State of the Region Address: West Region

With the first regional rankings of the Spring season coming out this week, I think it’s time for the first “State of the Region Address” of the year. After last night’s result, it’s officially “The Year of the 5-4” in the West region. (Ready for some illuminati crap? 5+4+4 = 13, 5+4+5 = 14. It’s the 2013-2014 season. Mind = blown). Anyways, here are the 5-4 results that I can think of just off the top of my head:

Whittier def. Bates 5-4

Redlands def. Cal Lu 5-4

Santa Cruz def. Whittier 5-4

Trinity def. Whitman 5-4

Trinity def. Pomona-Pitzer 5-4

Pomona-Pitzer def. Mary Washington 5-4

Redlands def. Mary Washington 5-4

CMU def. Redlnads 5-4

Bowdoin def. Pomona-Pitzer 5-3 (I’m counting it)

CMU def. Pomona-Pitzer 5-4

Pomona-Pitzer def. Whitman 5-4

Whitman def. Redlands 5-4

UT-Tyler def. Whittier 5-4

Redlands def. UT-Tyler 5-4

Whittier def. RPI 5-4

and, of course, Williams def. Pomona-Pitzer 5-4

There might be a couple more, but that’s RIDICULOUS. Within those, we’ve already had two matched end in 3rd-set tiebreakers (one being the insane 12-10 result from Redlands and Mary Wash), another team win after being down a team match point (last night), and a couple matches when the winning team needed three 3-setters to win the match. Simply put. WHAT A YEAR.

I have to say that things aren’t quite as cheery in these parts as they were last year. Sure, we have the consensus best team in the country, and we have our gutsy Tigers, but we don’t have Cal Lu and Santa Cruz to bolster our top 10 numbers. Whittier and Tyler aren’t quite as dangerous as they were last year, but hey, we still got 9 teams in the top 25. What’s that? No other region has more than 6 teams in the top 25? Hahahaha. Wow. You guys are terrible.

Instead of going team-by-team summary, I’m going to give what the regional rankings should be – team, singles, and doubles – and give a brief discussion of why I put each person or team where I put them. I’ll save the extensive stuff for the end of the year after all the SCIAC fun has played out. To clarify, these are what I think the rankings actually will be, keeping in mind that the committee tends not to move one team ahead of another unless there’s a direct result suggesting it should be done.

Team Rankings

1. CMS – self-explanatory

2. Trinity – wins over P-P, Whitman, Redlands and Cruz. Indirects over everyone else except Tyler, who they will play eventually.

3. Pomona-Pitzer – only one significant in-region win against Whitman, which is enough for now. The result against Williams shows that they’re for real, but they’ll have to prove themselves against Redlands, Cal Lu, and Whittier, which I think they will do.

4. Whitman – wins over Redlands, Cruz, and Whittier (indirects over Tyler and Cal Lu via Redlands).

5. Redlands – Wins over Tyler, Cruz and Cal Lu, and a win over Mary Washington, which doesn’t really help them here, but was huge for the West region as a whole.

6. UT-Tyler – This is where things get a little more complicated. You could make arguments for Tyler, Cruz, and Cal Lu at the #6 spot, but Tyler has the better overall resume with wins over Earlham and Stevens. This normally doesn’t matter, but, all other things being equal, this puts them over the top.

7. UC Santa Cruz – Like I said, I think the out-of-region results will edge Tyler ahead of Cruz for now, though I think Cruz is a little more dangerous because their doubles could click on any given day.

8. Cal Lutheran – You could argue for Whittier here based on their win over Bates. I’m going with Cal Lu on previous ranking and because they seem to be stronger.

9. Whittier – significant out-of-region wins over Bates and RPI. Dominated Oxy. The cliff is coming…

10. George Fox – there’s a big drop-off between the ranked teams and the unranked teams. Look below for discussion on 10-20

11. Cal Tech

12. Pacific University

13. UT-Dallas

14. LeTouneau

15. University of the Ozarks (I don’t understand how these guys are in the West region)

16. Mississippi College (these guys aren’t even West of the Mississippi. How are they in my region!?)

17. Chapman

18. Occidental

19. Whitworth

20. Lewis and Clark

Regarding that 10-20 region, I could be completely off. Those four ASC teams all have wins over each other (Dallas def. Mississippi def. Ozarks def. Letourneau def. Dallas), so I just put the team that was there to begin with at the top and put them all together. Fox beat Tech who beat Oxy. Pacific only has in-conference regional wins, but I believe that’s enough to put them ahead of the ASC teams, and I filled it out with random NWC teams.

Singles

1. Wood (CMS) – Wins every match. Lock it in

2. Deuel (TU) – There’s a nice little triangle between Deuel, Lipscomb, and Cardenas. Deuel gets the nod because he has great Fall results + wins over Malesovas, Weichert, Scandalis. Lock it in.

3. Lipscomb (Redlands) – Beat Deuel, Martinez, Scandalis and Malesovas. Lost to Cardenas. His win over Alla from CMU shows that he’s one of the best in the country. Lock it in.

4. Konstantinov (Whittier) – Wins over Martinez, Scandalis, Malesovas, Cardenas, and Dancu. Also had a great Fall, but not quite as great as Deuel. Lost easily to the two proven players he’s played. You can still lock it in.

5. Cardenas (Cal Lu) – Solid results from the fall, and a great win over Lipscomb. He also has a dominant win over Dancu from Oxy, who is quietly having a great season. Unfortunately, he has a direct loss to Konstantinov. Pretty much lock it in.

6. Weichert (P-P) – His only in-region win is Malesovas, but his other wins suggest that he will get it done in conference play. Should be in.

7. Dorn (CMS) – I’m not a huge fan of comparing #2’s to #1’s, but I think it’s safe to say that Dorn would be making it for sure in this field if he were playing for any other team. That being said, he will have to run the table at #2 in the west region to make the tournament, I think. His fall results will help him. Work left to do.

8. Malesovas (Whitman) – Whitman’s #1 only has one decent in-region win against Scandalis from UCSC. I don’t think that will be enough to get him in unless he gets lucky, but this is where he sits right now, I think. A solid Ojai showing might help him out. Work left to do and no matches in which to do it.

Outside Looking in. These guys are no longer ranked in any order, but these are the only other people I can think of who have any chance of getting in.

9. Dancu (Oxy) – Dancu has just one nice regional victory over Cummins, but his victories over Telkedzheiv and Arguello prove that he has the ability to take advantage of his abundant SCIAC opportunities and play his way into the field.

10. Cummins (Redlands) – Again, it’s hard to compare #2’s to #1’s, but Cummins is currently undefeated in the region at #2 including nice wins over La Cava and Littlejohn. The loss to Dancu hurts him, but if he runs the table, I think he gets in too. That would involve beating Dorn.

11. Martinez (UT-Tyler) – Saved any chance of making it for himself by beating Thompson from Chapman, but he will need a bubble-busting win over Deuel to make the tournament.

12. Scandalis (UCSC) – Scandalis hasn’t done anything so far in the Spring, but he’s playing #1 for a nationally ranked team and his Fall win over Cummins might help a little. He also has more chances than Martinez to earn himself a spot in the field.

13. Thompson (Chapman) – Thompson already has a couple heartbreaking losses to Weichert and Martinez on his resume (12-10 and 14-12 in 10-pointers, respectively), but he clearly has the guns to compete with the best of them. He’ll likely need two big SCIAC wins to make it.

14. Marino (CMS) – How do you go about getting your #3 player into the tournament? Maybe I should ask Amherst about that. If anyone deserves it, it’s Marino, I just don’t know how that would work, logistically.

That I know of, those are the only guys who have any possible shot of making the field right now. The only possible exceptions I can think of is if Littlejohn takes over #1 for Santa Cruz and wins some matches there or if Butts moves up in the lineup for CMS, but I gotta work with the information I have. Feel free to correct me.

Doubles

1. Wood/Dorn (CMS) – regional wins over Whittier, Whitman, Trinity, and Cruz with no losses in the Spring. ‘Nuff said. They’re probably the only team I would consider a lock

2. Treacy/Nichols (Cal Lu) – undefeated at #1 with wins over Trinity and Redlands plus a finals appearance in the Fall. If they can have a decent SCIAC season, they’ll be in.

3. Konstantinov/Schommer (Whittier) – regional wins over Tyler, Cruz, and Whitman plus a solid fall. Lost to CMS. A lot on the line as they enter SCIAC season. Two wins over Cal Lu/P-P/Redlands would get them in.

4. La Cava/Malesovas (Whitman) – regional wins over Pomona, Redlands, Trinity, and Cruz. Losses to Whittier and CMS. Ugly loss to Pacific can be remedied by a win in a rematch. That would probably be enough to get them in as the SCIAC teams proceed to beat each other up.

5. Bello/Weichert (P-P) – they have a win over Trinity, who beat Redlands. They have plenty of time to improve their resume, but the loss to Whitman might kill them.

6. Battaglia/Zuroske (Pacific) – Not sure how an undefeated team with only one good win (Whitman) would factor into this. Even more interesting is to see how a win over CMS’s B team would affect things.

7. Deuel/Moreno (Trinity) – They didn’t have much success over Spring Break, but they did get a tiebreaker win over Redlands. The tiebreaker loss to Bello and Weichert will probably end up costing them.

8. Scandalis/Goetz (Cruz) – A win over Redlands keeps them in the hunt, but they pretty much have to run the table to have any chance at making the field.

9. Cummins/Jones (Redlands) – Only regional win against Tyler, a bunch of losses at #1, and a loss to Cal Lu’s #2 team will probably kill them. If they run the table in the SCIAC (with a win over CMS), they might squeak their way in. Unlikely.

Again, those are the only teams that have any chance of getting in. Tyler, Cruz, and Redlands are pretty much eliminated. I’ve never heard of a #2 doubles team making nationals either. Regardless, predicting doubles is damn near impossible, and I’m sure we’ll see a little bit of madness in the coming weeks.