NE NCAA Individuals Update

Hello again all you Northeastern hooligans. It’s time for another rousing round of everyone’s favorite game, hide the pickle, I mean, try to predict who will make NCAA’s! While Headmaster ASouth has been doing a wonderful job with his Pool C updates, the individual stuff falls on us lesser regional writers (Just sayin, in this Harry Potter metaphor, D3West is Snape, D3Central is Binns, and I’m pretty clearly a badass McGonagall). Here’s how this is gonna work, I’m listing the players, followed by 3 separate sets of parentheses. The 1^st parentheses lists a number, this is the most recent ITA regional ranking. The 2^nd set of parentheses contains the names of the player’s ranked wins since April 10^th (the last set of rankings). The 3^rd and final set of parentheses included the names of the player’s losses since April 10^th. Everybody all nice and confused? Good, let’s give it a go. Doubles first, as it’s MUCH less complicated.

 

Doubles

Hok, so here’s the deal. There are realistically only 5 doubles teams that have a shot at making NCAA’s this year. They are the #1 teams from Amherst, Skidmore, Colby, Bates, and Middlebury. If I had to guess, I’d say that Amherst, Skidmore are safe, Bates is kinda sorta safe, and the final spot will come down to Midd or Colby. Let’s take a look at the big 5, and then I’ll give my reasons as to why the next best teams have no shot.

Fritz&Reindell, Amherst (1)

(W’s Bates, Bowdoin, Trinity, Wesleyan, Midd)

(L’s Williams (Micheli/Harron))

RECAP: This Amherst Team has been sitting pretty atop the region for quite some time now. They took their first and only regional loss to the newly formed Williams team of Micheli/Harron. These guys are as close to a lock as anyone, especially considering they have direct wins over Bates and Midd.

Loutsenko & Knight, Skidmore (2)

(W’s Williams, 8-0!, Stevens, and Bard)

(L’s Midd)

RECAP: The Thoroughbreds did what they had to do, and they split their matches with Williams and Midd. This team has the added bonus of fall fame. Loutsenko and Knight won their ITA in the fall, and haven’t let their ranking slip since. Even with their loss to Midd, the Green and Yellow should be well represented at Nationals.

Reid & Murad, Colby (3)

(W’s Tufts and Conn)

(L’s Bowdoin and Williams)

RECAP: Now we get into iffier territory. The Mules started off their season well, but over the past month Reid and Murad have slipped more than any of the other contenders. Both losses are crucial, as both give many of the other contenders indirect wins over the Mules. It’s tough to say that Midd and Bates should get in ahead of Colby, considering that the Mules have direct wins over both, but that is a definite possibility at this point.

Berg & Planche, Bates (4)

(W’s Tufts, Williams, Brandeis, Bowdoin, Trinity, and Wesleyan)

(L’s Amherst)

RECAP: Getting knocked out of NESCACs may have been a blessing in disguise for these two. Berg and Planche have had arguably the best past 3 weeks of any of the contenders (save perhaps for Amherst). The Bobcats’ win over Bowdoin was huge because it gives them an indirect over both Colby and Midd. Even though Colby’s duo beat this pair earlier this year, Bates now has the stronger resume.

Johnston & Lebovitz, Midd (5)

(W’s Wesleyan, Trinity, RPI, Skidmore, and Tufts)

(L’s Amherst and Bowdoin)

RECAP: Johno and Lebo present the committee with their most interesting case. They suffered a couple of bad losses earlier in the year including a Kjelberg-less NCW team. HOWEVER, that was out of region, and since April 10^th the Panthers have made a strong case for the NCAA hopes, including a big win over Loutsenko/Knight. The big question is how much late season work is going to count here. The committee can put their decision behind Colby’s direct wins over Bates and Midd, or they can look at recent play. Either way, Midd is clearly a bubble team.

 

This next group of teams have all played or changed their way into oblivion…

Jones/Campbell, Midd (6)

(L’s RPI)

Recap: These are your Small College Nationals winners from the fall. It’s a crime that they were playing #2 all year, but the fact of the matter is that they still had a chance until about 2 weeks ago. Absorbing losses is one thing, but taking a direct loss against another #2 team was the kiss of death for these Panthers.

Williams DOUBLES (switched from Micheli/Schidlovsky to Micheli/Harron) Since the switch, the newly minted Ephs’ team scored wins over Amherst, Bowdoin, and Colby. Those are two great wins, and if this team had been playing together all year long they might be in the contender discussion. But the NCAA will not consider a team that has only played 4 matches together. While there are still NESCACs to play, I do not believe that the Micheli/Harron can be considered for NCAAs. Please correct me if you know otherwise. Even if they ran through Tufts and Amherst, they still have a pesky loss to Trinity on their resume.

Bowdoin DOUBLES (switched from King/Wolstencraft to King/Trinka) Since the switch, the new Polar Bear team has wins over Colby, Midd, and Stevens. While two of those three wins are impressive, King/Trinka also took losses at the hands of Bates and Williams. This duo is in a similar situation to the Williams team above. Not enough matches together, and even if they did their results are not quite spectacular enough to vault them into the NCAA discussion.

 

As of this second, I’m taking Amherst, Skidmore, Bates, and Middlebury as the 4 NCAA doubles teams, with Colby left as the alternate. However, Middlebuy has a chance to either solidify or kill their spot this weekend. I will update and make my final predictions after NESCACs.

Singles

As I said in my intro, singles is a totally different cat to skin. In my crazy warped beliefs, there are 5 who seem “locked” in for a bid. Those 5 are Fritz, Wu, Micheli, Reid, and Loutsenko. After that, I really have no idea who the final 3 will be. I’ve listed everyone who I think has a REALISTIC chance below. If you think I’m shorting your #1 (or in some cases your #2) please let me know. One obvious omission is Luke Trinka. He unfortunately has to eat all of Bragg’s losses, and by that alone he shouldn’t get in. Piled on top of that he has lost to a couple of people below him, so I don’t believe he will get to NCAAs. Still, the sophomore’s an All-American, not a bad year. Mini recaps will follow each player. If you have questions about anyone, please comment or tweet at me. Tweeting is a quicker way to have the conversation…

 

(1) Fritz, Amherst

(W’s Berg, Bragg, Carpenter) (L’s Johnston and Micheli)

RECAP: Nothing to see here. Joey has a real shot at winning an NCAA title. His only losses came at the hands of the two biggest hitters in the region. His bid was locked up weeks ago.

(2) Wu, NYU

(W’s none) (L’s none)

RECAP: Good for Steven Wu. After his finals ITA loss to Loutsenko, I told ASouth that I didn’t think we would here Wu’s name again all year long. Boy was I wrong. The kid has played wonderful tennis all spring, and playing a softer schedule was a great way to keep his national ranking. Wu’s a shoo(in)

(3) Carpenter, Trinity

(W’s none) (L’s Johnston, Granoff, Fritz, Micheli, and Berg)

RECAP: Tough sledding for DC. Since his #3 ranking (which I very much questioned at the time) Dan has not won a match. He’ll get another shot at Bragg in the NESCAC quarters on Friday, but unless he somehow beats Bragg, Johnston, and Fritz, I don’t believe Carpenter will be going to Claremont.

(4) Micheli, Williams

(W’s Berg, Fritz, Carpenter, and Bragg) (L’s Loutsenko and Reid)

RECAP: Matty Ice has done enough in his senior campaign that he should finally get his moment in the sun. Wins over 3 top 8 players and zero bad losses are a recipe for success. Even with a loss to Glickman later this week, Micheli should have booked his ticked to Cali.

(5) Reid, Colby

(W’s Bragg, Glickman, and Micheli) (L’s none)

RECAP: I don’t think there has been a more impressive freshman in the NE than Carl Reid. He and Murad have helped take Colby up a tier in the NESCAC, and with the help of Coach Wang Carl has become one of the best players in the region. His team’s season is done, but he has the rare opportunity to make NCAAs for both singles and doubles as a freshman.

(6) Dale, Amherst

(W’s Planche and Harron) (L’s Jones and***absorbs all of Fritz’s L’s)

RECAP: This is where we get into some funny business. Dale has had a wonderful season, but he is not the #1 player for his team. He does have some good wins of late, but he also lost to Branter Jones last weekend. He will likely get another shot at BJ this weekend, but will have to take down Harron before that. If Dale beats both Harron and Jones, I believe he gets in. HOWEVER, an argument could be made against him seeing as Fritz recently took a couple of losses. I think Dale will get in, but his NESCAC performance will likely push his fate either way.

(7) Zhang, MIT

(W’s Perez x2) (L’s to Granoff)

RECAP: Black Swan Tennis! Where is the tough schedule? Zhang’s wins over Berg and Trinka came before the last rankings, and he hasn’t done a ton to push himself forward. That being said, Zhang didn’t do much to hurt himself either. His loss to Granoff is not terrible, but a win there would have secured his spot to NCAAs. Edwin has just about as good an argument as anyone. My gut tells me that he might get one of the final spots, but his anti-ITA tweets might be frowned upon by the NCAA selection committee.

(8) Bragg, Bowdoin

(W’s none) (L’s to Fritz, Reid, Johnston, Berg, Micheli, Heinrich)

RECAP: Tough end of the season for Noah. He didn’t get any one win that he needed along the way, and took a direct loss to both Johnston and Heinrich (two fellow guys gunning for one of the final spots). Noah will be on the outside looking in come selection time, and likely took any shot Trinka had down with him.

(9) Loutsenko, Skidmore

(W’s Micheli and Johnston) (L’s none)

RECAP: Was there any one body part more valuable to a team than Loutsenko’s wrist this spring? Once healthy, Oliver took down Micheli and helped his team upset the defending champs. He also routinely took down Johnston and hasn’t lost since returning from injury. Keeping his ITA win in mind, Oliver should be a lock for NCAAs.

(11) Johnston, Midd

(W’s Carpenter, Bragg, Fritz, and Glickman) (L’s Micheli, LaBarre, Loutsenko).

RECAP: Johno is one of the more interesting cases left on the board. Everyone knows he has the game to win an NCAA championship (although the fitness is another story) but he has taken some puzzling losses this year. Since the last rankings Alex lost to Micheli, Loutsenko, and LaBarre. Now, I have no problem with the 1^st two, but the LaBarre loss might be the match that keeps Johnston out of the tournament. Johnston is squarely on the bubble in both singles and doubles, and NESCACs should play a role in deciding Alex’s NCAA future.

(12) Heinrich, Stevens

(W’s Sherpa, Bragg, and CRUSHED a bunch of people you’ve never heard of) (L’s none)

RECAP: I won’t plead Mattgic’s case here, but I might be forced to after NESCACs. Heinrich has won all of his matches since the April 10^th rankings, and should easily go past Trinka, Carpenter, and Bragg. That unfortunately leaves him one spot out. HOWEVER, he does have the direct win over Zhang from the fall. I know fall results aren’t supposed to count as much, but this could end up being a deal breaker. I know A-South will be rooting hard for to see some Heinrich Maneuver at NCAAs.

(20) Jones, Midd (W’s Harron, Sherpa, and Dale) (L’s none, absorbs Johnston’s losses, AND absorbs Campbell’s losses while playing #3)

RECAP: First of all let me say that Jones is the ultimate competitor in my eyes. It pains me to say that I don’t think we’ll be seeing the Middlebury captain at NCAAs this year. The good news for Brantner is that it looks like he’ll finally get to make the team run that has eluded both he and the Panthers over the past 3 years. I know Jones would trade all his individual accolades for a team win, so I hope this is the year for the Panthers. Playing #3 is simply too tough, and Midd’s #1 and #2 have suffered too many losses for Jones to get in.
(23) Granoff, Brandeis

(W’s Carpenter, Glickman, Berg, Zhang)  (L’s none)

RECAP: I wish I could say that Granoff has played his way into NCAAs. Unfortunately, I think he might have been too far removed from the top guys to move all they way into the top 8. He does have some big wins, including 2 top 7 players. Brian presents the committee with an interesting application, and if this year’s selection crew are big on end of season play, Brian might be their guy. My gut says that Brian gets close, but ends up just out of nationals.

 

YIKES! Well there you have it. If I had to choose my singles guys right now, they’d be (in order) Wu, Fritz, Loutsenko, Reid, Micheli, Heinrich, Johnston, Dale (with Zhang as the alternate). As I said in the doubles, there is still a lot of important tennis to be played this weekend. I will update and make my final picks after NESCACs.