mediocre season won’t go far in this company

#6 SINGLES

1) Reindel, 2) Chu, 3) Weissler, 4) Adams, 5) Frons, 6) Healey, 7) Curtis

Reindel: Has become automatic. One of the most improved players over the past year.

Chu: If Reindel is automatic, Chu is the next best thing. Only loss is to Pereverzin.

Weissler: Weissler’s knock is his limited match play this year. Has a fall win over Reindel, but you see how much stock I’m putting in that.

Adams: Playing better than Frons of late even though Frons beat him early this spring.

Frons: Streaky play. See above.

Healy: His huge win last week moves him from the bottom.

Curtis: had a nice year with wins over NO ONE! Definitely a solid #6, but we’re not talking about solid. We’re talking about the elite!

 

Here’s how my scoring system works. Again there are issues here, see further down for more in depth scoring. If a team has the best player at a position, they get 1 point, worst player at a position is 7 points, therefore the fewer total points the better the overall team. Confused? Good!

TOTAL SCORE

#2 WashU (1+6+1+7+1+2+2+3+2) = 25 points

#3 Amherst (3+5+3+4+7+1+6+2+1) = 32 points

#4 Middlebury (6+4+7+6+4+4+5+7+5) = 48 points

#6 Emory (5+7+4+1+3+3+3+5+4) = 35 points

#7 Trinity Tx (7+1+6+5+5+5+1+1+7) = 38 points

#8 Hopkins (4+3+2+2+6+6+4+6+3) = 36 points

#9 Case Western (2+2+5+3+2+7+7+4+6) = 38 points

This list tells us that WashU has the best chance of challenging CMS, followed by Amherst. However, obviously some of these players are not a full point better than others, there are larger and smaller gaps between different players. If we gave each player a ranking out of 10 (totally subjective of course) the rankings would probably come out a bit differently. Because each person would come up with their own set of rankings, I’ll leave the point systems up to you. But I’d love to chat about other people’s rankings if they’d like. Feel free to email me D3Northeast@gmail.com or tweet @D3Northeast.

The one other thing I will say is that CMS is clearly stronger at some positions than others. They have proven that 3 and 4 singles are virtual locks, so if we were really matching up my rankings with CMS, we would discount the #3 and #4 singles spots. We would also put less weight on #1 singles, #2 doubles, and #3 doubles because they have been almost as good as Marino/Butts in singles. The rankings that are most important are #1 doubles, #2 doubles, #3 doubles, #1 singles, #2 singles, #5 singles, and #6 singles. I would place twice the importance on #1 doubles, and #’s 2/5/6 singles because they are where CMS is “most vulnerable”. In that case, the lists look like

TOTAL SCORE

#2 WashU (2+6+1+7+2+6+4) = 28 points

#2 Amherst (6+5+3+4+14+4+2) =38 points

#4 Middlebury (12+4+7+6+8+14+10) = 61 points

#6 Emory (10+7+4+1+6+10+8) = 46 points

#7 Trinity Tx (14+1+6+5+10+2+14) = 52 points

#8 Hopkins (8+3+2+2+12+12+6) = 45 points

#9 Case Western (4+2+5+3+4+8+12) =38 points

With these few manipulations, we have big jumps by both Case and Hopkins (both of whom are potential CMS opponents before the finals). We can see that Case benefits from dropping their weakest positions, 3&4 singles, while Hopkins benefits from getting their stronger positions rewarded. Who knows, maybe the Spartans magic might continue. FOR THE RECORD, I’m not saying that Hop is going to beat CMS, or that Case is going to beat Midd, let alone CMS, but I thought this was interesting. If you all are still reading by now, you deserve a cookie.

VOTE FOR D3NE!!!