As the resident historian, I wanted to commend the bloggers for the GOLFY article and also give my brief thoughts since I had the pleasure of seeing all those teams play, some live and some on NCAA video feed. I think D3West nailed this with his pickup game theory. Something clicked for that ’09 Cruz team at the end of the season and they brought a level in doubles that I have never seen in D3. Their singles lineup had some holes, but they were good enough to win 2 of the 6 matches. The top 5 singles players on the 2009 Emory team were amazing and Cruz managed to beat them. They are not the best “team” in the last 5 years, but I’d take them to win against any of the other teams discussed because no one could win a doubles point.
On to a discussion of the current top 15 according to the power rankings…
CMS – It’s going to happen one of these years. I thought it was going to be last year but that wasn’t meant to be. A lot of people think it’s going to be this year and I agree with them. Things happen that keep players out, but my fingers are crossed that we will see the full strength CMS squad at home for NCAAs this year. The reason I don’t think they will lose is that their opponent needs to put together both perfect singles and perfect doubles to beat them and that is very hard to do. I think there are a handful of teams that can take 3 singles matches from the Stags on the right day, but also going up 2-1 against their formidable doubles lineup is really difficult. There is more of a luck factor in doubles and things could get dicey because of that, but on every team’s average day, CMS wins. After having followed D3 for many years now, I’m personally more interested to see what happens in the 3-4 years following their inevitable national title. It’s one thing to talk about them winning the NCAA title, but it’s another thing for their players to actually get it done when they are so close. Only time will tell if this is the year.
Amherst – Amherst is still a mystery to me and this year’s team reminds me a lot of the 2009 and 2010 teams which were good in the regular season but flew a little under the radar heading into the NCAA tournament. As we know, they made the final in both years and it turns out they were incredibly talented. I see a loaded roster for the Jeffs, arguably as good as CMS on paper. Their results have been steady, but not impressive, and I’m interested to see if they have another gear to go to late in the season. Last year, that was not the case, as the Jeffs fell easily to the Stags in the national semis. You generally know what you’re going to get from the UAA teams and even CMS, but I have no idea what to expect from these guys. My instinct tells me they are talented enough to beat CMS, but it also tells me they could lose to Midd this weekend. They have not brought the same level in NCAAs the past two years that they did in the previous three, and because of that it’s hard to know which Amherst is going to show up this year.
Wash U – As soon as Emory lost to Hopkins, I knew Wash U was going to win Indoors and that’s what they did. Although I have a feeling Emory is going to win the UAA, I like Wash U’s outlook in the tournament to make their 7th consecutive Final 4. It’s hard to predict how seeding will play out, but even though Amherst has more talent than the Bears, I think Wash U may pose the greatest threat to CMS despite the score from earlier this season. Wash U usually brings their best doubles when you least expect it (see 2009 UAA Final and 2012 NCAA quarterfinal) and they have enough talent to hang with the Stags. In a tight match, I’m backing a Follmer-coached team. Despite making 6 straight Final 4s, the Bears have lost in the semifinals 5 consecutive times since winning their national title in ’08, and I’m sure it’s a goal to take that next step. I don’t know how they do it, but the Bears never seem to disappoint in the postseason and I expect more of the same this year.
Emory – I’m trying to figure out this year’s Emory team and I haven’t done it. They looked very ordinary at Indoors and in California, but once they got home they’ve put together wins against 4 top 15 teams, including a comfortable revenge win against Johns Hopkins. Emory has some interesting stats surrounding the program that I want to review. Last year was the first time in 13 years that they failed to finish in the top 5. This year’s Indoors loss to Hopkins was the first time in all 14 appearances that they lost in the quarterfinals. That might indicate that they are slipping. But another streak that they kept going is winning 72 consecutive D3 matches at home. That is ridiculous. Emory is my favorite to win the UAA title, but I’m interested to see if they’ve learned to play away from home. This is probably a Final 4 team, but they are vulnerable to a doubles sweep, which is never good. Their singles depth can compete with anyone, but I don’t think they have the team to beat CMS this year.
Trinity (TX) – A lot of people were very high on Trinity coming into this year and they have definitely had a good season. However, in my eyes, you’re not a serious contender until you are beating other serious contenders. They have made the point that they can beat 2nd tier teams consistently and that’s impressive. That said, their best win this year is Case Western. That does not scream Final 4 to me. The Trinity theory this year rested upon Aaron Skinner being an untouchable number 2 and pushing seniors Moreno and Haugen down in the lineup. They have better singles than they’ve ever had. For anyone who has reviewed Trinity’s recent box scores, Skinner is currently playing 4. For the Tigers to deliver a quarterfinal upset, he needs to be great and deliver 2 points. Trinity may be up a spot or two in the rankings this year and everyone knows I respect the program as much as anyone, but for me to believe they’re an elite team, they have to beat an elite team, and that’s something that hasn’t happened in many years.
Johns Hopkins – This is a big post-season for Hopkins because I think this is the best team they’ve ever had. They have struggled with doubles in the past but that doesn’t seem to be an issue this year. With their singles depth, the Jays are a Final 4 contender in my eyes. They proved that they could win big matches this year at Indoors and that will do a lot for their confidence. The monkey got off their back in 2012 when they made the Final 8, but they choked away that quarterfinal and didn’t put up much of a fight in last year’s Sweet 16 against Midd. Getting crushed by Emory a couple weeks ago worries me, but this JHU team should go into NCAAs with a 5 or 6 overall seed, which means they are going to have a winnable quarterfinal. On paper, they are good enough to go to the final this year, but I’m not sure if the mental toughness is there.
Middlebury – This is a big season for Midd. Hansen is now in his third year and has his methods entrenched in the program. His first year they were not very good and his second year they were a little better. They’ve quietly had a very good season this year with their only loss coming to Emory. We will see what they’re made of this weekend in a match against Amherst, which will go a long way in determining NESCAC and NCAA seeding. I see Midd as a team that belongs about 6 or 7 in the country but a win this weekend could convince me that they should be higher. This is a team aching to get back to the dominance that they had in the Schwarz era, but I think they are a long way from that. They are going to almost definitely avoid Hopkins in NCAAs, the team they’ve faced in the last two Sweet 16s. They will likely see Williams or Bowdoin in their region, which are two teams they’ve beaten comfortably and after that it’s all about luck of the draw. A Final 4 this year would be a big step in the right direction for the program.
Carnegie Mellon – This team has had an outstanding season and I think the top of D3 is more interesting when the Tartans are involved. They’ve put themselves in good position heading into the post-season and have also made the point they can consistently beat 2nd tier teams. One thing scares me though. None of the current players have ever played in the NCAA tournament or finished higher than 4th in the UAA. Since their 2010 Elite 8 run, it seems like they have been lurking, but their year-end finishes have been 17, 19 and 19. This team is very talented and possibly one of the top 5 singles teams in the country, but I question how they are going to react in a UAA semifinal against Emory, a potential 3rd place match against Case and in NCAAs. With Williams’ loss, it seems like holding serve and finishing 3rd in UAA should get them an NCAA top seed. A quarterfinal finish would be a great accomplishment after 3 poor years and they have a lot to look forward to since they don’t start any seniors.
Williams – Old me might get on Williams for losing to Skidmore, but despite this being a bad loss, they get a couple year exemption from criticism after winning nationals. Skidmore showed me that this team is not that good and Amherst showed me that they are still growing and have the ability to challenge some top teams. I’ll be interested to see what they do against Bowdoin this weekend because the Polar Bears are a team who seems about their equal. I’m not sure if things will end up this way, but it’s likely that the loser of that match draws Amherst in the NESCAC semis (and possibly NCAAs) and the winner draws Midd. That’s seems to be a big difference. Williams’ win against the Sagehens was a good one to get in the definition of a rebuilding year. If I were an Eph fan, I would not be worried because Coach Greenberg clearly knows how to build a championship team. His freshmen who missed the Elite 8 in 2010 ended up winning nationals a few years later and he has a new batch of talented underclassmen who are showing some toughness early in their careers.
Case Western – I have nothing but admiration for this program and how far they’ve come in the past 5 years. I remember when they were a team that wasn’t even talked about and now all of the country’s best want to schedule them. The Spartans have established a good reputation among the 2nd tier of teams over the past two seasons and although they seem to be a little stronger than last year, they’ve had trouble against talented teams like Trinity, Hopkins and Emory. Given they get by a tricky UAA quarterfinal against Chicago, Case will have two cracks at top 8 opponents to improve their current NCAA standing, which currently has them as a #2 seed. It’s very possible that they will face off with CMU in the UAA 3rd place match and the winner may host a region. The Spartans were so close to making the Elite 8 last year, and I have a feeling this could be the year where they make that next push in the postseason.
Bowdoin – I expected Bowdoin to be 7 or 8 this year but it seems like they will end up 5-6 spots lower than that. They have a lot of important pieces remaining from their 2012 Elite 8 team, but something is missing and I can’t put my finger on it. Last year, before their season was cut short, they were hovering around 6 or 7 in the country and it looked like Conor Smith was the solution to the decade of NESCAC 4th place finishes that had come upon the program. I can’t help but think the hazing incident had a larger effect on the program than meets the eye. Bowdoin has struggled this year and returned to their pre-2012 form, getting beaten up by the likes of Midd and Amherst. I don’t see many scenarios where the Polar Bears make it further than the Sweet 16 this year. This isn’t a bad finish, but I’m sure their players and coaches had higher expectations heading into the season.
Pomona-Pitzer – The Pomona-Pitzer/Belletto split was one of the most puzzling coaching moves I’ve seen, but the Hens seem to doing well without him. One thing that I really liked from P-P this year is that they were the team that pushed CMS in doubles the most when they served for a 2-1 lead. For those that don’t know, P-P was a consistent 3rd tier team 2008-2010, turning in performances of 20-30. In 2011 and 2012 they had breakout years finishing in the heart of the 2nd tier, and after a disappointing finish of 17th last year, they are near the top 12 again. The academic standards remain higher for student-athletes and they can’t recruit as they’d like, but I think of them as a lesser Trinity, winning with good doubles and singles toughness. The Sweet 16 has eluded the Hens in the past several years but if the bracket works out as I expect, they should have a great opportunity to make it this year. P-P needs to take care of business in the SCIAC tournament and all they can ask is to do their best in NCAAs in an unwinnable region.
Whitman – So far this has been a standard Whitman season. They’re a dangerous team that has depth and plays good doubles and they were challenged by some of the best teams in the West region and held their own. This season though, I expect a better finish from the Squirrels. For years, they complained about being stuck in the California NCAA region and having to face uphill battles against Cruz and CMS. In 2011, they were shipped out of California, only to have a disappointing loss against Whitewater. The following season, they went nearly undefeated in the regular season only to be crushed by NCW in an unlucky round of 32 draw. And last year, they lost a heartbreaker against Tyler. Due to their geography, it’s hard to know where Whitman will be placed for NCAAs, but I’d bet a lot that they will have a winnable match in the Round of 32. They need to win that for their own confidence and to have a shot at finishing the year in the top 12, which is where they belong. Their consistency has been commendable but they need to make some noise in the postseason to take the next step.
Gustavus – For anyone who questions it, this team is good. Look at their schedule from this year. They took 3 singles matches from Wash U, had a 2-1 lead with 4 first sets against Emory and pushed Middlebury. The thing that I really like to see is that they are getting better each year since Wilkinson retired. A lot of people told me that Valentini was the right person for the job and I didn’t necessarily believe them, but time has shown this to be true. After a quarterfinal performance in 2009, the Gusties hit rock bottom in 2010 when they failed to win their conference for the first time since almost everyone reading this was born. They took back their conference in 2011 but finished unranked. In 2012, they made the Sweet 16 and finished 25th, and last year they made the Sweet 16 and finished 18th. This year, a finish of 14 or 15 seems likely. Coach Valentini has made it an honor to play for Gustavus again and they will definitely be lurking in the NCAA tournament as a dangerous team.
Kenyon – Nicely put, this team has issues. I was very interested to see how they would respond after having the 2012 national title slip away. They answered their critics and apparently cemented their status as an “elite” team by winning 2013 Indoors in an epic final against Emory who had plagued them for years. I fully expected Kenyon to be a national title contender last season. But since that Indoors, they have been everything but elite. They were nearly upset in the Sweet 16 and went out with a whimper to Wash U in the quarters. This year has been more of the same and they have yet to put a quality win on their resume. On top of their troubles at full strength, they will now play the remainder of the season without their best player. They are on track to fail to make the Elite 8 for only the 2nd time in the last 7 seasons and if they aren’t careful, they can lose in their conference tournament. This season seems like a lost cause for Kenyon. At this point, they need to get out of it with their pride intact and look forward to next year.