NESCAC UPDATE

Man, I’m pretty jealous of West/Central/ASouth (said no one ever). Amidst the UAA Conference Tournament and all the OJAI bracket madness, I feel like nobody cares about poor old NE. As I’m not one to take this sort of think lightly, I’m here to provide you with a NESCAC update (furious clapping in the background). There are some crucial matches this weekend, and every single seed is still up for grabs. Below you’ll find the current standings, the matches to be played this weekend, and (just for poops and giggles) all the possible seeds that each team could earn. With Tufts’ 5-4 win over Colby today, the Jumbos put themselves back on the right side of that #6 spot, for now…

CURRENT NESCAC STANDINGS

1) Amherst 8-0

2) Midd 5-0

3) Williams 5-2

4) Bowdoin4-3

5) Bates 3-3

6) Tufts 4-5

7) Trinity 3-4

8) Colby 3-4

9) Wesleyan 3-5

10) Conn 0-6

11) Hamilton 0-6

IMPORTANT MATCHES TO BE PLAYED

Bates @ Trinity Ct 4/26 10am

Amherst @ Midd 4/26 11am

Williams @ Bowdoin 4/26 2pm

Bates @ Wesleyan 4/27 10am

Midd @ Tufts 4/27 1pm

Williams @ Colby 4/27 1pm

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

#1 seed: Amherst/Middlebury

 #2 seed: Amherst/Middlebury #2

#3 seed: Williams/Bowdoin/Bates

#4 seed: Williams /Bowdoin/Bates/

#5 seed: Bowdoin/Colby/Bates/Trinity/Tufts

 #6 seed: Bates/Tufts/Trinity/Colby/Wesleyan

#7 or below/Miss NESCACs: Bates/Tufts/Trinity/Colby/Wesleyan/Conn/Hamilton

Well slap my ass and call me Maureen, that’s a lot of scenarios. Instead of writing each one of them out, I’ve decided to save all of us some time by taking a look on a team-by-team basis. Sorry Conn and Hamilton, as you’ve officially been eliminated from NESCACs, you will get no further mentions in this article. I’m going to spend most of this article previewing the two gigantic matches in terms of NCAA implications, but I’ll wrap up with giving the #6 hopefulls a little love.

THE JUGGERNAUTS

Amherst & Midd

The Jeffs have been atop the region all year, so it should come as no surprise that they’re in this position come the end of April. The Panthers have been hot on their heels since the fall. I actually picked Middlebury to win the conference during the winter, and they have the chance to do so tomorrow morning. The battle for the #1 regular season crown and the #1 seed in the tournament will come down to Saturday morning at 11am when Hansen and Midd will play host to Garner and the visiting Jeffs.

Amherst will have the advantage at #1 doubles, Midd at #2, so #3 will be the swing match. I think Amherst has at least a slight edge, and believe the Jeffs will take a 2-1 lead after doubles. This will be Johnston/Lebovitz’s last chance to make any sort of noise for Nationals. As for singles, you can’t go against Fritz at 1; he has been the region’s queen bee and will look to confirm his #1 regional ranking against Johnston. #2 should be a battle, with Campbell locking horns with Dale. Dale has the advantage on paper, but BJ definitely has the talent to take him down. This match could definitely go either way, and might well decide the match. #3 singles pits Campbell and Solimano in a match that Midd has to have. Whether it’s Jones or Campbell at 3, the Panther should be favored over Solimano. Zykov and Smolyar should be another close match at #4. Again, I think Midd needs to take 2 of the 3 matches at #’s 2-4 singles if they have a chance to win. At #5 Yaraghi has the edge over just about anyone, but especially as Mountifield has been struggling. Reindell has quietly been one of the best #6’s in the country. While Frons has his days, I like experienced senior to take down Jack-O. If you’re keeping score (believe me, these guys will be) that leaves us with Amherst pulling out a 5-4 win (or maybe a close 6-3).

THE 2^ND TIER OF LOCKS

Williams & Bowdoin

Both the Ephs and the Polar Bears have clinched a NESCAC spot, but the two will do battle tomorrow in what has become a very important Pool-C match. Whoever wins here will be good and set for the tournament; however, the loser MIGHT see their NCAA bid in jeopardy. There’s a lot of tennis still to be played (including the SCIAC and NESCAC tournaments) but whoever wins this match will have the edge for the #3 seed in the tournament (I believe Williams can still get he 3^rd seed by beating Colby on Sunday, though as you’ll see later, it’s all a bit muddy). Bowdoin’s doubles have been horrific of late, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Ephs come out firing. For competition’s sake, I will say that Bowdoin gets either #1 or #3 doubles and goes into singles play down 2-1. Micheli should have the edge over Bragg, but it could easily go 3-sets. Trinka’s firepower will be a wonderful matchup with Harron’s consistency. #2 is a toss-up. 3^rd singles features King and Schidlovsky, and the senior should have no issue with the reeling chipmunk. Williams has an edge at #4 with Lil’ Weiss, and will need the sophomore to come through over the ever-persistent Lord. Raventos/Wolstencraft will be a big hitting matchup, and normally I’d take Wolsty in a heartbeat. However, Kyle has not been himself since returning from abroad. Instead of going with the Polar Bear, I’m calling #5 as another swing match. 6 singles should be a win for Savage and the Polar Bears, but if Mo is in the lineup again then this match becomes a 3^rd toss up. Overall I think Bowdoin’s doubles leaves them too vulnerable, and I see Williams sending Bowdoin to its second 5-4 defeat in as many matches.

WHO WOULD BE IN AS OF RIGHT THIS VERY SECOND

Bates & Tufts

As of this very second Bates and Tufts would fill out the NESCAC draw. However, this is where we get a bit complicated. As I understand it, the way NESCAC seeding works is:

1) Win/Loss Percentage

2) Head-Head (used in the event of a tie)

3) Results against common in-region teams

4) Results against common non-regional teams

5) NCAA ranking

So as of this very second, Bates and Tufts have the two highest winning percentages, so they are the 5^th and 6^th seeds. HOWEVER, and I capitalize/bold/underline that word to stress its importance, I have heard conflicting reports on how the tiebreaking procedures work. For example, why should Tufts be ahead of Trinity considering they were 3-5 against the same opponents and the Bantams beat the Jumbos? That’s a great question, and personally I don’t’ think it’s fair to give Tufts the edge because they scheduled more matches. A couple different sources have told me that Tufts would win that tiebreaker with Trinity because technically they aren’t tied, Tufts has a better record. ANYWAYS, I could spend all day trying to explain the NESCAC tiebreaking system (just ask D3West). Don’t worry, I will happily explain whatever scenarios occur, but I’ll check the conjecture at the door and move on to previewing the Bates/Tufts matches this weekend.

As I said before, Bates and Tufts control their own destiny. If the Bobcats and Jumbos both win their matches this weekend, both will punch their ticket to Brunswick and NESCACs the following weekend. Bates is taking on a Trinity team that has been a bit of a mystery. I like the Bobcats doubles strength here, especially if they play indoors. Berg/Carpenter should be a grind-fest, but I’ll take Berg hot off his match-clinching win over Bragg. I like Planche to recover from his brutal matchup with Trinka and think he will take out Mandel with ease. Here’s where the Bobcats’ run could end. Trinity should be favored at#3-6 singles, especially considering Bates has been without the services of the best freshman, Chris Ellis (#3). If Bates takes 2/3 doubles, they will need to find their 5^th point somewhere lower in the lineup. Lee and Ordway have shown flashes of brilliance, so my guess is that those are their best shots. Overall, I like Bates to continue the hot play and take down the Bantams, 5-4.

As for Tufts, the Jumbos will need a modern miracle to take down the Panthers on Sunday. Now, the Medford boys do have a lot going for them. Midd has a big match on Saturday, if the Panthers lose to the Jeffs they don’t have anything to play for, yada yada yada. I think that’s horse-hockey. Midd is in the hunt for a #1 seed, and even if they decide to rest their guys, Midd’s 7-10 should still be able to handle the majority of Tufts’ depth (especially without Jacobson). I’m taking Midd to rest a few players, and still come out with the 7-2 win.

WHO STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT

Trinity Ct, Colby, and Wesleyan

Even though Trinity is currently on the outside looking in, they too control their own destiny. Beat the Bobcats tomorrow, and the Bantams will be packing for Maine. However, if the Bantams fail to win, and my math is right, they will be eliminated from post-season play. Similarly, Colby and Wesleyan have put themselves in somewhat precarious positions. Colby’s win over Bates has proven to be the exception more than the rule this year, and they blew a big opportunity after taking a 2-1 doubles lead over the Jumbos earlier today. A win there would’ve set them up nicely for a chance at the #6 or even the #5 seed. Instead, the Mules find themselves needing to beat Williams on Sunday to even be in the tiebreaker conversation. If the Mules win, the Bantams take down the Bobcats, and Bates beats Wesleyan the following day, then Colby would get in over Bates (but below Trinity) as the 6th and final seed. Finally, we come to Wesleyan, my fallen idol. The Cards are still very much alive, but like Colby, they need some help. If Wesleyan beats Bates on Sunday, after Trinity beat Bates on Saturday, compiled with two other Sunday results (Williams beating Colby and Midd beating Tufts) then the Cards would unbelievably sneak in as the #6 seed. WOW!

Ok children, it’s time for NE to go night night. I can’t wait for the wonderful weekend of tennis in store for us, and I urge you all to throw some love my region’s way amidst the S&M of UAA’s and the free-love that is The Ojai. Whatever you do, just use protection.