Ojai Recap

Starting off with Ballou, let it be known that I f***ed up and didn’t get his stuff out yesterday or early this morning when he sent it to me. Here it is:

Ojai Valley, Where the Stags Run Free in 2014

Well just read the title that I put. Article Done! Okay, okay, not by a long shot. D3West and I will be covering the rest of the Ojai along with what this means for NCAA tournament bids.

Well, I won’t lie and say I didn’t miss playing this tournament again this year. It was a pleasure playing at my past home courts of Libby Park where I use to have the privilege to practice. I wasn’t able to make it up there today because of small accident that involved some college students not knowing their limits when drinking adult beverages (I knew this was going to happen when you said there was a party). But without wasting anymore time, let’s get down to the nitty gritty part of how CMS was able to walk away with a lot of shiny hardware and confidence from the Ojai.

Singles Semifinals

Warren Wood def. Skyler Butts  6-0 5-7 6-2

Well I don’t think I could have called this one any more perfectly than I did last night in my predictions of today. Wood and Butts went 3 sets and Wood came out on top with the victory. I thought they knew each others games too well and that seems to be the case when looking at the score where Woods came out firing, Butts established a game plan in the second and then Wood’s countered that and put the match away in the 3^rd set.

Nikolas Marino def. David Konstantinov  6-7(3) 6-3 6-3

Marino is known for these battles, and he sure does love them. I had a feeling that this one again was going to be close as can be and it certainly seems that way. Marino did his normal thing and discombobulated his opponent with his counter punching strokes. While standing still, he’s good, but while when on the dead run, he seems to be even more capable of conjuring up ridiculous shots. In all honesty, who cares about how he plays his game, this kid wins and he has proven it over and over again.

Singles Final

Wood def. Marino 6-4 5-7 6-2

EXACT same scenario as I wrote about Wood beating Butts. Woods comes out and gets the 1^st set, Marino gets a plan to counter, but Wood is just the better player and can turn it on and come away with the ultimate W. Just like it did for me, I’m sure this tournament will give him a lot of confidence going into NCAA’s (D3AS: I knew you’d mention that you won this thing at least once). Although he might not have gotten as far he would have liked in doubles, Wood proved he is one of the strongest players in the nation right now after taking down two of his strongest teammates along the way. Impressive but expected. Congrats to him for bringing the crown back home to the Stags.   ; )> (D3West: he got in another one. A little more subtle this time)

Doubles Final

THE BROWN MAMBA DOES IT AGAIN! I’ve talked enough about Butts and how strong of a season he has had so far, so now it’s only fair I do it for Kotrappa when he makes an appearance on the D3 scene.  I saw the draws and had to do a double take when I saw Kotrappa seeded in doubles and NOT playing in the singles draw. Kotrappa freakin won the 2012 ITA West Regional Singles title and Butts in 2013. How much more can you ask when trying to put a doubles team together? We all know Kotrappa has had his share of injuries – sorry man I feel your pain – but he is just too persistent on finishing 100%. He’s had a heck of a career at CMS with an ITA Regional Singles title and now an Ojai Doubles Title. Boy, does this guy know when to turn his game on at the right time.

The one thing I take away from this tournament is the obvious. CMS is looking strong, very strong. Again having a #3 doubles team from CMS win the title. Having their #4 singles player make the semi’s #3 make the finals and #1 win it all going 3 sets with each other. Paul Settles is doing something right, and it shows year in and year out. Let’s see if the Stags can put together that magical season and possibly even walk away with a Triple Crown.

Butts and Kotrappa definitely deserves a shot at getting into the NCAA’s after their showing this weekend, but there’s always room for discussion when it comes to the NCAA’s. Which brings me to the end of my rant, and to bring in my friend, D3West. Let’s let him enlighten us with his bewildering knowledge of the oh so many options of who the lucky Elite 8 for singles and Final 4 in doubles could end up being this year.

Rankings Discussion

Thank you very much, Mr. Ballou. It has been a pleasure working with you, and I’m looking forward to reading more of your stuff for SCIACs and NCAAs. I can see from the comments on the site that everyone is wondering just how the West region singles and doubles selections will pan out, as we are certainly encountering some extraordinary circumstances.

I’m gonna bring back an old classic to break this thing down, starting with doubles. The results listed are regional results only, since those are the only ones that matter when talking about regional qualifiers. Also, the results in italics are from the Fall and are basically only ever used to break apparent ties:

Doubles

Team A

Wins: #2, #3, #4, #6, #7

Losses: #3, #5 (x2)

Team B

Wins: #3,  #5, #6

Losses: #1, #5, #7, NR

Team C

Wins: #1, #4, #7, #12

Losses: #2, #5, #8, NR

Team D

Wins: #5, #6, #7, #13

Losses: #1, #3, #13

Team E

Wins: #1 (x2), #2, #3, #6, #7

Losses: #2, #4, #7, NR

OK, who are the top 4 teams? Obviously Team A (CMS) gets in with direct wins over everyone else in consideration except Team E (P-P) and no bad losses.

After that, there’s room for debate. I would argue that the next team in should be Team E (P-P). They have wins over all the top teams, and their only really bad loss came at the Ojai, where losses are typically forgiven. They have a lot of direct losses to teams in contention, but that loss to Cal Lu (#2) is from the Fall and won’t matter. The only reason they’re sitting at #5 right now is because their wins over CMS, Whittier, and Cal Lu all came within the last week. If you look at the NCAA rankings (not the ITA rankings), they’re currently sitting at #3. Previously, I thought this team was on the bubble, but now they’re pretty much a lock.

Next is Team C (Whittier). They were on the bubble going into this weekend after losses to Redlands, Cal Lu, and Pomona, but they probably played their way back into the tournament by beating Wood/Dorn in the semifinals. They’ll be going into a rematch with Redlands (their NR loss) in the quarters of the SCIAC, which is a must win for them. Even though they notched a signature victory, another bad loss will probably knock them out with everything being so tight. It should be noted that the committee tends to look favorably on teams that avenge losses – that is, they put more weight on the most recent of two meetings. If the Poets take down the Dawgs, they will almost certainly be in the tournament no matter what happens in the rest of the SCIAC tournament.

After that is Team D (Whitman). Their wins don’t look as good as the other teams right given the current rankings, but Cruz and P-P will be moving up, making their resume look more impressive. Additionally, they don’t have any loss as bad as Teams B, C, and E, and the one bad loss they have, they just avenged. After the NWC tournament, I thought they were pretty much a lock to make the tournament, but looking at these results, I realize that they are still in danger of getting the dreaded 5-spot.

Currently sitting in the #5 hole is Team B (Cal Lu). The Kingsmen were sitting pretty halfway through the season, but they lost their positioning by losing to CMS, P-P, and, most importantly, Chapman. They only have one big win in the last two months (Whittier), and their current resume looks clearly inferior to the rest of these four teams if you take away the win against P-P, which happened in the fall. That being said, I believe the Kingsmen are playing Chapman in the quarters of the SCIAC tournament. If they avenge their loss, it might be enough to push them ahead of Whitman (I don’t think so). If they avenge their loss then beat P-P in the conference semi, they will certainly move into the top 4, most probably knocking Whitman out. P-P’s resume is just looking too solid for them to fall out, and it would be hard to justify dropping Whittier below Whitman. So there you have it, the doubles field will be probably CMS, P-P, Whittier, and Whitman unless Cal Lu can get a little SCIAC magic.

Singles

Now things get really complicated. I think you’ll all agree with me that Wood, Cardenas, Konstantinov, Deuel, and Lipscomb are locks to make the singles tournament. They’ve all played brutal schedules and picked up a couple signature wins along the way that pretty much gaurantee their admission to the field. Now let’s look at the last five contenders for the final three spots. I think it’s important not to take into consideration who plays what position and look at resumes as a whole. Should Marino be punished for playing #3 on the best team in the country? Certainly not. If he’s one of the best 8 players in the West, he should be in. So let’s take a look at this semi-objective comparison of resumes.

Player A

Wins: #19, #23

Losses: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, NR, NR

Player B

Wins: #11, #12, #13, #15, #16, #25

Losses: #12, #9

Player C

Wins: #2, #5, #10, #14, #16, #21

Losses: #1

Player D

Wins: #3, #5, #6, #15

Losses: #1

Player E

Wins: #1, #6, #13 *, #15, #16, #20

Losses: #5, #6, #10, #14

If you just look at the in region results. It’s clear that Player A (Weichert) doesn’t even belong in the conversation. It’s a shame because he has a bunch of great out-of-region wins, but that’s not supposed to matter. It’s also a shame that everything he’s done in terms of leadership doesn’t get taken into consideration, but he simply does not deserve to make the singles tournament this year. I’m sorry. He just doesn’t. He could still get in if he stays at #1 and picks up a good win in the SCIACs or if the selection committee decides to make their selections based on emotional appeals, but if you look at the results, he’s not in the same class as the rest of these guys.

Looking at the results, it’s also clear that the best player on this list is Player C (Marino). To be fair, he picked up three of those six big wins this weekend, so it’s not like his resume was inescapably better than these other guys’ before. That being said, the fact that his resume is the best poses some issues Re: CMS’ lineup. One commenter said that it’s impossible for Butts and Marino to make the tournament without Dorn making the tournament. That’s generally the case, but it’s not a steadfast rule. If you look at the current ITA rankings, both Santa Cruz’ and Whitman’s #2 singles players are ranked ahead of their #1’s, so it’s not unprecedented for a #3 to get in ahead of a #2. Not sure how the committee will handle this one, but Marino definitely deserves to go.

Now, I would argue that the next best resume is Player D simply because he has more signature wins and just one loss. Two of his best wins came in the Fall, but personally, I’m willing to overlook that because of the lack of losses. Again, this poses a bit of an issue because Player D is Skyler Butts. Settles isn’t about to move Dorn below Marino, and he simply isn’t allowed to move him below Marino and Butts. That being said, Butts has the second best resume on this list and should be in.

Then is becomes a battle between Player B (Dorn), and Player E (Yasgoor). These two guys split the season series between each other. Yasgoor has the better win (Wood), albeit in the fall, but he also has more losses. Yasgoor also faces the same problem Marino and Butts face in that he’s playing behind Weichert. All in all, I would say Dorn’s resume is a little bit better at this moment. If the season ended today, that would make things simple because Dorn’s, Marino’s, and Butts’ resumes are all better than Yasgoor’s, so the committee wouldn’t have to worry about a #3 getting in ahead of a #2.

The season is not over yet, however, and Yasgoor could still get in the tournament if Bickham moves him ahead of Weichert and he picks up a win over Cardenas, Wood, or Lipscomb (in the unlikely event that they lose the semi) in the SCIAC tournament. He could also potentially get in with wins over Nichols and Dorn in the SCIAC tournament without getting bumped ahead of Weichert. The intrigue is just too much to handle.

So there you have it. We’re looking at the possibility of something unprecedented in modern DIII tennis: a team could get four players into the NCAA tournament. I thought it was ridiculous when Amherst got three in a couple years ago, but I’m pretty sure no team has gotten four players into nationals in recent memory. Yasgoor is the only one that can f*** it up. GO FRESHMAN GO!