Weekend Preview: Kenyon Triangle, Mary Washington Quadrangle

It seems like it has been forever since I have discussed anyone outside of Wash U, but that is the nature of the Central region as everyone is still trying to get outside to play on a more consistent basis. Most schedules are front and back loaded with a massive boring lull in the middle. The good news is it should start to pick up pretty quickly and we are only a month or so away from conference tournaments which is always a good time. We might even post a potential national qualifier post or even go as far as predict the bracket. We could do what other sites do and blindly throw teams together in a bracket and not actually consider how selections are made, but I digress. This weekend, Kenyon has a good couple of matches that will get them back to playing solid tennis heading into next week’s Emory Invite. I pulled the short end of the straw and will be covering Kenyon, Stevens, and Swarthmore. This really isn’t even a tri-match as Kenyon plays both and the other two have already played earlier in the season in which Swarthmore won 5-4. Kenyon plays both Stevens and Swarthmore on the same day so it is likely we will see somewhat of a split squad and not them at full strength.

Kenyon vs. Stevens

As I mentioned before, it is going to be hard to predict a lineup for Kenyon as I believe they will not play everyone in both matches, however I think Raz will play 1 singles in one of the matches and Heerboth in the other. Raz’s health still hasn’t been confirmed yet and I can’t imagine Thielke would play him in two matches in a day that really shouldn’t matter. Either way, I think the Heinrich Maneuver will have a tough match up against whomever Kenyon throws out there at the top slot. I feel like a broken record here, but if Kenyon plays their whole lineup, I think this is a 9-0 sweep without much of a sweat. Because I don’t think they will, Stevens will probably steal 2 points near the middle of the lineup. I would guess that Kenyon will play their full doubles lineup and should sweep. Stevens showed some issues with depth as UT-Tyler lost a total of 1 game at 5 and 6 when they played not too long ago and Kenyon should take those spots with ease. I will give a prediction as Kenyon 7-2 losing at 3 and 4 singles, but have no idea who that actually will be.

Kenyon vs. Swarthmore

Same story here, just a different team to discuss. Swarthmore is a better team than Stevens, but not by a whole lot. Kenyon will probably have a stronger lineup than the early match and because of it, I can see the score being a bit worse, but that isn’t saying much about weakness. Swarthmore is a bit deeper and a bit stronger in doubles than Stevens so I think they will have a chance to get a doubles point off of Kenyon, but nothing more than that. After looking up and down their schedule, it’s tough to get a gauge at how good or not so good Swarthmore really is. They have lost 4 straight all to ranked teams. The 8-1 loss to Skidmore stands out as a pretty bad loss as it wasn’t terribly close and Loutsenko didn’t even play singles. Collard beat Sherpa in 3, so I would say if Loutsenko plays in singles, its a glaring 9-0 loss to a team that is at the bottom of the rankings. No one on the team currently has a record better than .500 which may be a testament to the schedule they’ve played, but it’s not like Kenyon is going to make it any easier on them. I am going to go with Kenyon winning this match 8-1.

So in summary, I wrote a few words and basically said nothing. Kenyon is simply better than both of these teams and the talent alone will make these two comfortable wins. They also play Haverford the following day which will be another chance for them to get some other players into the lineup. It is a good weekend to be on the road, get used to traveling again, watch movies (apparently Zoolander was a spring break fav of the Lords), and compete a bit to prepare for the big weekend next week. They’ve got a tough road with Middlebury, Depauw, and Emory (which team doesn’t belong here?) and it will be interesting to see how they do. I think if they can come away from the Emory Invite with a 2-1 record, it would be a huge success, but I honestly don’t see if happening. I hope it does, but Emory on their own courts will be a tall task and Middlebury is still in the young season to have any idea how good they probably are.

D3AS Note – I have nothing to add about either of these two matches because frankly, they will be blowouts.

ASouth’s Mary Washington Weekend Preview

Now this is the preview that you guys all wanted to read, am i right?! We don’t take breaks in the Division III Tennis world.  Literally right after writing CMU and Mary Washington Spring Break recaps, these two teams are at it again this weekend along with a few familiar faces that we’ve already seen this season.  We’ve got a great weekend ahead of us and other than Amherst/CMS, Mary Washington may be the place to be this weekend.  I repeat, may be the place to be.  Just throwing it out there.  Here’s the schedule for this weekend:

Friday, March 21

Bates vs. Johns Hopkins, 4 PM ET

Saturday, March 22

Bates @ Mary Washington, 12 PM ET

Hopkins vs. Carnegie Mellon, 12 PM ET

Sunday, March 23

Carnegie Mellon @ Mary Washington, 10AM ET

As you can see above, some pretty good matches that we can look forward to this weekend over in Fredericksburg, including three of the top 4 teams in my region.  This is a get together that basically happens every year, but has not brought the fireworks as CMU and UMW haven’t been up to par lately.  That has changed this year and we should definitely get some great matches this weekend.  It’s also really awesome to get a Northeast team in here so the ASouth can beat up on them.  Gotta love beating up on the new guy’s region.  I’ve got a few matches to get through and unfortunately I haven’t done any Thursday drinking, so this one is going to be a tough one to write.  Let’s take the bull by the horns and get straight to the first match.

NR Bates vs. #5 Johns Hopkins

As always, rankings are based on our own power rankings.  We just like to be rewarded for our work by mentioning our work in our work.  Bates versus Hopkins will most likely be our least favorite match of the weekend.  Bates is really reeling after losing to Colby (Colby?) and they need a huge win to get back into any conversation whatsoever.  Like, even a conversation I have with the local grocer on whether or not something is organic.  That’s how far they are out of contention right now.  (OH and by the way, shoutout to Bates for not even posting a boxscore of that Colby match).  Unfortunately for Bates, they’ll run into a rested Hopkins team that probably presents them one of their better chances at doing anything this year.  That’s already not a good start.  The problem with Bates this year has basically been everything.  They have notoriously little depth, which we all knew, but now we can’t even count on any spots in their lineup.  I really don’t want to go into an in-depth preview here because this is going to be the story of the match.  Bates has “strengths” at #1 doubles and potentially #1 and #2 singles.  I have 0 faith in the rest of the guys at this point in time.  Well, the #1 Bates doubles team will go out and play Buxbaum/Walsh.  Remember, that team is a ITA regional winner, a team that’s already beaten Emory, Amherst, and a slew of others at nationals this year.  No way I’m going against them when on the other side is a team that lost to Pomona’s #1 team.  The other two matches pit one of the best #2’s in Brown/Lim against a weak #2 team, which I will obviously take Hop.  Same with #3.

In singles, this one is going to be more of the same.  Hopkins has way way way too much depth for Bates and they should be able to take 3-6 with relative ease depending on their lineup.  The thing to watch for all of you Hopkins fans is how the top of the lineup is set up and where Hwang and Brown stack up.  Brown has been trying to find his game recently and notched a solid win at W&L but that’s nothing to write home about.  If they flip-flop and play him at #2, Planche/Brown becomes an interesting test match for Tanner.  However, I think they play Hwang here.  Personally, I think the only place where Bates can win is at #2 singles.  So, I’ll take Planche over Hwang and Hopkins everywhere else for an 8-1 victory for the Jays.

NR Bates @ #17 Mary Washington

God has forsaken me into writing two straight previews on Bates.  I guess eating meat last Friday for Lent was a bad thing.  I’ve already mentioned the state of the Bates team in that last preview.  Mary Washington and Bates are two programs that are going in the opposite direction right now.  Thing is, this match may be closer than people think.  Do I think this will be an upset? No, I’m not that crazy.  In doubles, this one will be a tight.  There is a high potential that these two teams will split the bottom two spots.  I especially like the Gilmore/Griffin at #3, as you guys know already.  I think that team has gotten better and they’ll take it to a relatively weak Bates #2 team.  At #3 is a bit of a toss-up because Blahkin/L-J haven’t necessarily been as good as I think they should be.  Despite my conscious telling me no, I’m gonna go with the Bates team at #3 even though they are on the road and playing a more talented team.  #1 is the match to watch.  The team of Carey/Charles has been up and down this year, as they lost handily to the PP team, but have since beaten Redlands and W&L pretty handily.  Those are two good doubles teams that those two teams throw out there.  I like the improvement that they’ve shown this year and will take them over a Bates team that may or may not be demoralized right now.  Heading into singles, it’s 2-1 UMW.

Singles should be interesting because Mary Washington’s weaknesses line up with Bates’s strengths.  This is a match where I think Berg can actually have the advantage against Carey.  Bates really needs him to win to be anywhere near the 5 points.  He’ll get it done here as he tries to snap his season-long funk.  At #2 there is a clear advantage for Bates.  Stratton Gilmore hasn’t necessarily been amazing at that spot and he’s still going to have his hiccups there.  Planche is a veteran player who’s had recent good results and will take this one.  For Mary Washington, I think the spots they should definitely take are at #3, #5, and #6.  Blahkin has either lost once or 0 times all year, Griffin is playing very well at the bottom, and Charles at #3 is his natural position.  UMW for all three of those matches.  Lastly at #4 is sometimes shaky L-J, but he’s won all of his matches this year against good competition.  They’ve all been close, but wins are wins and I’m going with him.  UMW takes the bottom four singles spots and claims this match by the score of 6-3.

#8 Carnegie Mellon @ #17 Mary Washington

Yes, I know I skipped Hopkins vs. CMU.  Calm your nerves, because that’s the match of the weekend and will go LAST. Because you know, last but not least.  I love clichés.  I took a look back into the archives for this UMW/CMU matchup and was actually pretty surprised.  Since 2008, UMW has never beaten CMU whether it be on their own courts or CMU’s.  Of the five losses, three of them were 5-4 victories.  Pretty crazy how the matches can be so close yet the Tartans seem to always come out on top.  I usually don’t go against history and I certainly won’t here given the momentum that the Tartans have right now.  Normally, some people might be concerned because CMU has a match that will go down to the wire against Hopkins the day before.  This team has proven that that probably won’t be an issue as they’ve already been through a lot worse.  Fatigue should play little to no factor for this match.  One thing that may play a factor is the slow courts at Fredericksburg (for the other matches as well).  Starting with doubles as always, this is where UMW can really surprise the Tartans.  They have a solid #2 and #3 team and we saw on Spring Break that CMU is vulnerable to a sweep at any moment.  I don’t think the Eagles have the talent to pull this off.  Something inside me wants to say that CMU will flip their doubles teams around somehow after a weak performance on Spring Break, but that would be with only a week of practice.  I’ll stick with the regular.  #1 immediately becomes a swing match for any CMU match moving forward.  The team of Duncan/H-S is a strong one that struggled at the end of break.  When fresh, they are a force to be reckoned with.  I think they will be able to take advantage of the weaker serving of Carey/Charles and win this one in 8-4 fashion.  At the bottom two spots, these are real wild cards.  The talent level at this point seems to be the same for doubles.  UMW should have the edge at #2 with the Gilmore/Griffin team.  The #3 team from CMU surprised us randomly, but can they take down an established team in Blahkin/L-J?  I say on this day, they do.  2-1 CMU into singles.

With a lead over a top 20 team for the first time since Bowdoin, CMU will smell the blood and put this one away quickly in singles.  They have the upper hand at #1 by a longshot, which I expect to be a quick one.  We might even see Heaney-Secord there if Coach Girard plays the regional matchups card.  Either way, CMU should have the advantage at both spots against a weak top of the UMW squad.  #3 will be a nice match to watch.  Contrasting styles between the two players (Duncan and Charles) will make for an interesting matchup.  I say Duncan powers his way through the grinder and gets to the net enough to put it away.  At 4-6, we’ll see those freshmen again who I now have utmost confidence in.  D3West mentioned something to me about the “Hansen method” of being able to play freshmen lower than where they actually should be to boost their confidence.  Right now, that seems to be happening at CMU.  I like the advantage they have at all of those spots and they can take a singles sweep.  Before you Eagles fans protest, this CMU team took 4 singles from PP, Redlands, and Bowdoin, 5 singles from GAC, and 3 from Wash U.  I’m going with CMU at all singles spots for an 8-1 victory.

#5 Johns Hopkins vs. #8 Carnegie Mellon – Match of the Week

Yes! The match I’ve been waiting to cover since Fall ITA’s.  These two teams are heated rivals, especially now with the newfound “confidence” of the Hopkins team.  They’ve had a storied history, one where CMU and Hopkins have split matches but Hopkins usually comes out on top.  Based on ranking, these two teams should be pretty close with Hopkins as the slight favorite.  I agree with those rankings (well, we did make them after all).  Since this is an ASouth matchup, it makes sense for me to go line by line and give you my projected winners.  Let me first say that I expect this one to go down to the wire.  These two teams are close in talent and this one may come down to the more mentally tough team.  You’ll see my prediction later.

Line #1 – Buxbaum/Walsh (JHU) vs. Duncan/Heaney-Secord (CMU)

As always, this is a heavily weighted match.  Like I said in the Hopkins/Bates preview, Buxbaum and Walsh are a team that no one wants to play right now.  But, would anyone really want to play a rested Duncan/H-S?  Probably not.  Fact of the matter is, this is the match to have for the Tartans.  They seem to play with a lot of pressure on the #1 team, which is a recipe for disaster eventually.  At least these two guys are there veteran players.  This one will be closer than the actual doubles skill says it should be, but I have to go with Hopkins at this spot.  Let’s make it 8-6 where CMU has a chance to take it.

Line #2 – Brown/Lim (JHU) vs. Beisswanger/Kumar (CMU)

This is by far the biggest mismatch of the dual match.  We’re taking a team that played #1 last year for a top 10 team against a team that was basically a #3 team last year for a #19 team.  That’s a crazy switch for me and I am strongly behind Brown and Lim here.  With their chemistry, improved net play, and tenacious attitudes, I’ve got to go with the juniors.  Hopkins by a score of 8-2.

Line #3 – Joachim/Garcia vs. Okuda/Kirkov

Sigh.  Before I can pick the CMU doubles teams, they’re going to have to prove me wrong.  This looks to be another matchup that could get ugly pretty quickly.  I assume since Okuda is a doubles specialist he has fairly decent hands at net, but I am unsure about the rest of his game.  The CMU team has already lost to Redlands, Wash U, PP, and GAC.  They’ve only beaten Bowdoin, who might have the weakest #3 team in the top 20 right now.  Meanwhile, they’re going up against a great volleyer in Joachim and a strong baseliner with savvy net play in Garcia.  I don’t see Hopkins losing this one either.  8-4, Hopkins and they complete a sweep.

Singles Line #1 – Buxbaum (JHU) vs. Alla (CMU)

Once again, CMU will be trying to dig their way out of a hole against a top 5 team.  This time, its Hopkins on the other side.  Emotions will be high for this one, so I’m hoping CMU pulls one of the doubles matches so this one can come down to the wire.  Alla at #1 presents the Tartans way of starting to fight back.  Again, he is my favorite moving forward in almost all matches and there is no reason to doubt him here against Buxbaum.  Buxbaum is a good player, no doubt, but as of right now he has only shown us that he is an average or above average one.  Alla is on a hot streak and I think he takes this one in straights with his great groundstrokes.

Singles Line #2 – Hwang (JHU) vs. Heaney-Secord (CMU) – Asouth’s Impact Singles Match

This match is going to set the tone for the rest of the team, on both sides.  Heaney-Secord has played the last few matches with a little doubt in his mind.  Hwang is a newcomer at #2 so he will have to play his way into the prediction’s good graces.  Both are aggressive baseliners who will have some pretty powerhouse rallies throughout the match.  On the Mary Washington courts, I like the guy that is a bit more consistent.  To me, that player is Hwang.  He is solid from both sides of the court and despite hitting a flatter ball, can really rally with the best of them.  I’ll take Hwang in three monster sets.  Watch out if Christian gets hot, however.

Singles Line #3 – Brown (JHU) vs. Duncan (CMU)

This is another potential swing match.  Both of these guys have missed expectations so far in singles play.  Both of these guys are fiery competitors.  They have different game styles as Brown is wall in the backcourt as Duncan tries to really force the issue.  Based on recent play, I’m going to give the slight edge to Tanner because I think he can get enough balls back to just out rally Duncan. I’m taking Brown in this one, 7-6 7-5.

Singles Line #4 – Dubin (JHU) vs. Kirkov (CMU)

These are some really awesome matches that I would love to watch.  This match pits Dubin, who brings a huge serve and a big ground stroke game, against a player who doesn’t really have all the flair but definitely has the solidity.   Not to mention this is a match against two freshmen counterparts.  All the stars are aligning and this will be a great one.  I think Dubin will struggle a bit on the slow courts of Mary Wash which should play well for CMU.  Going with Kirkov and his hot streak here, 6-4, 6-3.

Singles Line #5 – Lim (JHU) vs. Zheng (CMU)

Holy shit.  This is another potentially action-packed match that has the fiery Lim against Zheng, the freshman from CMU.  Both guys are good at what they do.  Lim has that big forehand, a pesky net game, and a sneaky serve.  Zheng, meanwhile, is calm and collected on the court.  I say this one has to go three sets.  Right now, I’m riding the wave of CMU freshmen and I think Zheng’s three set experience gives him the edge here over the potentially streaky Lim.  Much like the #2 match, this has the possibility of going the total other direction for the streaky player.  Taking Zheng in three.

Singles Line #6 – Weissler (JHU) vs. Wadwani (CMU)

Welcome to the big leagues, kids.  This dual match is chock full of great matchups.  Both of these guys had questions moving into the year, and I didn’t even project Weissler to crack the Hopkins lineup.  However, he’s put in his work and is looking to fight his way through singles wins at the bottom.  Thing is, so is the CMU freshman, Wadwani.  I have a hunch that this one is going to be one of those matches where we watch the Twitter feed for a good 15 minutes before we get a two game update.  Thank god for CMU Twitter.  It’s risky, but I like the CMU freshman here at this spot as well.  It will absolutely take three sets or a close two setter.  But I like the toughness this team has shown.  Despite the Wadwani win at #6, CMU still goes down 5-4 due to a doubles sweep.